Along with the Ukrainian hearth kindling chaotic world war, the United States continues to support armed conflicts in Syria and Iraq, to destabilize the situation in the middle East, prepare an invasion of the Taliban and Islamic militants in Central Asia, to design the color revolutions in Russia and other countries of Eurasian integration, and organize coups in out-of-control countries in Latin America.
To world war II the US are pushing described above the objective laws of the global economic and political dynamics. Their understanding allows to predict the political and military activity for the next decade.
1. The forecast of cyclical acute military threat
The analysis of long cycles of economic and political dynamics shows that the most likely time of major regional military conflicts involving the United States and its satellites against Russia – 2015-2018 Is the period of the new technological order from the delivery phase to the growth phase, when completed the formation of its technological trajectory and starts the modernization of the economy based on it. It was during this period technological shifts entail changes in the structure of international relations.
The country first embarked on a wave of growth of new technological order, gain competitive advantages on the world market and start to push the former leaders who have to exert great efforts to exit the crisis of over-accumulation of capital in obsolete production and technological structures.
Unfolding described above, the struggle between the old and new leaders of techno-economic development for dominance in the world market, which leads to an increase of international tension and provoke political and military conflicts that still led to world wars. It is this period is now beginning, which will last until 2020-2022 years, when finally formed structure of a new technological system and the global economy will enter a phase of sustained growth based on it.
The Ukrainian crisis began a year earlier forecast estimates the time of the beginning of the escalation of military-political tensions. If Yanukovych had signed the agreement establishing the Association with the EU, he would have started a year and a half later – at the time of the next presidential election.
By this time would have earned under the agreement the mechanisms to control economic, foreign and defense policy of Ukraine with the EU. Would be created and deployed on the border with Russia which are currently the Ukrainian-Polish-Lithuanian battalions. Gone would be the working out procedures for joint action European and Ukrainian armed forces in resolving armed regional conflicts.
Although the agreement provides for the obligation of Ukraine to act in these conflicts under the leadership of the EU, and to follow his foreign and defense policy, it is obvious that the real organization of military action is to engage in NATO under the leadership of Washington.
There is no doubt that at the time of the presidential elections in the spring of 2015 would be applied the same technology replacement Yanukovych protege of the United States, and that during the coup this winter. Only a change of government took place relatively in a legitimate way, which would exclude the intervention of Russia.
The Americans also formed the government and power structures of Ukraine of its agents, which would be sent on its accession to NATO and the ousting of the Russian black sea fleet from the Crimea. Russia was opposed not Nazi gangs, but quite legitimate Ukrainian-European troops, based on all the military power of NATO.
Sent US the legitimate Ukrainian government would break off cooperation with Russia in the defense industry, conducted if not less than rabid anti-Russian campaign in the media and forced Ukrainization of the South-East of Ukraine.
According to forecasts of long cycles of political activity, the peak international military and political conflicts accounted for 2016-2018.
If not for the breakdown of Ukraine into a political crisis, by this time she was entirely under the control of NATO and would conduct anti-Russian policy of blocking the work of the black sea fleet and provoking ethnic conflicts in Crimea with the aim of destroying the Pro-Russian NGOs and Stripping the South-Eastern regions from Russian influence.
Russia would be in a much worse position than they are now, after the reunification of the Crimea and establishment of the Nazi regime in Kiev, the illegitimacy and criminal actions doom Ukraine to catastrophe and collapse.
Of course that has engulfed Ukraine's socio-economic collapse and increasing chaos in this area do not meet the objectives of Russia, which is vitally interested in the safe and successful development of Ukraine, which is part of the Russian world and is inextricably linked with Russia technologically, economically and spiritually.
Catastrophic scenario could be avoided if Yanukovych did not surrender to the American and European emissaries, defended the state from the Nazi rebellion and prevented the coup. However, for US it would be tantamount to defeat in the long anti-Russian campaign they waged in Ukraine throughout the post-Soviet period.
So they did everything possible, using all its political, informational and financial resources to organize a coup and transfer of power over Ukraine to his proteges. For this adventure, the US will have to pay their ideological and political leadership, if Russia will conduct a competent and vigorous defense of themselves and the world from the American policy of unleashing a chaotic world war.
From 2017, the U.S. will begin a new election cycle, which, apparently, will be involved in Russophobia as the ideological basis they fomented world war. However, by this time the crisis in the American financial system can result in reduction of budget expenditures, depreciation of the dollar and a perceived deterioration of living standards of the population.
External aggression the United States can drown in the middle East, to fail in Afghanistan and Iraq. Pressure of internal problems and crises in foreign policy, on the one hand, will provoke the growth of aggressiveness of the American leadership, and, on the other hand, to weaken his position.
As proof Pantin, in the case of intellectual, economic and military mobilization in Russia has a chance not to lose in conflict 2015-2018 gg., as the US and its satellites will not be ready to open aggression.
According to the same forecast the most dangerous period for Russia will come in early 2020-ies, when begin retooling developed countries and China, and the United States and other Western countries will come out of depression 2008-2018 and make a new technological leap.
In the period 2021-2025 Russia may again sharply falling behind in technological and economic terms that devalue its defense capabilities and dramatically enhance internal social and ethnic conflicts, as happened with the USSR in the late 1980s.
American analysts from the CIA and other agencies directly bet on the collapse of Russia from the inside after 2020 due to internal social and ethnic conflicts, initiated from the outside. This is also evidenced by the appointment of new US Ambassador to Russia's most famous organizer of "color revolutions" and coups in the former Soviet Union John Tefft.
The most dangerous for Russia are ethnic conflicts that will be artificially to burn from the outside and from the inside, using social inequality, inequality between regions and economic problems.
To this end, the United States consistently cultivate among the Russian political, business and intellectual elite of his "fifth column", allocating for this purpose, according to some estimates, up to $ 10 billion. a year.
To avoid this most negative scenario, leading to the disintegration of the country, the necessary system of internal and external policy of strengthening national security, ensuring economic sustainability, enhancing international competitiveness and rapid development of the national economy, social mobilization and modernization of the military-industrial complex.
By 2017, when the US starts openly and on all fronts to threaten Russia, the Russian army should have modern and effective weapons, Russian society should be United and confident in their abilities, the Russian intellectual elite – own achievements the new technological order, the economy – to be wave of growth of new technological order, and Russian diplomacy – to organize a broad anti-war coalition of countries capable of concerted action to stop American aggression.
We have already mentioned the necessity of creating a wide international coalition of countries that are not interested in unleashing a new world war. Such a coalition is needed not only to prevent but also to win it, if war be inevitable.
2. Anti-war international coalition
Anti-war international coalition could include:
European countries who are being drawn into a war against Russia contrary to their national interests;
– BRICS countries, economic growth which can be organized torpedoed by the US to destabilize;
– Korea, Indo-China countries which are not interested in worsening relations with Russia;
– the countries of the Middle East, for which a world war would mean the escalation of regional conflicts;
– Latin American countries of the Bolivarian Alliance for which the unwinding of a new world war is a threat of direct invasion of the United States;
the developing countries of the G77, the successor of the Movement of non – aligned countries traditionally opposed to wars for a just world order.
As the motivation of creating such a coalition should nominate common to all its members the threat of deployment of the U.S. global chaotic war.
An important condition for the successful creation of such a coalition is to deprive the U.S. monopoly on the ideological dominance by sequential exposure of the anti-human consequences of their interventions, their soldiers committed mass murder of civilians, the devastating results of the Board of the American stooges in various countries.
You need to destroy the image of American infallibility, demonstrating the cynicism and deception on the part of American leaders, the disastrous consequences of their policies of double standards, incompetence and ignorance of American officials and politicians.
Influential allies in creating the anti-war coalition could become religious organizations that oppose the planting cult of permissiveness and corruption, undermining the family and other human values.
They would help the coalition members to develop and offer the world a new unifying ideology emanating from the recovery unshakable moral constraints of human arbitrariness.
Constructive role could be played by international humanitarian and anti-fascist organizations. Ally could become the world's scientific and expert community, acting from the standpoint of sustainable development and generating uniting humanity development projects.
The actions of the anti-war coalition should be aimed not only at exposing and destroying the political dominance of the United States, but, above all, at undermining us military-political power based on the emission of the dollar as a world currency.
In case of further aggressive actions of the US in fomenting world war, they should include the refusal to use the dollar in mutual trade and dollar instruments for placement of foreign exchange reserves.
Antiwar coalition should have a positive program device global financial and economic architecture on the principles of mutual benefit, fairness, and respect for national sovereignty.
We have already mentioned the necessary measures for financial stabilization and increasing the efficiency of financial market regulation, banking, financial and investment institutions, stimulate the growth of new technological structure and progressive structural changes, the formation of appropriate new institutions. They need to eliminate the fundamental causes of the global crisis, among which the most important are the following:
– lack of control issue the world's reserve currency, the misuse of issuers monopoly position in their own interests at the price of increasing disproportions and destructive tendencies in the global financial and economic system;
– inability of existing mechanisms regulating banking operations and financial institutions to protect against excessive risk and the emergence of financial bubbles;
– the exhaustion of the limits to growth of the dominant technological system and the failure conditions for the formation of a new, including a lack of investment for the widespread introduction of cluster components of its base technologies.
3. The anti-crisis program of the anti-war coalition
Anti-war coalition needs to act with a positive program of measures to resolve the global crisis by addressing its causes and create stable conditions for the functioning of the global financial market and international financial and monetary exchange on a mutually beneficial basis, the development of international industrial cooperation, world trade in goods and technology.
These conditions should enable national monetary authorities to arrange loans for the development of productions of new technological mode and modernization of the economy based on it, stimulating innovation and business activity in the promising areas of economic growth.
To do this, the country issuing the world's reserve currency should ensure their sustainability by adhering to certain restrictions on public debt and deficit of payments and trade balances.
In addition, they should abide by appropriate requirements for transparency of their mechanisms of issuance of their currencies, providing opportunities for their unimpeded exchange for all traded in their territory assets.
An important requirement for issuers of world reserve currencies should be compliance with the rules of fair competition and non-discriminatory access to their financial markets. While the rest of the countries that observe the same limitations, it is necessary to provide the possibility of using their national currencies as a tool of foreign trade and currency exchange, including their use as a backup to the other partner countries.
It is advisable to introduce the classification of the national currency, aspiring to the role of global or regional reserve currencies, categories depending on the compliance by their issuers meet your specific requirements.
Simultaneously with the introduction of requirements for issuers of world reserve currencies should tighten control over capital flow in order to prevent speculative attacks that are destabilizing the global and national monetary and financial system.
To do this, the coalition needs to introduce a ban on transactions of its residents with offshore zones, as well as to prevent the schemes of refinancing of banks and corporations established with the participation of offshore residents. It is also advisable to restrict the use in international settlements, currency issuers which do not comply with the established requirements.
To determine the requirements for issuers of world reserve currencies and compliance monitoring is necessary to conduct a deep reform of the international financial institutions to ensure equitable representation of the participating countries according to objective criteria from the set of attributes relative weight of each of them in the global production, trade, Finance, natural potential and population.
This same criterion can be formed by a basket of currencies as the release of a new SDR, against which can be defined by rates of all national currencies, including the world's reserve. Initially, this basket may include currencies of those countries in the coalition who agree to commit themselves to compliance.
The implementation of such large-scale reforms requires an appropriate legal and institutional support. This can be done by making the decisions of the coalition status of the international obligations of stakeholders in their implementation countries, as well as relying on the UN institutions and authorized international organizations.
To stimulate the global spread of socially significant achievements the new technological order, you need to deploy an international system of strategic planning of global socio-economic development, including the development of long-term forecasts of scientific and technological development, the development prospects of the world economy, regional groupings and major countries, identifying opportunities to overcome existing imbalances, including gaps in the development of advanced and underdeveloped countries, and the choice of development priorities and indicative plans of the international organizations.
The US and the G7 countries, most likely, rejected the above proposals for reforming the global financial system without discussion, as their implementation would undermine their monopoly uncontrolled emission of world currencies. The current regime of exchange of results and factors of economic activity between developing and developed countries the latter are quite satisfied.
Reap great benefits from emission of global currencies, leading Western countries impede access to private markets assets, technology and labor, introducing new restrictions.
As shown by US policy, the reform of the global financial system on the basis of equity, mutual benefit and respect for sovereignty they prefer inciting a world of chaotic war to protect its dominant position. Therefore, in order to be efficient and effective, the antiwar coalition should have sufficient defenses to repel U.S. aggression and attempts of military-political destabilization in any part of the world.
It is necessary to expand the format of the CSTO, to involve China, Vietnam, Syria, Cuba, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, to create partnerships for peace with India, Iran, Venezuela, Brazil, and other countries threatened by American aggression.
Having comparable to NATO military-political and economic power, the anti-war coalition could win in the United States imposed the confrontation and regardless of their desire to proceed with the reform of the world financial-monetary system for sustainable economic development in both global and all national economies.
In case of failure of the G7 countries to "move up" in the governing bodies of international financial institutions anti-war coalition must have enough synergy to create alternative global regulators.
To initiate the creation of such a coalition on the basis of the BRICS, starting with addressing the issues of ensuring their economic security, including:
– the creation of a universal payment system for BRICS countries and issue a common payment card BRICS uniting China UnionPay, the Brazilian ELO, Indian RuPay, and Russian payment systems;
– the creation of an independent from the US and EU systems of information exchange, similar to SWIFT;
– the transition to use their of rating agencies.
A leading role in creating the anti-war coalition will have to take Russia as it is in a more vulnerable position and without the creation of such a coalition will not be able to win against it unleashed a world war.
If Russia will not create a coalition formed by the US anti-Russian coalition can absorb or neutralize potential Russian allies. So provoked the Americans to war in Europe against Russia may be beneficial to China.
Following the Chinese wisdom about the clever monkey, in a tree awaiting the completion of the fight two tigers to assign then prey, they may choose a strategy of non-interference.
Mutual weakening of the US, the EU and Russia makes it easier for China's global leadership. Brazil might succumb to US pressure. India – inward to solve their internal problems.
Russia has no less than the United States, the historical experience of leadership in world politics, the necessary spiritual authority and sufficient military-technical power. But to claim leadership, the Russian public consciousness to get rid of the inferiority complex instilled Pro-Western media in the period of Gorbachev's perestroika and American dominance in the Yeltsin regime.
We need to restore historical pride of the Russian people for centuries of persistent creation of civilization, uniting many Nations and cultures and more than once saved Europe and humanity from self-destruction. To return the understanding of the historical continuity of the role of the Russian world in the creation of human culture, from Kievan Rus, who became the spiritual successor of the Byzantine Empire to the modern Russian Federation, is the successor to the Soviet Union and the Russian Empire.
In this context, it should present the Eurasian integration process as a global project of restoration of a common space of development for centuries lived together, cooperated and mutually enriching relations with each other Nations from Lisbon to Vladivostok and from St. Petersburg to Colombo.
The necessary internal harmonisation of the Russian public consciousness that prevents the breakdown like in Nazism, and cosmopolitanism. First of all, we are talking about introduction of the Russian public strengthen Russia of attitudes, such as "any nationalism – Russian, Ukrainian, Chechen, Tatar, Jewish... – there is a preliminary form of Nazism", "where officials do their jobs, no one – neither the citizens nor the peoples – there are no reasons for protests," "at least caused us harm, primarily blame ourselves – that were weak and vulnerable" and the like.
In addition to the harmonization of interethnic relations, such installations will allow you to break the activity in Russia, the local agents of foreign influence that have succeeded in the juggling of meanings and substitution of concepts.
Russia will not be able to organize resistance to U.S. aggression, if not restore the ability of independent development. Despite the terrible destruction of scientific and production potential and degradation of industry, Russia still retains sufficient for a successful development of intellectual, natural and economic potential.
But its full use is not possible under the current Pro-American economic policies that encourage the export of capital and the offshoring of the economy, limiting domestic credit lending, the U.S. and its NATO allies through the deployment of foreign exchange reserves into their bonds.
4. The economic security of Russia
Experience of crisis of 2008 has revealed a high vulnerability of the Russian economy from the global financial market regulation which is discriminatory for Russia ways, including underestimation of credit ratings, the presentation of non-uniform requirements for openness of the domestic market and compliance with financial restrictions, the imposition of mechanisms of unequal foreign economic exchange, in which Russia annually loses about $ 100 billion.
Including about $ 60 billion. leaves the country in the form of a surplus on income from foreign loans and investments and about $ 50 billion. is the illegal capital outflow (Fig.9). The accumulated volume reached 0.5 trillion dollars total foreign direct investment of Russian residents is about $ 1 trillion. exported capital.
Loss of budget revenues due to leakage of capital made in 2012 to 839 billion rubles (1.3% of GDP). Total losses due to budgetary system ofshorizatsii economy, capital flight and other operations on tax evasion is estimated at 2012 5 trillion rubles.
Special threat to national security in the context of growing global instability creates the situation with the registration of ownership of most of the major Russian private corporations and their assets (80%) in offshore areas, where the majority of operations with drug trafficking. They also account for about 85% of accumulated FDI in Russia, and from Russia.
The growing issue unsecured world currencies creates favorable conditions for absorption of transferred to the offshore jurisdiction of the Russian assets by foreign capital, which threatens the economic sovereignty of the country.
The growth of the above threats in excess of the critical parameters requires to promptly implement the following measures to ensure the economic security of Russia in conditions of growing global instability. In order to deoffshorisation and halt the illegal export of capital:
1. Legislation to introduce the concept of "national company" that meets the requirements: registration, tax residency and primary operations in Russia, supplies a controlling stake to Russian residents having no affiliation with foreign entities and jurisdictions.
Only the national companies and Russian citizens, residents should have access to mineral resources and other natural resources, government contracts, state programs, state subsidies, loans, concessions, property, property management, housing and infrastructure construction, to operations with the savings of the population, as well as other strategically important for the state and sensitive activities.
2. To oblige the ultimate owners of the shares of Russian strategic enterprises to register their rights of ownership in the Russian registrars coming out of the offshore shadow.
3. To conclude agreements on the exchange of tax information with offshore companies, denounce the existing agreement with them about the avoidance of double taxation, including Cyprus and Luxembourg, which are transit offshore companies. To define a single list of offshore companies, including inside ansorov.
4. To prohibit the transfer of assets in offshore jurisdictions that have not signed agreements on the exchange of tax information according to the model of transparency developed by the OECD.
5. To be imposed on offshore companies owned by Russian residents, the requirements of the Russian legislation on providing information about the participants of company (shareholders, depositors, beneficiaries), as well as disclosure of tax information for tax purposes in Russia all income derived from Russian sources under threat of establishing a 30% tax on all transactions with "not cooperating" offshore companies.
6. To create a black list of foreign banks involved in dubious financial schemes with Russian companies and banks, attributing operations with them to the category of doubtful.
7. To enter the licensing procedure for offshore operations of Russian companies with state participation.
8. To take measures to reduce the tax loss from unauthorized export of capital:
1) the VAT refund to exporters only after export proceeds;
2) the collection of advance VAT payments authorized banks when transferring suppliers to non-resident import advances;
3) the introduction of penalties for overdue receivables for import contracts, non-receipt of export proceeds, as well as other types of illicit export of capital in the amount of its value.
9. Stop include non-operating expenses (deductible) bad debts of non-residents of the Russian enterprises. Claims against the Manager for compensation of damage to the enterprise and the state in case of such debts.
10. To toughen administrative and a criminal liability for illegal export of capital from the territory of the member States of the Customs Union, including in the form of sham foreign trade and credit transactions, payment of excessive interest on foreign loans.
11. To impose taxes on speculative financial transactions and net capital outflow.
In terms of the unfolding global chaotic war that promises to be lasting, must also be taken urgent measures to reduce external dependence and vulnerability of the Russian economy by economic sanctions by the US and its allies:
– conclusion of foreign exchange reserves and savings of corporations of assets in dollars in gold and currency friendly countries;
– transition to payment for export of hydrocarbons, metals, timber, and military equipment, on the one hand, and imports of consumer goods, on the other hand, in rubles;
– transition to national currencies in mutual trade in the EEU, CIS, BRICS, SCO;
– cessation of borrowing by state-controlled corporations abroad, the gradual substitution of foreign currency loans rouble denominated loans of state-owned commercial banks due to their target of refinancing by the Central Bank at the appropriate percentage;
– limitation of guarantees of contributions of citizens in the framework of the Deposit insurance system only ruble deposits with a simultaneous increase in norms of obligatory reserves on deposits in foreign currency;
– improving the effectiveness of exchange controls, the introduction of advance notice of the operations for the export of capital, establishing limits on the increase in foreign currency position of commercial banks;
– ending discrimination against domestic borrowers and issuers to foreign (in the calculation of liquidity indicators, capital adequacy etc. of the Central Bank should not assume the obligations of non-residents and foreign countries more reliable and liquid than similar obligations of residents and the Russian state);
– the introduction of national standards for credit rating agencies and the use of estimates exclusively Russian rating agencies in government regulation;
– introduction of restrictions on the volume of off-balance-sheet foreign assets and liabilities to non-residents on derivatives of Russian organizations, and investments of Russian enterprises in foreign securities, including government bonds, U.S. and other foreign countries with high budget deficit or public debt;
– mandatory initial placement of Russian issuers on domestic trading floors;
– the expansion and deepening of Eurasian economic integration.
It is necessary to intensify work on the involvement in the Eurasian integration process of our traditional partners, to expedite the signing of the agreement on free trade zone with Vietnam, to start negotiations with India, Syria, Venezuela, Cuba and other countries of the Association of the "Bolivarian Alliance".
To become the hub of Eurasian economic integration and leader of the anti-war coalition in a confrontation with the United States, Russia must become attractive, demonstrating social stability and a decent quality of life, high scientific-technical and intellectual level, which is impossible without modernization and rapid economic development.
The necessary economic policy should be based on understanding of structural changes and prospects of socio-economic development, as well as identifying national competitive advantages, the activation of which is capable of achieving sustainable and rapid production growth.
5. The strategy of priority development of the economy
As shown above, the global crisis associated with the change of long waves of economic conjuncture. Exit is associated with the "storm" of innovation, paving the way for the formation of a new technological order.
As the flow in building components of its industry remaining after the collapse of the financial bubbles capital will form a new long wave of economic conditions.
It was during these periods of global technological shifts, there is a "window of opportunity for lagging countries to get ahead and make the "economic miracle". This requires a powerful initiating momentum to focus the available resources on promising directions of development of new technological order and ahead of other countries in the deployment of production and marketing of at least part of its key products.
The key idea required the development strategy is to advance the development of the basic industries of the new technological order and the speedy withdrawal of the Russian economy on the associated new long wave of growth. This requires concentration of resources in the development of the components of its advanced manufacturing and technological complexes, which requires the focused work of national financial and investment system, including the mechanisms of monetary, fiscal, industrial and foreign trade policy.
They need to focus on the formation of the nucleus of the new technological order and the achievement of synergetic effect of forming clusters of new industries, which implies the subordination of macroeconomic policy to the priorities of long-term economic development.
The last decade, despite the crisis, the cost of the development components of the new way of technology and the scale of their application is growing in advanced countries, with a rate of about 35% per year. Steady and rapid growth of the nucleus of the new technological structure, consisting of a set of paired nano-, bio - and information and communication technologies, creates the material basis for a new long wave of economic recovery.
It will take another 3-5 years for the formation of technological trajectories of this climb, following which will radically change the structure of the modern economy, the composition of the leading industries of the largest corporations and leading countries.
If Russia during this time will not be able to make a technological breakthrough in the development of the basic industries of the new technological order, the technological gap between the advanced countries will begin to grow rapidly, and the economy for another 20-30 years would be locked in the trap catch-up development, resource specialization and unequal external economic exchange.
The increasing technological gap would undermine the national security system and national defense, would deprive her of the ability to effectively counter threats of a new world war.
As the experience of making technological breakthroughs in the newly industrialized countries, postwar Japan, modern China, and in our country, the increase of investment and innovative activity implies an increase in the rate of accumulation to 35-40% of GDP.
Thus, to "stay on the crest of the" current phase a new wave of economic growth, investments in production development of new technological order are projected to double every year.
However, be aware that rapid development strategy can be realized in the utilization of advanced technologies. Lagging industries have pursued a strategy of dynamic catch-up, assuming widespread adoption of modern technologies abroad and their development with further improvement.
In the processing industries following this strategy can give a multiple increase in output of finished products per unit of used raw materials, which for the timber and petrochemical industries is tenfold that for metallurgical and chemical industry – five times, for agriculture – three times.
Thus, the optimum development strategy must combine: a leadership strategy in those areas where the Russian scientific-industrial complex is at an advanced technological level, and the dynamic catch-up in other directions.
In relation to the R & d sector appropriate strategy ahead of commercialization of results of fundamental and applied research. To implement this optimal set of strategies need a comprehensive public policy, including:
– creation of system of strategic planning, able to identify promising areas of economic growth, as well as to direct the activity of government development institutions in their development;
– providing necessary for growth of new technological order in the macroeconomic environment;
– formation of mechanisms of stimulation of innovative and investment activity, realization of projects of creation and development of production and technological systems of new technological way, modernization of the economy based on them;
creation of a favorable investment climate and business environment, encourage entrepreneurial activity in the development of new technologies;
– maintain the necessary conditions of expanded reproduction of human capital and of development of intellectual potential.
Most bottleneck hampering the implementation of the strategy of priority development, is the lack of internal long-term cheap credit.
International and our own historical experience of successful structural adjustment of the economy indicate the need for a sharp increase in investment volume for the timely formation of a new technological order. The main source of financing of investment growth is an appropriate expansion of domestic credit (Table.3).
6. The transition to a sovereign monetary policy
Currently, due to the weakness of the internal mechanisms of crediting of the Russian economy can not develop independently, following the external demand for raw materials and foreign investors.
For the formation of domestic sources of long-term loans for modernization and development of the economy required a transition to a policy of money supply, provided by the domestic money demand from the real sector of the economy and the state as well as national savings, as is done in developed and successfully developing countries.
To ensure expanded reproduction of the Russian economy requires significant improvements in the level of monetization, the expansion of credit and capacity of the banking system. Urgent measures are needed to stabilize it, which requires increasing the supply of liquidity and enhance the role of the Central Bank as lender of last resort.
In contrast, the economies of the countries-issuers of reserve currencies, the main problems in the Russian economy is not caused by excess money supply and related financial bubbles, and chronic nedoponyata economy, which worked for a long time "wear" due to acute shortage of loans and investments.
The necessary level of money supply to a rise in investment and innovation activity should be determined by the money demand from the real sector of the economy and state development institutions in regulating the value of the refinancing rate.
The transition to inflation targeting should not come at the expense of foregoing the other objectives of macroeconomic policies, including maintaining a stable exchange rate, growth, investment, production and employment. These objectives can be ranked by priority and be in the form of restrictions gostosas through flexible use of available tools of state regulation of monetary and foreign exchange sphere.
In this context, priority should be given to increased production and investment in the context of limits on inflation and the exchange rate of the ruble. To keep inflation within the prescribed limits, a comprehensive system of measures on pricing and price policy, currency and banking regulation, development of competition.
The monetary policy instruments should ensure an adequate money supply for the expanded reproduction and sustainable development of the economy. In the goal state monetary policy and the Bank of Russia should be included the maintenance of investment activity at the level necessary to ensure sustained economic growth with full employment.
A comprehensive approach is necessary to the formation of monetary policy in conjunction with the objectives of economic development and objectives of fiscal, industrial and structural policy, relying on internal sources and mechanisms of refinancing of credit institutions, confined to lending to the real sector of economy and investment in development priorities.
This can be done by using indirect (refinancing bail bonds, promissory notes and other obligations of solvent enterprises) and direct (co-financing of state programs, the provision of government guarantees, lending to development institutions, project financing) ways of organizing the money supply.
7. The establishment of institutions and mechanisms of development
The above described steps to establish institutions of long-term crediting of production development and release of innovative activities from taxation must be supplemented with venture financing promising but risky scientific and technological developments, as well as methods of preferential crediting innovative and investment projects to develop promising industries of the new technological order.
You need to improve the effectiveness of development institutions, directing their activity to support the projects providing domestic leadership in production and technological cooperation.
In conditions of acute international technological competition, it is important to support mainly the projects of international production cooperation in which the Russian participants have the opportunity to obtain intellectual rent. These are projects that implement either the domestic scientific-technical developments or complementary to the acquisition of licenses for the use of advanced foreign technologies.
Industrial Assembly, even with substantial localization of production, these requirements are not met. And moreover, they do not correspond to the import of foreign technology, if it is not used as a critically important means of domestic production. Discontinue the use of the resources of development institutions to import foreign technology end-use, as well as the provision for these purposes of tax and customs benefits.
The organization of the existing scientific and production potential in the competitive structure involves the active policy of the state for growing successful high-tech businesses.
By themselves, the institutions of market self-organization in an open economy and lack of competitiveness of most Russian companies will not provide recovery of the Russian manufacturing industry. You must restore the long production chains development and production of high-tech products.
This should, on the one hand, to hold a reunion torn privatization conjugate technology industries, and, on the other hand, to stimulate the development of new high-tech companies, has proved its competitiveness.
To solve the first problem, the state may use the revaluation surplus of assets, including due to unrecorded in the privatization of property rights to land and intellectual property. The second challenge is achieved through the use of various industrial policy instruments: soft loans, state procurement, subsidies of scientific research, etc.
Of particular importance is the establishment of a network of domestic engineering companies. After the elimination of a large part of the design institutes, the industrial integrators was occupied by foreign engineering company focused on the acquisition of foreign equipment.
Urgent action is needed to stimulate the formation of engineering companies, owning modern technologies of designing and acquisition of industrial facilities, as well as planning life cycle of complex types of equipment.
The formation of a new technological system occurs through the formation of clusters conjugate technology industries generated on the spread of key technologies.
A leading role in coordinating innovation processes in clusters of technologically associated production play large companies and business groups. They are system integrators of the innovation process, which takes place in different parts of the innovation system. The establishment is large enough to maintain competition among such companies in all sectors of the economy is a key challenge of industrial policy.
A necessary condition for modernization and improving competitiveness of large enterprises is to radically improve the quality of management. In the transition to the knowledge economy, where the main production factor is human capital, it is advisable to activate the creative potential of employees by implementing modern ways of involving workers in the management of the enterprise.
Along with the owners of capital (owners) in the enterprise management system appropriate to include owners of other types of resources: management responsibility (managers), labor (workers) and knowledge (experts). This requires the early adoption of relevant legal norms.
For formation competitive in the world market of integrated corporate structures with strong research base, long-term motivation and considerable financial resources necessary to ensure a multiple increase in the concentration of resources, the only way in which the current environment is the involvement of state capital in the corporate sector.
The required expansion of the high-tech core of the domestic industry today is only possible on the basis of state structures, including public corporations and banks, research and project institutes, technoparks and other elements of innovation infrastructure.
All these elements must work as a unified scientific, production and financial system in line with the strategic plans and development programmes of respective industries and sectors of the economy. This development should be supported by long-term loans, which in the current environment in the required quantities can be provided only by state-owned banks that rely on refinancing by the Central Bank.
The use of the public sector as the basis for the objectives of rapid economic development does not mean crowding out or nationalization of private entities. On the contrary, the public sector generated by economic activity will stimulate the growth of private enterprises. Cooperation with state corporations will provide them with sustainable markets and sources of new technologies, expand opportunities for development.
However, the state's key role in the formation of competitive structures, high-tech industry determines the appropriate requirements management of state assets.
To ensure the successful development of the economy in the current environment of large-scale structural changes objectively necessary to strengthen the role of the state, including as an owner of strategic assets. This is necessary for concentration of resources in key areas of the new technological order and to eliminate the technological gap in existing industries.
This process is currently in advanced countries with developed market economies, against which the Russian government's line on the privatization of the assets looks ill-timed.
As shown above, the ongoing transition from the American to the Asian century cycle of accumulation is accompanied by a radical revision of relations between the state and business on the basis of social partnership and harmonious combination of interests in which the interests of society are of predominant importance.
Thus the key role played by the regulatory institutions of private initiative, not the ratio of public and private ownership in the economy, which can vary widely.
The experience of the Asian "tigers" shows that in the framework of a well-functioning system of strategic management and public-private partnerships to achieve outstanding results with domination as private property ("Japan Incorporated") and the public sector (the Chinese market socialism).
8. Consolidation companies
The implementation described above measures of priority development and modernization of the economy requires a high coherence and a certain solidarity of major social groups to achieve its goals. This implies a drastic reduction of social inequality, generating antagonistic relations and the alienated attitude of citizens to the policy of the state. To do this:
– raising the minimum wage to the level of the real value of the basic consumer basket, as well as reviewing its contents, taking into account actual consumption patterns of the population needs in health, education, etc.;
– raising the minimum wage to the poverty line;
– encourage the creation of new jobs, promotion of small and medium business;
– introduction of a progressive scale of taxation of incomes, inheritances and luxuries.
Introduction progressive scale of tax individuals will free from taxation part of the profits of enterprises allocated for investment, by increasing depreciation up to the level of developed countries (60-70% in the financing of investment). At the same time it is necessary to legislatively establish control over the expenditure of depreciation.
Additional reserves of growth of production can give the change in the net value added, which today stimulates the raw material orientation of the economy and reduce its competitiveness.
In order to simplify the tax system, reduce the cost of its administration, reduce tax evasion, stimulate business and innovation activity it is expedient to replace the value added tax is easier to administer the sales tax (EPT) levied only at the stage of final consumption.
The abolition of VAT released for productive activities about a million accountants will release the company's working capital for increasing production and investment.
Harmonization of the tax system must be accompanied by the required for successful social development parameters of financing of the social sphere. Based on the proportions of the use of the GDP of developed countries, a doubling of health expenditure and increase expenditure on education to GDP in half.
Given the fact that the share of States in expenditure on education should not fall below 80%, while health is below 65%, the total state expenditure on the reproduction and improvement of human resources quality should be consistently increased to 20% of GDP with a significant increase in their efficiency.
Along with an increase in state appropriations for this purpose a necessary condition of activation of human potential should be the improvement of moral climate in society through the revival of traditional spiritual values.
This requires the restoration of educational traditions in the education system, the moral recovery media, to curb propaganda of immoral standards of behavior, promiscuity, violence and sodomy.
Requires active and systematic cultural policy of the state for the improvement of the public consciousness, orientation of citizens to creative activity, education of creative, Patriotic and law-abiding younger generation. Thus as a matter of moral improvement needs the very system of government.
Low economic growth, poor quality of public services and business environment, the enormous export of capital and the degradation of the scientific-industrial potential of the country are the result of low quality of governance, riddled with corruption and incompetence.
The elimination of these vices requires concerted efforts in personnel policy and in establishing norms on the responsibilities of both government officials and public authorities for the proper discharge of their duties.
The basis of the recruitment system should be based on the principles of a meritocratic approach, recruitment criteria should be clearly established, and the relations of clientelism – is minimized. Competitive order of replacement of posts must be accompanied by a public evaluation of officials on a scale of objective indicators.
There should be a direct communication between track officials and objective indicators of their performance. It is necessary to ensure political neutrality of the public service.
To cleanse the public service from corruption it is advisable to create a system of monitoring the activities of public servants from the institutions of civil society, including the right of citizens to demand the resignation of any officer for improper performance of their duties.
You should also provide a procedure for the automatic granting of the requested individuals or legal entities of services in the case of statements of facts of extortion of bribes.
It is necessary to restore the institution of property confiscation as a criminal sanction, and also set for officials of administrative punishment in the form of disqualification as a measure of responsibility for violation of legislation on organization of provision of state services.
The mechanism responsible for the results of the activities should be established for government agencies, which should adopt a Federal law with the establishment of a system of indicators of efficiency of their activities. It is also advisable to adopt a Federal law establishing a system of indicators of the level and quality of life of the population to evaluate the activities of the Federal government as a whole.
The system implementation of the principle of personal responsibility for objective results activities at all levels of governance not only in government but in the private sector, is a necessary condition for the successful implementation of the above proposed system of measures to ensure economic security and sustainable development of Russia. It provides a manifold increase in the resources devoted for development and modernization of the economy under state control.
The introduction of effective mechanisms to hold managers accountable for the achievement of goals is an important condition for the effective management and implementation of the strategy of outstripping development of economy are necessary not only for Russia's successful development, but also to win against her in the unfolding world of chaotic war.
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