In the far East, without exaggeration, is undergoing tectonic changes: on the background of confrontation of North Korea with Japan, Japan with China, China and the United States, the United States and Russia appear surprising new alliances. Each of the players in the region pursues its own interests, and in recent years the most active Beijing and Tokyo: they are frantically searching for allies in the impending fight with each other. Russia in this conflict was between two fires – both China and Japan would like to gain support, and try to bring Moscow to its side.
The second life of Japanese militarism
Amid the diplomatic revolution in the far East of the iconic looks of the recent speech by Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe. A senior official of the Country of the rising sun stated the need to counter Chinese expansion in the Pacific. According to Shinzo Abe, Japan is ready to support any state that shares the same principle. The Prime Minister believes that this country may be Russia.
Abe is known in his homeland as a militarist, a lover of drastic measures. The Japanese have different opinions on its role in domestic politics: in the first period of his reign Shinzo Abe was forced to resign due to a series of corruption scandals and failures in the economy. After that the country began a Ministerial reshuffle, which led by Abe's liberal democratic party was plunged into prolonged crisis and lost the confidence of voters.
Changed a few leaders, LDPE revived. The important role in her recovery has played Abe: oddly enough, but he drove the party into the chaos of internecine conflict, and saved her charismatic behavior.
And the behavior of the Prime Minister deserves a separate comment. The fact that Abe visited the Yasukuni Shrine and worship to the souls of soldiers who fought on the side of militarist Japan during the Second world war. This causes irritation within the Country of the rising sun, and in the neighboring States of Asia, where revisionism of history is considered unacceptable. In China and South Korea, Shinzo Abe is perceived as Yarosh in Russia: attempts to rewrite the past should strictly not be tolerated, especially when it comes to the rehabilitation of fascism.
Because of this, China is sensitive about the conflict with Japan. Abe attempts to voenizirovanaya the country lead to the fact that in Beijing consider confrontation with Tokyo as the echo of the Sino-Japanese war 1937-1945 period.
Shinzo Abe supports the revival of the militarist spirit of Japan, not only in words but also in deeds. He actively lobbies of all military reform, which will transform the self-defense Forces of the country into a full-fledged army ready to perform tasks anywhere in the world. The Prime Minister has ensured that the self-defense Forces appeared powers to attack the outer bases of the enemy and to come to the aid of allies. If earlier Japan, in accordance with the Constitution, had a right only to defend itself on its own territory, now the Japanese army gradually transformed into an offensive force.
And Japan have someone to fight outside its borders. Tokyo officially supports Vietnam and the Philippines in their territorial disputes with China. It is about the separation of Islands in the South China sea, including the fate of the Spratly archipelago. Japan gave the Philippines their patrol vessels to Manila to monitor the water near the archipelago. Thus, with the support of Abe in the far East, a new coalition directed against China.
However, Japan, for the sake of creating an anti-Chinese military Alliance is necessary to reconcile the sworn enemies, after all, the Philippines and Vietnam also compete among themselves for the possession of the Spratly Islands. It is unclear how Japan will cut this Gordian knot, however, it can be assumed that the archipelago will go to the Philippines, and Vietnam will receive in return control over part of a special economic zone disputed by China. This is evidenced, for example, a sharp statement Shinzo Abe, in which he spoke for providing military assistance to Vietnam, since China recently began oil production in the disputed sea area.
Also Abe, in an interview said that the situation in the waters of the South China sea, reminiscent of the tense atmosphere that prevailed in Europe before the First world war. The Premier compared China with the German Empire, and Japan – with the UK.
This forces the conflicting parties are quite comparable. Although the population of China is over 1.35 billion people, its army has mostly obsolete weapons. The population of Japan reaches 130 million people, but in its defense Forces are investing huge amounts of money, and besides, Tokyo has an absolute technological advantage over Beijing. Also the war of Japan against China can join the 92 million Vietnam 96 million Philippines, 23 million Taiwan, 48 million people in the Republic of Korea. However, even in the best case, anti-China grouping by population would give China four times.
"Hot" conflict between Vietnam and China is already underway. Court of both States until a bloodless encounter at the border of the territorial waters, while Vietnamese cities began Chinese pogroms. China and Vietnam fought in 1979, and then China lost its tanks were on enemy territory several tens of kilometres and got stuck in the jungle. All offensive capabilities, the PLA was offset by the difficult mountain terrain and dense vegetation. A month after the outbreak of war in Beijing realized that to continue the conflict makes no sense, and went back on their word.
Given historical experience, it is safe to say that Vietnam has a chance to deal with the Chinese army, if China does not use nuclear weapons. Besides Japan, says its Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will not stand aside, and help the enemy of his enemy. Moreover, we should expect informal support from Washington, which will use the war to weaken China, although in the open, your troops will not send.
The contours of an anti-China coalition
Besides Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan and other Far Eastern countries Japan wants to enlist the help of Russia. Although Shinzo Abe has taken a tough stance on the ownership of the Spratly archipelago, he is not so categorical when it comes to the issue of the Kuril Islands. You might think that the militarist Abe is ready to make concessions, but it is not so: any government that will renounce claims to the Kuril archipelago, will automatically lose popularity in the eyes of voters and will go to the dustbin of history. Therefore concessions from the Prime Minister of Japan should not be expected, although it certainly will soften the dialogue with Moscow and, unlike their Western counterparts, will not impose restrictions in relation to Russia.
Russia needs Japan in order to conduct a dialogue with China. In Tokyo you know that it is impossible to bring Moscow to the side of the anti-China Alliance, but the Kremlin at least help in the dialogue with Beijing. Russia can use this to promote their own interests in the far East on the principle of "quid Pro quo".
Russia the actions of Japan. In Asia it is necessary to preserve the balance of power, based on a system of balances and checks. It is impossible that in the far East who had become stronger than its neighbours, be it China, Japan or the United States. Russia is already under heavy pressure from European destinations; what happens if the "second front" opened in the Asia-Pacific region? To military-political consolidation of the Asian countries did not take place, it is important that the conflict between them was endless, turned into a kind of cold war.
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