Last seventy years the mankind lives without the big war that is natural result of World wars and formation of new international system. The possession constrains the nuclear weapon world powers from conducting operations of strategic scale, promotes development of other receptions and ways of armed struggle, struggle accepts new forms. It would Seem, absence of global confrontations shortly should lead to degeneration of wars in classical understanding, but whether the world from it becomes more safe - it is not known. On the contrary, events of last years show that today we observe not "extinction" of wars, and their evolution, change of intrinsic filling and display forms. In other words, there is a fundamental change of character of wars: socially - political and military - strategic characteristics.
The philosophical bases
In the fundamental work «war Philosophy» A.E.Snesarev has put forward the thesis, some kind of the law, on a continuity of wars. In the given postulate that the author, having considered the various points of view on a being and the war nature is valuable, abstracts, when speaks about war as the social phenomenon. Namely, the recognition of the existence of war as society integral part is primary, and already after there is its analysis positive and negative sides. Consideration of the nature of the given phenomenon, its necessity and an ethical component will be a problem of philosophy of war here also. It is important to people to answer not only a question how to be at war, but also to think of why and what for to be at war . Then also «the military world view» will be generated.
Approximate and practical enough answers to this points in question are formulated in last edition of the Military doctrine of the Russian Federation . In particular, the explanation of the reasons of possible wars is resulted in subitem 9, 10, 12, 13, 14 through definition of the basic military dangers and threats. From the philosophical point of view as it is represented to me, the specified reasons lie in a plane of one main problem - increasing rupture between scientifically - technical progress of a society and it spiritually - moral, cultural development. In economic sense about it spoke K.Marx and F.Engels, developing thought on the antagonistic contradiction of capitalism consisting in discrepancy of relations of production to productive forces, or E.Fromm in the «Flight from freedom» wrote about it with reference to «intellectually - a technical maturity and emotional backwardness» . As a whole, this point in question is developed today by various geopolitical concepts, the Neomarxist theory of dependence, theories of "the rich North» and «the poor South», «the world centre» and «world periphery». If to consider also «systematic variables»  neoclassical realism, for example, perceptions, sensations and intentions of the states applying for world influence we as time will receive «strengthening of a global competition, intensity in various areas of intergovernmental and inter-regional interaction, rivalry of valuable orienting points and development models, instability of processes of economic and political development at global and regional levels against the general complication of the international relations … redistribution of influence in favour of the new centres of economic growth and a political attraction» . And last analytical materials  World banks in the empirical calculations confirm our well-founded fears, showing objective character of arising economic contradictions. For example, the fast-growing countries of East Asia and Pacific region, providing forward growth of gross national product at level 6,8 - 7 % in 2014 and 4,3 % in 2015 (and increasing the share in world gross national product), on - former remain one of the poorest on many indicators . Moreover, for variety of the countries there is a danger of hit in «maltuzianskuju a trap»  that is not so characteristic for the developed countries. Thus, rupture between "centre" and "periphery" reaches level of unsoluble contradictions. In view of activity of the USA in the given region through «navigation freedom» (FON - Freedom of Navigation) and prodavlivanie - Pacific partnership (Trans - Pacific Partnership) and growing ambitions of the Peoples Republic of China on domination in Southern - the Chinese sea, it is quite possible to conclude ideas of the economic union that, despite all assurances of authorities of the states, all of them - taki can get in so-called «a trap of Fukidida». It is rather remarkable, what exactly A.E.Snesarev in domestic military thought has formulated for the first time the expanded economic understanding of the reasons of war and problems of military command when said that «the modern strategist should be both the military man, and the politician, both the economist, and the financier, both the all-round technician, and the persevering propagandist» . The given approach logically continues A.A.Svechina's ideas about an establishment under strategy politiko - economic base instead of former geometrical or spatial. Really, historical process confirms today theses of century prescription of our outstanding thinkers. Today's seats of tension bare deep socially - economic contradictions of social development more and more, opening absolutely new spaces of an antagonism: information, stock market, trade relations and the international networks of communications. Such "overflowing" of war in an unusual field, acquisition of complex character by it staticizes a question on that, and what for in general the mankind should wage wars that leads us to reflexions about sense of war and its current state.
As already it was marked above, the mankind is more inclined to consider questions on, how to wage wars, at times neglecting detailed research of their reasons and intrinsic senses. At the same time, «centuries-old experience of wars shows that dependence of ways of conducting military operations on a way of manufacture is the objective law of development of military art»  that does impossible a development of defence of the state without explanation of the economic reasons which can define character of the future wars. Not less important also the philosophical judgement of war as public phenomenon that will allow to find out its value and «cultural sense»  for historical process here is. As a whole, disclosing of the given problem occurs in frameworks aksiologii (doctrines about values), a component together with an ontology and epistemology a philosophy basis. Thus, aksiologija and ethics as set of views about morals and morals, make original top of philosophical knowledge. Undoubtedly, the history of wars shows us all horror of the given phenomenon, suffering of the whole people and destruction of the won. One Roman «parcere subjectis et debellare superbos»  has enough cost much to the Ancient world. Undoubtedly and another: throughout all human history of war played tsivilizatorskuju a role, acting as the catalyst of outstanding fulfilments and social development. A.E.Snesarev in the works, and then and representatives tsivilizatsionnogo the approach O.Spengler  and A.Tojnbi  consistently show wars as «coupling of collisions» or collision of groups of cultures. Thanks to past wars there was a process renovatsii - replacements of obsolete usages, the states, nationalities younger and progressive, as provided world progress. The mankind in the XXI-st century objectively cannot use means and ways of conducting operations of century prescription. Certainly, it is impossible to compare the modern weapon to arms of armies of the beginning of the XX-th century, but the principle of their action remained the same. Analyzing the last wars and structuring them on several generations, we thereby allocate the most intrinsic lines inherent in their character. It is thought, the today's economic and financial crises interfaced to use of new technologies of indirect action in aggregate with special understanding of value of wars at the given stage of development of a society generate contours of forthcoming wars of new generation. More precisely, throughout last several decades we already observe separate displays of such wars together with application of "traditional" arms. For this reason it is extremely important as it is possible to reorient more effectively state defence according to new calls and to develop, on the one hand, receptions and ways of wars of new generation, to give them the formalized character, and with another - to provide effective protection against similar technologies from other states. Being based on accurate understanding of the philosophical bases of war: its reasons and senses, it is necessary to look differently a little at a question on, how wars forthcoming century will be waged to minimise human a victim and to provide forward world progress.
Military - strategic characteristics
As appears from materials of mass media, the Ministry of Defence of Russia sped up recently work on carrying out of basic researches in sphere of counteraction to terrorism and extremism, economic safety of the country . Modern threats demand also actual answers which should not be reduced only to army "internal function", and changes of approaches to understanding of modern problems of military and operative art, strategy and tactics concern.
Reconsideration of approaches to «to the higher doctrine about war» (as named A.E.Snesarev philosophy of war and the higher areas of military art and strategy), based on comprehension of inevitability of its most fact, leads us to thought that conducting wars «on - old» any more does not provide in a due measure of national interests. Perfection of those military technologies which allow to wage the wars which are not already those in traditional understanding, with the minimum expenses of economic resources and individual human losses Is required. Our visible military theorist G.S.Isserson fairly marked:« All experience of last wars so rich in the tactical relation, hides under cover of uncertainty genuine character of the future operation ». The given thesis is quite actual and now. First of all, the space of an antagonism of the states has changed. Actually geographical characteristics, features of a landscape of district continue to influence only tactical level, in strategic, global scale of war are conducted on absolutely new"fields". Most significant of them are: it is information - communication technologies, financially - economic sphere and international trade. Such essential changes of ontologic characteristics of war are connected with acceleration scientifically - technical progress and perfection of means of defence and an attack. An important point here is also change of a role of concentration at carrying out of military operations as it follows from F. M.Morza's research and J. E. Kimbella «Methods of research of operations» , which rather actually and today. Authors, using the equations of Lanchestera, convincingly enough show, how it is possible to use methods of mathematical modelling with reference to the analysis of military operations. Value of the given approach, despite special reservations of use of the differential equations, consists in possibility of monitoring of operations, proceeding from the set characteristics. In other words, laws of Lanchestera allow «to define, how there was a development of operations if conditions of conducting these operations, defined by the accepted characteristics, remained invariable» . By way of illustration we will result the following table:
Линейный закон Ланчестера
Квадратичный закон Ланчестера
dn/dT = -1/(1+E), dn/dT = -E/(1+E),
m = mₒ-T/(1+E), n = nₒ-TE/(1+E),
dn/dm = E, nₒ-n = E(mₒ-m), где m и n – количество бойцов противоборствующих сторон, T – временная переменная, t – порядковый номер члена последовательности, E – «соотношение потерь», т. е. отношение среднего числа потерь бойцов противоборствующих сторон
dm/dt = (-n/(1+E)×G(t),
dn/dt = (-mE/(1+E)×G(t),
dm/dn = n/mE,
nₒ2-n2 = E(mₒ2-m2), где G – интенсивность боя в момент времени t.
The linear law shows to us that armed forces of two belligerent parties are equivalent, if the relation of initial quantity of their battle units to equally parity of losses E. Hence, the concentration of forces does not bring side benefits. At the same time, as a result of arms evolution (in particular, creations of long-range fire-arms) we cannot divide battle between armies into individual battles any more (that was characteristic especially for a feudal stage) as each participant of battle can deliver fire on any opponent. Therefore, as a time variable in the square-law law of Lanchester uses serial number of all battle, supposing that in t - an ohm battle one fighter of the dark blue party can put out of action on the average (E/1+E) ×G (t) fighters of the red party, and one fighter of the red party on the average (1+E) ×G (t) fighters of the dark blue party. Then we see advantages of a concentration of forces as effective force of each of the parties is proportional to the efficiency of the weapon taken in the first degree, and a square of quantity of the fighters participating in battle.
Thus, it is obvious that the importance of a concentration of forces at a certain stage of historical development is not a constant, battle becomes collective more and more that means not only defeat possibility one participant of any number of opponents by means of the modern weapon, but also increase of a role of other forms and ways of struggle. Occurrence of new technologies and receptions of indirect influence demands considerable reconsideration of a question on concentration with the account of actual realities. Namely, there is a question on a parity of combatant forces of the battling parties (i.e. those m and n). If Morz and Kimbell tried to correlate approximately the battle ships and armies, submarines and planes before us there is already more the challenge consisting in comparison of actually military forces and economic, information. The decision of the given problem just also is directed on judgement of a phenomenon «irreguljarnyh military operations», «hybrid wars» or «unlimited military operations» (as in the military doctrine of the Peoples Republic of China) which for today, besides religious and political aspects , include means information and financially - an economic antagonism more and more. It is quite right noticed that «irreguljarnye actors use hybrid approaches, mixing irreguljarnye tactics, conventional combat training and discipline, hi-tech weapons systems, terrorism and criminal activity for achievement of objects in view and problems» . The Specific mention the concept "mjatezhevojny" deserves E.E.Messnera who has completely proved the solvency. It is thought, the specified characteristics in aggregate and form new generation of wars.
In the fundamental work "Sea war" the known commander and theorist I. M.Kapitanets, besides military - sea questions, has in detail enough described classification of wars. Really, allocation generation of wars on a basis formatsionnogo the approach quite corresponds to a course of historical process and helps us to track occurrence of new ways of struggle at changes of economic basis. At the same time, latest developments testify to change of the sixth generation of wars which can lead further to structural shift in the phenomenon of war. Defining the basic lines of the sixth generation of wars, I. M.Kapitanets absolutely fairly marks prevailing value of systems of the high-precision weapon , which application we today we can observe in Syria. Last trends in the field of receptions and ways of struggle is use of means of indirect action concerning information and financially - economic spheres. Moreover, even are allocated as «the information weapon»  or "economic war" (military - an economic antagonism) , to which else the financial and currency antagonism would be desirable to add such categories. The given way is one of the most dangerous owing to enough high concentration of capital, accumulation of money resources (including and the state defenßÑ order) and is realised mainly through stock market, bank sector and monetary - credit state policy. We still should investigate especially a question of influence of share institutes on national defence. As shows experiment of the Moscow stock exchange, the damage from crash of certain financial indicators is quite comparable to rout of the whole army. It is remarkable that the western military thought welcomes for a long time already use of economic and financial receptions of struggle on global arena. Such known American commanders as James Mettis and Stenli MakKristal after resignation in the works openly write that armed forces of the USA should provide interests of business . It is necessary to notice that financially - economic means of strife are seldom used without simultaneous application of receptions of information war, and usually even are its continuation. Such situation is connected with full legal uncertainty concerning an admissibility of application of indirect influence. Danger irreguljarnyh the military operations interfaced to elements of economic and information war, is their conducting out of frameworks though any is international - legal regulation. Thus within the limits of NATO activity conferences on perfection of the mechanisms applied in cyberconflicts are conducted, their political consequences  are estimated.
Thus, it is quite possible to approve that today we observe formation of essentially new approach to conducting war which will define a geopolitical picture of the future. The interactive library guidebook of the NATO characterising approaches to understanding of ways of conducting of hybrid wars, described as uncertain, not conventional, nonlinear, political, information, asymmetric, irreguljarnye  is indicative. Set of the specified ways also makes new generation of wars. Rather important the question on a parity of conventional and hybrid methods of warfare on which correctness of definition their efficiency depends here is represented. In 2009, acting on military - a strategic forum «Irreguljarnye ways of conducting wars, hybrid threats and the future role of land forces» in the Center of strategic and international researches, the commandant of the Case of marines of the USA of J of that time. Mettis in the performance has defined such parity in favour of ground forces . After six years we can observe considerable failures at realisation of the American foreign policy on spaces from Pacific ocean to the Near East and Europe. The aspiration of the higher military command of the USA to solve any conflict through increase in a number of personnel and arms total, coverage of the maximum zone by the American military presence leads to that such «the stretching of front"does not provide"depth of penetration». It seems that the USA on - former think concepts of times of cold war:« One and a half wars "," two and a half wars », restraint, showing that a definitive failure of the unipolar world. Importance time of" the big armies »and idea of" the big Joint Staffs »has passed irrevocably, the increasing role forces of special operations, mobile and"polite", and the military organisation of the USA unfairly razduta the numerous"commands"dividing the world from Washington on play« responsibility zones ». One state cannot bear exclusive responsibility for fates of peace and mankind. The Russian Federation consistently conducts a line on development of multipolar international system, and today's actions in Syria on a global scale make its integral part. Our approach of use of means and ways of war at realisation of the geopolitical purposes appreciably differs from American as use of conventional means (actually lethal arms) is «last argument», addition of mechanisms of indirect influence. Land forces thus are not applied at all. All last operations of Russia were conducted or in general without a uniform shot, or with the least expenses of manpower resources and combat material. Undoubtedly, adhering to such policy, we thereby form also bases new «a military world view», we define contours of a new world order.
Organizational - administrative and geopolitical conclusions
Active use of hybrid ways of conducting wars demands the special organisation of defence of the state, process of acceptance of strategic decisions and accurate geopolitical tselepolaganija. First of all, a distinctive feature of new generation of wars is their conducting in uncertainty space: at decision-making military - political command and an estimation of possible counteraction . Thereupon it would be desirable to offer creation of the mechanism risk - the orientated situation analysis with participation of groups of military experts in research of operations and change of the scheme of interaction of the Minister of Defence of Russia with other bodies state
Situation analysis is well enough described by our experts - foreign affairs specialists , it is necessary to improve its formalized systems of the analysis of the data with application of possibilities NTSUO the Russian Federation. Its realisation on a constant and continuous basis for the prevention of threats to security will be distinctive feature of the given analysis with a view of military management. We will allocate analysis stages :
Realisation of round-the-clock monitoring of world conditions with use of information technology on two blocks: military - political, financially - economic;
Allocation of potentially dangerous ("strange") situations from the general file on the basis of the developed criteria and schemes - typologies on each block separately ;
The analysis of dangerous situations in a complex and their differentiation on risk groups (risk - the orientated approach), an establishment for groups of risk of modes of constant control with increase in its periodicity in process of risk growth; in case of the termination (intensity recession) situations there is a reduction of periodicity of its tracing to gradual transfer in a mode harmless/irrelevant;
Selection of situations of limiting danger, the immediate report to chief NTSUO the Russian Federation with the subsequent reports to the chief of the Joint Staff and the Minister of Defence in process of a deterioration in the situation;
Decision-making by the Supreme commander in chief on measures of reaction after the report of the Minister of Defence;
Carrying out of complex operation of advancing influence on a crisis situation.
Important elements of the given process are the choice of the most suitable strategy and interaction process. At decision-making each subject should start with the presented quantitative characteristics of a situation which probably to describe in a matrix kind within the limits of target calculated models. Rather valuable use of toolkit of the theory of games which was historically formed for an estimation of economic behaviour here is represented, and today is actively used in the international relations. Already at 3-4 stages of complex situation analysis should occur and selection of optimum strategy on the basis of criteria of Laplasa, Valda, Gurvits and Sevidzha depending on our geopolitical purposes. It is necessary to organise such system of interaction NTSUO the Russian Federation and other bodies to provide uninterrupted reception of the financial, political, economic and statistical information for realisation of the high-grade analysis with a view of state defence. Some specification of problems of Central administrative board of the Joint Staff on maintenance with the prospecting information is required also. Only harmonious work of all state structures can provide a condition of hardening of interests of the person, a society and the state. Working out and an embodiment of new approaches to safety of the state, the international stability demands, besides the decision military - strategic and oranizatsionnyh questions, accurate geopolitical tselepolaganija. In the theoretical plan definition tsivilizatsionnoj is necessary for a role of Russia, a choice of the corresponding geopolitical concept. Practically we should place correctly accents between our military power and economic, ideological ways of influence.
Only so, resolutely having resolved today's contradictions, we can provide world progress. Having created fair international system, we can provide uniform redistribution of the blessings for needs of a science and technics, culture and art, development of the lagging behind countries. Using whole world resources, we will manage to make outstanding opening in space, to construct new innovative observatories in Chile, to master riches of Arctic regions and oil deposits in America, to overcome a hunger problem in Africa and to defend virgin forests of Amazonia from disappearance. Using mechanisms of wars of new generation, we thereby battle not to other people, and with harm and injustice displays, we provide the worthy future to our descendants and we develop ourselves. It is paradoxical, but we can force to destroy war all its negative moments, having left only «tsivilizatorskuju a sword role» for the good of world peace.
It is thought, today we can observe formation of new international system, a geopolitical paradigm - an era of the Euroasian stability. Last acts of terrorism in Paris, outrages IGIL in Syria, unsettled palestino - the Israeli conflict, ruin in Ukraine - all it and many other things as well as possible confirm that «the Western world decline» about which already mentioned Spengler wrote. Today's actualisation of problems of wars of new generation is generated by increasing opposition between becoming obsolete, obsolete English - the Saxon world and «light from the East». It is possible even to tell, speaking language of Alfreda Mehena that this antagonism between a sea civilisation and continental. Not without reason the USA so furiously defend navigation freedom (Freedom of Navigation), causing indignation of the Peoples Republic of China in connection with last incident in Southern - the Chinese sea. Obviously and another: If earlier Russia and all other east world "concentrated", now we openly declare our intention to put an end unfair miroustrojstvu and to provide safety at our borders. The existing order any more does not bring to us any advantage. And, as it is known, «any tree which is not bringing a fruit kind, cut down and throw in fire» (Mf. 7:19). Has passed that time when our "allies" had possibility to enjoy falling there is no time great state and individually to establish a rule of the international dialogue, now all of us observe their "dizziness".
We could «rise from ashes», reorient our economy, revive armed forces, change ourselves and direct forward, now time of the USA and the Western Europe to comprehend the crisis which includes not only economic problems, but also spiritually - moral degradation, a migratory question. Strengthening of an axis of safety and stability Moscow - Beijing which includes our friends from India, Brazil, the republic of South Africa, and also, the reviving Iran and the checked up companions from the South America and the North Africa should become our purpose. There can not be doubts, as the Western Europe in due course, having understood itself, will join our union. Probably, originally from especially pragmatic interests about which V.V.Putin at the Valdai forum spoke, but without feeling sorabotnichestva, mutual aid and solidarity she will be compelled to leave us, but already for ever. It would be desirable to trust, as the USA, remained without "feed" by new conflicts, so important for their economy, all - taki recognise necessity of really peace interaction, at least for the sake of own blessing not to remain in deep isolation. Eventually, there will be a formation of new international system, economic and political, the epoch of super-powers will leave in a non-existence, having opened road to "a world society» about which now actively speaks Barry to Buzan, and to it wrote the Edging and outstanding Russian philosophers, Confucians and Buddhists. Then there will be a reconsideration of the anarchical nature of the international community, its comprehension not as chaotic, and as deprived of several dominating actors. All-round development of ways of dialogue between the states and societies, civilisations and cultures which, unlike past wars, will not be accompanied by enormous victims and ruin becomes result of wars of new generation. Modern receptions and in the ways of an antagonism which are in effect display of "soft force», we will push the separate states to self-improvement.
The given analysis is directed on realisation of preventive function  at maintenance of national defence and assumes intervention possibility in a course of the situation menacing to interests of the world and safety of mankind, Russia. Carrying out of such operation is a unit of wars of new generation and should include three elements: information, financially - economic, direct influence. Namely, the complex of ways of information war, and in case of their failure - financially - economic influence at first comes true. If the given elements cannot break negative development of a situation application of complex hybrid ways of influence with use of the high-precision weapon is supposed. Then the estimation of results of operation and acceptance of the further decision on its course is made.
The list of references
A Measured Approach to Ending Poverty and Boosting Shared Prosperity: Concepts, Data, and the Twin Goals, The World Bank, 2015.
Mattis, James. «A New American Grand Strategy», Defining Ideas, February 26, 2015.
McChrystal, Stanley. Team of Teams: New Rules of Engagement for a Complex World, 2015.
Pedro Olinto, Kathleen Beegle, Carlos Sobrado, and Hiroki Uematsu, The State of the Poor: Where Are the Poor, Where Is Extreme Poverty Harder to End, and What Is the Current Profile of the World’s Poor? The World Bank, Economic Premise, October 2013 (Number 125).
Podings K., Stinissen J., Maybaum M. 2013 5th International Conference on Cyber Conflict: Proceedings. NATO CCD COE Publications, 2013.
Rose, Gideon. «Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy», World Politics, 51 (October 1998).
Staying the Course, World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2015.
Arzumanjan R.V.Strategija irreguljarnoj wars: the theory and application practice. Theoretical and strategic problems kontseptualizatsii, religious and military - political relations in an operational environment irreguljarnyh military operations / Under obshch. red. A. B.Mihajlovsky. - M: ANO TSSOiP, 2015.
Gordienko D.V. Military - an economic antagonism in the modern world. The analytical report. M: ANO TSSOiP, 2011.
History laws: Mathematical modelling and forecasting of world and regional development / Otv. red. A. V.Korotayev, Ju. V.Zinkina. Izd. A stereotype. - M: Publishing house LKI, 2014.
Isserson G. S. Evolution of operative art. M: the State military publishing house of the Narcofloor-mat of defence of USSR, 1937.
Kapitanets I.M. Sea war. Actual problems of development military - a sea science. - M: Vagrius, 2001.
Krupchenko I. E. Military history. The textbook for military colleges. Under the editorship of I.H.Bagramjana. M, Voenizdat, 1971.
Morz F. M, Kimbell of J. E.Metody of research of operations. M: Publishing house the Soviet radio, 1956.
Primakov E. M, Khrustalyov M. A. Situation analyses. A carrying out technique. Sketches of a current policy. Release 1. M: scientifically - an educational forum under the international relations, MGIMO the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, 2006.
Rastorguev S.P. Mathematical models in an information antagonism (the existential mathematics). - M: ANO TSSOiP, 2014.
Snesarev A. E. Strategy grimaces / the Afghani lessons: Conclusions for the future in the light of A.E.Snesareva's ideological heritage. - M: Military university, Russian way, 2003.
Snesarev A. E. War philosophy. M: fin. Control, 2003.
Toynbee A.Dzh. History research: Civilizations in time and space. M: nuclear heating plant, 2009.
Fromm E.Begstvo from freedom. M: the Academic Prospectus, 2008.
Spengler O.Zakat of the Western world; Sketches of morphology of world history. M: «Publishing house the ALPHA - the BOOK», 2014.
 Snesarev A. E. War philosophy. M: fin. Control, 2003. With. 30.
 Military doctrines of the Russian Federation, «the Russian newspaper», on December, 30th 2014.
 Fromm E.Begstvo from freedom. M: the Academic Prospectus, 2008. With. 47.
 Term of one of classics of neo-realism of Gideona Rose (Gideon Rose): Rose, Gideon. «Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy», World Politics, 51 (October 1998), pp. 144 - 172.
 item 9 of the Military doctrine of the Russian Federation See.
 Pedro Olinto, Kathleen Beegle, Carlos Sobrado, and Hiroki Uematsu, The State of the Poor: Where Are the Poor, Where Is Extreme Poverty Harder to End, and What Is the Current Profile of the World’s Poor? The World Bank, Economic Premise, October 2013 (Number 125); A Measured Approach to Ending Poverty and Boosting Shared Prosperity: Concepts, Data, and the Twin Goals, The World Bank, 2015; Staying the Course, World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2015.
 Staying the Course, World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2015. P. XVII - XX.
 See more in detail: history Laws: Mathematical modelling and forecasting of world and regional development / Otv. red. A. V.Korotayev, Ju. V.Zinkina. Izd. A stereotype. - M: Publishing house LKI, 2014. With. 60 - 84.
 Snesarev A. E. Strategy grimaces / the Afghani lessons: Conclusions for the future in the light of A.E.Snesareva's ideological heritage. - M: Military university, Russian way, 2003. With. 293 - 301.
 Krupchenko I. E. Military history. The textbook for military colleges. Under the editorship of I.H.Bagramjana. M, Voenizdat, 1971. With. 5.
 As wrote A.E.Snesarev to «war Philosophies».
 «Nisproverzhyonnyh to spare and pacify pride» - words of Anhiza from Vergil's "Eneidy" (VI, 853), expressing the formula of behaviour of Romans in relation to won.
 See: Spengler O.Zakat of the Western world; Sketches of morphology of world history. M: «Publishing house the ALPHA - the BOOK», 2014. With. 132.
 See: Toynbee A.Dzh. History research: Civilizations in time and space. M: nuclear heating plant, 2009. With. 531 - 537.
 Isserson G. S. Evolution of operative art. M: the State military publishing house of the Narcofloor-mat of defence of USSR, 1937. With. 9.
 Morz F. M, Kimbell of J. E.Metody of research of operations. M: Publishing house the Soviet radio, 1956. With. 148 - 172.
 In the same place, With. 148.
 This point in question is in details enough developed by R.V.Arzumanjanom. See: Arzumanjan R.V.Strategija irreguljarnoj wars: the theory and application practice. Theoretical and strategic problems kontseptualizatsii, religious and military - political relations in an operational environment irreguljarnyh military operations / Under obshch. red. A. B.Mihajlovsky. - M: ANO TSSOiP, 2015.
 In the same place, With. 277.
 Kapitanets I.M. Sea war. Actual problems of development military - a sea science. - M: Vagrius, 2001. - Gl.I.
 Rastorguev S.P. Mathematical models in an information antagonism (the existential mathematics). - M: ANO TSSOiP, 2014. With. 20 - 25.
 Gordienko D.V. Military - an economic antagonism in the modern world. The analytical report. M: ANO TSSOiP, 2011.
 See: Mattis, James. «A New American Grand Strategy», Defining Ideas, February 26, 2015; McChrystal, Stanley. Team of Teams: New Rules of Engagement for a Complex World, 2015.
 Indicative in this plan is carrying out in 2013 of the Fifth international conference on cyberconflicts under the aegis of so-called "cybercommand" of the NATO (CCD COE) by which results even the collection of works (Podings K has been published., Stinissen J., Maybaum M. 2013 5th International Conference on Cyber Conflict: Proceedings. NATO CCD COE Publications, 2013).
 Problem of an estimation of counter-measures already mentioned Morz and Kimbell (investigated Morz F. M, Kimbell of J. E.Metody of research of operations. M: Publishing house the Soviet radio, 1956. With. 141, 218).
 See: Primakov E. M, Khrustalyov M. A. Situation analyses. A carrying out technique. Sketches of a current policy. Release 1. M: scientifically - an educational forum under the international relations, MGIMO the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, 2006.
 Unfortunately, within the limits of competitive work it is not obviously possible to describe in detail each of stages of complex situation analysis, we will stop only on their short characteristic.
 At the given stage probably use of experience of Rosfinmonitoringa at detection of the transactions directed on legalisation (washing up) of criminal incomes. The given service develops corresponding criteria of "strange" transactions, the Center of an estimation of risks is created. Also, TSEMI the Russian Academy of Sciences has begun working out of Target calculated model of the general financial balance (Target Computable General Equilibrium Financial Model). Creation of such models for NTSUO the Russian Federation with a view of maintenance of a complex estimation is possible.
 A.E.Snesarev in the works especially underlined a prediction role in military science. The preventive function, advancing influence are components of such prediction and promote an elimination of the danger, the conflict before transition in an active phase.
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