Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Defence and security / / Articles
The first lessons of war in Ukraine
Material posted: Publication date: 07-08-2014

That showed the fighting on the territory of former Ukraine, about the first results of bloody battles, the weapons used in an interview to the editor "Today.ru" Yury Kitten told the head of the Center for strategic assessments and forecasts of the military expert Sergey Grinyaev.

Yuri Kitten: What are the new trends in war of genera and species of troops appeared in the b/d in the Donbass?

Sergey Grinyaev: Fighting in the South-East of Ukraine largely confirmed our previous assessment on the transformation of forms and methods of warfare in armed conflict under modern conditions. Most effectively in the South-East are the special forces, consolidated in a sabotage and intelligence group, as well as separate calculations reinforced with heavy machine guns, mortars, tools, VET, etc.

Tactics – deep maneuver on the coverage and surrounded by the enemy from cutting the routes of supply. At the operational level, actively use the art of creating the "boilers" of the great Patriotic war – today it again proved very popular. Once again claimed control of the "command heights": the mountain Saur-Grave and Karachun this is most clearly shown. Highly sought after tactics in urban areas.

In the application of the above techniques, as well as in the presence of the enemy combat aircraft (albeit small), as well as the active cooperation of Kiev with Washington on the exchange of intelligence data (primarily satellite imagery intelligence), has made a relevant application in a large number as a transport and combat vehicles civil vehicles with high cross.

From weapons of the popular and most effective small arms and light automatic weapons, sniper weapons, infantry, antitank and antiaircraft means of defense.

A particularly effective system strengthen the infantry fire: hand grenade launchers and flamethrowers. A serious means of strengthening are heavy machine guns and mortars, often mounted on civilian vehicles to increase mobility.

The specifics of the conflict was the presence on the territory of the fighting in the town of Soledar bases of storage of arms of the First and Second world wars. This led to the use among the militia, such weapons as the SKS, PTSD, PD, revolvers, Mosin rifles and Maxim machine guns.

Overall, the militia is actively using all kinds of weapons that they managed to capture the APU during the fighting.

In turn, the APU use weapons of Soviet and early Russian production. From modern samples it is possible to note the use of modernized tanks "Oplot", a small number of upgraded armoured personnel carriers.

Interesting finding of special units of the armed forces of Ukraine – the widespread use of wireless cameras surveillance systems. Camera secretly installed in the immediate vicinity of the areas of concentration or combat operation of the militia on urban lighting pillars, on different accessories masts (mobile network, transmission network, radio communication, etc.) and allowed to obtain video information about the movements of militia forces, suitable to adjust the fire.

Ineffective (due to low training of operators) used unmanned aircraft, including Tu-143 "Flight".

In recent weeks in parts of Ukraine began to receive small arms of foreign production.

A characteristic feature of the conflict in Ukraine was that the most highly developed application of information weapons. Propaganda in the conflict has surpassed all known facts prior to this, conducting information and psychological operations. The level of organization of information-psychological warfare from the APU, the individual techniques and methods of conducting information operations clearly indicate a broad involvement of foreign advisers.

It should be noted widespread use by both sides of the rocket launchers that "anti-terrorist operation" seems, well, just out of the ordinary... Today we are talking not only about the use of "Grad" and "Smerch" and "Uragan", which in principle is comparable to the use of tactical nuclear weapons.

- Why the punishers Kiev junta so long unable to take the key components of the defense militia?

- Combat use of APU has shown their extremely low level of combat readiness. The supervision is somewhat reminded of the Russian army in December 1994 in the days of its entrance to Grozny. But then the Russian army was still fighting officers trained in Afghanistan and many hot spots in the vastness of the USSR collapse, is able to plan and implement a fairly complex operational scenario for the use of force.

The most efficient, as it often was in conflict on the territory of the former Soviet Union, was part of the airborne troops and special forces Gur General staff of the armed forces.

The Ukrainian army, despite ongoing involvement in conflicts in many parts of the world from Afghanistan and Iraq to Sierra Leone, has not learned to fight at the present level. Practically no experience protivoprotosanoe anti-sabotage and struggle. The small group of military specialists who have received combat experience in peacekeeping troops, they preferred to continue the contract, retired from the armed forces, foreign private military companies, or continue to be employed in a foreign country, where smoldered internal or regional conflicts.

Totally unacceptable was the level of combat training and material and technical equipment of the air forces of Ukraine. The fighting showed complete absence of high-precision means of destruction and/or inability to apply it.

The level of interaction between the armed forces and units of the armed forces and other armed militias (the national guard) is virtually absent, leading to inconsistent and often cases of the defeat of their own personnel as a result of "friendly fire".

All this makes it impossible to talk about the ability of the armed forces of Ukraine to conduct anti-terrorist operations, when operations are conducted in urban areas, where there is a high risk of injury in the civilian population. What and if are ready, the Ukrainian military is to fire on the land, including urban areas.

The involvement of foreign military advisers, was not seriously improve the situation for Kiev, while the staff of private military companies, representing a real force, often quite expensive, even for Kiev with his sponsors in Washington and Brussels. The mobilization has not solved the problem, and the level of training mobilized and failed in any real way to tighten up acceptable. The result was very high casualties, loss of morale of the personnel, the growth of social tension in a number of Ukrainian regions associated with unwillingness to participate in the continuation of hostilities.

- To your mind that time plays into the hands of the DNR and LNR? In the contrary, the danger of war on the borders with Russia?

- Of course the time plays in the militia. First of all, due to serious economic Trad Kiev to the war. Today the West is in no hurry to provide financial support to Kiev. Budget content coming from the most economically developed areas of the Southeast, is now almost entirely ceased. The sowing campaign was completed in Maidan stupor, and harvest will be left with a significant portion will be mobilized. Increasing level of protests against the continuation of war even in the West. Gas in the country in the autumn will not...

As for Russia, it is negative for our country is the continuing flow of refugees from the adjacent territory. Autumn is coming, and temporary camps do not work. You need to think about more serious housing for a significant number of refugees that will place an additional burden on the regional and Federal budgets.

In addition, the destroyed economy of the South-East in the coming months will lead to even greater influx of migrants, even in the event of the cessation of hostilities.

- How likely is the outbreak of war in Crimea?

- I believe that the level of such risk is quite low. Note, however, that if Kiev would face the threat of defeat in unleashed the punitive operation in the Southeast, it will be in a state ready for an armed provocation against the Crimea with the aim to involve in the conflict and Russia in response to its "aggression" - to ask NATO troops for protection.

- Kiev actively uses mercenaries. Can this process be expanded during the fighting?

- Yes, indeed, Kiev was disappointed in his own army and ready to replace it with foreign mercenaries. The problem is that experienced mercenaries are expensive. Kiev can only hope that he his a fascist ideology will be able to attract all the right-wing militants from Europe and other regions of the planet.

However, I think that talking about a possible serious increase in the number of professional mercenaries from the PMC in addition to those already fighting in the South-East, is hardly possible.

Whether does Russia, selecting tactics of open interference in the conflict? Or important to secure the borders and protect the people of the Russian world in Ukraine and Novorossiya?

- I believe that the issue lies not in the military-strategic sphere. The issue is more financial and economic space. In recent years, the Russian business (or bureaucracy) is too "fused" with the West: property, education for children, medicine, "Courchevel" and "shopping", the actual business – all this is far outside the Russian Federation. And today, when Western sanctions have restricted access to capital and to property in the West, when disturbed developed in the 20 years after the collapse of the USSR "lifestyle", they don't want to put up and strive at all costs to preserve the "status quo" beginning of the XXI century, lobbying loyal West scenarios of development of events...

But to return to the past is gone, the Rubicon has been crossed with the annexation of Crimea. Unfortunately, it understand not all. Hope for understanding what is happening will not require too much time and even more blood.

- Your forecast on the progress and result of the fighting on the border with Russia in Donetsk and Lugansk for the near term and long term?

- To evaluate the development of military-political situation in the theater of operations without timely and accurate information is extremely difficult, and just useless. I would say only this. Militias today on the number at times lose the punitive forces. They lose the weapons. Yes, the morale of the militia above that of servicemen. But the militia has problems with discipline, although mutual exchange of fire, as is lately often the case between divisions of VSU and national guard, are not an issue.

Today a lot will depend on whether or not to radically change the moral-psychological situation in the armed forces of Ukraine. It is in the armed forces, as the fanatics of the national guard do not have the training. The first success – the transition of the Russian border in Gukovo more than four hundred military can be evaluated positively in this regard.

If the confrontation will continue in the autumn, the deterioration of weather conditions will have a negative impact on both sides of the conflict, although the militia would be in more favorable conditions, since it is on their land and will always be able to warm up and find food, which cannot be said of the personnel of the punitive parts.

- As the conflict in Donbas with the threat of war in Transnistria and the resumption of hostilities in Karabakh? How can Russia respond to these points in military and political terms?

- Yes, the events in Ukraine (in Crimea and South-East) is definitely initiated the growing intensity of conflicts throughout the former USSR. And the Transnistrian and Karabakh conflicts today are once again beginning to smolder. It is clear that it could not pass without the active participation of Washington in an effort to provide "support" to Kiev and to divert the attention of Moscow from the Ukraine to other regions and lead to dispersion of resources, the US has been to escalate tensions in the conflict series.

I think that in such situation Russia has to react harshly, efficiently and quickly.

We are already blamed for everything, we already are "aggressors". Without any justification and with absolutely no proof! Today there is no international organization that would support Russia! In these circumstances there is the possibility of simultaneous once and for all to solve long-standing conflicts in the frontier space.

I believe that sharp and harsh statements of Russia in Transnistria and Karabakh as well as a hard ultimatum to Kiev, would promptly normalize the situation.

Today world practice (in particular, by Israel and Turkey against Syria, and especially in the United States against many Nations around the world) clearly interprets a potential threat (in particular, the shelling of the territory by neighbouring States) as a real threat to military security and neutralized by force. I believe that this development will be the most adequate to the current situation.

***

In conclusion, I would like to say the following. In the last decade, we too often have to fight with the closest peoples. In 2008 the us pushed their heads with the Orthodox Georgians. In 2014 we faced a war with Ukrainians. Regardless of the circumstances, it is extremely negative a number of historical events. We need to seize in hand-to-hand with Belarusians and Serbs, then the idea of the Orthodox world is the end.

Unfortunately, this is not accidental – the result of 20 years of destructive Russophobic policies of the West and, admittedly, quite successful.

I assume that it is understood by members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, especially the personnel of the airborne troops and special forces, have in common with Russian colleagues, the school, common traditions, and often General teachers. It is they, not "the national guard" and pravosek. They are partly still preserved the spirit of the Soviet Army – often stubbornly, resisting for days in a hopeless situation, even without provisions and ammunition. And it should be clearly understood. Yes, many drugged by propaganda, many are intimidated by the fate of his family, but they are Slavs. I really hope that another day, when we are together, shoulder to shoulder we will defeat a common enemy, the enemy concealed, sophisticated, cunning and dangerous, which is aiming at the very heart of our fraternal peoples.

Thank you for the interview.

 

Source: http://www.segodnia.ru/content/144617


RELATED MATERIALS: Defence and security
Возрастное ограничение