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The war over Karabakh: a trap for Erdogan?
Material posted: Publication date: 03-04-2016

It is characteristic that so far only nevykazovala party on the occasion of the beginning of hostilities in Karabakh remains Iran. States, Russia, duty mumbled something on behalf of Leopold. Erdogan has supported Baku. And Iran lurks and sits as quiet as a mouse. Apparently, doesn't want to draw attention to its role in these events.

The essence of armed conflict around Karabakh in antiarthrosis intrigue, instigated by the US and supported by Russia. Ilham Aliyev and Recep Erdogan took a trip to the nuclear summit, talked with each other and with Barack Obama. The latter is clearly encouraged them in terms of Karabakh. States do it easily. At the time, Saddam Hussein has sought advice from Bush on the occasion of Kuwait. "Take all you want", came the reply. "It's all your stuff". As soon as Saddam believed, took the 19th province of Iraq under control, he be a friend of the USA became the axis of evil, and came as came.

States lying, like breathing! In this case, nothing is more important for America, as the neutralization of the current Turkish regime. After all, this is the real root of the perspective of political Islam, which already relies on a legitimate base. This is not the initiative of outsiders, and recognized state with historical tradition, a member of NATO. It is scary: political Islam based in Turkey, can really acquire the contours of a global player and return to the historical stage. The rate for the USA is very high.

As for Russia, its reason to participate in the overthrow of Erdogan go much further than that downed SU-24. Disable the current Turkey is to deprive Western of the PRC. In this case, China will be forced to be tied to cooperation with Russia, which he wanted to avoid. And since Russia, as is obvious to everyone, in tandem with the USA, China falls into a full geopolitical dependence on Washington.

As Nagorno Karabakh is associated with evil intent against Ankara? Yeah just! If Turkey will help Baku, Russia gets an excuse to protect the CSTO member in accordance with the bilateral treaties. It will be a NATO aggression against members of the CIS. Thus, it is possible that the US may mouth Kerry gave guarantees that will allow Moscow to do it. If Erdogan will leave Baku alone, regardless of the progress of hostilities, it can become a serious undermining its position at home. In addition, Aliyev will turn to Turkey with a 99% guarantee the arrival of the anti-Turkish, Pro-Russian regime in Azerbaijan.

Then Turkey, even while maintaining "neutrality", will get themselves against the potential the Caspian front in addition to black sea and Syria. In this context, it is understandable why Russia is so actively increased the Caspian grouping of the Navy. It seemed that she had no opponent. Now with the beginning of hostilities in Karabakh is clear that the enemy — Azerbaijan.

But back to Iran. It is clear that Iran virtually guarantees the survival of Armenia, the last quarter of a century. Moreover, as funny as it may seem in light of Baku's great ideas about "southern Azerbaijan", the truth is the opposite. Iran considers and former Irevan khanate and modern Azerbaijan as its temporarily lost territory.

Will you go Moscow getting of Azerbaijan and Armenia under the control of Tehran? Still as satisfied! This "restoration" of the Persian Empire, so it will weaken due to the internal turmoil that she gets completely dependent on Russia. The increment of ten million Iranian secular post-Soviet Azerbaijanis and three millions of Turks who hate Armenians, it is the same as the shark to swallow a grenade.

Further will depend on the goodwill of Moscow: to punish or not to punish? The costs of Crimea will seem like a stolen wallet on the background of such "usernae". However, the tricky Iran is unlikely to make any dramatic gestures until there is the slightest threat to the smooth existence of the Ahmadiyya. Supporting Armenia, Tehran has provided long-term destabilization between Turkey, Azerbaijan and Russia, which the Persians believe in the long run working for them.

In itself, their silence telling. They don't want to speak out against Azerbaijan's support for Armenia, because it will cause an explosion of anger among Azerbaijanis in Iran. They don't want to speak out against Armenia in support of Azerbaijan, as this would be contrary to every policy in the South Caucasus. They do not want to repeat platitudes Moscow and Washington because it is "beneath their dignity". It remains only to be silent.

The negative side of what is happening is that the Erdogan regime is suffering, as in the case of intervention, and in the case of non-intervention in current events. Of course, the matter would decide itself, if the Azerbaijani army was able to brave the blitz to return Karabakh independently. Thus, Armenians should "to reconcile" with the same result. However, the most likely scenario of prolonged action and is not in favor of Baku. People will be unhappy, and the "world community" will make the Azerbaijanis.

In short, behind the scenes played a very poisonous move in the region.

Heydar Jemal


Source: http://echo.msk.ru/blog/dzhemal/1741016-echo/


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