On Monday the Turkish artillery has opened fire on one of settlements in the north of Syria in a province Latakia, has reported Sana. "The Turkish authorities are responsible for firing by region Dzhabal-Otejra artillery in northern Latakia in which result peace citizens" have suffered, - is told in the agency statement. Under the available data, it not the first artillery attack put by Turkey on territory of Syria.
In the afternoon before the Turkish side has acted with charges to Russia in infringement of its air space by the Russian warplane of Su-34. However, accurate proofs to it neither from Turkey, nor from the NATO it has not been shown that gives grounds to speak about possible provocation.
What the increased activity and the raised aggression of the Turkish side on the Syrian border and how much all it is fraught with more serious geopolitical consequences can mean?
If to reject excessive assumptions and the political EC, this point in question is automatically narrowed to the simple: whether Turkey collects in the near future to begin military operations on the Syrian border or not. Considering availability in Latakia the Russian troops, it is necessary to understand that with a high probability in operations will appear fastened and they.
The first and perhaps the most optimistical version of the reasons of aggressive actions of Turkey is attempt of destabilization of a situation on the eve of negotiations in Geneva. The success of these negotiations on the Syrian settlement can serve as the beginning of stabilisation of a situation in the country that is not included in any way into plans of Ankara having on it the kinds. While the conflicting parties in Syria and could not formulate any accurate positions on for what they wait from negotiations. On this background small military zavarushka on the Turkish-Syrian border it is capable to break negotiating process for uncertain time.
The second version looks is much more disturbing. According to it, Turkey is ready to dare at a desperate step, having arranged in region high-grade war, with involving in it Russia, and the NATO is possible also. «Russia and Turkey are today on the verge of war», - military expert Alexander Golts in the interview DW confirms this version. The expert pays attention that on bases of Turkish air forces "orange" level of alarm on January, 31st has been declared. It means that the Air Forces of Turkey are resulted in an alert and pilots have the right to open fire without the preliminary coordination with command.
We are on a threshold of the local Russian-Turkish military conflict, - the expert speaks. Is it is fraught with that at the further escalation the conflict will not manage to be kept at level of the local.
As though pugajushche similar assumptions did not sound, the probability of development of the similar extreme scenario is high enough.
The matter is that both Turkey and its authoritative leader Redzhep Erdogan have appeared in enough uneasy situation. Promising to the population economic prosperity and hardly probable not restoration of Ottoman empire Erdogan, instead has faced an economic crisis and the foreign policy failure connected with the introduction into game of Russia, risen on protection of official Damascus. Thus, attempt to switch attention a Turk from internal problems on geopolitical successes is not has gone right to the Turkish leader. Hopes have failed also, to use chaos in Syria and to pick up under the wing northern territories of this country occupied ethnically close Turks turkomanami.
Removal of sanctions from Shiit Iran became the second grandiose defeat of Ankara, obviously aspiring to adjust allied relations with Russia. Seeming inevitable strengthening of Iran gives up as a bad job (or, perhaps, a half moon) all ideas of Erdogana to make Turkey the main player on Near-Eastern "chessboard". There is no doubt that Teheran which has escaped from under sanctions will not allow to Ankara to receive complete control over region.
The only thing that in this situation can salvage somehow image of the Turkish national leader is a switching of attention of the population on the conflict to the powerful external enemy upon which role Russia itself has thrust. Besides effect uniting the nation, this conflict will destroy and the developing status quo in region that solves the main foreign policy task of Turkey.
Whether will venture such step of Erdogan? The question difficult and the answer to it is covered in features of the person of the most Turkish leader. Judging by impulsiveness and cynicism of its last actions, it is impossible to exclude an extreme variant.
Heading the country which is the member of NATO, Erdogan understands that the military conflict of Turkey to Russia possessing modern efficient army, will put the North Atlantic block in extremely difficult situation. The alliance and in a bad dream cannot present itself collision between nuclear Russia and not less nuclear NATO. However, alliance rules oblige him will stand up for a member on whom the attack is made.
In it, it is possible and the explanation of last actions of Turkey is covered. Not to be at war with Russia in private, without victory guarantees, Ankara will try to translate the conflict from a line Turkey-Russia, on a line Russia-NATO. For this purpose it will be necessary for it to appear in a role not an aggressor, and a victim of aggression that is the most difficult task. The only thing its decision is successful provocation. For example, artillery attacks on territories of Syria or Turkish intrusion on its territory can provoke the Russian military men to reciprocal actions. As a result, under blow of complexes С-400 placed near to the Syrian border the Turkish plane can get. Also, the Russian bomber can is casual fly again on territory of Turkey, or will be forced to issue the rocket which will fall to this territory. All is Ankara can easily present, as aggression in the address, with all that it implies. And these consequences are already known for all.
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