Today, 1 June. The beginning of the calendar summer. Reaching the third month of the military phase of NATO intervention in the Libyan purely internal conflict clearly has lost momentum. In fact, a military solution is at an impasse. Neither tactically nor strategically NATO failed to beat his opponent, the Alliance did not solve any significant military task.
The loss of momentum for the upcoming definitely should lead to a cessation of offensive operations, regrouping and the creation of a new task. Otherwise, sets the over-voltage strength and a disaster. All previous industrial war, regardless of, were they the fronts or focal, immutable stated this truth.
Not to say that the military do not understand. They, unlike politicians, clearly imagine the military aspect of the problem. The newspaper "the guardian", which, of course, difficult to call a very respected source, however, draws attention to the article rear Admiral retired nick Hopkins, who suggests that "...the military campaign of NATO in Libya ignores the basics of the strategy and should be fully reviewed... the Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz, from which come all contemporary strategic doctrines must be rolling in his grave. Assuming that "everything in the strategy should be simple, although this does not mean that everything should be easy", he said success depends on a skillful combination of political aspirations (purpose) , military power (achieving) and adequate resources (funds). He also stressed that the strategy must change and adapt as circumstances change," writes Hopkins."
It is clear that the current military can't afford public statements of this kind, but obviously, their opinion is hardly at odds with the opinion of colleagues.
However, the problem is that initially a military task was planned in the absence of a political solution. Policy has not been able to formulate the goals and tasks that should be solved by force. Hardly found the formula for the departure of Gaddafi from power as a goal of war is not tenable - Qadhafi has no formal power, in addition, it is unclear what to do if suddenly he would be killed. To wind up the operation? Disembark? Continue presence?
Given that the coalition or not is losing, or they are under absolutely reasonable, the whole operation can be seen as military tactical training, but the cost of such doctrines is clearly and obviously beyond reasonable. In addition, in times of severe economic crisis holding such large-scale operation, devastating the warehouse and equipment wear - not to mention the consumption of very expensive other resources - poses Europeans commonplace financial issue of the return of this war. The costs of maintenance clearly outweigh the possible future income, and investments in the military industrial complex to replenish expended weapons will have to pay a new economic and financial challenges.
It is, of course, to build a theory coming from a mysterious U.S. strategy aimed at tying up Europeans in this strange war - but the Europeans are not complete dorks, not to realize the danger to themselves in this scenario.
In General, at this stage, quite clearly, the Alliance suffered a heavy strategic defeat, failing to convert the tempo of their offensive operations on any significant result. It is also clear that the military will find ways to convince politicians to complete this phase of the operation in Libya. But the question remains - after all aware of the need to stop the current phase, what happens next?
The problem is that the coalition had hit non-obvious, but very serious stalemate - the continued fighting is exhausting her, not bringing visible results. But the cessation of the attacks will immediately result in an intensification of government forces and of course, the collapse of the regime in Benghazi, which still exists and is held only thanks to the support of the coalition. Any other developments not foreseen, since the combat capabilities of the Libyan army even under air strikes allowed her to stop the advance of the rebels, and then, not without difficulty, but almost focal to suppress the resistance in Misrata, Berber triangle, on the extreme Western coast.
Mangazeisky the government actually "hanging in the air." Quite an elegant move Gaddafi to create tension on the lines transport oil from fields controlled by rebels to the coast has led to the fact that Bogazici only managed once to perform the surgery on the trading of oil products - obviously, being at the time of the rebellion in storage on the coast. To adjust the supply of oil from the depth of the territory, they can not. It is also clear that a purely remediesi the nature of the government leads to terrible theft - recently to me in the comments dereferenced, in which the Minister of Finance says about Benghazi cost the rebels "fuel" in the amount of 400 million (!) dollars. Even if we assume that an error has occurred on the order, and in this case, it is obvious that the money spent is clearly an inappropriate way. To put it simply - stolen.
It is clear that such a government without nourishment and support from the outside is doomed.
Thus, the coalition is the strategic dead end. What will be further steps - say is extremely difficult. Just stop the operation, may not - will follow the collapse in Eastern Libya. To continue is pointless. Sharply to change strategy - there is only one way - landing and ground operation. But the time for a ground operation lost - even if the decision will be made about its beginning. Weather on the coast is relatively comfortable - the temperature does not exceed 30 degrees, but in the hinterland, away from any serious military action you have to conduct a speech is impossible - even in 100 km from Tripoli daytime temperatures above a minimum of 10-15 degrees plus desert winds and sand storms. The technical superiority of kalichi in such circumstances will be dramatically offset.
I think that in June the coalition will be forced to outline their priorities and begin to change the nature of its presence. What is expressed is to say now, apparently, impossible. The ideal scenario for the coalition would, of course, the murder of Gaddafi - at any cost - and under this pretext to minimize the presence and wash your hands. Any other development is totally inappropriate for her.
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