Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Defence and security / / Articles
About the military-strategic course of the new US administration
Material posted: Publication date: 14-11-2016

America in shock – predsjedavao a victory for Clinton by reputable media, public opinion polls and analysts are unable to predict the victory of Republican Donald trump. He is a very odious figure in politics are not known and therefore unpredictable. However, he demonstrated that he intends to build an independent line and to defend their point of view. A kind of American version of Vladimir Putin.

If you analyze his campaign statements, he is isolationist in the sense that residing in the White house, he will be engaged first of all internal problems of the USA, which are very serious. In this he goes, perhaps his entire life. In addition, his statements are very similar to the policies of Ronald Reagan. However, the foreign policy of this President is not notable for its peacefulness. In General, Republicans are directness and rigidity in foreign policy. But trump goes against the party and that he won the election. By and large, Americans vote for the proposal of trump, but not for Republicans.
With regard to foreign policy, Donald trump in his election campaign clearly stated its position: Baltika, Western Europe, NATO, Ukraine should solve their problems themselves, with Russia necessary to agree and annihilate the radical Islamism and restore order in the middle East and, importantly, to develop their oil reserves, and not to Rob other countries, to overthrow regimes and intervene in the politics of other States is unacceptable. The main threat to the United States, according to trump China's growing power, not only economic.

But keep in mind that the electors had not yet made its decisions and some voters are ready to break the law and vote against trump. Until 19 December, the United States are in limbo, which complicates the forecast of the US strategy in foreign policy.

US history shows that her military machine it is important to work in a real armed conflict, and not military exercises, as does Russia. USA can not live without war, because the locomotive of the us economy is the military-industrial complex. According to the promises of trump, he intends to increase the military budget and fully upgrade and change army in all areas: nuclear weapons groupings on the water, on land and in the air. How will he keep the desire of militant political elite and Republicans – is not clear.

But his statement that NATO countries should increase their military budgets and to increase their contribution to the combat capability of NATO and the United States are no longer going to sponsor them, pushed analysts to conclude that NATO is in the hands of the trump would become his business project. The United States will be forced to vzvintili costs of the countries-members of the Alliance their military spending, and as a result American military-industrial complex will receive a large and long term orders.

If you move away from statements of trump and try to outline the contours of the strategic military plans of the USA at the trump, given most circumstances, it is possible to outline three options of development of events at the trump.

The first option – trump – strong isolationist leader, who consolidates the American society and gradually pericardium American elite. In this situation, it is likely that he will be cooperative with Russia and try to enlist its support in resolving the conflicts in the middle East, localize and neutralize ISIS and let the Middle East countries to begin to recover. The main focus of his policy will be the Asia-Pacific region and containment of China. China is not only an economic giant, it still builds up its military muscle. Its specialists work in the middle East, for example in the forces of Bashar al-Assad. The Chinese are wise and cunning people, they quietly and silently, quietly implement their plans, and you don't know it, China already has a powerful and equal to you Army. The focus of trump will focus on the increased presence of US forces in the Pacific ocean, South China sea, will be aimed at working with countries in the region that are not satisfied with the activities of China. Will probably be rocking and a revival of border disputes and border conflicts with China.

The second option – trump will be under the Republican party, and it will define the foreign policy agenda. In this case, the continued strengthening of the U.S. presence in Europe will continue a course on strengthening of NATO, will continue to be military assistance to the Baltic States and Ukraine, will continue anti-assadovskaya agenda in Syria, intensified sanctions against Russia. Funding for VPK is likely to increase, the army will be rearmed. BUT for the consolidation of the American companies will be mainly used the strategy of "the United States – the guarantor of world stability and order and in the name of US security, your right we should uphold." It is not excluded strengthening the US military presence in the Asia-Pacific region.

The third option – trump did not elect the electors or shortly after taking office, not uiusys with the Republican establishment, he will be impeached. Then the USA will be very concerned with their domestic political problems and will win a world map in their political interests. Foreign policy agenda will not differ a certain sequence and logic, however, will have a specific and already sheeny vector. Democrats will work – middle East and Eastern Europe. Republicans will keep the Pro-Israeli vector, as in the presidential campaign of 2016 influential American Jews contributed money twice more than they poured in, Hillary, and the money should work. So will continue the oil war, in order to prevent to gain power and influence to Iran. Will continue, and possibly increase confrontation with Russia, because the Russian threat is the main bogeyman for the Americans and Europeans – so it was, is and will be. In addition, the Republicans will be considerable attention paid to China, which actively reaches out to Africa and Latin America, and the United States cannot allow the stranger to take his place in his underbelly. Through Africa and the middle East, the United States can rule Europe, and between Turkey and other NATO allies.

However, no matter how events developed after the elections in the United States, will trump power, or it will be sent into retirement ahead of time, be it the Republicans or the Democrats, one thing is important – the United States has reached the point of bifurcation, when it is time to focus on the prioritization, consolidation of their internal and external resources, and most importantly – focus on solving its internal problems. History shows that the internal problems of the United States are solved through global wars. However, Trap – not a politician he is a businessman, he tends to minimize risks, especially financial costs. Great America is it, perhaps, the main business project. In his first period, he probably will be busy building a new elite structure will be more or less restrained in foreign policy, especially in relation to the conduct of active hostilities. But if he goes for a second term, expect Cobra roll, which has regained its strength. Although, some experts believe that with the arrival of trump in the White house will begin a new era of a multipolar world, without painful global US hegemony, the era of partnership and mutual respect. However, it is hardly the most influential of the world, with most of the financial resources of the world in their hands agree with this policy. Definitely something to say today is rather difficult, the last thing you want illusions. Trump is not the one who looks. He is strong-willed and determined. And he can be quite unpredictable in their strategic military decisions. It is not exactly a peacemaker. If he wants to increase the military budget and to fully re-equip the Army, because in many areas they are inferior to Russia – this is no accident. To become equal in power of Russia, to prevent its military Alliance with China and other BRICS countries, to prevent its growing influence on all continents, is also likely to be in the foreign policy agenda trump. In business, never reveal their plans. You can pretend that go to a meeting and contact with the enemy that the differences you're willing to forget, but as soon as I manage to lull the vigilance of the enemy will be dealt a very strong and devastating blow. Today should be even more attentive to the foreign policy agenda of the United States than previously.

Ekaterina Krivelskaya

Tags: USA , geopolitics

RELATED MATERIALS: Defence and security