The confrontation between the U.S. and Iran have moved, apparently, in the final stage. In light of the announced oil embargo of Iran will be forced to either slowly suffocate from the ceiling of the main flow of money in the budget or to start a war, hoping for a miracle or indecision of his enemies – while there is still power. Why did it come to this outcome than war threatens the region and the world and what are the predictions of the confrontation?
1. Iranian version of "red storm»
In a well-known, though not very objective book by Tom Clancy "Red storm" describes how the Soviet Union deprived the monstrous attack of the base oil refinery site, forced to start a war against NATO for the possession of resources. As strange as it sounds, but Iran is much closer to such a scenario than they were in the time of the USSR.
A few words for reference: Iran – the most powerful economy in the Arab world with a GDP of 852 billion dollars in 2007. The main merit in it belongs to oil exports, which Iran very much – not less than 18 billion tons, making the country the second after Saudi Arabia the exporter of oil in the world. Thus, not surprisingly, the economy is clearly not diversified enough: there is a strong bias in favor of "oil" to the detriment of all the other industrial and high-tech industries (as in Russia, only much worse, given the lack of inheritance of the USSR). In recent years a lot of effort is made to correct the imbalance, but for a powerful industrial and high-tech leap lacks the main thing – electricity. Why is the breakneck pace of the construction of nuclear power plants in Bushehr. In addition, Iran does not possess sufficient own refining capacity and is forced to import gasoline from abroad.
The US is preparing to "hit on the rise" of Iran. Having at its disposal a sufficient amount of cheap electricity and continuing at an accelerated pace to develop industry and science, Iran has a chance in the next 7-10 years to become autarky. This is terribly disadvantageous to the United States! The basis of the world energy system is still oil, and the control region of its main production flows out of hands. Had to leave Iraq, had a fight with Pakistan, bogged down in Afghanistan – didn't get far on the objectives of the geopolitical division of Western Asia. However, burned in Libya, but this is little consolation.
Will it be possible seriously to choke Iran oil embargo under the pretext of combating the spread of nuclear weapons? Probably hard to say. Do not forget that the main trade partners of Iran's oil exports – Japan, China and Turkey are very different reacted to the coercion of the United States to cease cooperation with Iran.
Japan, which accounts for exports of as much as 14% of Iranian oil, reluctantly agreed. But in view of the apparent disadvantages of the sanctions Japan has asked the United States to impose an embargo gradually and with great delay. While China and Turkey daring do "sent away" the United States with their sanctions. And it must be said, almost negated all the efforts of the United States – because at least 30-40 percent of oil exports to Iran will not be reduced. And the EU is in no hurry to increase pressure on Iran and strongly emphasizes only economic in nature, calling on Iran to sit down at the negotiating table.
What remains of the United States in order to "call the bluff" and has to force other countries, especially its allies, to stop cooperating with Iran?
Just a provocation. A monstrous provocation. Because by itself the oil embargo of the goal of isolating Iran may not be achieved.
2. Of the history
Recall that this is not the first time that economic sanctions are applied for the production of a powerful country in a hopeless situation. Roughly the same thing happened with the Japanese Empire in the beginning of the Second World war deprived Britain, the US and the Netherlands oil and steel, she was forced to try to capture them by force. It was only into the hands of American financial circles that pearl Harbor was allowed with a large wash to draw the United States into the war and to make huge profits. And notice how beautifully and delicately it turned out: despite the fact that disaster in Hawaii could be prevented, the benefit and exploration, and radar warned of a Japanese percussion group, the loss was much more profitable due to greater resonance. So the solution was chosen to portray himself as an innocent victim.
Which variant will be selected provocations against Iran? It is unlikely that Ahmadinejad will be resolved (although who knows, more on that below) and really have to sink tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. But... but what prevents sink a few ships without his help? And then attribute it to attack Iranian submarines or missile boats. Fortunately, the "Tonkin incident" and "Lusitania" of the US to arrange can.
Further, very close to Iran is a loyal ally of the USA and a constant irritant to Iran – Israel. Some "unidentified planes" can strike at Israeli airfields…
Finally, there is the good old way, well-skated on the example of a September 11 – scale attack. And preferably in the country of the European Union – to persuade NATO allies to more actively participate in the operation. Clumsily? And never found chemical weapons Saddam is not clumsy?
The mass of options. Some of them will choose will depend on how "sacred" should be a reason for aggression and a "viewer" it will be designed.
3. The magical world of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
In another reality where there is consciousness of the Iranian leader, it is difficult to call. Unlike most cynical of political leaders, Ahmadinejad is actually "turned on his head" on his mystical ideas. But they have rather strange properties.
To start with, Iran is a Shiite country. And the Shiites differ from the Sunnis that are waiting for the arrival of the Mahdi, the "Hidden Imam", who will defeat evil, that is incorrect. And so, it is necessary such to happen, Ahmadinejad firmly believed that this would happen from day to day. And evidence of this he learned from a very controversial source.
In early may 2011, was arrested a group of supporters of Ahmadinejad's accusation. In sorcery. What do Shias really believe that communication with the world of the Jinn – a criminal offense. Among those arrested were Abbas a, Gafari, accused of possession of "special skills in metaphysics and connections with unknown worlds." What has all this to Mahdi? And despite the fact that before the arrest in Iran came a resonant documentary-propaganda film "Coming coming", who categorically predicted the coming of the Mahdi from year to year and which took a crucial part Gafari.
The interesting thing is that the film focused attention on the fact that Ahmadinejad is none other than Shoaib bin Saleh – warning! – warlord-the forerunner of the Mahdi. The one who will lead the faithful into battle with the forces of darkness! And what is even more interesting, Mahmoud did not deny it, despite all perturbations of the Iranian clergy. You know what that means for a theocratic state?! For comparison, imagine that the commercials in the 1250-m French or Spanish king would declare himself to be Christ, a second time come on the earth. How would responded to his fellow kings and the Holy Inquisition?..
But all is not so simple and not due to the mystical fantasies of the Iranian President. Long ago, rumors that a de facto country is ruled Esfandiar Rahim Mashei, who was earlier Vice-the Prime Minister (this is not a hint of Surkov), and then was dismissed on the personal orders of Ayatollah Hamaney. Here is the duality of the political system of Iran – the power drawn from the President spiritual leader of the nation and can become an internal cause for the escalation of military conflict in Iran. In this situation, the large "hawks" are just Ahmadinejad and his team, which allows subsequently Mashei to push the Iranian clergy from arms control as insufficiently aggressive and "Patriotic".
So it is quite likely that the war concerned not only the US but also by certain circles within Iran.
4. Scenarios of a future war
One of the rather serious problems of future war: its terrestrial phase. If you look at the map to ensure that the United States is not particularly convenient opportunities for the concentration of ground forces for the invasion. Look at neighboring Iran country.
Pakistan? Disappears after the recent scandals. While this is a nuclear country. There is still a need to ensure that it completely not to anger any inaccurate rocket attacks.
Iraq? Removed almost all the troops. The return will be perceived as a major political defeat and the renewal of the unpopular war. In extreme cases, you can agree to this, but this is hardly an optimal solution, given the fact that the Americans failed to take control of the whole country.
Kuwait? You can get there through Saudi Arabia, bypassing the risky Strait of Hormuz. There already is a large US military bases, including camp Arijan, where he applied both times strikes in Iraq. In principle, it is possible, but too bad the direction of the shot – right through the mountains to Tehran far.
Turkey? Really funny! To Turkey, refused to support the oil embargo, became involved in the operation shoulder to shoulder with Israel against the background of all the recent scandals? Very unlikely!
Afghanistan? Yes, there are certain ground forces. But now the United States wrestle with how to supply them, without Pakistani transit. So these forces can be only auxiliary.
Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkmenistan, of course, we do not consider.
Of the most likely directions of the main attack is still just Iraq – it's so close to a densely populated part of Iran and also can cooperate with Israel. In addition, the Iraqi border is located the main oil fields and communications.
Most likely, a war the US will be in your "air-rocket" style, fortunately they have airfields of Israel, and it is possible to connect force of the 6th fleet based in the Mediterranean sea.
Are they able to counter them with effective air defense and air force?
Frankly, no. The Iranian air defense – the Russian system "Angara" (3 launchers) and "tor-M1" (29 launchers, about 1200 missiles), and American "hawk" and the old Soviet s-75 obsolete by the end of the Vietnam war. More precisely, even they, and their Chinese clones. There's another SAM "Cube". All this, though good for its time, but already obsolete weapons. His efficiency speaks volumes that this technique was in service in the Iraqi army in both wars with the United States, and Serbia, and Libya... and anything those countries have not helped. The exception is the set of "Thor", but it is purely tactical, and a further 12 kilometers of the target track can not. In fact, the complete air defense Iran does not. "Angara" will beat the first massive RAID of cruise missiles. And the s-300 Russia they are not in a hurry to sell. More specifically, launchers sold and missiles there. This is the way that, independent of whether Putin's policy on the background of the proud "Munich speech".
BBC – not better. Most of them are American veterans of the f-4 and f-5, which is already half a century. Planes are good, but for a showdown at the regional level and not for confrontation with the aircraft, "the day after tomorrow" generation. Still have our MiG-29, but most of them made in the 80-ies, then there is the big question about modern electronic "stuffing" and the skills of the pilots. 20 years ago 35 Iraqi MiG-29 was not able to shoot down any us aircraft, and since then, the U.S. technology has leaped forward.
Proud to be in case of mobilization, can be put under the gun more than 10 million reservists – from the field of broken myths about the "invincibility" of Iraq and Libya. Helped reservists Saddam? Of course, if among the senior military leadership of Iran will be less sales of hides, which passed in his time, Iraq and the Americans, the war can be quite protracted. And may not be... If the phase of the air operation, no transition to the ground, will last long enough and people will Mature strong dissatisfaction with Ahmadinejad. However, there is another option…
5. In anticipation of the explosion
You know in Iran that they will not be able seriously to resist Western aggression? Probably, Yes. Parades-parades, but three submarines, the Soviet air defense system and air force reservists and terrible war with the entire Western world did not win in any way.
It if to argue logically. But if you look from the magical world of Ahmadinejad, there is a good prospect, and indeed unsuccessfully to play Shuaiba bin Saleh. You need not wait for the approach of American naval and ground forces and to preemptive strike on Israel and Jordan via Iraq. Why Jordan? Because the role of Sofiani, the main opponent of bin Saleh, the film "Coming coming" was appointed king of Jordan, Abdullah. So powerful tank shot through Iraq may be, though extremely risky, but the only option to "die with music". About as did Japan in 1941, is actually starting a suicidal war.
Despite its apparent awesomeness, anything is possible. Wait until the US and its allies "wabomba" the infrastructure of the country – is meaningless. Because they wabomba ease, along with the benefit of spending a stale arsenals. You may lose some of its aircraft. You may lose one or two of the small ship. But not anymore. Iraq and couldn't do (formally for 2003-2010 was lost 20 aircraft, but most of them suffered for technical reasons and due to errors of pilots during the piloting). The question is not even the loss of the United States, and that these losses can not do anything to change the destiny of Iran.
The only way to realize their relatively strong land army, without waiting for its destruction from the air – preemptively dump it on Israel, to smash its armed forces at the cost of any losses and dictate the position of the United States. Other chances Iran has no in principle, for "Shuaibu bin Saleh" a question of honor to deal with the main stronghold of Satan – Israel.
To expect decisive action Iran is when will come into force on oil sanctions not only from USA but also EU. Then Iran, despite a trickle in China and Turkey, can simply begin the collapse of the economy. And the decision on pre-emptive strike is made, the more it will be to guide the country's only chance to avoid popular hunger riots.
6. Than it threatens the region and the world?
If Iran did not dare to its "blitzkrieg", it would be destroyed from the air, and the US will get control of its oil reserves. This, coupled with the economically subordinate and loyal to Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United States does in fact the sole owner of the world's energy. In this case no devaluation of the U.S. dollar is not terrible.
If Iran decides to pre-emptive strike on Israel, it is not just seriously complicate US objectives, and will once again revolutionize the fragile geopolitical situation in the middle East redivision of the territories, which was all the Arab-Israeli war. The middle East will become a long zone of instability, and poorly controlled by the United States.
In addition, we should not forget that Israel is a nuclear country. And, remember the story, during the Yom Kippur war, there is seriously expected to use nuclear weapons. There is no doubt that the Iranians occupy a large part of Israeli territory, will use it. Though not on their land, and Iran itself. That threatens a huge environmental and diplomatic complications with neighboring countries.
And if Iran already will have its nukes, albeit relatively small, then we have a chance to see the beginning of World war III with mutual use of nuclear weapons by Iran, Israel, and possibly later, the United States and Pakistan. And let the flames of war and radiation did not reach Russia, but this does not mean that she will not suffer because of economic turmoil the global oil industry. Just expect that oil prices will go up and Russia is a win – somewhat simplistically. It is possible that the shortage of fuel in the parched middle East of Russia in the eyes of the Western globalists are prepared for the role of the main energy donor under colonial rule.
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