Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Defence and security / / Articles
Sergey Grinyaev: Frozen in some regions, conflicts risk to move into the hot phase
Material posted: -Publication date: 23-05-2014

General Director of ANO "Center for strategic assessments and forecasts" doctor of technical Sciences Sergei Grinyaev said in an interview Pravda.Ruwhere in the post-Soviet space and the world can repeat the Ukrainian scenario.

- Events in Ukraine show that it was not in the fight against corruption, and creating a "zone of chaos" or areas of instability around Russia. Otherwise, to power in Ukraine came the same fused with the officials and oligarchs. Do you agree with this approach?

- Yes. Evaluation of our Center, suggest that the events in Ukraine are the consequence of geopolitical processes that are now taking place in the world. The initiator of these processes became the global economic crisis, the acute phase of which had been in 2007-2008, and the main victim was the European Union.

Many countries in Europe were on the verge of bankruptcy in that period, but thanks to the efforts primarily of the leadership of Germany, partly France, managed to avoid collapse. In 2012-2013 we saw the relative economic growth in Germany, and as a result, changes in the economic situation in the EU as a whole.

However, the events leading up to the improving economy suggests that the worsening of the situation in Europe were the United States, which tried to preserve the dominant position of the dollar as the main reserve currency, and not allow a competing currency, the Euro, to expand its presence in the global economy.

When the German economy began to move away from the effects of stress required was a new chaos, a new destructive effect, which would not have enabled Germany to recover. And, actually, by such action are the events in Ukraine, whose main job is to break ties between Russia and Europe, primarily on natural gas supplies.

Gas is the blood of the European economy, and the United States in recent years has taken steps to translate Europe for liquefied natural gas. It is known that the United States through the use of shale gas has increased seriously enough supply of natural gas, including to Europe.

A logical step was to destabilize the situation in Ukraine, on the territory of which runs more than 60 per cent of the pipelines that fuel the economy of Europe. It is clear that in current circumstances neither Nord stream nor South stream construction cannot fully ensure delivery and transit status of Ukraine is saved. This was made by the Ukrainian party.

Again, the roots of Ukrainian events lie not in the fight against corruption and nothing else, and this is another in the big game, where at stake is the dominance of the USA who are struggling with their "allies" in Europe for leadership in XX1 century.

- Can be expected to continue in Moldova, where on 27 June will take place the signing of the Association agreement with the EU?

- Ukrainian events have moved a certain layer in global international relations, connected with the possibility of self-determination of peoples, their participation in a particular public project.

Similar events we can observe in Scotland, the UK, Spain and some other European countries. I think that Moldova is no exception. The question of Transnistria will emerge at the time of signing of a Charter of partnership with the EU.

- What other countries expect events like Maidan?

- I fully support the statement of the Minister of foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov about the fact that these so-called "color revolutions" that we are seeing, is an extremely dangerous phenomenon. They rocked the international situation in the world.

In many regions of the world 10th anniversary of the conflict did not find a legal solution, and ended up in a frozen state. Now they are at risk from this frozen state to move to the "hot" phase.

- How do you evaluate the situation in Armenia, Belarus? These countries, like, not affected by Russophobic sentiment? Are there any potential Maidan?

- In the current unstable situation, which has engulfed virtually the entire world most at risk from the implementation of certain threats to small States with any of the reserves of natural resources.

Fortunately for Belarus and Armenia, they, as small countries, however, do not have sufficiently serious mineral reserves, which is a natural protection for these States.

The second obvious advantage that Belarus and Armenia have shown a desire and commitment to join the Customs Union and in future to participate in the creation of the Eurasian economic Union together with Russia and Kazakhstan. In the current environment it is a definite factor for more stability and security for these States.


RELATED MATERIALS: Defence and security
Возрастное ограничение