After the arrival of the brigade Strelkova in Donetsk, the situation in the Donbass is undergoing a strategic change. In LNR now after the saturation of military orders militia vehicles and artillery (although it sorely lacking), the militia not only confidently give resistance to the junta, but in some areas even try to go on the offensive.
Unexpected breakthrough to the Donetsk and not only foiled the plans of liquidation in Slavyansk the main forces of the militia (to which prepared both in Kiev and in Donetsk), but also messed things up for those who were preparing to surrender Donetsk to the junta, which seriously did not plan to storm the city.
After the departure of strelkov from Slavyansk, the head flew in the leadership of punitive operation. While no clear motives resignations -- take the blame-for the fact that they have missed the breakthrough strelkov disrupted backstage talks with Akhmetov & Co for surrender of Donetsk, that is because released from Slavyansk coveted prey, because the propaganda of the junta has clearly been preparing to celebrate the success associated with the defeat of strelkov's brigade, and is now forced to show a few trophies like defective anti-tank guided missiles and BMD zaminirovanii. It is not difficult to see, the propaganda the junta has practically no serious trophies, all had either taken or destroyed - if not the death of the armored group covering a withdrawal, the actions of the junta for blocking breakthrough strelkov would look very very mediocre.
In Donetsk under increasing howling of the defeatists "we do Not want war," Strelkov busily builds defense, in which he in addition to his troops, and includes local militias. Judging by the fact that no obstacle local commanders do not mend him, they already reached some sort of arrangement or even a direct subordinate to Strelkov. Shooters had time to go to Lugansk and to talk with Bolotov and interaction, so in the next few days from there to Donetsk should increase the flow of weapons and other necessary things for the defense.
Abandoned on the territory of RDG strelkov active, hampering the movement of troops of the junta. The same militias occupy abandoned settlements in the region of Donetsk, local authorities did not bother to put under its control.
Reinforcing checkpoints and digging trenches, Strelkov Donetsk is preparing for a long defense, finishing strongly with the treacherous inaction that there was observed the last 2 months. The remaining captured Ukrainian part, tear Ukrainian symbols (it's a shame we in Sevastopol for 2 weeks almost all stripped, and in Donetsk for 3 months failed), voiced direct threats against potential troublemakers in the rear strip as well as creating the commandant's office. In General, there is an active work on strengthening the rear.
Khodakovsky has disappeared, "East" are now fighting in the Snow, who now commands - is unknown. The mayor of Lukyanchenko urgently shuttled to Kiev, and then from there, Poroshenko said he was ready for a truce. The reasons for this move is clear: the truce must to:
- To develop an action plan against Donetsk (it simply was not, as the junta was sure that after the capture of Slavyansk and the defeat of strelkov, the city will rent).
- To ensure the same as in June, the period of time for concentration of forces against Donetsk, without the risk of constant attacks from RDG Strelkova.
In fact, the truce for no reason - both sides are determined to destroy each other - and To the Shooters want to get to the Kiev junta wants to destroy the rebellion. The ground for negotiations just there, so a truce is an obvious tactical ploy and even if it again will be announced, shooting will go every day.
Despite the occupation of Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and Artemovsk, a serious movement in the direction of Debaltsevo, Gorlovka and Donetsk yet. Not because the leaders of the punitive operation even did not aim to capture the Donetsk military solution and now they are frantically trying to work out a military plan of action.
While on the occupied territories is a tough filtering - grab supported militia men trying to record in "Shtrafbat" (the last house will not sit out, it's understandable), and the quiet shot of the persons from the black list, is the same and constant commotion in the rear of their associated with the reconnaissance group of the militia operating on the principle of hit is gone, so part of the forces of the junta is forced to keep in the rear, to protect stretched communication and control of the city.
Now extended to the front shock fur.units and detachments of special forces, pulling equipment and artillery available even when communications will take up to 7-8 days. In case of serious trouble in the rear to 10-12 days. By the middle of the month, the junta will concentrate a sufficient force to undertake an offensive on Gorlovka and Donetsk suburbs. If some of the forces she sent to debaltseve and into the flank of the Lisichansk, even to the blockade of the Donetsk forces have no more. So the main problem for the junta will be the question - where to take the offensive on Debaltsevo, with the aim to cut DNR from LNR, Lisichansk, for the purpose of otseneny group Brainstorming or shove in the forehead to Donetsk.
Strelkov's main problem is the lack of people and weapons, at the moment, taking into account local militia he'll be able to put Donetsk and Gorlovka to 7-8 thousand militia with a few armored vehicles (up to 20-25 units) against the junta put up to 18-22 thousand soldiers (likely less) at 190-210 armored vehicles (tanks, BMP, BMD, BTR), 100-120 guns and mortars + aviapedia.. the Ratio is unfavorable, but still tolerant, because sitting in the defense it can be levelled using industrial development and knowledge of the area.
Surround Donetsk will be difficult, because the fighting near Saur-Grave, where militias are already actively using tanks and howitzers, show that if the alignment at the tactical level of the ratio in engineering, the weakness of the infantry of the junta is pretty obvious - hence the heavy losses of the punishers from the "Azov" and similar units.
The hysterics in Kyiv about the plight of grouping junta in the South of Donbass, there are reflection inconsistencies of the tasks of a new reality, where the forces of the junta will have to directly get involved in fights for the Donetsk agglomeration, and this task is much more difficult struggle for Slovyansk.
The main objectives of Strelkova at the moment are:
- Strengthening their power over local warlords with whom he will hold Donetsk agglomeration, as well as strong relationships with the groups holding the Northern front, the troops in LC. First of all it is necessary close interaction with the teams Brain, Bolotov, Kozitsyn and groups holding Snow, Krasnodon and the border with Russia (now there's a hole in the order of 60-80 km from Izvarino the junta to take and are unable). The process of transformation of the militia into the army must be accelerated.
- The establishment of close relations with Bolotov on transfers of weapons, equipment and volunteers. Need as getting new tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, and the creation of artillery fists, which can successfully repel even greatly superior forces of the enemy.
- Intensification of recruitment of volunteers from local and visiting, as well as learning and integrating new people into existing and newly formed units.
- The construction of defensive structures, mining roads and bridges, the establishment of defensive lines, firing positions.
- The sweep of the rear strip from the agents of the enemy and the criminal element, revitalization of the work of the military counterintelligence of SMERSH and.
- Blocking any attempts of collusion behind the backs of the militia in the interests of the junta and Akhmetov.
- Political prostitutes like Kurginyan and individuals working on both sides, it is necessary to eliminate from Donetsk in any way (from the officers of the Russian special forces "alpha" - "Kurginyan provocateur and a traitor. The shooters held a competent tactical operation").
- To force the political leadership of the DPR to be actively involved in the organization of logistics and information warfare, ending with the slackness and pink illusions and manuilovskoe, in order to finally begin creating real, not virtual, people's Republic of Donetsk.
- Report to the residents of Donetsk agglomeration of military age that sitting at Khatam does not remove them from the war, and only war will bring to their home. Propaganda plus the financial incentives, should help people understand that the longer they are at home, the more people will die (including their relatives) and to increase the number of DPR fighters in Donetsk before Strelkov necessary for a successful defence of 8-10 thousand people.
- The responsibility of conveying the conviction that war will be fought to the bitter end, no matter how hard it was. And report this conviction to Russia, so there is not tried on the quiet to merge Strelkova and DNR, even despite pressure from the West and the existing informal channels, official and international assistance, continued to operate.
In General, active hostilities in the region of Donetsk should wait about a week, when the junta will focus a major force for offensive operations.
In the current scenario, taking Donetsk is highly problematic, if not impossible. Strong leadership strelkov obviously will increase the chances of Donetsk on a successful defense that will likely cause irreparable junta to prolong the war in the Donbass, which is becoming more and more similarities to the Yugoslav scenario, which in this case is somehow going to lead DPR and LPR independence. Shooters this is one of those people who will actually be able to accomplish that with appropriate assistance and the appropriate level of the organization.
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