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Korea: and if you lose US?
Material posted: Ponomarenko Oleg J.Publication date: 21-12-2017

Whoever declared himself the winner, but in war there are no winners, but all losers.

Arthur Chamberlain

The current situation around North Korean nuclear and missile programs raises a lot of questions and comments. Given the rhetoric of the American leader and administration that took place, the recent apparent softening of the US is interpreted as a defeat. In particular, the opinion expressed in the article of Irina Alksnis "USA lost to North Korea: a cunning plan trump" in RIA Novosti). The article begins with the words "United States "threw out the white flag" in its confrontation with the DPRK. Of course, technically it was furnished very differently, but the essence remains the same."*

Such opinions are not uncommon. But it is not simplified if it look?

Immediately point out one detail in the material I. Alksnis. Regional allies – Japan and South Korea refused on sanctions. On the contrary, on December 15 reported on the extension of unilateral sanctions from Japan.

However, it is really details, but look at the situation more broadly. Yes, the sanctions actually are very rudimentary and these cannot radically change the behavior of the enemy, which, in varying degrees, is S. Korea for the United States, South Korea and Japan. It could do more serious sanctions, the isolation of the country, the blocking required by the Economics of supply from the outside. But such a scenario seems now unrealistic, especially given such a neighbor as China, and the position of other countries. And there must be realistic to share the expressions of concern by China's actions of S. Korea and the actions or inaction of China.

A military solution from the United States, which was actively discussed in recent times, non-productive, even if not to consider the application of the Northmen's weapons of mass destruction. Why? Because extremely vulnerable neighbor is economically developed ally of the Americans. Given the purely military difficulties, war can do southerners do enormous damage, in particular, understands, and noted in their speeches the Minister of defence of the USA George. Mattis.

The purely military difficulties, if brief are the geographical features of the theater of military operations, level of fortification, pre-established infrastructure, equipping the armed forces of northerners certain types of weapons, in particular, the presence of numerous conventional and rocket artillery of various calibers and firing range, and in the presence of other important circumstances.

By the way, the question of the possible use of nuclear weapons by northerners is not so simple. It's one thing to threaten to use, the other is really to use it, thus giving a reason to use against his country of all possible means to complete destruction. But that's a separate issue.

While you can never rule out the possibility of the outbreak of war. The story reminds us of that most bloody catastrophes of the twentieth century, when rational soobrazuya on maloveroyatno war in a changed world has been disproved by reality.

However, you have to wonder what is the true intention of the United States. Fundamental for them to maintain supremacy, which could be achieved by either destruction of the enemy, or – in case of impossibility or irrationality of such a scenario, its weakening and maintaining an acceptable state of the enemy.

My guess is that the situation around S. Korea about the currently existing level, meets the U.S. interests. This "smoldering" point makes it possible to justify: 1. large-scale military presence in the region; 2. additional programs military construction, including the protection of the continental United States missile defense systems; 3. the development of new drums and oboronitelnye systems due to the fact that existing tools do not allow an acceptable way to deal with a specific type of enemy; 4. the necessity of bloc politics, mutual efforts together with the South and Japan in various fields; 5. additional export sales of more expensive systems to its allies, such as the purchase of 2 sets of Aegis Ashore Japan, reported on December 19. It also gives Foundation for Japan and South Korea to increase its military power, especially the development of military-technical potential, which simultaneously serves not just the interests and development of the MIC countries, and its expansion into foreign markets. Yu . Korea is a growing "tiger" of the world market of military equipment. Already forgotten about the fact that the country was in such growing Asian "tigers" in Asia in General economic terms. Now it is perceived as an established advanced industrial country. In the same way and its defense industry can gain a foothold in the world elite, which to a certain extent is already happening. Japan plus gets the arguments in favor of departure from the known limitations in the field of military construction, which the country adhered.

Both key ally of the Americans are advanced major economies, and the war they do not need, especially S. Korea. The results of the preceding development are to some extent lost, and their place is just taken by the others. This is what the epigraph with the words of Arthur Chamberlain.

Northerners also, spending on military needs a huge proportion of the resources of the country, being a country with a completely different level of development than South Korea and Japan, in contrast to its neighbors does not improve their situation, and the gap in socio-economic development is growing. Increase the gap and may be one of the objectives of the United States, along with other aforementioned.

No matter whether the actual, not declared, the US position is the result of rational choice or set of circumstances, the balance of different interests, but the explanation seems that way. And the situation around S. Korea perceived as "losing the US" may well be their gain.

Oleg Ponomarenko

Tags: assessment , USA , DPRK

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