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The third world on a threshold: Iran will burn Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
Material posted: Publication date: 05-01-2016
New 2016 as sad to recognize it, disproved hopes "all bad remained behind, ahead we will start everything with a clean slate for all good". Reality of a predpodnesl the inflaming basic conflict in the Middle East which can become war.

Iran and Saudi Arabia never were friendly each other the countries. More likely even it is possible to tell that Teheran always was the opponent №1 for Riyadh. It is a lot of reasons for that. And it would be possible to name one of the main things religious disagreements between a Shiism and sunnizmom, having deep historical roots, and oil.

Religious contradictions force to struggle both countries for leadership in the Islamic world in this region. At the same time, in kingdom perfectly understand that after cancellation of sanctions Iran quite lawfully enters the world oil market where it is quite capable to press not simply Saudi Arabia, and even aloud to cut down its incomes of oil sale.

Execution of the known Shiit preacher of sheikh Nimra al-Nimra became the reason of the risen wave of protests against the authorities of Saudi Arabia among the Shiit world. Even in east provinces most SA where lives the Shiit majority, demonstrations against a royal dynasty sauditov have been organised.

The Prime minister of Iraq Nuri al-Maliki named execution by "crime" and has declared that it means the board end sauditov. In Lebanon the vice-president of the Higher Shiit Islamic Council Abdel Amir Kabalan named execution of sheikh Nimra by destruction "reason, moderation and dialogue". Yemen husity named Nimra "the sacred soldier", and court over it - "a farce and frank infringement of human rights".

That is quite clear, the role in a raising of this wave Iran has played also. Here there were attempts of pogroms of embassies of Saudi Arabia which were cut off by the Iranian police. At the same time Iran has charged the Saudi authorities of terrorism support, having declared that Nimr opposed extremists. Saudity have received an occasion to severance of diplomatic relations with Teheran: the kingdom has demanded from the Iranian diplomats immediately to leave country limits.

"Considering an existing situation, the kingdom declares severance of diplomatic relations with Iran and demands from members of diplomatic mission, consular establishments and the organisations concerning them to leave the country within 48 hours. To the ambassador corresponding representation is made. We do not presume to threaten Iran to safety of our country. We intend to prevent Iran in its subversive activities on creation and support of terrorist groups in our country and the countries-allies", - the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia has declared Adele al-Dzhubejr.

Certainly, analysts, political scientists and experts have noticed already that in this region under the pretext of interreligious contradictions other scenario is played also. Otherwise why all Shiit world was silent since 2011 when sheikh Nimra has been arrested?

Was silent and when over it the court was managed. And only after execution such strong wave of indignations and protests has risen? As write some editions in the Near East, in Abu Dabi have caused in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the ambassador of Iran and have handed over it «very rigid note».

About the same has occurred in Incorporated Kingdom, in Bahrain, in Jordan. «Such impression that all very much hasten to specify, what party is better for choosing», «Smells slightly of the big war», - such statements in a press any more a rarity.

Whether Iran in serious opposition in Saudi Arabia can be got involved? By estimations of some specialists, such probability if also is it is very insignificant: Teheran yet too is ready to it. Besides, for sauditami, as it is known, there is also Washington, and, partly, Tel Aviv. Whether its western "poles" - still a question However, will help "sonny".

"If Iran and Saudi Arabia directly faces, Saudi Arabia it will not be simple, and, quickly enough. Saudi Arabia - the country though also rich, but Iran - serious. At the open conflict Teheran will find to itself enough allies in region whereas Riyadh, hoping for the help of the USA, can this support and not receive", - the president of institute of the Near East Evgenie Satanovsky has declared Lifenews.

By the way, mass-media already write that the head of committee of chiefs of staffs of Armed forces of the USA general Joseph Danford already arrives to Ankara - there it will meet the colleague Hulusi Akarom because of "situation aggravations in region because of rupture dipotnosheny of some the countries with Iran".

That to oil. Created conditions already have pushed the prices for "oil" upwards. Today Saudi Arabia and Iran on volumes of oil extraction among the OPEC countries take accordingly the first and fifth place. Their opposition, and is possible even the regional conflict, will strongly be reflected in world level of oil extracting.

February futures in the exchange markets, i.e. shares on oil purchasing, have already grown on 1,96 %, to $37,77 for barrel. At the London stock exchange the rate has grown on 3,3 %. Assumptions are come out that at conflict growth, at further obostroenii conditions in region, the prices for oil will continue the growth.

In Teheran the decision on severance of diplomatic relations between the countries have apprehended very negatively. Decisions of the authorities of Saudi Arabia here consider as the huge strategic miscalculation what Hosejn Amir Abdollahian has declared the deputy minister of foreign affairs of Iran. And in its words there is a big element of truth: now to kingdom it is absolutely not necessary still obin the scale conflict.

Nine-monthly war in Yemen which is led by Saudi Arabia, was reflected in the state budget, and without that shabby by the fallen prices for oil. Scarce the state budget became already at the price in $80 for barrel. Still prior to the beginning «the Yemen adventure» the kingdom authorities have resorted to external loans that happens for the first time for decades.

And still. The scenario of war of Iran with Saudi Arabia miscalculated military experts already many years ago. For example, despite refusal of the nuclear program, at Iran it is a lot of rockets which "are exact enough that them could use against military bases and other military facilities". Thus range of action of the majority of rockets "confidently covers the most part of the east of Saudi Arabia - region where saudovtsy extract the oil and gas most part". And after all Teheran has created set of "false" rocket bases - that the royal Air Forces, and ABM systems on the way had not time to destroy them...

"At the best, Saudy will have time to throw aircraft on airdromes on the country West where it becomes rather inefficient. Saudy also will be forced to remove fleet from ports, passive expectation of its destruction will be alternative. The fleet will not have other choice how to try to attack Iranians and to be sunk", - specialists in 2011 wrote.

Events, meanwhile, develop more promptly, than it was possible to expect. After Bahrain and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have made of the power of Sudan the decision on severance of diplomatic relations with Iran.

"Militarily both Sudan, and Bahrain - weak help for Saudi Arabia. Both there, and there - the most serious internal problems that is why liberate however-or a serious resource for sauditov they simply cannot", - writes El Mjurid. He also recognises "Nevertheless, the situation obviously leaves on new level - the region is ready to be at war already really, without any these modern hybrid wars".

Then war already on a threshold?

Alja Pustova


Source: <http://www.politonline.ru/interpretation/22884722.html>


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