People svengalie Yanukovych a year before its guaranteed care, not waiting until he has time to build up Russian money zhirok on the Ukrainian economy, and at the same time to agree on reducing gas prices, were clearly inadequate. As noted by one of them, they were unable to look into the future. Moreover, they are not very well understood what was happening before their eyes.
But if we are extremely skeptical about the intellectual potential of the "February revolutionaries", what can we say about the intellectual level of man, which in may agreed to elect the President of Ukraine? Then to the naked eye it was evident that the economy of Ukraine is no longer that the Central government does not control not only the Donetsk and Lugansk, but also other areas, and the capital controls to conditionally until the neo-Nazi militants decided to walk to the government district. And then it was clear that, finally, the punitive operation in Novorossiya falls, and the West is not going to help anything, except kind words.
I think Peter Alexeyevich really wanted to get in the workbook the record: "the President of Ukraine". And one could sympathize with him, as the dream came true in that moment, when Ukraine has effectively ceased to exist, and its last legitimate head of Yanukovych, holed up in the Russian territory, hated and despised by former friends and allies more than enemies. But the man who did not understand that in such circumstances to hold power could only a political and military genius of the level of Bonaparte (and Poroshenko not only Bonaparte, not even Barras), does not deserve sympathy.
What to do when there is nothing
Yanukovych hate for what he had the opportunity to prevent the massacre, but, probably due to natural stupidity and greed, both its own and the environment, failed to solve this rather simple task. How much more deserving of hate Poroshenko, who decided to solve a much more difficult task of rebuilding broken without no preparation, no talent, no team, and not found anything the best, than to bring the already started but not yet past the point of no return massacre to a whole new level possible in the conditions of Ukraine.
The man who decided instead of finding a compromise "all kill" should at least be able to implement this plan.
At the time of the nominal power Poroshenko was the weakest figure in Ukrainian politics. He didn't have a private army not only Kolomoiskiy level, but even level Akhmetov. His native Vinnytsia region, he oversaw weaker than Taruta of Donetsk. The armed forces and the security forces were not subordinate to the Supreme commander, and American military advisers. He doesn't have the charisma of Tymoshenko and even so the inferior party apparatus that was Klitschko or Yatsenyuk. Even the IMF loans were given not formally under Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk. In General, Peter I did not have any real levers for the implementation of presidential powers.
He was deprived of space to maneuver, as an alternative political wing (which, by the way, in his time, has repeatedly supported Yushchenko during clashes with colleagues) in the face of the Communist party of Ukraine and Party of regions was effectively destroyed.
And in the race for the most radical position Poroshenko anybody from potential competitors could not "periodically" (not only Yarosh or tyahnibok, but even a pathetic Lyashko). Meanwhile, the government does not keep pace with the radicalization of society in the time of revolutionary upheaval (and in Ukraine is in fact the Nazi revolution) is doomed to rapid collapse.
In fact, Poroshenko was zitsa-the Chairman who must accept responsibility for all the horrors of civil war, and can go not only from the political arena, but also from life.
On the advice of advisers
Certainly at the time, when he was hit by a passenger "Boeing" (a stubborn opposition of the Ukrainian authorities investigate suggestive of their involvement in its organization), USA already knew that Ukraine they do not hold. This time it was obvious even to untrained observers. Moreover, this should have understood the power of the country with the world's largest diplomatic corps and intelligence apparatus.
In fact, almost all the actions of the American side in Ukraine since July, aims to pull the tail out of Ukraine at minimal costs, trying not to pinch him, but made no bonuses in this is already lost the party.
It is in Russia "pique vests" could argue, "Putin merged" or not leaked, "all is lost" or not yet all, Russia needs only Crimea or the Donetsk and Lugansk also get worth. Contrary to popular with the light hand of the humorist Zadornov opinion, in the US are not all idiots. And to assess the strategic interests of the opponents they can efficiently.
All American actions during the Ukrainian crisis show that the US understood and still understand that Russia needs Ukraine as a whole (perhaps without the Western regions, but to the Zbruch is definitely needed). And the US built their game on the fact that Russia will have to go to Ukraine. The other possibility to return the situation to the status "before the coup," Washington carefully cut and sequentially pumping the brutal cruelty of the punitive machine Kiev, did everything that Putin could not abandon the troops.
But by July it became clear that the militia not to break. Kiev only "strategy" I don't know that if the breakaway regions stand up against the government forces at least two months, the chances to suppress the rebellion the government tend to zero.
Meanwhile, in July the new Russia has passed crisis point. This was followed by the retreat and the loss of significant areas, but in July the balance of forces has ceased to be incomparable. Ukrainian aviation lost and the sky retained only the ability to strike at urban areas with high altitude (it is not enough to support the operations of the troops). The militia has already started in some places try to apply counter-attacks using armor, beginning to counter-battery fire, forming the first artillery groups.
In General, against a grab-bag of units of the former armed forces of the former Ukrainian battalions of neo-Nazis, private armies and oligarchs simply bandit groups like "the corps of the Right sector" in July, were already operating a small, but trained, equipped and constantly growing army. This army has already had the opportunity to send most of the volunteers in the rear, the provision for training. At the front of these reserves came at the end of August, but it is ridiculous to think that the Americans did not know about them, if you know almost everything.
That is, the US knew perfectly well that the Kiev government will be overthrown, but formally Russian troops on the territory of Ukraine shall not enter (or will enter, but only when Romanian will be included in Moldavia, Hungarians in Transcarpathia and Galicia in Polish). Kiev government to overthrow the Ukrainian people in the face of the militia of Novorossia. Putin once again showed Americans that he is ready to play on their field by their rules and win beautifully.
If Americans wanted to save Poroshenko, they would have advised him to pull the troops to take a defensive position and start negotiations, while organizing him a shield against its own radicals. The offensive of the militia was slow, and Ukrainian troops, under orders, had to move away. But they are still such an order is not received, conversely, their urge to pointless suicide attacks.
Besides, Poroshenko had to dissolve the Parliament in the beginning of the offensive of new Russia, and Americans also did not stop. Peter A. may, and had no idea that the dissolution of Parliament sharply increases the number of his personal enemies among the hitherto loyal part of the Ukrainian political elite, further destabilizing an unstable situation in the country, but more importantly, Poroshenko leaves the only source of formal power, placing it very specific responsibility for everything that happens in the country. But the Americans knew it. And did not intervene.
From Mariupol to Kiev
As a result, on 29-30 August, the crowd is not innocent people (including armed fighters are unknown to any forces) stormed in Kiev defense Ministry and demanded not only the resignation of the Minister, but also impeachment Poroshenko. Characteristically, in the impeachment should be actively involved Parliament, that is to unseat the President has proposed the dissolved Parliament.
However, it flowers. Major destruction of Ukrainian troops had not yet taken place. They are still surrounded by, but not destroyed, has not yet put Mariupol army Novorossia not yet ready for the storm Zaporozhye. A week or two and will feed the coffins of liquidated boilers and flee, leaving equipment and weapons, frightened "heroes ATO." Of those who manage to escape. And in an extremely radicalized Kiev will be a question of who is to blame for the defeat. Ready one time to guess that the guilty will be Poroshenko, and he blamed the Nazis will impute lack of cruelty in the destruction of the population of Novorossiya and the fight against opponents of the regime in Kiev and other Kiev-controlled cities (particularly if this time happens antiquesca successful revolt in one of the megacities of Novorossii).
At the same time in Dnepropetrovsk Kolomoisky the team used during a flurry of activity in Ukraine that shit and then pay off the liability, passing former ally, deciding whose head to offer Moscow as the farming. I would suggest Korban and Filatov to think about Kolomoiskiy head, but I'm sure they will converge on the head Poroshenko. About Yulia Vladimirovna, to anyone who never forgives and who is confident that she will be able to negotiate with Putin and Merkel to get money, and Obama's army to defend Ukraine to drive, we will not even remember. It is better not to fall into the hands of Peter Alexeyevich.
In General, it just so happened that in the next revolution of interest to all.
Ask what American interest? It is simple, as truth. As mentioned above, it is necessary to pull tail with Ukraine until it finally there is not pinched. Go throwing Poroshenko nekomilfo swore to stand shoulder to shoulder in the fight against "Russian aggression". But if Poroshenko overthrown completely frostbitten Nazis, and even unleash terror, then the United States could suddenly see the light and say: "Yes, democracy failed. Of course, it's Russia's fault that the great Democrat Poroshenko overthrew the Nazis, but still, we Americans cannot continue to support the Kiev government, because it's completely illegitimate, but still consists of absolute morons".
True to Peter A. never spoke about what and when he promised Americans, as, for example, they advised him "bombit" Donbass into the stone age, or how they planned the destruction of the "Boeing", it will have to liquidate. But hardly anyone will be surprised if after a series of defeats, the Kiev troops, who will be accompanied by huge losses, the crowd burst Poroshenko right in the residence.
And another plus. After coming to power, full of Nazis, Poland, Romania, Hungary can attend to the fate of their minorities on the territory of Western Ukraine. Well, entering their troops will be possible only by agreement with Russia, and only to those territories to which Russia would allow. Otherwise, the militia of new Russia to Warsaw walk.
The most important thing that former Ukrainian territories of Eastern European "democracies" opens a window of opportunity for a full-fledged international legal settlement of the consequences of the Ukrainian crisis, taking into account the interests of Russia.
And for all this grace is necessary to Poroshenko disappeared from where the Americans have already squeezed everything they could. Continue to wage war and to provide the right amount of deaths, refugees and destruction can only be a real Nazi regime.
So there is no chance of Poroshenko in his fall all interested in the physical elimination of almost all.
And would take the example of smart Tyahnybok, and all it would have been nice. Tyagnibok much is not lit, never fights, its position in Galicia strengthened. And before you know it, will supply the Polish occupation regime volunteer auxiliary police. And the short story of the Ukrainian statehood end of XX beginning of XXI century Canadians of Ukrainian origin to be taught by the memoirs tyagniboka and not Poroshenko.
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