Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Defence and security / / Articles
"For two or three days will be able to reach Kiev"
Material posted: Publication date: 27-04-2014

Two former head of the General staff of the Russian Armed forces shared with the newspaper VIEW his thoughts on a possible peacekeeping operation of Russian troops in Ukraine. A number of other retired military believes that the Ukrainian army will not have a serious resistance, but Russia still should not interfere in what is happening.

Former intelligence chief grouping defense Ministry in Chechnya, major-General, retired Sergey Kanokov explained the newspaper VIEW that to lock Donbass from militant attacks would take just four connections: twoor three brigades of special forces (GRU, "polite people" approx. VIEW) to block offensive Kiev forces and oneor two mechanized infantry brigades to create a secured perimeter around the protected areas.

"We don't mean fighting, but only a peacekeeping operation. So there will be enough special operations forces the brigades of special purpose. These are people on the same "Tiger" and given them a motorized connections on BTR or airborne troops. Plus need air support helicopters, Border service means the CFC is to control the administrative border, the internal forces to maintain security in the territory. But local self-defense forces together with the local police, people's militia of Donbass and other power structures Donetsk and Lugansk regions must disarm "Right sector" and all the other militants", said the former intelligence chief.

According to him, all these parts are ready within one hour after the order to proceed to the execution of combat missions, and after a few hours to complete it. "For a few hours can lock helicopters landed troops, covers all major areas of the checkpoints. After this suited infantry. Disarmament is carried out by the militia. Enough to put roadblocks, and then they operate with the support of Russian troops that is, the militia carried out, and Russian troops only cover and support" outlined Kanukov a possible scenario for the introduction of troops.

He also expressed confidence that the Ukrainian part, in the event of such a development will not resist and will even go over to their side. "The armed forces of Ukraine give up in permanent locations and no resistance peacekeeping forces. In the case of resistance adequate measures", said the major-General.

"For twoor three days the army could reach Kiev"

Vice-President of Academy of geopolitical problems, captain first rank of reserve Konstantin Sivkov also said the newspaper VIEW that the strong resistance of the Russian troops in Ukraine no one will put.

"It needs people ready to fight, and not a few people who did some shooting and ran away. And if to be resisted, I don't think it will be very strong. It is possible that problems will be overcome when the canals and ditches that there was ponakupali, but then I think they will just go around it. So for a daytwo at most in twoor three days the Russian army could reach Kiev", said Sivkov.

He explained that the lack of large-scale hostilities with the use of regular parts proves that Ukraine has no military, who agree to shoot at their fellow citizens and to die for the political ambitions of Kiev politicians.

"If these people were, they would have eliminated all the roadblocks in Slavyansk. It's not terrible, which was created by a very powerful barrier system and using a huge number of weapons. In Slavyansk there's nothing there, some barricades. If a tank or machine razgranicenja will go to this barricade, they will carry it and not even notice. So the Ukrainian military, with tanks, could easily enter the city, to occupy administrative buildings. But they don't do it! Why? Afraid Of Russia? No, they're armored vehicles already sent to Sloviansk. But these armored vehicles defected to the rebels. So only one conclusion: the troops to stand in the cordon to go to war they don't want. Moreover, (the Ukrainian military) there's no food sitting, they are "militants" fed", said Sivkov.

He added that liberation of the South-East of the Russian army don't have to use the "modern weapons", only need "just to drive there". "These are our people and our equipment, we just returned myself, so why would we bomb them with missiles? We will conduct negotiations", explained the expert.

"And there is a boundary of Ukraine"

Thus Sivkov explained that if Russia introduces troops to Ukraine, the response may be followed by NATO. "Rapid March towards the can to move NATO troops. In the area of contact of Russian and NATO troops and there is a boundary of Ukraine. The biggest risk is the possibility of fire clashes between them, as this will inevitably lead to the need of the use by Russia of nuclear weapons: land forces Europe almost 10 times superior to Russian, else we will not" said Sivkov.

According to him, in the case of the intervention of NATO military action in Ukraine will be "classic military operation using terrestrial equipment, means of suppression of intelligence, fire support from the air, for winning the air superiority, the air landing, capture bridgeheads". "Talk about the fact that this war is over it's the talk of Amateurs. They go on forever. This operation was in Iraq," said the expert.

Thus Sivkov noted that NATO in such a scenario, obviously, will not go, because "there are not complete idiots, to enter into full-scale conflict with Russia". "So, most likely, it will end a local conflict, and the actions will be local, to carry out a General mobilization in NATO will not be. The whole operation will not go weeks or months, hours at most, in the most serious incident of the day, nothing more", suggested Sivkov.

"Definitely the international forces, including NATO"

Ex-head of Geneba Armed forces, army General Yuri Baluyevsky said the newspaper VIEW that while there are no conditions for the intervention of the Russian army in Ukraine, although there have shed blood and die the militia.

"If we make the decision to use peacekeeping forces, it must be an international force, including NATO countries, and in this case we get what we have today. To enter peacekeepers in the framework of the CIS, need the agreement of the other CIS countries. But no consultations in this direction does not conduct. The same Turchynov asked to enter to Ukraine NATO's military forces as peacekeeping forces," said Baluyevsky.

According to him, the situation is aggravated by the fact that different forces in the South-Eastern regions are apart. "While there is no single impulse, there is no clear unity in action, for example, Lugansk and Donetsk regions, do not understand the position of the Kharkiv region. Has its own defense forces, militia in Lugansk, Donetsk region, someone out there in Odessa noise but it's fragmented", explained ex-the chief of the General staff.

According to Baluyevsky, to join the militia and to urge Moscow to help could "only legitimate President Viktor Yanukovych," but it now "is not heard and not seen". "According to the logic of a legitimate President in the person of Yanukovych was to combine all these areas into a single, well-organized, at least in words, a power that would put the clear requirements which would result in the understanding in the Southeast of Ukraine. But while it clearly doesn't sound", said Baluyevsky.

"Pit now common Slavic people"

While Baluyevsky stressed that can not afford even the thought that there might be "armed confrontation of the Russian army with the armed forces of the Ukrainian people". "Yesterday our partners-the U.S. and NATO are doing everything to turn now unified Slavic nation, to push Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine today is a small chip in the great game. But why should we intervene there? On what basis? None of the items prescribed in the "Law on defence", is not suitable. Of course, there is paragraph 2 of article 10 is to protect Russian citizens. If there is someone from the Russians seize and hold, as the NTV correspondent with the Belarusian passport? But I'm sure the same Avakov will understand and will release", said Baluyevsky.

Former chief of General staff reminded of the assessment of defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced on Thursday: the number of Ukrainian group, which is involved in the operation against militias, is 11 thousands "of armed mendiluted the "Right sector", which depict the armed forces of Ukraine". In this they are opposed by two thousand militia."

"The ratio is roughly one to five, all canons must win the party that anymore. But there have been cases when a large number of army suffered defeats. After all, who are these 11 million? This is not the army, which will execute the command "fire at will" for his people, and shoot his neighbor, his fellow countryman. Even these Bandera all is not lost: when the militia takes them and expel ago, they have a completely other face. So there is no reason for us to intervene in it", has added Baluevsky.

"We need a clearly stated goal of the operation"

According to Baluyevsky, the only feasible and affordable option as long as the one who chose the foreign Minister of Russia Sergey Lavrov: to ensure that the world community, "where still there until the end of insane people", "see who stands today for those who is at war with his people, and how the Ukrainian people defend their land, their children."

"While heavy weapons, planes, helicopters, tanks even not directed at people, the expert added. It means that something else keeps them! I think that holds including the responsibility before the world community, the Hague court or other Tribunal, because then it will inevitably be in this case", underlined Baluevsky.

According to the former chief of the General staff, the defense Ministry of Russia "doing everything right" monitors the situation and demonstrates "the ability and determination of the Armed forces of Russia to stand up for their interests, to ensure the security of its borders and citizens." "If I was in the chair and the chief of the General staff, I would have done the same thing", Baluyevsky admitted the newspaper VIEW.

His successor as chief of the General staff, author of current appearance of the Russian Armed forces, army General Nikolai Makarov also said the newspaper VIEW that to talk about possible scenarios and it's early.

"Needs clearly defined goal (the military operation). When it is known, then we can talk about what forces and means needed for its implementation. What is the goal, we don't know. Now any projections will be hypothetical, and hypothetically any possible scenarios", Makarov said the newspaper VIEW.

Text: Marina Baltaeva

Source: http://vz.ru/politics/2014/4/25/684025.html


RELATED MATERIALS: Defence and security
Возрастное ограничение