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Islamic state as a factor in the geopolitical transformation of the Middle East in the modern period
Material posted: Publication date: 15-11-2015
The paper discusses issues related to the emergence of a new military-political actor in the Middle East - a terrorist organization "Islamic State". Presented in detail the stages of development groups, describes the main milestones of its activities. Disclosed interests and role in the Syrian crisis of the leading countries of the world, such as Russia and the US, as well as regional countries (Iran, Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia). We analyze the military-political situation in the Middle East at the moment 2015, the impact of developments in the security of the Russian Federation and the Commonwealth of Independent States.

Regional safety and stability have great value for realisation paramount strategic, political-military and economic tasks of the Russian Federation in the Near East. Owing to the geopolitical position, presence of some the large states with incoincident interests, active influence of extraregional forces this region throughout decades was one of the most restless regions of the world.

The geopolitical characteristic of region of the Near East. In the light of occurring events studying of the East for domestic experts is one of the main tasks. The outstanding military figure and scientific, well-known orientalist A.E.Snesarev (1865-1937) in the works, devoted is to subjects, marked: the Near East from the XIX-th century beginning occupies general attention, as including approach territories to India. [1]

Here some decades the Near East is one of the most astable regions of the world who became a terrorism and extremism citadel. Their consequences is not only terror and instability in the states, but also attempts to transform the whole region of the world with the further destabilization of the next regions. Besides it is necessary to notice that the Near East is one of the most militarised regions of the world. On key indicators of militarization and military expenses in absolute calculation, the countries of the given region are leaders among developing countries, and on separate indicators advance and the developed countries. Such position speaks a combination of two factors:

  1. High konfliktogennost;
  2. Presence of large resources of hydrocarbonic raw materials which involve interests of world powers.

The high potential konfliktogennosti region develops in the area of the arabo-Israeli opposition, presence of territorial disputes between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey, nereshennosti a Kurdish question, and also presence of military bases of the USA.

Process of formation of a geopolitical card of region of the Near East throughout only XX and partially included XXI centuries not only occurrence of the new independent states, but also changes in their form of government the state. In the majority of the states of the given region the power system has developed by the time of independence reception, however from this rule there was variety of exceptions, for example when the monarchy was replaced with republic as a result of revolution or revolution (Egypt - 1953, Iraq - 1958, Iran - 1979). As a whole for the Arabian republics, except for Lebanon, presence of the steady authoritative one-party modes headed by influential and charismatic leaders which usually combine functions of the state and party head is characteristic: Saddam Hussein in Iraq (1979 - 2003), Hosny Mubarak in Egypt (1981 - 2011) . The most indicative example similar «monarchic republic» is Syria where in 2000 Bashar Asad has replaced on a presidential post of the father Hafeza Asada four times re-elected throughout 1971-2000 As to monarchy, regional specificity consists that the special role here belongs to not so much monarch, how many to all ruling family or a clan. In some Arabian monarchy ruling family or related clans retain power in a current of very long time and even centuries (in Bahrain - since 1782, in Qatar - since 1822) . In so-called cold war when there was an opposition between two systems of the USSR and the USA, Arabian «revolutionary democracies» both in the Near East, and in the North Africa were guided by the USSR while the monarchic states, Israel and Turkey, supported the USA. In 1990th years. Split on the westernized and antiwestern states has gradually lost the importance. However and to this day in region there are two antiwestern modes - Syria and Iran. Occurrence of new antiwestern modes became also not an exception in connection with possibility of islamization of the secular states (as for example it has almost occurred in Egypt as a result of coming to power of "Brothers of Moslems» in the name of president A.Mursi, after H.Mubaraka's displacement). [2]

The Near East is a cradle of three large world religions: Islam, Christianity and a Judaism. However now specificity consists in it konfessionalnoj uniformity: Islam professes the overwhelming majority of the population of all states of region, except for Israel.

Arisen in territory of modern Saudi Arabia in the beginning of VII century, Islam became the base of the Arabian statehood, therefore it is no wonder that from all regions of the world Near and Middle East shows the greatest degree of interdependence of religion and a policy. Here all spectrum of possible relations of religion and the state is presented: on Near and Middle East adjoin secular (Syria and Turkey) and the theocratic states (Saudi Arabia and Iran); in variety of the Arabian countries and Israel at preservation of secular character of the power the religion formally is not separated from the state. The political deal of inside separately taken country is quite often defined by relations between konfessionalnymi groups, first of all between representatives of two leading currents in Islam - sunnitami and Shiits. Shiits make the population most part only in three states Near and Middle East - Iran (80 %), Iraq (60 %) and in Bahrain (about 60 %), however in some countries (Lebanon, Yemen, Sadovsky Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, etc.) are available large Shiit communities. The coexistence Shiit and sunnitskogo within the limits of one state quite often conducts the population to such internal political contradictions which can be observed now in Yemen, Bahrain, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. These contradictions at times lead to armed opposition on religious soil as for example there is it now in Jmene, Syria and Iraq that is reflected as on state, and regional stability and safety of the Near East. [3]

As to economic specificity of region it is defined, first of all, its unique neftenosnostju: approximately 56 % of world oil recovery here come true. Leading manufacturers of oil are Saudi Arabia (in its territory places about 20 % of the reconnoitered oil) Iran, Iraq and Kuwait. For the states concerning type of petroexporters (the Arabian monarchy), low level of a diversification of economy, high gross national product and the income per capita (Qatar occupies on this indicator 1 place in the world) is characteristic. In turn, oil is not only the blessing, but also konfliktoobrazujushchim the factor in region:

First, presence of so rich resources throughout XX-XXI did centuries Near and Middle East by object of expansion of great powers (Great Britain, France, Russia, after the USA),

Secondly, oil stocks are distributed between the region states extremely non-uniformly.

Undoubtedly, special economic and strategic importance is given by Suez canal connecting Ñðåäèçåìíîå Êðàñíîå ìîðÿ . It is the shortest waterway between Èíäèéñêèì  ocean and water area Ñðåäèçåìíîãî  seas Àòëàíòè÷åñêîãî  ocean. Using an alternative route which is longer on 8 thousand in km, the sailing charter should bend around Africa. Before opening of the channel transportation came true by unloading of courts and overland transportation between Mediterranean and Red by seas.

It is impossible to underestimate value of Suez canal as sea transport is considered the cheapest means of transportation of cargoes. Therefore about 80 % from world trade volume it is transported on waterways. Use of Suez canal allows to reduce distance and time of water routes, and also to reduce to a minimum working costs for courts which transport cargoes from Europe to Asia and Northeast Africa. This unique in own way navigating way serves about the one fifth unit of all world transportations of oil and about one tenth from volume of all world trading transportations.

It is possible to allocate a number of factors of historical, political, religious, social, ethnic, geographical and economic character which complicate both intergovernmental relations, and internal political situation in the separate countries and in region as a whole. [4]

Historical last, namely the colonial past of the Near East (the large quantity of territorial disputes and claims remained not settled after disintegration of Ottoman empire and finding of independence by mandated territories and protectorates; a problem of statehood of Kurds and creation of the Arabian state in Palestin).

Rather political "youth" of the states and struggle for regional leadership. In the Near East actively there is a process of allocation of the regional leader at too considerable quantity of ambitious modes. During the different periods for this status applied and apply as theocratic (Saudi Arabia, Iran), and secular (Syria, Egypt, Turkey) the states.

Geopolitical interests of large powers and their influence in regional processes (in cold war the Near East has appeared one is split into two camps, under the influence of the USSR, another - the USA. After the termination of cold war of the USA began to dominate considerably in this region that has led to an out-of-balance, destabilization, strengthening of the international terrorism, displacement of some modes.

Konfessionalnaja diversity of region at a dominating role of Islam sunnitskogo sense and leading to opposition sunitov and Shiits in a number of the countries of region of the Near East.

Security problem water resources and distributions of waters of the transboundary rivers that creates additional complexity and a tension in the relationship of Syria and Israel (the river Jordan), Syria and Turkey (the river the Tiger and Euphrates).

Demographic situation (for region the high share of children (20-40 % in the various states) and youth in age structure of the population is characteristic that leads nevostrebovannosti a significant amount of young men which become an ideal material for recruitment in the extremist and terrorist organisations.

Special influence on a security status and stability of the separate countries and region as a whole renders activity of terrorist groupings. For today in the Near East the organisations and structures which throw calls to the whole state modes in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya operate: "al Kaide" and its versions, «the Islamic State», "Dzhabhat-an-Nusra", "Brothers-Moslems" (operate more than in 50 countries of the world), «the Popular front of clearing of Palestin","Islamic jihad», "Hamas", «Hizb-ut-Tahrir al-Islami.

As well as expected in the research activity in beginning HH century the Russian scientist A.E.Snesarev, new danger (terrorism - aggressive force) has come from the East. To the XXI-st century beginning in the world system threat of the global terrorism mainly shown in an appearance radical islamizma was distinctly designated. From all versions of terrorist movements (national, political and others) «much more dangerous there was a terrorism which eats religionism for at it is not present either logicians, or pity, abilities to make concessions». [5]

The basic countries which are the leading political-military players who are defining and exerting influence a condition of a situation in the Near East, Egypt, Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Syria (as the state prior to the beginning of opposition), Qatar (which despite small territory has the big financial resources for realisation of certain geopolitical interests in region), Iran (the state of Middle East having the interests in the Near East) are.

The given region is marked by the highest conflictness. After the Second World War here there was a considerable quantity of military conflicts in the area of the arabo-Israeli opposition, war of Egypt to Libya, national-liberation movements on an exit from under influences of France, Great Britain, the USA. Now at the massed kind here there are the most actual "new" threats of the international safety - terrorism and distribution of a weapon of mass destruction. Here the biggest operations of the international intervention to Iraq and Libya were performed.

Military bases of the USA are concentrated to the Near East: forward command point in Qatar, airdromes in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, large base in Kuwait, a headquarters of 5th fleet of Naval Forces of the USA and command point of the Air Forces in Bahrain, bases in Oman, base of the Air Forces to Turkey, and also constant presence of the ships of Naval Forces of the USA at Persian gulf, Indian ocean, Red sea and Mediterranean sea.

Now IGIL is one of the key factors defining political-military conditions on Near and Middle East. IGIL today is the protostate, with territory in 50-70 thousand on sq. km. With the population in 6-8 million persons. The government purpose is certainly transformation of this not recognised halifata in the high-grade state. Such outcome of events will mean occurrence of the new actor on Near and Middle East which influence will be beyond region. It in turn will make certain impact on a regional geopolitical landscape.

The strategic kernel of YOKES as military structure, by the most disturbing calculations, does not exceed 50 thousand persons. However it is professionals of jihad and their number during the critical moments (for example, during approach of 2014) could grow on one thousand person in a month at the expense of inflow of volunteers of different degree of readiness. The semifantastic figure of army of YOKES in 200 thousand persons which is sounded scaredly by the Iraq officials, can be collected only at the expense of local population in the conditions of total mobilisation. Besides, this figure (50 thousand persons) includes all subdivisions of YOKES on Syrian and Iraq TVD. Thus the considerable unit of these forces in territory of Syria probably also does not participate in battles, and supports the rests of Iraq in pressure. Therefore it is very difficult to estimate, how many forces and means of extremists are on the most intensive for today Syrian TVD.

Since 2015 scales and intensity of military operations IGIL steadily grew. Insurgents IGIL control to 30 % of territory of Iraq, having proclaimed in the grasped territory of provinces of Anbar, Najnava and Salah-ed-dynes «Islamic halifat». In turn, national armed forces of Iraq in interaction with law enforcement bodies continue to conduct counterterrorism operations on order restoration in the given provinces. At the same time transition to long item battles is observed. Considerable successes IGIL has achieved successes in east and southern unit of the Syrian Arabian Republic. As a result of approach almost considerable unit of territory of this country, namely provinces of Deraa, Kunejtra and Idlib has been grasped. Difficult conditions have developed in east provinces of Rakka, Haseke and Dejr-ez-Zor which are under control IGIL.

Formation of the organisation of YOKES, structure, structure and ideology of the organisation. Grouping occurrence «the Islamic state of Iraq and Levant» (IGIL), the territory which have taken over the control of a unit of Syria and Iraq, certainly, became a new stage in the history of the extremist groups operating in the Near East.

Being first usual and almost nothing remarkable subdivision "al Kaide" in territory of Iraq, YOKES waged classical terrorist war, making mass acts of terrorism against the Shiit population of Iraq, the governmental forces and objects.

Sources of YOKES go back to 80th years of the XX-th century when the authorities of the United States have entered into the private agreement with the Afghani Mojaheds. The United States from its part guaranteed it all-round support in their struggle against the USSR. It is obvious that inhabitants of Afghanistan and volunteers arriving there and mercenaries from various regions had different purposes. The political management of Washington in turn simply used such coincidence of interests in the purposes as Afghanistan could not represent serious threat for the United States.

After an end of the war, movement of Mojaheds has not found of itself of application, especially foreigners, many of which, became derelicts in the own countries. It is paradoxical, but the same states which have put a maximum of efforts for preparation of the wards, began to pursue them now strenuously. It is remarkable that, actually, the same repeats and now - this time with insurgents who are at war in Syria.

After a withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan in 1989 to the power those who made in due time a basis for struggle against the USSR come. As a result, by 1996 the power in Afghanistan passes to movement "Taliban". The ideology which Talibs adhered, was closest to official religion of Saudi Arabia. Organisation "Taliban" kernel was made by the refugees-students who have got education at religious schools in Pakistan. Schools have been created on system of religious sights of Saudi Arabia and declared ideas which were stated by Ibn Abdel-Vahhab. It was the person rather severe and rigid, preaching nonflexible, at times unduly radical approaches, in particular: requirements of closing of the person at women whereas it is not obligatory; rigid punishments even for small offences etc. [6]

Of course, it is impossible to name this ideology extremist, however adherents of the given ideological current often apply for exclusiveness and correctness. And it, in turn, creates preconditions for radikalizatsii which can finish to the irreconcilable relation to all who adheres to "wrong" sights, up to their charge in «disbelief or renegation», in a word to chauvinism.

On September, 11th, 2001 in New York there is an attack on World trade centre of what at once accuse the new opponent for all world community - terrorist organisation "al Kaide". On this soil, namely because of support of al Kaide by a mode of Talibs and refusal of delivery Osama bin Laden, the USA begin a counterterrorism operation and enter the troops into Afghanistan. In 2001 of subdivision of Forces of special operations of the USA and CIA, together with the Afghani troops and with support of the Air Forces of the USA less than for three months have dethroned a mode of Talibs, having had thus insignificant losses. [7]

Many of fighters got over in other regions, and after Saddam Hussein's overthrow in 2003 the unit has appeared in Iraq where as a result of the formed vacuum of the power there were perfect conditions for creation of new groups. Organisation IGI which subsequently has outgrown in IGIL became one of them also. Thus first the grouping was considered as regional branch "al Kaide" and was headed by Musabom az-Zarkavi.

Basic changes have occurred in 2010 when let out of the American prisons in Iraq the former military men of an average command link of army of Saddam Hussein have joined to IGI. The former military men have taken grouping in hand. The begun war in Syria has allowed them to lay down the new aims and problems for organisation IGIL and to reformat its structure. However in this war all top management IGIL was lost. Approximately from forty heads, financiers, high-ranking coherent and moderators of the Iraq terrorist network in live remains only eight. Two key leaders - Abu the Lobster al-Bagdadi and Abu Ajjub al-Masri have been killed also.

In 2010 Abu Bakr Al-Bagdadi became the leader of grouping.

The grouping had for the first time accurately formulated purpose which has allowed to develop new religious war.

Clearness and clearness of ideology, and also resolute actions of a new management have immediately resulted in. In June, 2014 IGIL has definitively broken link with "al Kaide". Abu Bakr al-Bagdadi has proclaimed creation new halifata. Then "al Kaide" otkrestilas from the once branches in territory of Iraq also has started to operate separately. War in Syria IGIL has moved not so much against B.Asada's mode, how many for building of the state.

Accurately to define ideology of extremist grouping of YOKES, it is necessary to make definition of concept Islamic fundamentalism. It «not that other, as the original answer to huge social and cultural changes... Perceived as threat of shaking and destruction of Islamic identity or suppression of this indentichnosti». At the same time, it - «a current demanding return to sources of Islam, first of all to the Koran, and an assumption of free interpretation of positions of Sheriyat (excepting dogmas, ritual, koranicheskie interdictions)». [8]

Fundamentalists - simultaneously modernizatory and ohraniteli Islam. They do not deny the western technologies, but at the same time do not accept the western culture and social norms.

It is the form of radical Islam connected with belief that for escalating of military power devout Moslems should refuse all that is connected with «the western cultural wealth the western way of life». It is necessary to return to sources, to Islam "base", it is exact in such kind what it was preached by prophet Mohammed. However after tragical destruction of fourth and last just Caliph, the cousin and the son-in-law of prophet Ali ben Abu of Talib Abul Hasana is scarlet-murtada, there was a split in Islam. It has led to creation concerning independent communities: Shiits and sunnitov which, however, remained in limits halifata and obeyed one governor - to the Caliph. [9]

Further dezintegratsionnyj process in these communities was expressed in allocation of various groups in separate sects. Them some tens now are, and the tendency of any formation of groupings under Islamic slogans remains.

Studying an ideology problem in Near-Eastern region, it is possible to meet such concepts as «Islamic radicalism» and «Islamic fundamentalism». However between them it is impossible to put an equal-sign. The radical Islamic fundamentalism, regards as of paramount importance "a jihad" principle, is known just as Islamic radicalism, in abbreviated form - islamizm. Followers of radicalism understand jihad as necessity of struggle, and up to armed, with Christian, in their eyes godless and materialistic, the Western world. Within the limits of such ideology works YOKES.

Concept of Islamic fundamentalism more widely than, for example, concept salafizma. In this case, salafity use in the purposes social intensity in a society is more often. They are integrated into power structures, realise the interests by means of political processes. Unlike radical fundamentalism, salafity resort to political strike methods is more often. If to speak about YOKES it is the most radical grouping, dzhihadisty which are aimed at creation halifata by conducting operations.

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Nevertheless, in activity of the groupings which have arisen after al Kaide, new prominent features became appreciable. So, statements that the United States are a main objective and that they are the basic opponent for the Muslim world gradually have left on the second plan. Some groupings directly asked the USA about the help as, for example, was in Syria. Possibly, such groupings recognise that in ideological preferences of the given groups an emphasis becomes on Intramuslim distinctions more and more. Thus, struggle against Shiits, for example, leaves on the foreground, than struggle against the USA and Israel.

It is obvious that such aggressive ideology of violence, compulsion, mass executions, ethnic cleanings, intimidation and terror, charge of all in disbelief, destructions of temples will have hardly the future in region where centuries occurred mezhkonfessionalnoe and international interaction. However, this destructive force can quite continue destruction of the Near-Eastern states, executing thus plans of those who tries to create in region set of the centres of instability, chaos and anarchy.

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Today YOKES represents «the semireal quasistate» with shariatskoj a form of government which partially controls territory «sunnitskogo a triangle».

The organisation has forced out al Kaide from positions of the main enemy of the USA and has considered "al Kaide" errors: it does not impose to the population religion unknown to it salafitov and the Arabian sciences or tolerance to them, and supports traditional Islam, at the same time operating in a military alliance with the organisations of Persian Islam, except Shiit and Kurdish, and breeding home guards, and after creation of the international coalition against YOKES - also in the union with al Kaide and some groupings of the Syrian opposition. The great value plays that the considerable unit of the peace population voluntarily agrees to remain in territory of the Islamic state.

Tactics and strategy of YOKES notably differs from other terrorist organisations. This grouping which aspires to expansion of the under control territory. And it not simply spontaneous marches-throws or captures of considerable objects any few. The former military men of the Iraq army skilfully owning military art are engaged in planning of operations. YOKES accurately to aspire to become the full state. For this reason battle operations napravlenny on capture of strategically important objects and energy sources. For realisation of the plans, grouping considerable money resources are required. By recent estimations of a financial condition of YOKES it is possible to approve that the economic base is made by internal sources and the incomes taken from under control territories. Most a vivid example is oil sale. YOKES samofinansiruetsja at the expense of oil deposits kept under control. In Iraq of YOKES controls seven oil deposits and two oil refining factories, in East Syria - six of 10 deposits. Daily the grouping sells about 30 thousand barrels of crude oil. The grouping income «Islamic state» of oil sale exceeds three million dollars a day that is high enough indicator. And it allows the organisation to keep and increase the military potential. However neither mass-media, nor politicians cannot explain how YOKES it is possible to sell oil in the international market which, is by the way, controlled by the government of Washington. That is, if YOKES is capable to sell oil in the market, means at it there are communications with the oil companies. The success of "the Islamic state» consists that now it controls two main oil pipelines: one, conducting to Banias both supplying Syria, and another, delivering "white" oil in Turkish port Dzhejhan for the further transportation. The functioning oil pipeline is used by local authorities of Kurdistan which with its help export oil in Kirkuk. That is it is possible that the attack of YOKES is co-ordinated with local authorities and the main objective - to dismember Iraq on three units. [10]

Thus, it is possible to allocate following sources of financing of YOKES:

Sale of oil both in home market, and on foreign (through Iraq, Lebanon, Turkey);

Introduction of taxes to business in controllable territories;

Antiques sale;

Introduction of "the road tax» (control of passage of automobile cargoes on roads of Syria and Iraq).

Probable split of Iraq, certainly, will change oil distribution to three units in Near-Eastern region. After success of YOKES all oil companies have been compelled to reduce the staff in different degree. It concerns such campaigns as BP, Rojal Datch the Shell, Turkish oil corporation and the Chinese companies Petro Chajna, Sinopek and KNSHNK. Losses will be incurred by Syrians, Iraqis, Persians and to a certain extent China and Japan which was one of major customers of Iraq.

The authorities of YOKES also have built the whole system of the taxation of individual businessmen with the floating tax rate. Also there is a system of sale of licences for archaeological activity.

Any similar terrorist organisation having history of existence not of one tens of years, has not achieved what has reached YOKES for such short term. Here it is possible to assume that the interested western organisations and separate persons support grouping activity.

Feature of YOKES is copying of elements of the government that allows to carry out control in the grasped territories. YOKES as has the incomes, system of the social support, the debugged mechanism of an information antagonism and system of the "state" management. YOKES positions itself not as the organisation, and as the protostate structure gradually developed in the high-grade Islamic state. Therefore YOKES has debugged enough hierarchy.

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At the head of the organisation there is Al-Bagdadi, it "Caliph" who in turn is the commander-in-chief.

Executive power (deputies) in Iraq and Syria carry out an office advisers (government) and 12 local managing directors. The office of advisers consists of committees on the finance, management, the transport organisation, military affairs, legal affairs (including courts, police and the structures executing sentences), on affairs of foreign insurgents, affairs of safety, maintenance, investigation and propagation. In provinces corresponding structures of the power which have completely replaced earlier existing are created.

Besides, Abu Bakru Al-Bagdadi submit two deputies of Syria - to Abu Ali al-Anbari and Iraq - to Abu Muslim al-Turkmani. They in turn control three departments - Military Department, the Union of Leaders and Union Shury.

Legislature is administrative council, executive power is replaced with some advisers of the Caliph who collect taxes, establish a mode of supply of electricity, water, control all civil life-support systems. The deliberative body named "Shura" into which enter from agent people of the Caliph functions.

Recently there was an information that in YOKES there was a national currency (Islamic dinar), stamping coins and even stamps.

YOKES have own special services and a press service. And it is information-war of nerves this grouping conducts at very high level. One of the main components of an information policy of YOKES are shocking media files of cruelty and violence. In 2013 has been created the honey-fund "Ajnad" which specialisation was distribution dzhihadistskih sermons and church chanting. Same year media agency "Интисаам" extending a content in the Arabian language has been founded. In 2014 on arena the new media centre "Al-Hajjat" orientated on the western audience has entered. Exclusively skilful propagation has been developed after 2014 in social networks. Propagandists in social networks provoke disputes and then contact participants for the purpose of recruitment.

Militarised units of YOKES in a place the basic battle kernel, by data on the beginning of 2015, total by different estimations from above 100 and to reach to 150 thousand bayonets. This number includes battle brigades, groups of support of "Ansar", a safety force of "Hisba", force of police, militia (civil guardsmen, local groups of self-defence: "Muhabarat", "Assas", "Amnijat", «Ain al-has» etc.), the recruits passing combat training in educational camps, and to 22 thousand foreign fighters almost 100 nationalities.

Tactics of actions and arms of YOKES. The main advantages dzhihadistov is suddenness, mobility and onslaught. Marches are made by small columns which in the sizes do not surpass also an infantry platoon. The maximum subdivision - a company. Before force battle concentrate in a proper place and in due time. Attacks are conducted with full pressure of forces and, as a rule, at pre-dawn o'clock or early in the morning. Such tactics has the lacks, but in this case it has appeared effective. Distinctive features of YOKES are also well organised investigation and flexibility in a choice of tactics of battle. The strong massed blows are combined with constant small, but effective raids and the subversive and terrorist certificates exhausting the opponent. [11]

Now on some sites TVD «the Islamic state» passes to defence. To it dzhihadistov the arisen necessity of a regrouping of forces and means in connection with changes in operative conditions has pushed. There is also a political problem - again formed halifat should demonstrate to all Muslim sunnitskomu to community that it in a condition to defend the conquered. For the organisation which so actively maintains mobility in operations, deduction and protection of the grasped territories is the present call. The hybrid army of YOKES at the moment creates strengthenings there where Kurds, the governmental army of Iraq or their opponents on Syrian TVD go over to the offensive or can counterattack. Bridges, dams, dams if there is a necessity to create an obstacle in a way of advancement of the opponent are subject to destruction. The system of anti-tank defence combining Pt-means and engineering barrages is actively created. Mines-traps are in large quantities used. To prevent occurrence of guerilla formations of the opponent, YOKES intentionally expels from the occupied territories nesunnitskoe the population. At refusal to leave regions, people intimidate and force to co-operate with the authorities for needs of defence. Corresponding propagation with use of means of outdoor advertising, leaflets, loudspeakers is actively conducted. In a front zone the safety mode is established. The population is differentiated: someone is involved on service, someone arrest (abduct), someone kill. YOKES actively co-operates with a home guard of tribes of Arabs-sunnitov. The propagation, kindling hatred Arabs-sunnitov to representatives of other religions, religions and ethnoses is skilfully conducted. Revolt and discontent cruelly choke. [12]

The arms of army of YOKES are a usual guerilla set: basically these manual small arms. Dzhihadisty lack artillery and air defence weapons. Basically on arms of groups of YOKES consist: М16, М4, AV the Stayer (Austria), AKM (and analogues), RPK, М14, SVD, М249, the personal computer, DSHKm; Pt-means: М40, BGM71, РПГ-7, М79, PTURSy: "Bassoon", «the Red arrow 8» (Peoples Republic of China); air defence weapons: PZRK (an arrow 2,), the STORAGE 23-2, ZSU 23-4; artillery: 130-mm of gun М46, Д30, 155-mm of howitzer М198, "Carnation" (and others SAU), БМ14, БМ21 ("Hailstones"); armoured cars on base "Hammer" - HMMWV, MRAP, М1117, М113, БМП1, tanks: Т55, Т62, Т72, М1 ("Abrams").

The Islamic state uses different kinds and recruitment combinations. In the politician and activity of YOKES the special place is taken away to attraction of volunteers and experts from Europe, Russia and the Post-Soviet states of the Central Asia.

Contrary to a popular belief, for YOKES they are necessary not only in quality of "gun meat". In the insurgents enough trained and possessing real battle experience, at present needs are not present, and losses in personnel from operations of "an antiterrorist coalition» do not carry critical character. Under the approximate data, to armed groups go and in operations take part from a quarter to third of volunteers. The management of YOKES divides the others on two unequal units: the minority goes on special preparation - that is called, «shots on vyrost», on prospect. The majority try to use on their civil specialities.

Especially in the ranks of YOKES technical shots, physicians, engineers, IT experts, journalists, and also engineers for repair of arms and technics are claimed.

Salaries in YOKES more than worthy, and participation in operations not always is required. For example, single "elevating" - depending on qualification - from 5 to 30 thousand dollars. Married couples - on five-ten thousand dollars have more. The habitation is allocated free of charge that svjazanno with mass flight of a unit of the population from the regions which have got under control of YOKES. The role regular dressings on konfessionalnomu to a sign and for "disloyalty" to the new power have played.

Monthly compensation also depends on qualification. Civil experts receive from 500 to 1000 dollars that for region is worthy earnings. On each child in a family stands out from 35 to 50 dollars a month, free education, health services is provided. Absence of utility bills is remarkable also. [13]

However, for the majority of natives of Europe, Russia, including from the North Caucasus, and money - the main thing is far Post-Soviet Central Asia not. But also not the minor.

Special living conditions in territory occupied YOKES create the new conditions of a life entered by them and customs:

Football and sports entertainments in territories of YOKES are forbidden. In January, 2015 insurgents in Mosul have shot from a machine gun of 13 teenagers for football viewing;

Everyone will be sentenced to execution in YOKES, the mobile phone will be found in whose house. For the purpose of revealing of similar infringements in houses of citizens almost daily pass searches;

It is impossible to smoke cigarettes and to chew an elastic band, for infringement - 80 blows by a lash;

During Friday prayers all shops and shops in halifate should be closed;

Strict supervision comes true behind the clothes form: it should not remind that that carry "incorrect";

It is forbidden to women to move without the man. The caught woman get home, and the man the trustee is exposed 80 blows by a lash.

Besides YOKES has let out the official price-list for «the human goods». The price for sex slaves, for example, depends on age and an origin of "goods" and can fluctuate from $10 to $500.

The population of the grasped territories concerns to YOKES on a miscellaneous. For example, territories of ethnic Kurds and Shiits do not support extremists.

The special role is played by desire of many civilians voluntarily to remain in territory of YOKES. The population of regions in the north of Syria and in the centre of Iraq, having been tired of civil war and an arbitrariness of officials, welcomed insurgents. People saw in them any hope of an order. The population unit helps dzhihadistam which at times operate fairly cleverly, sometimes distribute the foodstuffs. In territories of YOKES there is a whole system of social support, medical maintenance, the help needing and etc. It certainly conquers hearts of inhabitants. However in a consequence and they are not insured from disappointments.

Also eyewitnesses notice that insurgents restore an infrastructure of cities which was in a sorry plight at board of the pro-American authorities of Iraq, many people in territories of YOKES have received pure water, an electricity, combustible, the Internet and many other blessings, insurgents have again opened the hospitals which are not working since the Iraq war.

One more important moment it that support is observed even in security services of the countries, army structures. For example, when insurgents have approached to the Iraq city of Ayr-Ramadi the first policemen, and then elite brigades have run. The city has been handed over without battle. Troops refused to be at war, did not see sense in this struggle, they not motivirovany.

Actions of insurgents of YOKES in under control territories completely correspond to concept of a genocide. In particular, are purposefully destroyed ezidy - Kurdish etno-konfessionalnoe the minority living in the north of Iraq. In a zone of the raised risk also there are "non-believers" (that is representatives of other religions) and even the Muslim population of the countries, refusing to adjoin terrorists, journalists and public figures.

«The Islamic state» aspires to become the state - without any inverted commas, the state, based on principles of the Islamic justice, traditional morals and aversion «values and delights» the West.

Policy of the foreign states in the relation «Islamic state». Now events in region and activity of the terrorist and extremist organisations are influenced by external factors, in particular, geopolitical interests of the leading countries of the world, and also is direct the countries Near and Middle East.

Many states are interested in overthrow of a mode of B.Asada and geopolitical transformation of region, however interests of the USA and such large regional actors, as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Qatar, in a strength of mind of influence and specificity of applied methods obviously prevail. It is connected with global interests (in particular the USA) and that these states are natural geographical neighbours who definitely aspire to realisation of the long-term geopolitical interests by region reformatting.

The USA and YOKES. Considerable efforts for situation development in region are applied by America. The USA declared «the Islamic state» the most important enemy and has urged all countries to enter into a coalition on struggle against grouping. However YOKES for the USA - it is artificial created irreguljarnoe formation which became a control device over Iraq and Syria. The purpose is the section of these countries on units and a control establishment over resources (in particular over oil). Through their realisation at the low prices in neighbouring countries of YOKES samofinansiruetsja that promotes deduction of the low prices for oil. There are definitely established facts that the Caliph al-Bagdadi was imprisoned several years ago Guantanamo. Then he has managed to make the breath-taking career in the world: from the prisoner of prison it has turned to the Caliph of "the Islamic state».

The future Caliph has appeared at once in Syria, and after a while there there was new grouping IGIL unknown earlier led by al-Bagdadi.

The given situation reminds special action on introduction of the agent enlisted in prison that is a commonplace for special services. And it very much reminds history of "al Kaide" which too was created for jihad against the USSR in Afghanistan. Today jihad declares YOKES against B.Asada's mode in Syria, thus keeping in suspense a Shiit management in Iraq and Iran and opposing Russia.

The fact of financing previous «the Islamic state» groupings (Iraq "al Kaide" and «the Islamic State of Iraq and Levanty») from the USA - for a long time not a secret, no less than their motives. The purpose was creation of a counterbalance to contenders of the USA in region - to Iran and Syria.

More interesting that already then, in 2012, the Ministry of Defence of the USA predicted probability of that, having united other organisations, «the Islamic state of Iraq and Levanty» can declare creation Islamic halifata in Iraq and Syria and to proclaim or create certain salafitsky emirat in East Syria. In the report also forecasts concerning crisis development in region also revealed.

According to authors, «the mode will continue to exist» and further present events will lead to "war by proxy", that is to opposition, where (Bashara Asada supporting a mode Iran and Russia on the one hand participate in Syria), and with another - the West, Gulf States and Turkey.

Set of all Near-Eastern contradictions against activization of "the Islamic state» is favourable the USA. Interests of the USA concern collapses of the world prices for oil and undermining of economy of Iran that will allow them to solve the Iranian nuclear dilemma and simultaneously to deprive IRI of possibility of economic restoration.

The current situation quite corresponds to plans of the USA which aspire to transformation of borders in the Near East on lines of an ethno-religious accessory with prospect of formation of independent Kurdistan (territory of Syria, Turkey, Iran and Iraq), the Arabian Shiit state (territory of Iran and coastal oil regions of Saudi Arabia), incorporated Azerbaijan (territory of Azerbaijan and a unit of Iran).

Certainly, for the USA and the West European countries of YOKES is the enemy, but the enemy completely not existential. This terrorist grouping is similar to "al Kaide", at any stage is considered as the tool for the decision of certain problems, but at the present stage can gradually turn to a problem as tendencies of its exit from under control were outlined.

Propagation of struggle from the given organisation is supported with shocking cruelty of grouping, resoluteness of actions, prompt expansion of controllable territory. Such policy of a management of YOKES should cause anxieties of the United States. Instead of senseless total war of all with all struggle has started to get more than operated character. The increasing independence of grouping of external financing and transition to self-support did its uncontrollable from the outside.

Now the USA and allies strike aviation blows to positions of YOKES, but they either are inefficient, or are impossible, as the basic forces of grouping place in densely populated cities. It is obvious that for struggle against Islamic threat full-scale land operation is necessary. Its carrying out individually Americans, considering experience of the Iraq and Afghani campaigns, it is impossible.

Though after intrusion of terrorists into Iraq and capture of several Iraq provinces by them, America together with the allies has created the international coalition on struggle against YOKES, nevertheless, actions of the USA show insincerity in struggle against YOKES.

Failure of Washington and allies in overthrow of the Syrian government and easing of Shiits in Iraq, and also display of signs of danger of YOKES for the West and its Arabian allies in the future, has led to that the USA have started to realise other scenario under aegis «struggle against YOKES by means of creation of the international coalition».

It is possible to consider the purposes which are pursued by Washington, having begun demonstrative struggle against YOKES. One of these purposes is repeated returning in region and active military presence at it.

Obama repeatedly underlined that the USA the maximum by means of air operations intends to struggle against YOKES and does not collect to involve land forces for liquidation of this terrorist organisation. Though also this promise has been executed not to the full. It is possible to draw a conclusion that the USA do not intend to struggle seriously from YOKES. It is supported with real situations. For example, numerous reports on air delivery of the weapon to groups of the YOKES which have got in an environment arrive. Also it is known that American to pilots in several cases did not allow to make blows on positions of YOKES. Besides Teheran openly accuses the USA, Great Britain and even Israel of support of YOKES. Thus at the disposal of the Iranian investigation there are data on landings of military edges of the USA on the airdromes under control «Islamic state». [14]

Thus, it is possible to tell that actions of the USA against YOKES are not cardinal, and is faster demonstrative and are made a maximum for drawing of controllable blows on YOKES so that in the future Washington could use this grouping as the lever of pressure or an occasion to presence at region.

Turkey and YOKES. Feature of region where there are confrontations, that Syria is a corridor on which there should pass routes of pipelines of gas and oil from the Near East to Europe. Syria in turn is not the petromanufacturer. It is important Turkey for realisation of the energy strategy. Into plans of Turkey enters to collect as much as possible pipelines in the territory and to become the largest gazoraspredelitelnym the terminal for Europe.

In spite of the fact that Turkey is included into the NATO block, she is not ready to participate in operations against YOKES. The government of Turkey considers that these air blows of a coalition do not correct a situation in the Near East. Such opposition only consolidates crisis that in a consequence can affect and Turkey. Shunning direct armed involving in the conflict, Turkey expects to prevent a new stream of refugees thus. Their quantity in territory of Turkey has reached already 1,6 million persons. Thus the government does not receive the help from the USA, the United Nations and EU. The certain role is played by uneasy relations between Iran and Turkey, constructed on a mutual distrust.

Besides CIA in YOKES other special services of the countries as West, and Near East are interested also. However not always this competition and crossing of interests happens harmless. So, for example, one of the high-ranking members of YOKES of Abu Ubajda al Ma'ribi has been executed by the associates as the agent British МИ-6.

The native of Fasa, Abu Ubajda al-Ma'ribi was the head of security service of YOKES in Aleppo, in the north of Syria, and in due time was responsible for prisons where one of executed YOKES of the western hostages James Fouli contained. But the most interesting that al-Ma'ribi planned murder of the leader "Hararash-Sham" («Islamic movement of free people of Shama») Abu Halita the expert-suri which, on some sources, Turkish intelligence service MIT (Service of National Safety of Turkey) supervised. [15]

Turkey takes of an interesting position in the given crisis. On an idea of the West, Turkey, together with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, it was assigned a part a certain springboard for attack to Syria and reliable back for insurgents where would prepare new shots and treated the wounded. Originally so it also was. Turkey generously and began to support openly opposition in difference from its other participants, hoping for fast overthrow of a mode of B.Asada. However, despite secret operations of the next states, the information war untied against it by Turkish mass-media, Asad did not collect to surrender.

Turkey, most dreaming to make profit of this adventure, gradually rolled in own problems generated by short-sightedness of own politicians. Government Erdogana not is groundless began to accuse of support of radicals. But Erdogan constantly expanding frameworks of the power, continued to bargain with the West, simultaneously trying to keep relations with radicals.

Soon it became known that in territory of Syria the whole group generated from among retired fighters of special divisions of Turkey operates. And it battles in numbers not simply mountain the guerrilla, and as a part of YOKES. Turkish legionaries are well prepared mercenaries and receiving, in difference from ordinary YOKES, much more considerable payment. They have appeared in the war if and not by order of it is exact from a command tacit consent, and are supervised by structures MIT. The information on this group after some fighters of these subdivisions were taken prisoner has filtered Into mass-media.

However, against troops of Asada representatives of Turkish branch "al Kaide" battled also. Interesting, but even those members of this organisation who should leave prison term, suddenly, on happy coincidence of circumstances, have appeared on freedom under a subscription about nevyezde. After their body have found in flashpoints of the next state.

Even representatives of the criminal world of Turkey rendered the feasible help to "Brothers-Mojaheds". The hijacked cars to order from Turkey were forwarded through border to Syria. There YOKES "finished" them by own strength, mounted arms and transformed them into battle chariots. Business has been put on a stream, and the account to stolen cars went any more on hundreds, and on thousand. All was natural it not free of charge and if to consider that about two thousand cars of Turkish motorists have appeared in Syria it is possible to guess scales of profit on such business.

The weapon generously delivered from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, also went through Turkey. Moreover, Turkey and independently delivered the weapon to Syria, to be exact sold. When in mass-media the information on it and the public became known again was excited, that the original answer has sounded from lips of the minister of trade and customs Hajati Jazydzhy. The minister, having made a statement on December, 15th, 2013, has explained that the weapon was on sale Syria for the sports purposes. Probably, according to the Turkish minister, civil war became the most favorable period for development of rifle sports in the country, whereas Syrians the most sports people all over the world. [16]

Nevertheless, in connection with change of political-military conditions in region in 2014 and creation of a military coalition of the USA against the organisation of YOKES, Turkish airdromes have begun to be used actively the USA for carrying out of air blows. However the government of Turkey has been more concentrated to internal problems of the country. From the very beginning of operations of grouping of YOKES in Syria in Turkey it was possible to observe lifting of the Kurdish population which expressed desire to assist Kurds in Syria. Especially mass excitements have been caused by a siege of Kobani, Syria. After these events through the Turkish-Syrian border the stream of refugees that was not favourable to the government of Turkey has rushed. The majority of the population of Kurds demanded immediate delivery of arms in a city and the help to refugees. The most considerably adjusted Kurds demanded immediate conducting troops. However the government of Turkey shuns till now direct armed actions against YOKES because of fears of growth of separative moods in Turkey. The government does not support a mode of Bashar Asada, therefore does not wish to support Syria in struggle against YOKES. As Turkey is afraid of association of Kurds. It is obvious that Kurds are capable to long military opposition, and further Turkey will probably receive one more serious problem for own safety. The image of a card of the Near East on which not recognised state Kurdistan is represented figures in many mass-media. The Kurdish population is arranged in territories of Syria, Turkey, Iraq and Iran. In Turkey internal problems which carry in itself terrorist threat now accrue.

Also Kurds possess the big European diaspora. Thus, it is possible to see that in front of Turkey there is a hard choice between the further support of Islamic opposition forces in Iraq and Syria and enforced struggle against them.

Now Turkey intensified the forces on two fronts: against «the Islamic state» and against Kurdish formations in northern unit of Iraq. Such military operations became the answer to the acts of terrorism which have occurred in territory of Turkey. It is paradoxical that YOKES and Kurds who are exposed to attacks of Turkey, inherently - opponents. Kurds are supported of the USA and EU. It turns out that Turkey acts as the third party in this conflict.

The states of Persian gulf and YOKES. Prompt advancement of the organisation «Islamic state» which has managed to occupy extensive territories in Syria and Iraq, generates set of the questions, concerning sources of financing, available adherents of self-proclaimed Caliph Abu Bakra al-Bagdadi.

The former prime minister of Iraq Nurial-Maliki in June, 2015 has declared that behind financing then still «the Islamic state of Iraq and Shama (Levant)», Iraq which has grasped by then to the second largest city Mosul, there are three states - Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait. In a Western press, including in rather dear editions, type «New York Tajms» (The New York Times), "Dejli Bist" (The Daily Beast), "Uoll Strit Dzhornal" (The Wall Street Journal), continually appeared articles confirming words al-Maliki. So, in the article «Allies of America finance Dzhosh Rogin IGIL» notices that within several years certain elite circles of each of three states of Persian gulf were engaged in financing of the insurgents who are at war in Syria. [17]

Saudi Arabia promoted radikalizatsii Islam at the state level. Having created vahhabitskoe the government, the country thereby has raised degree of Intraislamic moods. But, besides, already many years saudity directly finance radical Islamic groups in the different countries. The beginning was necessary to it in Afghanistan when after the Soviet intervention in this country saudity have started to render to the Afghani Mojaheds the monetary help. Some time of their special service even co-operated with Osama bin Laden. It not only became the catalyst of long-term war in Afghanistan, but also has served as the reason of formation Islamic emirata in the next Pakistan.

Already then secular character of Islamic fundamentalism sauditov - that is Sheriyat under the schedule was traced. But to achieve the purposes, something else that they as a result could achieve was necessary: the union with the USA and the separate countries of the NATO which arises as consequence of each big question in the Near East. That is why now so it is rare someone in the White house or in the West disturbs a condition of the rights and freedom of citizens of the countries of Arabian peninsula.

The purpose of the Arabian monarchy is creation of a counterbalance for a so-called Shiit half moon led by Iran. From here and financing of the Syrian opposition which have become by a unit of YOKES, and struggle against husitov in Yemen.

It is possible to tell that the history with "al Kaide" repeats. In the theory, YOKES can become most that on is serious threat for Saudi Arabia. Thus that the considerable quantity of insurgents in the ranks of YOKES - natives just from this monarchy, and the governmental troops are compelled to participate now in war against insurgents in territory of Syria. According to some information, Riyadh has stopped financing of YOKES and opposition led by «Front an-Nusra» («al Kaide in Syria») approximately in the beginning of 2014 after split between these two groupings.

Secondly, sauditam it would be necessary to concern more seriously the citizens who finance YOKES or go to be at war on the party dzhihadistov. That in Riyadh have realised a failure in Syria, dismissal of head of investigation in 2014, and the decision to judge for complicity dzhihadistam testifies also. But it is possible to assume only how much it works. Hardly it is possible to count seriously that it becomes a hindrance for set of sheikhs which wish to dethrone a royal dynasty.

Double game in occurring events is conducted by Qatar which has entered the international coalition against «the Islamic state» and resolutely rejects any charges in support of insurgents. However activity of "the Islamic state» in sunnitskom a triangle is favourable also to Qatar which also carried out deliveries of arms and financing of the given organisation. Thus its interests lie in two planes. On the one hand, Qatar plans to weaken Iran and Syria which the beginnings the day before together with Iraq the Syrian civil war have signed the trilateral memorandum of export and transit of the Iranian gas. The given document has blocked the civil-engineering design of a gas pipeline from Qatar to Europe through territories of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and Turkey. On the other hand, Qatar aspires to strengthening of the positions in a competition for regional leadership with Saudi Arabia which, along with Syria, has not given the consent to transit of Qatar gas.

In these conditions Qatar acts destabilizatorom Near-Eastern region. However, considering that the strength of the army of Qatar not much more than 12 thousand military men, what speech about own politicians cannot be. Several years ago Qatar was registered in the USA in the list of the countries, copresent to terrorism and has been excluded from it only thanks to that has given the territory under the American base. Thus, near to capital of Qatar the air-force base the Ale-udejd where more than 7,5 thousand military men of the USA draw duty is arranged. Therefore in Near-Eastern region a voice of Qatar not unreasonably accept for a voice of the USA. [18]

In too time of an ambition of present governors of the small state leave far beyond a finding in an orbit of Saudi Arabia. Between these two states of the relation were and remain very uneasy, in many respects because of support of organisation "Brothers-Moslems" by Qatar in Egypt. The dynasty Sauditov considers this organisation as threat of own power, especially ideas, otstaivaemye "Brothers-Moslems", use in Kingdom appreciable popularity. Therefore the help of Qatar to this organisation is considered by a dynasty Sauditov as intervention in internal affairs of own country.

According to various reports, most of all "patrons of art" of YOKES not in Saudi Arabia, and in Kuwait, even in spite of the fact that the country also does not dream of leadership in region. The matter is that Kuwait not so carefully traces financial activity of various funds. Therefore in 2012-2013 from Kuwait in YOKES millions dollars arrived.

In addition to it there are certificates of the considerable monetary help which also proceeds from some men of means of Kuwait, for example, from the largest businessman Ganima al-Mtejri.

Iran and YOKES. The strategic partnership of Syria and Islamic Republic Iran is one of major factors of a political situation in the Near East.

Interests of Iran in Syria are quite explainable. Since Islamic revolution and an establishment of Islamic republic, Iran remained one of key contenders of Saudi Arabia in struggle for leadership in the Near East. Before in region the third centre of force - the Arabian secular nationalist modes of socialist orientation - Iraq and Syria which had support of the USSR operated also.

Iran acts in the Near East as the main ideological, political-military and economic opponent of Saudi Arabia. Iran is the recognised leader of the Shiit world having authority of the defender of their interests in those countries where Shiits are in minority. For sunnitskih the countries such minority represent the big danger as are conductors of the Iranian political and economic interests. In Saudi Arabia Shiits live in "petroliferous" provinces that creates for the government additional threats to economic well-being of the country in case of occurrence of excitements on religious soil.

Leaning against support of Shiit communities, Iran receives fine possibility of influence on a policy and economy of the Arabian countries of the Near East and even Turkey.

In July, 2011 between Iran, Iraq and Syria the agreement on building of "the Islamic gas pipeline» by approximate cost in 10 mlrd dollars Some experts has been signed believe, what exactly because of it Qatar began to support more actively the Syrian opposition. It is interesting to note, what exactly since July, 2011 begins information war of a Qatar broadcasting company "Al-Dzhazira" against B.Asada's government.

From the end of 2011 Iran renders to B.Asada's government the essential economic, military and political help allowing a mode to remain in power, despite accruing pressure from internal armed opposition and its foreign patrons (the USA, Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the European Union countries).

The peace permission of the Syrian crisis is the vital problem for Near-Eastern region.

In 2013 - 2014 began to arrive messages from various sources about occurrence in Syria fighters of the elite Case of guards of Islamic revolution (KSIR) and the further growth of their number. In the middle of October, 2015 Iran intensified the help to B.Asada's government in Syria, having increased a military contingent by territories of the country. To Syria it has been sent thousand Iranian military men, including KSIR. [19]

Accordingly, all "masks" have been definitively dumped in 2015 when the data about  destruction in Syria four high-ranking Iranian officers has proved to be true. So, in January as a result of the Israeli aviablow in region Kunejtry brigade general Mohammad Allahdadi was lost, and in April in battle with the Syrian opposition in 60 km to the south of Damascus at the city of Busra al-Harir the major general of KSIR Hadi Kadzhbaf has been killed. In October in a course boestolknovenija with insurgents IGIL major general Farshad Hasunizade and brigade general Hamid Mohtarband were lost.

New strengthening of the Iranian military presence at 2015 is caused by sharp deterioration of a situation for the Syrian ruling mode which has lost control at least over half of territory of the country and over two thirds of frontier transitions.

In parallel it Iranian "advisers" in Damascus have sharply strengthened the influence on planning and realisation of military operations and in particular, have developed bases of conducting operations on immediate prospects.

Anyway, it specifies in gravity of the Iranian intentions on protection of a mode of B.Asada and readiness really and directly to join in opposition with sunnitskimi dzhihadistskimi groupings.

However "offstage" there are some important points with reference to serious change of a strategic situation for the Iran which has appeared in very vulnerable situation.

Strengthening of the Iranian military presence at the country simultaneously means acceptance of additional responsibility by Teheran for fate of Syria in which it from the beginning 2000 gg, has enclosed billions dollars for expansion there the influence. Accordingly, it is necessary to expect from its party in the near future expansion direct and all-round aid to the Syrian mode which further fate becomes the indicator of true possibilities of Iran on influence on succession of events in region.

Differently, in a concrete case classical artificial retraction of Iran in a confrontation outside of its territory, fraught for it is observed by certain costs. For Iran the additional expense of resources which could be used in other directions, and activity decrease in other significant countries for it at the best threatens.

For example, the same Saudi Arabia is interested in deeper involving of Iran in the Syrian crisis. In this case terms of overthrow of a mode of B.Asada leave on the second plan. For Riyadh the maximum retraction of Iran in iraksko-Syrian "bog" is paramount. The situation in many respects will depend On productivity of the given process also in Yemen. [20]

The further protraction of the Syrian crisis, undoubtedly, is fraught for Iran and can have adverse consequences. Instead of the strong, capable ally consolidating positions IRI in the Arabian world and providing Teheran an exit to Mediterranean sea, Iranians now deal with the partner exposed to constant attacks of armed opposition and needing the considerable economic and military help.

But in case B.Asada's mode will fall, the irreparable damage will be caused to positions of the same Iran. This sad prospect does not leave at Iran other variants, except as performance in support of B.Asada.

Particularly for Islamic republic Iran of YOKES yet does not represent serious military threat. If it was a question of state security, Iran would be limited to a counterterrorism operation against extremists. However conditions are much more difficult. Now Iran struggles not for safety of the western borders, and is faster against transformation of Near-Eastern region. The purposes of Iran and the USA in opposition of YOKES absolutely different. It is important to Iran to keep integrity of Iraq and not to admit intervention in Syria. And at last, to warn strengthening of Antishiit and Antiiranian groupings under the protection of YOKES.

Thus, Iran and the Lebanese Shiit party «Hezbollah« supervised by him, actively participate in a confrontation in Syria on the party of the governmental troops of the president of B.Asada and bring the certain contribution to victory business over YOKES and other similar organisations. At the same time, to speak about the full-scale introduction of Iran into war against YOKES and Syrian "opposition" while it is premature. Hardly Iran possessing own interests at regional level, in foreseeable prospect will enter completely the conflict, applying in Syria the regular armed forces. An exception there are Cases of guards of Islamic revolution separate subdivisions which already are at war in Syria. At the same time change of political-military conditions in region of the Near East can lead to the most unexpected consequences. For example, defeat husitov in Yemen can lead to redeployment of forces of radical insurgents to Syria and Iraq, and also to "clearing" of a considerable unit of the Saudi army and financial resources which can be redistributed for the decision of affairs in Syria - and on the party antiasadovskoj oppositions.

Policy of Russia in region in a context of struggle from YOKES. In the Russian list of the terrorist organisations it is forbidden to them to carry out the activity in territory of the country, is registered more than ten groupings. Each of them carries in itself potential threat for national safety of the Russian Federation. The most actual and dangerous terrorist threat for Russia is «the Islamic state».

Long time terrorists from YOKES were away from Russia, however the recent statement of one of leaders of terrorists has guarded Russians. Abu Muhammad al-Adnani declared creation of a new administrative unit - vilajeta in the North Caucasus.

In a society there were instantly disputes on that, threat of carrying over of world terrorism on territory of Russia is how much real, whether there are preconditions to occurrence of Islamic terrorists in the North Caucasus and why recently Russians pass in insurgents ranks.

Day has opened on June, 23rd, 2015 new page in the history of terrorism in Russia. In a network the statement of the Press Secretary of YOKES of Abu Muhammada al-Adnani in which he informs on creation of new branch of terrorists in Russia which will operate in territory of the North Caucasus has extended. Old fears that «the Islamic state» declares the claims for the North Caucasus, have justified.

The first threats from YOKES to Russia have been sounded in September, 2014. Then terrorists have written down the video reference for Vladimir Putin in whom have declared that will unleash war for clearing of caucasus.

After that at once some leaders of terrorists on caucasus have taken the oath of YOKES. Among them Sulejman Zajlanabidov, Abu Muhammad Kadarsky and Abu Muhammad Agachaulsky appear. On June, 21st, 2015 supporters of YOKES in Russia have addressed to «the Islamic state» for support. Representatives of terrorists in the Chechen Republic, Ingushetia, Dagestan and Kabardino-Balkariya in circulation appeared. These are four of six regions who make close to al Kaide Islamic emirat caucasus («Imarat caucasus»; organisation activity is forbidden in territory of the Russian Federation). Representatives of these four regions is more often than the other make attacks and acts of terrorism in support of new emirata in which, in their opinion, the law of Sheriyat should to dominate and which should declare jihad to all other world. The announcement of YOKES became especially interesting in the light of absence now the leader at emirata. [21]

Developed political-military conditions in Iraq and in particular in Syria, the activity of YOKES connected with activity, have led open military support of the Russian Federation B.Asada's legitimate mode in struggle against YOKES and other extremist organisations. As the president of Russia Vladimir Putin has declared, the grouping «Islamic state» declared for a long time Russia the enemy. According to the head of the country, it is unique a right way of struggle against the international terrorism is to operate on anticipation in Syria.

Before sending of the planes about Syria Russia has conducted preparation on formation of own coalition for struggle against «the Islamic state». Russia has agreed with Iran, Syria and Iraq about creation in Bagdad of a headquarters on a co-ordination of action against YOKES. After the president of Syria has addressed with official prosbo about granting of military help VKS the Russian Federation have obtained the permit to the beginning of air operation. Attack of objects of YOKES is made on the basis of army SAR and headquarters military information in Bagdad, including with use of unmanned prospecting flying machines, providing with that high productivity of bombings. According to the Russian military department, only for the first month of operation in Syria it has been made more than 1000 battle departures and it is destroyed more than 1200 objects of YOKES (to 68 % of an infrastructure of YOKES), including command points in mountains, transshipment and strong points, warehouses of arms and military technology, and also factories on manufacture of explosives that has allowed army SAR to begin a counteroffensive. Unlike blows of the western coalition, VKS the Russian Federations make also night departures that essentially breaks system of logistics of YOKES, without allowing insurgents to move with impunity from object to object under the screen of night.

Russia in Syria operates as much as possible openly - are defined both problems, and operation terms (realisation of air support in a course of offensive actions by the Army SAR), and the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation spreads video-reports on successful departures in an easy approach. Thus, the Russian Federation comes back to the Near East as the force which have united round Syria, Israel, Iraq, Iran for the purpose of a non-admission of full destabilization of region. With such force it is necessary to be considered.

As the president of the Russian Federation has declared: «We, certainly, do not collect in this conflict to a head. Our actions will come true strictly in the set frameworks. First, we will support the Syrian army in its lawful struggle against terrorist groupings, secondly, support will exclusively come true from air without participation in land operations». Under the government statement Russia will carry out support for the term of carrying out by the Syrian army of offensive operations.

Besides performance of the president of the Russian Federation V.Putin on anniversary 70th General Assembly of the United Nations also has extremely accurately designated a position of Russia on Syrian to a question. Nevertheless, intention of Moscow to struggle with terrorist grouping «Islamic state» in Syria has caused inconsistent reaction in the world community, first of all from a coalition of the countries led by the USA.

In too time active participation of Russia in the Syrian conflict has caused ambiguous reaction from the world community. Whereas Washington declares attacks VKS the Russian Federation the peace population and moderate opposition, Europe suffering from flow of refugees, changes criticism for approval concerning efforts of Moscow on counteraction to terrorists and situation settlement in Syria more and more. Certainly, it is impossible to exclude completely probability of development of the mediated confrontation of Russia and the USA on problems SAR in the second «cold war». However it is difficult to deny that the Russian Federation declares again itself as about the strong world power conducting the independent and at the same time transparent policy corresponding to norms of international law.

It is necessary to underline that salafitskaja ideology of YOKES - the direct threat to peace fraught with a mass genocide of Shiit groups. In the long term «the Islamic state» is capable to establish the influence in the Central Asia. For this reason work on reorganisation and strengthening of role ODKB is now conducted. At the summit of Council of collective safety of this organisation, passed in Dushanbe on September, 15th 2015 g, the basic theme became counteraction to terrorist threat which carries YOKES to this region.

Political-military conditions on Iraq and Syrian TVD as to the most active zone of activity of YOKES Near-Eastern region.

Iraq TVD. Political-military conditions in Iraq were characterised as before by the raised complexity and intensity. The Iraq governmental army, formations of Shiit volunteers and some sunnitskih tribes, Kurdish forces of "Peshmerga" with active support of aircraft of the USA and their western allies conducted operations against armed formations of the extremist organisation «Islamic state» and groups supporting it local sunnitskih tribes. Capture by insurgents of YOKES in May, 2015 Ramadi - an administrative centre of the western province of Anbar became large failure of the Iraq governmental army.

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Serious contradictions remain between the basic political forces of Iraq that interferes with association of efforts for opposition dzhihadistam. Intensity is present at relations between sunnitskoj and Shiit communities. Variety of unresolved problems is complicated still by relations between the central government of Iraq and the authorities of the Iraq Kurdish autonomy.

In the expired period foreign-policy activity of a management of Iraq and the Iraq Kurdish autonomy differed high activity. The great attention was given to relations with the next states, especially with Iran, and also from the Russian Federation. Active contacts were supported with administration of the USA. In May, 2015 the prime minister of Iraq Hajdar al-Abadi has visited Russia. The country leaders continued to make considerable efforts for reception of foreign political support and material aid, first of all military-technical and military.

Experts underline that capture by forces of YOKES of the city of Ramadi the next time has demonstrated not only fighting capability of this terrorist organisation, but also incompetence of the authorities of Iraq, weakness of the governmental army. It is noticed that after the former prime minister Nuri al-Maliki present government Hajdara al-Abadi «actually has inherited ruins. The country is shipped in the conflict between sunnitami and Shiits. The army does not wish to be at war. In Ramadi, as well as earlier in Mosul, military men have preferred to run, instead of to resist up to the end».

The state of affairs in safety sphere in Iraq remains very difficult and astable, and in variety of regions - strained. Military operations of various degree of intensity were conducted in the west, in northern, central, east and, partly, in southern provinces of the country. And last quarter the basic military events occurred in the west of the country - in a province of Anbar. In Iraq high level of terrorist activity of insurgents of extremist groupings, first of all YOKES remains.

In the north of Iraq where against insurgents of "the Islamic state» formations of Kurdish forces of "Peshmerga" operate mainly, intensity of operations has notably decreased. Battles were conducted basically item character and appreciable changes on an opposition line has not occurred. Periodically enemy forces undertook attacks to positions of Kurdish forces. Operations in northern province of Salah-ed-dynes, especially in the disctrict of the city of Bajdzhi and the largest oil refining factory being near to it in the country proceeded. The Iraq command declared on May, 7th, 2015 the beginning of scale operation on clearing of Bajdzhi of insurgents of YOKES. However, despite a considerable superiority in strength, military men and civil guardsmen could not achieve appreciable success. Coming troops «have faced the same system of a total mining and underground tunnels which has been organised by insurgents in Tikrite». It is informed that the extremists occupying unit NPZ in Bajdzhi, have mined and have partially blown up the enterprise.

By June, 2015 the Iraq army with support Shiit and sunnitskogo home guards has taken over the control of oil deposits of Alas and Adzhip in 30-50 km to the northeast from Tikrita.

Bands of YOKES have grasped these oil fields in June, 2014. In the end of May, 2015 in a province of Salah-ed-dynes from the opponent there were cleared regions the Ale-dadzhejl, the Sejid-ale-grejb, El- Ishaki, the Ale-kasarat.

To the north from Bagdad battles were still conducted mainly near to the city of Samarra where insurgents of "the Islamic state» repeatedly attacked positions of the governmental troops and Shiit teams of volunteers. In turn, the governmental forces have forced out the opponent from several settlements jugo-to the west Samarry.

Intensity remains in Bagdad. According to the western mass-media, the Iraq capital is a city with the highest in the world level of terrorist threat.

Active operations were conducted to the West from capital while to the south and the southwest from Bagdad battles had basically item character.

The main military events in the last period occurred in a province of Anbar. Here the Iraq army and civil guardsmen have suffered serious defeat from armed formations of "the Islamic state» which have grasped region Ramadi capital.

The opponent beforehand also was carefully prepared for forthcoming approach. In first half of May the management of YOKES has thrown some thousand insurgents, large parties of the weapon and ammunition from Syria to Iraq. Dzhihadisty have declared that «operations in Iraq represent now the greatest importance» for extremists. Thus the great bulk of people and technics was thrown in a province of Anbar.

According to military experts, «falling of Ramadi is the worst defeat of Iraq for the last year from the moment of a capture of Mosul. The nightmare of June, 2014 when units of the Iraq army have demonstrated a full unsuitability for a profession has in many respects repeated: surrendered in a captivity, threw positions, left to the opponent the military technology put by Americans. All strong points of the governmental forces in Ramadi have been easily grasped. At their defenders the ammunition was quickly completed, the promised reinforcement has not been sent, and groups« Islamic state »and have not met serious resistance». It is underlined that, despite the military-technical help, first of all, from the USA, and also Russia, Iran and some other countries, «the Iraq army and could not become the real force capable independently resist to Islamic formations and to return under control earlier lost territories».

In the meantime the USA and Iraq have entered fierce public dispute about the one who is guilty in defeats of the Iraq army. Thus Americans blame in all the Iraq military men, and the Iraq government - the American instructors.

It would seem, the important role in operations against «the Islamic state» is played by aircraft of the USA and their western allies. At the same time, as shows development of military conditions, «bombings of forces of the international coalition of positions of insurgents in Syria and Iraq have appeared ineffective. Dzhihadisty not only have kept the basic forces, but also have put a crushing defeat of the Iraq army, having grasped Ramadi, and have pressed the Syrian army, having occupied Palmira. Bombings of positions dzhihadistov once again (as well as in Afghanistan, and in Pakistan) have shown that one Air Forces cannot stop irreguljarnye troop». Besides the aircraft of allies puts massive retaliations only on occasion.

Planes of the USA take part in carrying out of air-force operation against «the Islamic state» in the Iraq territory, Great Britain, France, Australia, Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands, Canada and Jordan.

The government of Iraq continues to make considerable efforts on restoration of army and increase of its fighting capability for the purpose of achievement of successes in struggle against the opponent. Thus the special attention is given to improvement of technical equipment of troops, saturation by their modern and effective samples of arms and military technology, an improvement of the quality of preparation of various categories of military men.

Iraq receives the most scale military help from the USA which remain the main supplier of arms and military technology to the Iraq armed forces. Americans also have directed to Iraq the big group of military advisers and instructors for training of local military men.

Actively and on a substantial scale military cooperation of Iraq with Iran develops. During the visit which has taken place in May, 2015 to Teheran the president of Iraq F.Maasuma of the party have confirmed intention to continue this cooperation. In particular, Maasum has declared: «Military advisers from Iran are present on the Iraq earth but only to assist in the organisation of battle operations against YOKES». According to the Iraq president, «Iran plays especially appreciable role in struggle of Iraq against« the Islamic state ». And this strategic cooperation will be continued». During party visit discussed the further interaction in the field of an exchange of the prospecting information, sending of the Iranian advisers to Iraq, and also arms supplies in a context of struggle against terrorists from YOKES. [22]

The commander of forces of a special purpose of "Al-Kuds" of the Case of guards of Islamic revolution of Iran general Kasem Sulejmani has accused of inactivity of the American military men assisting VS of Iraq. Thus he has underlined, what exactly Iran was and remains the unique country which intended to combat really from YOKES.

More and more significant role in armed opposition with insurgents of YOKES is played by formations of civil guardsmen of the Iraq Shiits. At the same time the speaker of parliament of Iraq Salim Al-Dzhaburi (sunnit) recognised that prime minister Hajdar al-Abadi has no complete control over these formations. Experts obosnovanno consider that for today «the Islamic state» - «not so usual terrorist group. YOKES differs nothing from the organised disciplined military force. They possess modern arms - from tanks to rockets. Besides, they are zealously betrayed to business to which itself have devoted».

The US State department estimates number of the foreign insurgents who are at war in Iraq and Syria, in 22 thousand persons. The area of territory which is occupied now by armed formations of "the Islamic state» in Iraq and Syria, makes about 300 thousand sq. kilometres. [23]

Thus, in the expired quarter 2015 in Iraq very difficult and astable political-military conditions remained. In the country operations of the governmental troops, Shiit and sunnitskih civil guardsmen, Kurdish militarised units of "Peshmerga" with armed formations of "the Islamic state» proceeded. Against forces of YOKES the aircraft of the international coalition led by the USA actively operated. At the same time serious, basic contradictions between the basic political forces of Iraq remain not overcome that negatively affects association of efforts for struggle against extremists of "the Islamic state».

Syrian TVD. By fifth year of war the Syrian army has been considerably weakened by difficult fights with groups of insurgents «Islamic state» and «moderate opposition», supported by Americans. By some estimations, to summer of 2015 true to B.Asada's government armed forces had no more than 80 thousand persons of staff.

War has exhausted also park of arms of the Syrian army. If in 2011-2013 in battles participated basically Т-72 now because of shortage of armour tanks T-55 and Т-54 which majority prior to the beginning of war were stored are used. The difficult situation has developed and in aircraft: from pre-war park at army remains about a quarter of planes and even less helicopters.

From the beginning of 2015 political-military conditions in Syria are estimated as fraught with fast falling of a mode of B.Asada. It was promoted by loss of strategically important centre Idlib. The exit of Islamites on operative open space in northern unit of a province of Aleppo became Turning point in history of campaign. Achievement of the peace agreement between various insurgent groupings and their foreign sponsors in the name of Qatar, KSA and Turkey became the basic condition of such succession of events. Thus the governmental troops with support of groups of Lebanese "Hizballah" have managed to keep a corridor from a valley of Bekaa through Damascus, Homs and to the Boor to Latakia and coast that allowed to provide logistics of the governmental troops in these regions. However the tendency of development of a situation created conditions for infringement of uninterrupted supply of the Syrian army and the central Syria. In it has resulted preparing approach of groups «Islamic state» to Homs and to the Boor. Thus, according to CIA, the governmental troops had not enough reserves for strengthening and cover of especially dangerous directions, not to mention directions of secondary effort in the conditions of big razorvannosti defence front. Radically inability of Iran also was marked any to influence this process even taking into account movement of units KSIR.

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In the present state of affairs falling of moral spirit of supporters of B.Asada and their allies from "Hizballah" also took place. Till now the governmental forces continued to keep the basic strategic points (Damascus, Latakia, Homs), however the new co-ordinated actions of opponents of B.Asada could change this situation very quickly. All it to the middle of 2015 obviously could create front rupture in the central unit of the country, having insulated Damascus from the country north, and to bring by the autumn on the agenda an attention to the question on the future state system of Syria in posleasadovskuju an epoch.

By the time of the beginning of the active help of Russia to a legitimate Syrian management under control of forces, true to the government, remains to less quarter of territory of the country - Damascus, its vicinities, the most part of regions adjoining on Lebanon, strategically important coast of Mediterranean sea through which ports to Syria the military and humanitarian help, and also some small enclaves in different units of the country arrives.

Notorious «the moderate opposition» keeps now two large regions: one on the Israeli-Syrian border, another - adjoining to Turkey where antigovernment forces grasp such big cities, as Aleppo and Idlib. The considerable unit of territory of the country and the first stage a river basin Euphrates were grasped by insurgents of YOKES. Besides, under control of Islamites there is a number of important communications in the centre and in the east of Syria. They completely control border with Iraq where also keep a number of areas. The grouping "an-Nusra" cut with Dzhabhat a line Damascus - Aleppo in region Idliba. At last, the considerable site of Syrian-Turkish border is under control of a home guard of the Syrian Kurds.

While Russian VKS performed air operation and struck blows to groups of insurgents, their strong points, to a headquarters and PETROLEUM PRODUCTS warehouses on the earth at full speed there was a preparation for a counteroffensive of the Syrian army.

The basic regions of the developed active operations of a steel:

The north of a province of Lattakija;

Region Aleppo (to the south and severo-to the east cities);

Province of the Boor;

In the north of a province Homs;

Around Damascus on purpose to reject from capital armed formations;

The general plan of offensive actions was that, that a series of simultaneous blows to achieve complete control restoration over the western unit of the country.

On October, 8th, 2015 it has been declared that new created 4th assault case of land forces of Syria has begun approach in the north of a province of the Boor, in a valley al-Gab and in mountains of northeast Latakia. In the night from 12 for October, 13th the governmental army has gone over to the offensive in suburbs of Damascus. In this region regions Dzhabaar and East Guta became the cores «points of application of forces» assadovskih and the Iranian troops. Simultaneously blows were put from the south on the north along an axis of the Homs-boor-Idlib-Aleppo.

The main flashpoint of the autumn company on a military chart of Syria was the region Aleppo - the city of Syria first on size which nowadays lies in ruins that brightly associates with battles for Stalingrad. For a city antigovernment extremists, Kurds, army of Syria and «the Islamic state» battle. In this region for the first time after long departure of the governmental troops the basic opposition by army of Syria and YOKES has begun. Besides successful approach to the southwest from a city against various groupings of mutineers, the governmental troops have moved on the southwest, in parallel the highway conducting to Rakka, the Syrian capital of YOKES. Here in a full environment air base Kuvejris garrison battles, on break to which there came the Syrian units.

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To break off a blockade ring, it was necessary to pass all kilometres any some, but during this moment of force of YOKES have passed to counter-attack. With one blow they tried to cut off from the north attacking Kuvejris of force, and another, put considerably to the south, in the east of provinces of Aleppo and the Boor, in general to cut off from capital all northern grouping of the Syrian Arabian Army. Persistent battles here went all the week long and have not brought success of any of the parties. Nevertheless, on this site of YOKES operational and tactical advantage any more could not get. All attempts of a counteroffensive were unsuccessful.

However, during preparation and conducting approach of that «it is impossible to be strong at once anywhere and everywhere» a military management has admitted a number of errors which could become fatal for all approach, namely:

Shock groupings of the Syrian governmental troops have been territorially rather sensitively carried that as a result of approach has revealed interaction problems;

Because of limitation in forces and means command of the "governmental" troops has been compelled to limit strongly the shock groupings in a reserve component (as a result approach has poured out in a series of the frontal attacks which have not had the further development even in case of their success - at rather high level of losses there is simply nothing to increase advantage) - sharp escalating of the military help to resisting formations of rebels from the western coalition and a coalition of Gulf States, first of all in anti-tank means; - it is difficult to name high a moral-psychological condition of the Syrian governmental forces - the staff quickly exhausts because of difficult fights and the big losses; As a result of these defects and errors approach of the governmental troops and other resisting forces in a number of directions is stopped by counterblows IG.Pri it it is necessary to notice that all actions by the Army were carefully co-ordinated with actions of the Russian grouping which increased quantity samoletovyletov (their average value has a day made 70 by October, 12th and continued to increase the next weeks).blagodarja such intensity of actions of battle aircraft of the Russian Federation, terrorists had essential losses. The control system and supply of the bands, created has been broken for the last few years, the infrastructure which was used for preparation of new terrorists is considerably destroyed. The full superiority of the Russian aircraft in air and escalating of quantity our powerful bombing and rocket attacks on the major objects of a military infrastructure of the opponent has allowed the Syrian governmental army to pass from defence to approach. Armed formations of YOKES and «Dzhabhat an-Nusra» have lost the initiative and have been compelled to pass on all front to defensive tactics. By November, 10th the Syrian troops managed to break through almost three-year blockade of air base "Квайрес" near to Aleppo. In general it is possible to note, the Syrian army, despite universal counter-attacks of the opponent, comes slowly but surely! From the political-military point of view of action of the Russian avia-grouping stabilised position of the Syrian army, having defeated plans of those who counted on its defeat with the subsequent liquidation of Syria as the states. To the problem-maximum decision - full rout of terrorists in territory of Syria, creation of conditions for adjustment of peace life and transition to country restoration - it is still far, but the main thing that on the Syrian fronts there was a crisis. Simultaneously with active offensive actions of the governmental troops of Syria, Americans against YOKES have generated a new alliance in Syria which has started to operate in the north of the country - «Democratic forces of Syria» or as it still names «Burkan al-Furat» («the Volcano of Euphrates»).po to some data, is planned in the near future approach to Rakku, actual capital of YOKES. The forces allocated for fulfilment of given operation, are in 35 km from a city. Now «the Volcano of Euphrates» already begins preparation for operations against YOKES in the disctrict of the city of Dzherablus which is pass on territory of Turkey. All other highways which go to Rakke are already blocked by "Democratic forces of Syria». It is necessary to notice that to generate this coalition, the USA have sent earlier to Kurds of the military advisers, and then have "casually dumped in that region of 50 tons of ammunition. Thus, it is possible to assume that the discussed statement of the head of the Pentagon can serve some kind of "legitimizatsiej" subdivisions of forces of special operations already present in territory of the country for their subsequent application. Command centre CJSOTF-S in Qatar will co-ordinate deliveries from the USA and from bases of the Pentagon of the weapon for opponents of Asada. For financing of the given operations Saudi Arabia answers. The headquarters also will incur synchronisation of land forces of opposition with actions of 39th aviawing of the Air Forces of the USA which is based on base "Indzhirlik" in Turkey. It is necessary to notice also that for all intensive period of operations in territory of Iraq and Syria combat zones were left by a considerable quantity of people. For example, Syria has left almost 4 million people

On diplomatic front continuation of negotiations in Vienna became the main event. If at the first session there were only four countries (Russia, the USA, Saudi Arabia and Turkey) in the end of October, 2015 19 delegations have taken part in session, including Iran, and also China which has joined literally at the last minute already. At negotiations it was possible to convince Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey to refuse the requirement of immediate leaving of B.Asada as it has already occurred earlier to diplomacy of the countries of the West. Now it is a question of a certain transition period during which they are ready to suffer B.Asada. However, such change of a position most easier to explain that from the moment of the beginning of the Russian military operation of any fast falling of a mode in Syria is not expected any more. Russia continues to insist that B.Asada's fate can solve only the people of Syria on elections. How to pass to these elections, what conditions should be observed, who can participate in them and what constitutional changes wait the country - all it also was discussed during seven-hour negotiations. During the given meeting of the Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia have exchanged lists of the oppositional organisations as which each of the parties considers "moderated", "patriotic" and distinguishes from terrorists. The coordination of these positions will define, with whom B.Asad will carry on negotiations.

With a view of strengthening of the Syrian opposition there was a redeployment of American command Combined Joint Special Operations Task Force-Syria (CJSOTF-S) on base "Al-Udejd" in Qatar which officially submits US Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) - is responsible for training and equipment of insurgents of the Syrian opposition. [26]

Besides especially propaganda problem to show that the USA really are at war from YOKES in Syria, such step has also an accurate political problem - to create for «moderate opposition» a certain bridgehead in territory of Syria, then to act at negotiations, having real force on the Syrian earth. To cope with such problem, one military advisers and instructors of CIA not enough - subdivisions of special troops of the Pentagon are necessary.

Its structure included subdivisions of national self-defence of Kurds (YPG, a battle wing of a Kurdish left-wing party «the Democratic union» - "joint venture"), forces of Christians-assyrians («the Assyrian council of war»), and also the Syrian Arabian coalition - incorporated subdivisions of the Syrian opposition which support the USA, first of all - the rests of the Syrian free army: such little-known groupings as «al-Tuuvar», etc. On an emblem of a military coalition are represented by Dzhejsh symbols YPG and SSA, divided by waters of Euphrates. [25]

Summing up, it is possible to tell that application of the Russian aircraft in Syria was unexpected and effective. An appreciation at foreign military analysts actions of the Russian fleet, carried out forces of the Caspian flotilla have received also successful start-up of cruise missiles "Calibres" on objects of terrorists. Operation VKS has appeared successful not only militarily - it also has brought large political success.

Russia has intercepted the strategic initiative in struggle against Islamic terrorism on Syrian TVD at the USA and their allies. The coalition led by the USA during operations in Syria (by the way, which lasted more year) has put on objects of terrorists more than 6,5 thousand bombing attacks, but as a result there was that formations of YOKES continuing approach and «Dzhabhat an-Nusry» have established the power almost on 75 % of the Syrian territory. Russia for a month has put bombing attacks three times less, but has thus helped B.Asada's army to return 25-30 % of occupied territory.

From the strategic point of view of action VKS have helped to kill danger of break of groups of insurgents to the Mediterranean coast of Syria. The problem-minimum has been solved: threat to the Russian point of material support in Tartuse and airport Hmejmim through whom the help to the Syrian armed forces is delivered is removed. Command of the Navy of Russia declared recently that in port Tartusa dredging works thanks to what heavy-tonnage vessels can go to it come to an end. It follows from this that the volume of the help of Syria will increase, and Tartus will get strategic value.

In total at the moment of the middle of November, as a result of aviablows was lost, according to the western military sources, not less than 7-8 thousand Islamic insurgents, many of which - officers of arms. Destruction of three visible field commanders of the Islamic bands killed as a result of blows of the Air Forces of Syria is confirmed. Among them, in particular, the leader of branch «Dzhabhat an-Nusry» groupings «Sarajja at-Tauhid val-jihad» Abu Muaz ash-Sham (a battle pseudonym). One of these days it is destroyed 7 more visible field commanders from the groupings connected with "al Kaide". In particular, it is Abu Ali an-Naimi and Ashraf Dzhamia al-Muhejr («Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham»), Abu Muaz ash-Shami («Dzhibhat an-nusra»), Saleh Sinda («Dzhejsh al-Islam»), Ukaba Abu Ahmad («Livaa Umar al-Faruk»). [24]

According to the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, for a month the Russian planes have carried out 1391 battle departure. Blows have been put on 1623 objects of insurgents, among which 249 headquarters of various levels and signal centres, 51 educational camp, 131 warehouse, 35 industrial workshops, 371 battle position, 786 camps and bases.

Nevertheless, despite the admitted defects in preparation and conducting offensive operations, clearing of 50 large settlements by B.Asada's army with support VKS the Russian Federation became result of October approach. In region Aleppo 19 settlements, in a province Latakia 9 have been freed, in the central unit of the country as a result of active actions the Syrian army has freed 12 cities and has pressed home an attack in northern direction. In a province Homs as a result of approach of the governmental troops and subdivisions of a national home guard was possible to take over the control of the city of Snejsel and to block large bands in settlements Gift-ale-kabira, This-ali, Tejr-Maala with a view of their subsequent destruction. The considerable success in region the Duma and Nula is made.

- Interaction between actually Syrian troops both the Iranian units and groups "Хезбаллы" also otrabotanno not to the full.

- Problems and difficulties with rear maintenance (considering high requirement of troops, subdivisions of rear maintenance in a due measure do not consult. Troops conduct heavy encounter attacks and spend a considerable quantity of ammunition, fuel and spare parts, and podvoz in many cases is complicated, without saying about that sometimes and there is nothing to carry);

3. At approach planning some factors have not been considered adequately:

The Supreme commissioner of the United Nations on affairs of refugees of Antoniu Guterrish has declared: «It is the biggest contingent of refugees from the centre of one conflict for all last generation». [27]

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On diplomatic front continuation of negotiations in Vienna became the main event. If at the first session there were only four countries (Russia, the USA, Saudi Arabia and Turkey) in the end of October, 2015 19 delegations have taken part in session, including Iran, and also China which has joined literally at the last minute already. At negotiations it was possible to convince Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey to refuse the requirement of immediate leaving of B.Asada as it has already occurred earlier to diplomacy of the countries of the West. Now it is a question of a certain transition period during which they are ready to suffer B.Asada. However, such change of a position most easier to explain that from the moment of the beginning of the Russian military operation of any fast falling of a mode in Syria is not expected any more. Russia continues to insist that B.Asada's fate can solve only the people of Syria on elections. How to pass to these elections, what conditions should be observed, who can participate in them and what constitutional changes wait the country - all it also was discussed during seven-hour negotiations. During the given meeting of the Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia have exchanged lists of the oppositional organisations as which each of the parties considers "moderated", "patriotic" and distinguishes from terrorists. The coordination of these positions will define, with whom B.Asad will carry on negotiations.

With a view of strengthening of the Syrian opposition there was a redeployment of American command Combined Joint Special Operations Task Force-Syria (CJSOTF-S) on base "Al-Udejd" in Qatar which officially submits US Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) - is responsible for training and equipment of insurgents of the Syrian opposition. [26]

Besides especially propaganda problem to show that the USA really are at war from YOKES in Syria, such step has also an accurate political problem - to create for «moderate opposition» a certain bridgehead in territory of Syria, then to act at negotiations, having real force on the Syrian earth. To cope with such problem, one military advisers and instructors of CIA not enough - subdivisions of special troops of the Pentagon are necessary.

Its structure included subdivisions of national self-defence of Kurds (YPG, a battle wing of a Kurdish left-wing party «the Democratic union» - "joint venture"), forces of Christians-assyrians («the Assyrian council of war»), and also the Syrian Arabian coalition - incorporated subdivisions of the Syrian opposition which support the USA, first of all - the rests of the Syrian free army: such little-known groupings as «al-Tuuvar», etc. On an emblem of a military coalition are represented by Dzhejsh symbols YPG and SSA, divided by waters of Euphrates. [25]

Summing up, it is possible to tell that application of the Russian aircraft in Syria was unexpected and effective. An appreciation at foreign military analysts actions of the Russian fleet, carried out forces of the Caspian flotilla have received also successful start-up of cruise missiles "Calibres" on objects of terrorists. Operation VKS has appeared successful not only militarily - it also has brought large political success.

Russia has intercepted the strategic initiative in struggle against Islamic terrorism on Syrian TVD at the USA and their allies. The coalition led by the USA during operations in Syria (by the way, which lasted more year) has put on objects of terrorists more than 6,5 thousand bombing attacks, but as a result there was that formations of YOKES continuing approach and «Dzhabhat an-Nusry» have established the power almost on 75 % of the Syrian territory. Russia for a month has put bombing attacks three times less, but has thus helped B.Asada's army to return 25-30 % of occupied territory.

From the strategic point of view of action VKS have helped to kill danger of break of groups of insurgents to the Mediterranean coast of Syria. The problem-minimum has been solved: threat to the Russian point of material support in Tartuse and airport Hmejmim through whom the help to the Syrian armed forces is delivered is removed. Command of the Navy of Russia declared recently that in port Tartusa dredging works thanks to what heavy-tonnage vessels can go to it come to an end. It follows from this that the volume of the help of Syria will increase, and Tartus will get strategic value.

In total at the moment of the middle of November, as a result of aviablows was lost, according to the western military sources, not less than 7-8 thousand Islamic insurgents, many of which - officers of arms. Destruction of three visible field commanders of the Islamic bands killed as a result of blows of the Air Forces of Syria is confirmed. Among them, in particular, the leader of branch «Dzhabhat an-Nusry» groupings «Sarajja at-Tauhid val-jihad» Abu Muaz ash-Sham (a battle pseudonym). One of these days it is destroyed 7 more visible field commanders from the groupings connected with "al Kaide". In particular, it is Abu Ali an-Naimi and Ashraf Dzhamia al-Muhejr («Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham»), Abu Muaz ash-Shami («Dzhibhat an-nusra»), Saleh Sinda («Dzhejsh al-Islam»), Ukaba Abu Ahmad («Livaa Umar al-Faruk»). [24]

According to the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, for a month the Russian planes have carried out 1391 battle departure. Blows have been put on 1623 objects of insurgents, among which 249 headquarters of various levels and signal centres, 51 educational camp, 131 warehouse, 35 industrial workshops, 371 battle position, 786 camps and bases.

Nevertheless, despite the admitted defects in preparation and conducting offensive operations, clearing of 50 large settlements by B.Asada's army with support VKS the Russian Federation became result of October approach. In region Aleppo 19 settlements, in a province Latakia 9 have been freed, in the central unit of the country as a result of active actions the Syrian army has freed 12 cities and has pressed home an attack in northern direction. In a province Homs as a result of approach of the governmental troops and subdivisions of a national home guard was possible to take over the control of the city of Snejsel and to block large bands in settlements Gift-ale-kabira, This-ali, Tejr-Maala with a view of their subsequent destruction. The considerable success in region the Duma and Nula is made.

- Interaction between actually Syrian troops both the Iranian units and groups "Хезбаллы" also otrabotanno not to the full.

- Problems and difficulties with rear maintenance (considering high requirement of troops, subdivisions of rear maintenance in a due measure do not consult. Troops conduct heavy encounter attacks and spend a considerable quantity of ammunition, fuel and spare parts, and podvoz in many cases is complicated, without saying about that sometimes and there is nothing to carry);

3. At approach planning some factors have not been considered adequately:

Influence of activity of YOKES on safety of the Russian Federation and stability condition in the CIS whole. «The Islamic state» and, as consequence, crisis of Near-Eastern region became today a problem for all international community.

That fact that quantity of foreign insurgents, since 2013 in YOKES continues to grow, means that the Islamic extremism has extended far beyond the Near East. Military successes of YOKES are impossible without constant replenishment by volunteers. The basic stream of foreigners goes basically from the regions adjoining to region of military operations. This problem has concerned also to the Russian Federation.

The percent of natives of Russia and the post-Soviet territory countries is high enough that is the strengthening factor of destabilization of conditions in the future. Returning of such insurgents home can become further a serious problem as such extremists can quite undermine internal security of the countries.

Data about number of Russians being in YOKES is ambiguous. For example, according to special services, in YOKES are at war about two thousand the citizens having the passports of the Russian Federation. By some expert estimations, their number comes nearer to five thousand. Such distinction in figures is based that the unit of data on citizens is confirmed documentary, and the unit is in a stage of check by which special services and law enforcement bodies are occupied now.

In March, 2015 the plenipotentiary of the president in the North Caucasian federal district Sergey Melikov has declared that in the ranks of YOKES are to one and a half thousand natives from the Russian caucasus.

Prior to the beginning of military operation of Russia in Syria directed against the terrorist organisations, YOKES was threat of "tomorrow" that did not do its less dangerous. It was svjazanno that the Russian Federation has no direct borders with the territories, controlled YOKES. Besides «the Islamic state» is encircled by the strongest states of the Islamic world: Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia, some of which though give indirect support of the organisation, but nevertheless are not ready become bricks in a future structure halifata.

In the remote prospect of activity of YOKES in territory of the Russian Federation presence of two factors could promote: the Muslim population in the Volga region and on caucasus, and also existence of a terrorist underground in the country of other extremist organisations.

For today inflow of insurgents to «the Islamic state» objectively conducts to outflow of an extremist layer from Russia and Post-Soviet Central Asia. Such natives will start to represent danger only on homecoming. First, the balance of power in a radical underground in this case will change. Secondly, returning of people with war experience can result as in creation of new forms of associations of various groupings of a radical Islamic direction, and to activization of terrorist activity as a whole.

If the quantity come back makes 200-400 persons, it will not reduce probability of threat. Even 50-70 skilled insurgents with a high level of training, leaning on already created "civil" an underground, can quite to destabilise the regional and regional centre.

Strategy of YOKES has set of directions. One of the most dangerous is cooperation with other organisations. It is possible to observe, how the radical groups scattered worldwide rise under flags of YOKES, but formal association does not occur also they operate independently. For example, structural subdivisions «Imarata caucasus» have completely sworn the leader «Islamic state» to Abu-Bakru al to Bagdadi. And insurgents vilajatov Dagestan, Nohchijcho (Ichkeria), Galgajche (Ingushetia) and Kabardy, Balkarii and Karachaja are uniform in this decision. [31]

In spite of the fact that natives of Russia more than in other countries, the percent of insurgents from the CIS also causes anxieties. Their homecoming in the countries of the Central Asia can become further a serious problem as such extremists can quite undermine internal security of the countries of Commonwealth.

In this respect YOKES, for example, began to co-operate with «Islamic movement of Uzbekistan» I (GO), which basis is Pakistan and Afghanistan. They count on a change of power of Afghanistan, and the main targets for them are Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan where they expect to construct own Islamic state, own halifat. At the worst scenario if YOKES will extend far beyond controllable territory of Syria and Iraq, there will be an organizational association to one control centre.

Recruiting activity is conducted also in territories of the North Caucasus and the central-Asian region. More and more citizens such in economically safe states as Azerbaijan or Kazakhstan rise under banners of "the Islamic state». The management of YOKES allocates at least 70 million dollars for situation destabilization in the Central Asia. In structure of YOKES there is battle group "Мавераннахр" into which insurgents and volunteers from such countries, as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kirghizia and Tajikistan enter. On September, 26th, 2014 the leader of the extremist organisation «Islamic movement of Uzbekistan» Usman Gazi has declared association from YOKES that is conclusive carries in itself danger to the central-Asian region.

Strengthening of YOKES in the central-Asian region can to destabilise even more conditions in the post-Soviet territory. Tajikistan and Turkmenistan because of their direct affinity to Afghanistan are considered as the most vulnerable. Insurgents of YOKES get on territory of Afghanistan and mass the forces in northern unit of the country, is direct on border with the CIS countries.

For today, along with activization of movement in northern provinces of the country, it is possible to observe "Taliban" and the groups, sworn YOKES. Under the statement of secretary general ODKB of Nikolay Bordyuzha, in territory of Afghanistan there are insurgents of the terrorist organisation «Islamic state». In recent interview head ODKB has declared that in camps around the afgano-Pakistan border preparation of insurgents which send further to Syria and Iraq on battle training is conducted.

Secretary general ODKB N.Bordyuzha has expressed fears in connection with the received information that among the Islamites, having training preparation in similar camps, there are also natives of the countries ODKB, ready to participate and in conditions destabilization in the homeland in case of reception of corresponding orders. [32]

For today political-military conditions in Afghanistan and in particular in its northern provinces of the CIS adjoining on camps (Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenia) have sharply become aggravated. For example, in a province of Kunduz which borders on Tajikistan, there are constant collisions, insurgents separate groups try to get and into the next northern provinces in Balh and Farjab. In a province Mazar-i-Sharif army American units are gradually replaced with special troops which should be placed on military base on a constant basis, however this process is still far from end. From Kunduza to a province of Balh which borders already on Uzbekistan, absolutely close. The Uzbek city of Termez is opposite arranged, however it is consolidated enough and there the Uzbek troops are pulled together. There are certain advantages in control over conditions in frontier regions of Afghanistan: the river Amu Darya is a serious obstacle, the Uzbek site of border is insignificant and is in the tactical plan above level of the Afghani territory. However that if insurgents will reach from Kunduza Balha is essential, the north of Afghanistan will be completely cut off from other country. Thus, they will incorporate to forces, which sosredotochenny in a province of Farjab.

Since 2015, in Afghanistan all are more intensively shown signs of structurally-political transformation of the project «Islamic state». Separate armed supporters of "the Islamic state», mainly, from among Arabs, pakistantsev, Tadjiks, Uzbeks, Uigurs have appeared in the autumn of 2014 in the Pakistan and Afghani territory. Today YOKES turns to the serious political-military organisation. The grouping all is controlled by representatives of Pakistan "Taliban" who are supervised accurately by the Pakistan interdepartmental investigation ISI more strongly. Thus it is necessary to notice that active formation of cells of "the Islamic state» in the Afghani territory has coincided on time with the beginning of large-scale and multimonthly operation of the Pakistan armed forces of "Zarb-e-Azb" in December, 2014 against the Talibs who are based in territory of Pakistan. Their replacement from Vaziristana and Beluchistan on territory of Islamic Republic Afghanistan (IRA) became a result of this military operation. After transition from Pakistan to Afghanistan the Pakistan Talibs began to swear actively on fidelity to the Caliph of "the Islamic state» to Abu Bakru al-Bagdadi. [33]

Actually, transition of the Pakistan Talibs under "jurisdiction" of YOKES became the form of their political legalisation in territory of Afghanistan.

Legalisation of the Pakistan Talibs in Afghanistan was accompanied by the active campaign of a propaganda service of YOKES directed on the Afghani Talibs. Sworn al-Bagdadi Hafiz Said the Khan and its Pakistan colleagues, thereby, not only disavoured own former oath to the leader of the Afghani Taliban to mullah Mohammad Omaru Mudzhahidu (till the end of July, 2015 when it has been officially declared his death, the mullah the Lobster was considered as the boss both Afghani, and the Pakistan Taliban). They also have launched propaganda campaign for "pereprisjaganie" the Afghani Talibs to "the Islamic state». In practice it meant actual resubmission of the sworn YOKES of field commanders and insurgents of Afghani "Taliban" to the former leaders of the Pakistan Talibs.

According to the Afghani authorities, the number of insurgents of the sworn YOKES in the country reaches already 4-5 thousand. Events there develop much faster, than it was possible to assume. Since August, 2015, operations of power departments of Afghanistan have not given due results on a dressing of these territories from groups of YOKES and movement "Taliban".

If propagandists of YOKES manage to achieve the objective and to discredit a management of Afghani "Taliban" it is necessary to expect till the end of 2015 sharp increase in number of formations of "the Islamic state» in Afghanistan.

By some estimations, to the beginning of 2016 the number of insurgents of "the Islamic state» in Afghanistan can increase from present 4-5 thousand persons to 15-20 thousand persons.

It is obvious that with such quantity of fighters of YOKES can start to plan large operations not only in Afghanistan, but also in the countries of the Central Asia.

From the CIS countries adjoining on Afghanistan, full readiness and determination to be at war with any opponent who will try to to destabilise a situation, shows only Uzbekistan. In the next Turkmenistan the situation is perceived is not so disturbing. Its border becomes stronger, retraining of staff and gathering of reservists, however the political-military country leaders is conducted and armed forces have no that practical experience of conducting military operations against Islamites which is at Tashkent. If at the time of S.Nijazova's board when the pact with Talibs about a non-aggression has been concluded, the afgano-Turkmen border was the quietest now such variant of succession of events is excluded. "Taliban" it is pure etno-pushtunskoe movement and at the heart of the napravlenno on the Intraafghani processes. YOKES puts the purpose on expansion of the influence and secular modes it at all do not arrange.

Nevertheless, active actions of groups of YOKES and movement "Taliban" in northern provinces of the country can stop one more transboundary project: the railway Turkmenistan - Afghanistan - Tajikistan. It is necessary for China, however while all is limited by design works.

To above set up infinite Afghani syndrome it is necessary to add, notes and conclusions of military geographer A.E.Snesareva: «Afghanistan in itself any does not represent the price … If this country and it is possible to seize to keep it in hands very difficultly, on an institution of administration and an order institution so much resources is required that the country of these expenditure never will return: to it to return them there is nothing». [34]

At present there is a military-technical help to the former union republics in format ODKB, and also cooperation with the American military men in Afghanistan for fast reaction to provocations comes true from insurgents and prevention of distribution of terrorism on the states next to Afghanistan.

In the light of occurring events it is necessary to notice that coordination of efforts of Russia, the countries of the central-Asian region CIS, member countries ODKB can constrain threat of distribution of radical ideas of YOKES on nearby territories and regions.

Thus, it is possible to make a number of conclusions and to predict variants of development of a situation:

1. Geopolitical position of the Near East has predetermined its special role in the international affairs and processes.

First, the given region takes a leading place in the world on world oil recovery. However oil is not only the blessing, but also konfliktoobrazujushchim the factor in region. This results from the fact that presence of so rich resources does region by object of expansion of the leading states of the world.

Secondly, here the major are crossed sea, air and the land communications connecting Europe, Asia and Africa. Such strategic arrangement does the given region certainly perspective from the point of view of development of economy and the decision of strategic problems on a control establishment, thereby aggravating rivalry both Near-Eastern, and extraregional actors.

Thirdly, stratification of various cultures, religions and the people represents huge disputed potential and creates additional difficulties for the decision of political problems.

Fourthly, importance of the Near East for world political stability is caused by that a significant amount of modern threats - export of Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism therefrom proceeds, possibility of distribution to the OHM. The similar state of affairs is caused by a significant amount of regional conflicts in this connection some states of the Near East at the moment are or in a disintegration stage (for example, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen), or are close to the serious civil conflict (Bahrain, Lebanon). Even in those countries where the internal political situation is rather stable, grow ripe etno-konfessionalnye the contradictions, in the long term threatening to lead to powerful social explosion.

2.« The Islamic state of Iraq and Levant »- IGIL, also today known as« the Islamic state »- international Islamic sunnitskaja the terrorist organisation. Though actually it is impossible to approve that YOKES - Muslim grouping or structure. YOKES it is simple terrorists, extremists and the murderers covered with Islam. For today« the Islamic state »represents accurately built organizational structure which controls more than 90 thousand in sq. km of territory of Iraq and Syria, arranges the branched out network of military command, an infrastructure adjusted by system of the special services, system of logistics and has daily trading a turn (oil and oil products, a slave-trade, weapon sale) on millions dollars. The operation which has thus begun in August, 2014 of the USA on counteraction of YOKES could not provide the decision of tasks in view in view of participation in a coalition of such countries, as Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar which are interested in strengthening of the terrorist organisation. Low efficiency of put air blows, absence of prospecting and coordination support, and also interaction with army SAR call into question the purposes declared by the western coalition, headed by Washington where for today enters not less than 28 states.

4. Now political-military conditions in the Near East in bolshej to a measure depend on occurring events in Syria which internal and external factors influence.

Internal factors concern development of the further approach of the Syrian army (with support VSK the Russian Federation) on YOKES and to search of the compromise for settlement of a political life of the country. In spite of the fact that the Syrian army for the past month has started to free gradually from terrorists settlements, rates of its approach while are insufficient. Therefore for today while it is difficult to predict, what is the time it is required for full rout of YOKES in Syria - half a year, year or more. But, nevertheless, having begun on September, 30th, 2015 air-force operation in Syria Russia not only has intercepted the initiative in struggle against YOKES, but also has broken the conceived plan on B.Asada's displacement.

nachitelnoe the place in occurring events occupies the politician of the leading countries of the world and the countries of region of the Near East. Struggle against the international terrorism - the important article of the American foreign policy registered in Strategy of national safety. Interests of the USA in Syria are clear, but in practice Washington and allies as it appears, pursue other strategic targets which are incompatible with activization of the Russian activity in region. Not last place in formation of YOKES is occupied besides the USA also with Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The ideology of these salafitskih the states completely coincides with ideology of YOKES and they are interested in geopolitical reformatting of Near Vostoka.rjadu with it threat of "the Islamic state» for Russia there is all oshchutimee and it is more dangerous. According to special services of the country and independent expert groups, on the party of radical opposition in Syria is at war 1,7 thousand Russians. YOKES gradually extends the influence in the central-Asian post-Soviet territory and hires extremists, operating in Afghanistan as in the country directly adjoining on camps of the CIS and ODK with which Russia is in allied relations.

Thirdly, stratification of various cultures, religions and the people represents huge disputed potential and creates additional difficulties for the decision of political problems.

First, the given region takes a leading place in the world on world oil recovery. However oil is not only the blessing, but also konfliktoobrazujushchim the factor in region. This results from the fact that presence of so rich resources does region by object of expansion of the leading states of the world.

External factors will depend in many respects on that plan or "road map" on settlement of the Syrian crisis which try to develop at negotiations in Vienna. There is very "hot" diplomatic struggle round the main formula - whether to conduct in Syria new presidential election, to create the coalition government or the transition period government. However currently the problem consists in persuading its representatives to sit down for a negotiating table. It is impossible to forget about a position of the president of the country of B.Asada which it has accurately expressed in one of the interviews: «I am ready to any negotiations and I will not be afraid for the sake of the world in Syria to share the power with political, instead of armed opposition. And terrorists and gangsters I will beat and destroy».

Along with it, after the beginning of direct military support of Russia and military activity of Iran in Syria capacity and influence of YOKES in Syria will gradually decrease, and the duly elected power has got in Syria good political-military support from Russia, Iran and Lebanon which guarantee at least legality of actions of the government of the country.

Value of a policy of the Russian Federation concerning the Near East and occurring events first of all is defined now by the world status of Russia as constant councillor of Safety of the United Nations, active participant in settlement of regional crises. Concrete obligations are connected with this status. Even owing to one this reason Russia cannot be away from the processes proceeding in the Near East and, especially, to be discharged of the permission of conflict situations when its partners and allies in region are threatened with danger. Besides Russia has own interests in the Near East, and rather essential which are necessary for defending. These interests, are so great that quite get to a category of interests of national safety of Russia.

Thus the policy of the Russian Federation is as much as possible clear and transparent - Russia is interested in conditions stabilisation in the Near East, a non-admission of growth of influence of YOKES to the Central Asia and caucasus, and also in preservation of existing geopolitical outlines of region.

As variants of the forecast of succession of events in Syria and in the Near East as a whole it is possible to consider the following outcome. Against interaction activization in Syria, there is a variant under certain circumstances of possible rapprochement of Iran and Iraq which can unite against Saudi Arabia which now actively finances as YOKES, and the Syrian opposition. And if to consider the present become stronger influence of Russia and its military possibilities it is possible to assume that the world prices for oil which now in a greater degree depend on Saudi Arabia and are defined the USA, can hesitate for a time in other party, and participation of Moscow in the world law and order becomes gradually defining.

Now nobody undertakes to predict most precisely the further development of a situation in Syria as in a look-ahead background it is too much factors both obvious, and hidden. But anyway all subsequent events in this country will influence changes of a regional and world order. More truly, it is possible to see changes already today. And Russia together with Iran this look-ahead background very strong factor correcting situation development.

Taking into account participation of the countries of the West and Russia in destruction of battle power of YOKES, the probability of fulfilment of acts of terrorism in these camps is high. Danger remains in the European countries (Great Britain, France, Spain, Italy, Germany, Poland, the states of Scandinavia, etc.), accepting migratory streams from zones of high political-military instability (Near and Middle East) or from the states aspiring to "development" of the European countries with use of migratory streams (Turkey - Germany; Algeria - France; Morocco - Spain; the Arabian countries and Pakistan - Great Britain, etc.). Together with refugees and migrants can mix up and insurgents of YOKES, for adjustment or strengthening of a recruiting and terrorist network.

The situation and in Yemen can become one of factors in development of political-military conditions on Iraq and Syrian TVD. For example, defeat husitov in Yemen can lead to redeployment of forces of radical insurgents to Syria and Iraq, and also to "clearing" of a considerable unit of the Saudi army and financial resources which can be redistributed for the decision of affairs in Syria and in Iraq.

Taking into account developing political-military conditions in Yemen, it is possible while to assume development of several scenarios.

The first scenario is a division of Yemen two units - southern and northern. Similar division already was in Yemen in the sixties last century at the time of domination of British Empire in Southern Yemen.

The second scenario is a preservation of unity of Yemen, with a puppet regime establishment. This scenario is good for Saudi Arabia so ka influence of this country on Yemen will remain also a considerable unit of the Saudi army and financial resources, can be redistributed for the decision of problems in Syria and in Iraq.

The third scenario is a creation of a distemper and instability in the country. However this scenario will have negative consequences for the West. For instability in Yemen can extend to all Arabian peninsula and to be thrown on the African horn, and to subject to threat Bab el Mandeb. Besides, instability in Yemen will mean strengthening of power of "al Kaide". In similar conditions of the USA it will be easier to justify the presence at the countries of the Near East under the pretext of struggle against "al Kaide".

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