Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Defence and security / / Articles
Modern geopolitics and security of the fuel and energy complex
Material posted: Publication date: 16-02-2020

In Gubkin Russian state University of oil and gas. I. M. Gubkin hosted a meeting of students of the faculty of Integrated security TEK with the Professor of the Moscow University of the MIA of Russia, Chairman of the scientific Advisory Board of the CIS Antiterrorist center, doctor of legal Sciences, Marianne A. Kochubey.

Well-deserved attention future professionals in the field of information security have heard the bright and informative report on why the fuel and energy complex is so interesting to terrorists, on the main causes of the world's armed conflicts, the experience of Russia in information confrontation of the terrorists ' ideology.

"There is no single concept of terrorism in the world legal system. In the nearest 20-30 years the state will not be able to negotiate and reach consensus on what terrorism is. Within each country produced their own concept and understanding of terrorism. From a military point of view a terrorist activity – is a form of warfare. In particular, terrorism is one of the tools that threaten the strategic complex, fuel and energy complex", - said Marianna Kochubey.

We are talking about a permanent struggle for resources.

In the middle ages resources were land territory. War of the crusaders in the middle East and all medieval war — a war for territory.

Another resource for which the war is waged, resources and energy.

According to the expert, today the engine of the economy are energy resources. The most significant activity, both military and political, is set at the energy pole.

In 2010, a report was issued, which was surveyed more than two thousand experts in the different fields of knowledge, representing the various regions. Their General opinion is that regional conflicts will continue. And the threat of a General world conflict is very high.

Among the geolocation was named as Asia and Africa. But if in Africa, according to expert opinion, in the medium term will be dominated by regional conflicts, in Asia there are great risks of conflict on a world scale.

Today the world is in the "turbulence" of regional and world conflicts. Perhaps only at the cost of local conflicts on the African continent and in South-East Asia will be able to avoid world conflict.

Armed conflicts are directly linked to the location of oil and gas deposits, as well as some other nutrients. This refers, first of all, the color revolutions that suddenly flared in the South American continent. And if some state holds 70% of the minerals or metals that are used to create any electronics, it is obvious that there are entities that want to "lay hands" on these treasures and put in rigid dependence on the state.

That's what caused most conflicts, and not religious or ethno-national enmity. Ethno-national conflict is always the shell of the conflict economic.

There are many international terrorist organizations Islamic persuasion. In their documents they mention the notorious Islamic Caliphate - an alternative to modern States project, claiming the possession of a vast territory with huge energy resources. In a real situation this is impossible, because the emergence of new players requires the displacement of old with their long strategies. However, making claims to these areas remains dangerous destabilizing factor.

Threats for regions adjacent to our country, is one of the main military-political problems.

With the support of the air force of the Russian Federation in Syria has been destroyed the core of the terrorists. However, the pieces scattered in different countries. Any such international terrorist organizations as the Khorasan province, Vilayat Sinai. They are very interested in our big Central Asia, that is, States that are our allies. And it is clear that the major nuclear-weapon States, bear a large responsibility for security around its territory over the whole of the boundary line. It is a historical responsibility of the Imperial state. To ensure security in the region we will work together with the people's Republic of China.

As it turned out, with the support of assorted intelligence agencies shards military core of ISIS was successfully transported to Uzbekistan and Northern Afghanistan. From there, they create pressure on the border of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, which possesses enormous reserves of gas, enters the Caspian sea. The Russian Federation borders with Turkmenistan, which is our closest partner. But who wants and could suddenly enter the territory of these sovereign States. And we are definitely worried.

It is not only about propaganda of the Islamic state, but also on the recruitment of their supporters. When I went to recruitment in universities of the Russian Federation and Central Asian States, it was discovered that the target audience of recruiters - medical students, medical schools, students of military schools, and students enrolled in specialized programs: oil and gas extraction, utilities oil & gas facilities.

Due to the success of domestic intelligence, all these attempts were thwarted.

In particular, attempts to find the specialists of the oil and gas, etc. to enable illegal extraction of Libyan and Syrian oil.

Was also foiled attempts to recruit specialists of farmers in the Russian agricultural universities, ISIL took control over large areas of the Middle East up to 80% of wheat production.

"Law enforcement bodies of Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan has developed a unified strategy to counter the infiltration of armed groups terrorist organizations. However, there are so-called "dormant" cells, conspiratorial group of people who are waiting command the wings, when they will act independently," - said Marianna Kochubey.

It is obvious that the main task of terrorists sleeper cells in the territories of oil and gas production – production of bombings and acts of sabotage on the objects of the mining complex. Our special services are paying increased attention to these objects.

The activities of international terrorist organizations aimed at creating discomfort our Eastern neighbor China. It is in the region Xinjiang in the Northwest of China is a serious reserves of minerals and oil. Therefore, there are a variety of joint activities of secret services, border security is strengthened.

We are talking about tough economic competition. And such regions will "shake" all the ideological and economic positions.

In the military sphere global strategies have been major changes.

Colonel of the us army has published in an American military journal a new theory of war. Changed the priority targets. Earlier it was the army, armed forces, population. Now the priority of defeat is a leadership, life support system, the infrastructure, and only then - the population and the armed forces. If in any metropolis to bring down system of sewage and water, life in the city stops.

"Particularly noteworthy sabotage of energy infrastructure and energy systems. If, for example, to undermine the platform on the continental shelf in the Gulf of Guinea, the price of oil will inevitably rise. And he does this undermine? Of mangrove forests are local residents. They dressed as local natives in palm leaves. But for some reason moved on expensive boats and modern navigation, modern means of communication there are so many useful technological stuff. They undermine the platform, go back into the mangroves. This established the terrorism act and not the actions of freedom fighters of Gulf of Guinea States. This is a feature of modern armed conflicts. Will be amazed energy infrastructure, will continue attempts to establish control over these objects and, of course, the implementation of the products, which are produced at these sites.

Another example is the civil war of the tribes in South Sudan. The name "rebels" - the "Lord's resistance Army". The shell can be any, and the battle for oil fields. Financial invested in Sudan, Chinese companies in exploration, extraction and transportation. And unleashed a war that is regarded as a terrorist - it is also a wrapper for control over the oil fields of Sudan.

Another example. The Tuareg rebellion in Mali. French, Italian, British companies say that they are fighting for freedom. In fact - for oil and gas deposits, for deposits of gold and uranium.

"I have not seen serious armed conflict in Africa - said Marianna Kochubey, who would be the ideological or cultural background. It's always a war for resources, organized in two phases: the civil war and the war of terrorism. To extinguish these fires is difficult.

A similar example. A large oil field in Qatar and Iran was the catalyst and one of the reasons for what happened in Syria. It is an attempt to preostanovlena control. Qatar and Iran have agreed and divided the field. Qatar decided that it was necessary to push through a branch pipeline through Iraq to Syria and then to Europe to feed its energy resource. Syria did not agree to change the political structure, the economy, in order to was laid the oil pipeline. Syria did not go on about the conspirators and what happened is what happened. This is the question that absolutely barbaric, predatory ways solved the problem of economic competition, especially in the energy sector.

Now we hear on TV that there are Kurds that they are oppressed and they have no site. You have to organize Kurdistan. According to the plan of the American military establishment has to be divided the territory in this area and created the state of Free Kurdistan with access to the Black sea. It was shown and described in the official periodical of the American journal ten years ago, and this story is all shocked.

Yemen is now a civil war, but according to American military strategists, from Saudi Arabia, need to squeeze another piece of territory. What in this area? Of course, oil and gas. And we all remember from the course General Geology: where is the gold there and uranium, and Vice versa, is natural specifics. Afghanistan needs to be taken away a piece of territory, as well as Iran and Pakistan and established the "free" state. In order to address issues of global economic competition will rock the state. Partition Iraq, sitski Iraq and Shiite Iraq. Kuwait receives absolutely any is not proportional to the vast territory, Saudi Arabia draft cut on the cards on all sides. Same thing with Jordan.

All of the above about what we are born of modern war.

Where all fields and gas fields in Syria? Exactly where were the most active hostilities. Trump is quite the straight man, straight and officially declares: "We in Syria are interested in oil. And we will put your troops there to guard the oil wells". Their military presence to control foreign oil already looks quite like an international break. And to it nobody is surprised.

Consider oil and gas corridors, which are already operating or planned for construction. We are most interested in the Caspian region. And it is necessary in the future to solve the security issues of the Russian energy corridors, oil and gas related to the Caspian region. Old energy corridors, still Soviet, updated and not updated, quite a lot, but it has become clear that China is the economic power No. 1 and not approaching, and now is the first economic power, the need for energy resources is huge, a number of States is working on exporting energy to China. Including this and the Islamic Republic of Iran. It would be also Turkmen gas to include in shipments to China, but how to make deliveries to China technologically? And then the question arose about the need to "ring". And then there was such a thing as military tactics energy in the Caspian region.

Today, energy is either the cause of war or tool for solving military and economic problems. If we denote the map seaports, oil and gas deposits, the region, these will be the same, they are close. This is a responsible position of any state -- if you have reserves of oil and gas, there can be no doubt, if you will not stand assigned to this area of the military base, sure someone will come and say, "It's mine!", here in Syria happened. The Americans say: "We will not leave, we will protect your oil fields."

"And in the Caspian sea began to occur even more interesting things, said the expert. - In 1991, the border on the Caspian region was very simple, the border with Iran and the border on the sea (on the shelf), and belonged to the Soviet Union. After 1991, each state that lies on the Caspian sea said rightly that we have a right to your segment of this sea. Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan came out for the right to provide them with their segment in the Caspian sea. The question of how to divide the water surface and the shelf of the Caspian sea was discussed since 1991. If it is a lake, the division will be by the same rules, if it is a sea, then according to different rules. Going to different consultations, the scientific community, the policy could not take a decision that is agreed between Azerbaijan, Russia and Kazakhstan, it was already good, but with the rest as it will. Iran's position is quite understandable, yet they shared the Caspian sea with the Soviet Union, they owned most of the area. If you divide now, with all sovereign States, the Iranian site is markedly narrowed. And that's a subject for bargaining, but no one will not enter the army. And was made one very important decision that all questions of the status of the Caspian sea, with all the shelves with all platforms and oil will solve the Caspian States themselves, without the involvement of other players. The Americans really wanted to get into Caspian consortium and said that we are also members and we have national interests. They have interests everywhere where there is oil and gas field. America wanted to participate either in the division or in preparation of documents or physical presence. It was a serious political step, we worked it, that the Caspian sea is shared by those who go to the Caspian".

As for the physical presence of the Americans there is a special technology of placing naval bases in an enclosed sea. Under the pretext of training of guards, they go into a country and the issue resolved. Example – the American naval base in Kazakhstan.

In 2018, an agreement was signed about the status of the Caspian sea. Signers - the first person in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Iran, Russia and Turkmenistan. This Convention involves the setting of boundaries on the water and on the shelves. These States pledged to provide to other States to its territory for military bases. The parties will be able to lay pipelines under the Caspian sea. As a result, in the hands of the owners of energy stocks is the security of the whole region.

"The Chinese do not play chess, they play Go. In fact, this game is a war strategy. If the military does not play Go – he has no strategic thinking. "North-South" project of the international transport corridor between the Baltic States and India through Iran — this is a typical game of Go. Is – cutting areas and establish control over space. The game of Go is a completely different method and style of thinking. If we were trying to establish control over the Straits, it would be a chess game. And so it is fundamentally different solution to the transport, territorial and economic problems", - said the expert.

Fierce opposition has had and Nord stream-2. The government of Denmark in collaboration with "Greenpeace" at the last second said that she is afraid that this project will interfere with the ecology of marine worms, which live along the Danish coast, and blocked the project. This is a Prime example of economic blackmail, since it is known that Russian companies that come out on any shelf are the most environmentally friendly.

Terrorist attacks on energy facilities may be implemented by various schemes. Can be as in the Gulf of Guinea. But we don't have in our territory mangrove forests. And all the savages in the well-equipped and ride vehicles from the bushes do not come out. This is a different story. We have objects can be subjected to cyber attack, technological terrorism.

Therefore, security in the oil and gas industry is primarily technology. But there is the human factor. He too could work and this thing is no less vulnerable than others.

"Cyber attacks have already begun. We remember how was stopped Iranian offshore platforms for oil – said Marianna Kochubey. They were stopped by computer virus. Who brought this virus on a flash drive? One thing is clear: the virus brought people."

"There are several scenarios of acts of unlawful interference, the expert added. But I want to draw your attention to the scenario in which we are engaged on a duty of our service activities. This is a legal intrusion with illegal purposes. For example, employment, participation in the trust to a person who works at some oil-producing facility, with the aim of preparing a terrorist act. There is such a thing as a diversion. Our nuclear power plants have happened this incident: there was a murder of the guard, part of the nuclear power plant was blown up. Then the question arose among specialists, is a sabotage or terrorist act? It was a diversion. Diversion involves the disabling of critical infrastructure, possibly military facilities. A terrorist act, after all, presupposes publicity. Sabotage can be committed in remote areas".

Thus, the prevention of sabotage is a very important job for professionals, ensuring safety. Working with people is no easier, and possibly much more difficult than working with iron. Filtering people understanding their motivations and purposes, a permanent monitoring of the emotional state of staff is the most important aspects of this work.

"It's clear understanding, - concluded by Marianna Kochubey, - what security issues have serious specificity. They are solved daily by laying bricks in a solid wall. It's an endless chain of different interconnected actions, subordinate unified strategy. Home can be used not only in the special forces or in the army. Home you can, for example, at power stations. Because also the security of our country. Today the military-economic component is definitely present in any national project."

Marina Korneeva


RELATED MATERIALS: Defence and security
Возрастное ограничение