Saudi Arabia Qatar presented the 10 conditions for normalization of relations. Riyadh has given 24 hours for their implementation. The ultimatum was reported in Abu Dhabi, Sky News Arabia, citing diplomatic sources.
"This ultimatum may encourage Qatar to show the character"
Three important points from this list: the severance of diplomatic relations Qatar and Iran, the expulsion from the country of representatives of "Muslim brotherhood" and Hamas (and freezing their accounts in Qatari banks), an immediate change in leadership of the TV channel "al Jazeera" and to change its editorial policy.
About the reaction of Qatar to the demands of the Saudis is still unknown. Head of the Qatari foreign Ministry said earlier that Doha will not take retaliatory measures, and urged the country to negotiate.
As of Tuesday with Qatar broke off relations: Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Yemen, Libya's interim government, the Maldives, Mauritius and Mauritania. Qatar suspended from participation in military operation in Yemen, which leads the coalition, led by the Saudis. The coalition command has accused Doha in support of the IG* and "al-Qaeda". The support of Qatar by the President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Doable if the conditions of the Saudi
"Most interesting is that the period of performance of the Saudi ultimatum to – day," – said the newspaper VIEW head of research middle East conflicts and the armed forces of the region of the Institute of innovative development Anton Mardas. "This ultimatum may encourage Qatar to show character," – said the expert.
As for the 10 requirements, they all boil down to the termination of support of various groups, the restructuring of media, and relations with Iran, he summed up Mardas.
Restructuring of the media – the possible, the expert believes. "The Muslim brotherhood" Qatar ceased to sponsor in 2014, it was then one of the conditions of the agreements for the fulfillment of which is very closely monitored. So if Qatar's support, it is very limited, the expert said. About Hamas have doubts, but agree they can.
"The key issue is Iran. Contacts Qatar with Iran are non-public manner," said the source. However, they can use those same Americans how they used the contacts of Qatar with the Taliban, for example, for the redemption of his people. So if Qatar would demonstrate a return to the mainstream politics of the Persian Gulf, and not opinionated politicians, the crisis is resolve, – concluded the expert.
How can reply Qatar
"Qatar may, and undoubtedly do, very tough answer to Egypt by stepping up terrorism in the Sinai and in its towns, can strike on Libya with the help of African mercenaries, especially that Qatar has a major position in Africa. Maybe a lot of things wrong to do, and for Saudi Arabia, given its fight with Iran," – said in comments the newspaper VIEW President of the Institute of Middle East Yevgeny Satanovsky. However, direct military confrontation is expected, the expert believes: "the Arabs are not warriors, they are merchants," and we should expect bargaining.
In 2014, when the relations of Riyadh and Doha have had a similar, though less severe crisis – it came to recall of ambassadors. But then, Qatar was the time to bargain – for about eight months, reminds of Mardas: only for discussion of the Saudi conditions it took a month and a half, after which their performance gave Qatar three months. Now, however, Qatar clearly is in trouble.
Now rich and influential Emirate, suddenly found themselves in the rogue, clearly makes an attempt to "cancel" the formal cause of the crisis.
Doha blames hackers and CNN and the FBI – "Russian hackers"
We will remind, after the summit of the Gulf countries and the United States in Riyadh (where participants unanimously denounced Iran), Qatar news Agency published a statement of the authorities of the Emirate on the necessity, on the contrary, to improve relations with Tehran. The government of Qatar tried to explain that the site was hacked – which, judging by further events, not impressed the Saudis. On Wednesday, the foreign Minister of Qatar Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdel Rahman al-Thani, told CNN: FBI confirmed the version of Doha about hacking and placing fake news.
But CNN went on. Citing unnamed officials, reported that the FBI believes the "Russian hackers" guilty in the scandal with Qatar. "U.S. officials say that the Russian goal was to create tensions between the United States and its allies," – said in a message to CNN. But note that the foreign Minister of Qatar spoke about the hacker just hacking, but not about the "Russian trace".
In the Kremlin allegations of the involvement of Russia to the situation with Qatar has called another a fake. As previously noted the newspaper VIEW, on the contrary, Moscow is interested in establishing relations with Doha. This is indicated by the visit of the Emir Tamim al-Thani to Russia, and part of the Sovereign Fund of Qatar in buying shares in Rosneft. Moscow has absolutely no interest in creating tension between the US and Qatar, said the first Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on international Affairs Vladimir Jabbarov.
However, the United States itself – or rather, the current administration and related business community can use the Qatari crisis and the associated hype (including "the emergence of" ubiquitous hackers) as a smokescreen for a specific business scheme.
On the eve of his Twitter Donald trump said: the speech, which he delivered to Saudi Arabia, led the Arab States to isolate Qatar from the alleged support of Islamist extremism. "Look – the leaders (Arab world) point to Qatar!" – wrote the President of the United States, commenting on the decision of the Saudis and their allies to break with Qatar under the pretext of supporting the Doha terrorists.
Portal Defense News notes: a sharp criticism, which trump criticized Qatar, came at a "delicate moment". Jeopardy is a deal between the US and Qatar on the delivery of 72 multi-purpose fighters F-15QA. Negotiations led by the Obama administration, "at the end" of his presidency, in November 2016. At the moment the deal is not yet finally signed.
Meanwhile, trump has recently signed its own deal with Qatar the main initiator of the crisis and the main rival of Qatar in the region – Saudi Arabia. Preliminary talks with Riyadh led in-law and adviser to trump, businessman Jared Kushner. The results were concluded two agreements on arms sales, the total amount of which reaches 460 billion dollars. The king of Saudi Arabia Salman bin Abdul Aziz called it a turning point.
Version of Defense News about the threat of the deal to supply 72 fighter F-15QA value of 21.1 billion dollars has a right to exist, said in comments the newspaper VIEW military expert Viktor murakhovski. "The transaction can be considered committed if it started delivery and payment. In this transaction neither the one nor the other did not happen", – stated the interlocutor.
Representatives of Boeing, the manufacturer of the F – 15 is trying to show optimism, but the contract clearly hung. But genuine optimism can be, for example, a firm Sikorsky Aircraft: deal with the Saudis including delivery to Riyadh 150 Sikorsrky helicopters UH-60 Black Hawk is $ 6 billion.
We can assume that the deal the Obama administration with Qatar and a deal to the administration of the tramp with the Saudis lobbied various groups associated with the defense industry. In this case, you should pay attention to the figure Jared Kushner – who are considered "won for trump White house". What Kushner was responsible for the preparation of the meeting, trump's leader XI Jinping and preliminary negotiations with the Saudis. In April, trump's son-in-law went to Iraq together with the head of the joint chiefs of staff. At the same time mentioned some meeting-in-law of the President with the influential representatives of middle East players. The very same trump we will remind, shortly before the election made a promise not to leave the MIC without work.
The United States is not interested in real, not "diplomatic" crisis in the relations between its partners Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The US military industrial complex always clapping, if you sell weapons, it does not matter, Qatar or Saudi Arabia, said murakhovski. Therefore, the administration trump will be glad to see the "manifestation of consciousness" and the Qatar – considering that "in the Arab world able to turn in flight, 180 degrees".
Tags: Near East
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