Capturing Crimea, Russia will probably primarily intended to implement the Georgian scenario of 2008 At its heart lay an attempt to provoke Ukrainian servicemen in clashes with the so-called "self-defense Forces of Crimea", and then accuse Kiev of fomenting civil war and to enter the Peninsula by Russian troops. In addition, probably, was planned, and the invasion of the East, and maybe even in the South-Western part of the country. But when it is done, you can sit at the negotiating table with the mediation of the West to sign some kind of agreement, then it is not performed (as it was in 2008 Sarkozy Plan).

But the Georgian scenario in Ukraine could not be implemented. The only thing that is correctly calculated Moscow, so it's sluggish reaction to the annexation of Crimea by the West. However, the key point was the fact that the Ukrainian leadership and the army did not succumb to provocations. Of course, it didn't help Ukraine keep Crimea, but saved her from further planned Russian "blitzkrieg". Being unable to provoke military confrontations, Russia got stuck in a simulated situation, and the date of the "referendum" in the Crimea had to endure the first 30, and then on March 16.

But all this does not mean that the mainland part of Ukraine out of danger. Just Moscow chose a different scenario, the essence of which is destabilization of the situation in the Eastern regions of the country following the example of Crimea. Thus the Kremlin, apparently, is preparing for the second phase of occupation of the Ukrainian territory.

While Russia today has no equal in the propaganda (information) war.

The fact that it is widely used as means of propaganda to shape public opinion within the country and to exert influence on other countries, not news. On their impact, in particular, says a sociological survey held in Russia by "Levada-center". In accordance with its results, 73% of the population of the Russian Federation one way or another agree with the statement that the present Ukrainian government is illegitimate, 74% of Russians are ready to support the government in the event of armed conflict with Ukraine. In other words, Russian society is morally prepared for war, and it is the merit of total local propaganda.

At the beginning of the creation of his "vertical of power" Vladimir Putin has chosen an effective method of control of information, the main attention is paid to the TV. It was his "capture" has allowed to create a propaganda machine, which can not affect either the Internet or other media.

According to the journalist A. Lipsky, visible today attempt to unite Russian society against using "negative mobilization", the essence of which lies in the opposition of "us" and "them". LeFigaro French writes that the Federal channels in covering the events in Ukraine "from above" ordered to use populist cliches about the aggressive nationalists, and "Bendera", the illegitimate Ukrainian government, the economic collapse of a neighboring country, etc.

Thus total Russian propaganda does not tolerate alternative positions. People who try to Express a different – not Pro-Kremlin opinion, are subject to public attacks fall into the category of "foreign" (i.e. "enemies"). For example, the object of such attacks was the famous musician A. Makarevich and lost a professorship known historian A. Zubov, who compared Russia's actions in Ukraine with what Nazi Germany did before world war II.

Under attack and alternative information sources online, which glues the label "anti-state". In connection with this website Politonline.ru even made the list of "anti-Russian" (i.e. those whose position does not coincide with the point of view of the Kremlin) resources. It is really an attempt to discredit any other view of politics and the actions of Russia. Turns out it's pretty quick and easy: possibly because the annexation of Crimea has affected the deeper layers of the Russian identity associated with the concept of Imperial power and the return of "their lands".

The influence of the propaganda machines of Russia and goes beyond it, so the countermeasures had to resort Lithuania. The court's decision was temporarily terminated cable broadcasting of Russian TV channels "NTV - Mir" and "RTR-Planeta", informed the sanctions were imposed on the "First Baltic channel". In order to protect its information space the broadcasting of Russian channels was stopped and the Ukraine. Also, "RTR-Planet" banned in Latvia, and Kazakhstan even considered such a possibility.

However, the various restrictions always cause a negative reaction. More constructive, in this case a offer looks combined forces to create a single Russian-language channel for the Baltic States, which would be a real counterweight to Russian propaganda. With the corresponding initiative was made by Latvia. Agree with her Estonia. However, the timing of the implementation of this project it is not.

A good example is the decision of Lithuania Splius cable operator to include in the basic package of channels offered by Russian opposition TV channel "Rain", which is at home in recent years has faced a lot of challenges. Unfortunately in packages other Lithuanian cable networks, it has not yet appeared.

In General, it seems that in Lithuania there is an understanding that our country is involved in the active phase of the information war. For example, the Russian First channel in March of this year showed the story, which claimed that Lithuania prepared "the militants of the Maidan." In this case there was used a material that was previously demonstrated in other propaganda transmission that made it easy to expose this journalistic duck.

The basis of the information attacks against Lithuania by Russia is a conspiracy theory, according to which on 13 January 1991 "his shot at his". As writes I. Yakovenko, the same theme is repeated in the Russian media, when talking about the victims on the Maidan.

In this case it would be a mistake to assume that the aggressiveness of Russian propaganda due solely to the events in Ukraine. Returning their country to Imperial attributes, Vladimir Putin returned to the Imperial and the principles of propaganda, which, along with the information manipulation today is one of the foundations of the Russian political system. V. Putin was able to mobilize the society by intimidating his mythical enemies and inspiring new victories in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, at the Olympics in Sochi, and now the "return" of Crimea.

The fact that the Russians massively support the capture of the Crimea, points to the fact that Russia no longer has a fuse, which would limit the Imperial ambitions of Vladimir Putin and his entourage. The public is enjoying a resurgent sense of the Empire and its General Russian media created the "only correct" picture of the world. Those who try to question it or speak out against, immediately become "enemies" and "traitors". The information space has become a real battlefield, and this is very bad news for Russia and its companies.

Source: Geopolitika.lt

Tags: assessment , Russia , war , armed forces , information war , Special Forces