Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Defence and security / / Articles
A new map of the Pentagon
Material posted: -Publication date: 27-10-2004

Not so long ago in the Internet appeared quite a lot of comments about the next geopolitical development of the American military experts. Thomas Barnett of the naval war College USA in his article "the Pentagon's New map" presented the main provisions of the new geopolitical concept of the U.S. military.

The basis of a new geopolitical concept is the approach, according to which the position of the US as leader of the new world order largely depends on how successfully will develop the processes of globalization in the modern world. Since the end of the Cold war, the U.S. administration was in constant search of a new theory of world governance and the necessary support for its military strategy. This tool was found in mid of 90-ies of XX century – globalization. Only with the spread of globalization all over the world, the US leading position to continue. According to experts of the Pentagon, the part of the modern world, which embraced the model of globalization proposed by the US, today could be controlled by non-military means and, above all, by means of information manipulation. The same part of the world's population that has not embraced the processes of globalization should be a force "colonized".

The key paradigm of the new strategy is the thesis of "Disunity is a danger" (Disconnectedness defines danger). According to the authors of the concept, the regime of Saddam Hussein was dangerous removed from the globalizing world, from its rules of conduct, norms and ties that bind countries together in a United, controlled by the United States, the mechanism. That is why the war with Iraq is not related to the disarmament of Iraq, or the continuation of the U.S. global war on terror. This war is, in their opinion, a major turning point, with which Washington begins to implement its new strategy of domination in the era of globalization.

Many say that implanted and cultivated U.S. politics of globalization in recent years has resulted in an extraordinary stratification of society: on the one hand – highly globalsurance Europe and Japan, and with another – the poor countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America. However, according to the authors of the new concept, the future of the modern world will be defined by those regions of the world where globalization has become an integral part of society. This part of the planet in geopoliticheskoi proposed concept bears the title "functioning core" (the Functioning Core). In the Kernel, according to the authors, consists of North America, most of South America, European Union, Russia (under Putin, but only in the event of a change of system possible slipping of Russia in the Gap), Japan and the emerging economies of Asia (especially China and India), Australia and New Zealand, South Africa. The total population of the Nucleus is about four billion.

The rest of the world not covered by the processes of globalization, in accordance with the proposed approach denoted as "not integrated gap" (the Non-Integrating Gap), then a Gap. The authors called this Gap "the ozone hole of globalization", through which the civilized world erupts in hatred and evil. First of all, in the Breach included the Islands of the Caribbean sea, virtually all of Africa, the Balkans, the Caucasus, Central Asia, middle East and South-West Asia, most of Southeast Asia. The total Gap population – about two billion. The majority of the population is Muslim. A characteristic feature of the population of this part of the world is its very young age and a low income per capita. One of the most radical products Gaps today is the al-Qaeda – the network of transnational terrorist network.

Experts of the Pentagon, speaking about the development of large-scale operations by the armed forces of the United States, emphasize that the main purpose for started global operations - reducing or eliminating Gaps that will allow to establish complete control of the United States over the entire territory of the planet as part of a major campaign of globalization.

In this regard, the real reason for the war with Iraq not because Saddam Hussein was a tyrant, and that his regime has supported terrorist networks. The real reason is that folding is not in favor of America's economic and political situation in the world forces the U.S. administration to deal with the entire Gap as a strategic space from which emanates a deadly threat to the very existence of America.

An important principle of the new geopolitical concepts is the presence of dividing line between Core and Gap. According to the authors of the concept, the Core and the Gap share the so-called "border States". These include: Mexico, Brazil, South Africa, Morocco, Algeria, Greece, Turkey, Pakistan, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines and Indonesia. This line is not constant, it continuously migrates primarily due to the presence of border States: of the countries formerly part of the kernel may as a result of a number of event to go in the Gap, while some States that previously fell in the Gap can take the effort out of it. However, such precedents are very few, the Cup of the country, escaping from the Gaps, can not long stay in the Core without assistance from the other States, forming, and sinking again into the abyss of the Gaps.

As noted by American military experts, the retrospective analysis of the place of use of military force by the U.S. army since the end of world war II shows that most of them were concentrated in the space Gaps. That is why, speaking about possible regions of application of the military forces of the United States, experts point out the following pattern: if a country fails in the process of globalization or shumoizolyatsiya from the processes of globalization, there is a high probability that the US at some point will decide on the conduct of her military operations. And back, if the country largely functions according to the established laws of globalization, the United States will use non-military measures to retain control over such States.

As a main principle, allowing to refer the country to the Breach, determined the following: the position of the country, guaranteeing a US military response is inversely proportional to its ability to the perception of globalization. In this regard, analysts believe that there is a serious substantiation that al-Qaeda was based first in Sudan and then in Afghanistan. These are two of the most backward countries in the world, the least involved in the processes of globalization.

On the basis of the main provisions of the new geopolitical concept, national security strategy of the USA should be based, according to experts, on three main theses: 1) increase the immune abilities of the system Kernel security to new threats; 2) developing the ability to "border States" to serve as the firewall (fire wall) the Kernel is able to protect him from the export of the Gaps terror, drugs, epidemics, etc.; 3) implementing a complex of measures, including the use of force, aimed at the comprehensive reduction of Gaps. The implementation of these theses cannot be held without full and continuous control over the status Gaps that can detect the emergence of any hostile currents that may escape beyond the barrier.

According to the authors of the concept, the best place to start the implementation of extended abstracts is today the middle East. The development of the region in the direction of its unity with the Core will be initiated by Israel. Here there is a potential swing States, like Qatar and Jordan, which seek to enter the Core. However, without hard external forces will change the situation in the region quite difficult. First of all, it is necessary to eliminate Hussein as the chief enemy in the region. Could make it USA only. According to the authors of the project, Iraq is the Yugoslavia of the middle East crossroads of civilizations. That's why regime change in Iraq required a long-term presence in the region by American troops.

Based on the provisions of the new geopolitical concepts, the experts conclude of the most dangerous regions of the world in which the use of U.S. military force in the near future, it's Haiti, Colombia, Brazil and Argentina, former Yugoslavia, Congo and Rwanda, Angola, South Africa, Israel and Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Somalia, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, North Korea, Indonesia.

Experts estimate that South Africa as a single country Core on the African continent. However, its geographical position on the "bubble" countries of the Gaps leads to the fact that South Africa today is the gateway for terrorist networks seeking access to the Kernel.

Regarding Saudi Arabia, the authors of the concept have expressed the view that "...the mentality of Royal mafia will eventually cause an internal storm of protest...".

In Pakistan expressed concern that the state can radically change their attitude to the USA with the departure of its current administration, becoming a fundamentalist Islamic state. Today, the government does not control much of its territory, which is free, there is al-Qaeda. The presence of nuclear weapons does Pakistan deadly threat that has already forced largely to revise the U.S. policy against him.

Causing, in the opinion of the authors of the concept, the position of North Korea could lead to the fact that this country will be the next country after Iraq Breach in respect of which force would be used by the us army.

Also among possible future goals of the American army are China, Russia and India. But the fate of these countries depends largely on the way they will evolve in the coming years and measures of their involvement in processes of globalization.

Tags: USA , security , threat


RELATED MATERIALS: Defence and security