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Trump an ultimatum to Iran: either a new contract or "something will happen"
Material posted: Pankratenko Igor N.Publication date: 11-05-2018
Trump's decision to withdraw from the so-called "nuclear deal" with Iran and impose new sanctions against Iran, the world met in different ways. London, Paris and Berlin expressed regret that Moscow announced its "deep disappointment", Beijing condemned, Ankara criticized. The deputies of the Iranian Parliament, having received information about the incident in Washington, right in the courtroom burned an American flag and a copy of the agreement on a Joint comprehensive plan of action (SVPD/JPOA). Israel "under the guise of" once again — in the night from 9 to 10 may, a few hours after the negotiations Prime Minister Netanyahu with Vladimir Putin — bombed multiple Iranian facilities in Syria. Well, oil is expected went up, though not very critical, but — first step is the hardest.

A faint hope that trump still will not go on such a decisive step, born according to the results of intensive consultations in Washington with its European partners, finally died. And on may 9 the world has entered a new — or old, depending on your point of view — reality. In which Iran again rogue and again under sanctions, and, as reported by the American President, they will be even more efficient and even "cool."

Of course, the main reasons for such a drastic and hard thing Donald trump are purely inter-character. Too much time in the course of his election campaign of the current occupant of the White house devoted to criticism of his predecessor Obama for this deal, and too often he promised his constituents to break. So often that question has taken principled — Americans, by and large, Iran is quite indifferent, but to fulfill election promises of the winner of the presidential race, they are much more sensitive.

And well if only the voter, in all countries it is quite unpretentious, and could be patient. But there is also the obligation of trump to the sponsors. Three billionaire, generously contributing to the Foundation of the Republican party and "sacrifice" for the election campaign of the current President — Sheldon Adelson (almost $ 90 million over three years), Bernard Marcus (9.5 million in 2016) and Paul singer (the same 9 and a half million and the same 2016) — gave the money with the condition of holding a trump purely Pro-Israel policy and, therefore anti-Iran. The same Adelson actively lobbied the issue of the transfer to Jerusalem of the U.S. Embassy in Israel, and Marcus is somehow unsophisticated said in an interview with Fox News that in his opinion, "Iran is the devil".

But there is another side to this issue. For all its external flourish and categorical, trump, in fact, very quickly learn to calculate the consequences of their steps in politics. And since he decided to cut a deal with Iran despite the urging of European leaders, they did it because it is absolutely certain — in the end they will accept and support this step.

Yes, the Europeans are actively developing the Iranian market, their aggregate trade turnover with Iran only for the first two months of this, 2018 year amounted to 3 billion 740 million euros. But that's the point that relations with Washington and access to U.S. financial system for them is much more important. In 1994-1996 bill Clinton was actively imposed against Iran the sanctions which were beaten in the first place for European investors in the Iranian economy. In 2009-2011 the same with enthusiasm was engaged in Obama. Europe grumbled, officially outraged — but in practice, German, French, Italian, British and other businessmen and bankers in the end, all imposed by Washington limits rather meticulously kept.

The same Emmanuel macron, commenting on the decision of trump, dramatically stated that "we have opened a Pandora's box, there may be a war." But just a minute later voiced the idea that France, like other European partners of the USA to join the solution "missile programs of Iran and its destabilizing actions in the middle East". Which, translated from diplomatic language into human means only one thing: "We, of course, such a drastic step, the us President is not happy, but his anti-Iranian policy in General supported". Oh and if Washington guarantees European business allowances in the sanctions regime and compensation for losses — then the problem will generally be removed.

Besides, American and European diplomacy now, by chance or by appointment — quite successfully play out in front of Tehran standard scheme of "good and bad COP". Washington's all tough and aggressive, and Europe — as "glavnokomanduyuschego": "You, there, in Tehran, not only don't make any sudden moves, all is not lost, we would work something out"... Deceived, of course, but later because of the reversal of the political course of 180 degrees of the public in their countries still need to explain the XXI century in the yard, democracy and all that.

It is noteworthy that China and Russia to take part in this intrigue around Iran not yet invited. With China, Washington has its own, separate from the rest of the geopolitical chess game, gradually covering the rest of the world. In which the Iranian issue — compared to the rockets Beijing on disputed reefs in the Spratly archipelago in the South China sea and "strange trade war" — not the main one.

As to Moscow, that tactics trump is obvious. To impose Russia sanctions — by the way, their new piece against the Russian defence structures were introduced almost simultaneously, a statement about trump's withdrawal from the Agreement with Iran — and then to begin negotiations about their weakening. In exchange for the assignment of the Kremlin to the Iranian issue. Moreover, the optimistic statement by Netanyahu, that "Russia will not interfere with the actions of Israel in Syria [in fact — to target Iran and Hezbollah on Syrian territory — I. P.]" he made after talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, gives Washington hope to negotiate with Moscow on the subject is possible.

In the end, what would they not say diplomats, it is clear that Iran once again expect tough times "crippling sanctions", foreign pressure, information-psychological sabotage and "undeclared war." A huge ball, which closely entwined internal and external factors that pushes trump to the escalation of tensions around Iran. To back off, to retreat an American President today cannot. And therefore will make every effort to have his ultimatum to Tehran — or you make concessions and enter into a new, basic suiting your opponents in the US and the middle East, the contract, or "something happens" — was adopted by the Iranian side. The problem for the rest of the world lies only in the fact that the usual diplomatic action to force Iran to sign the surrender and accept the onerous conditions of the new agreement is absolutely impossible.

Igor Pankratenko


Tags: Iran , Russia , USA

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