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Separate strategic characteristics of hybrid threats
Material posted: Publication date: 11-02-2016
Recently, despite the lack of large-scale world wars, we can observe their evolution, change of character and forms of manifestation: socially – political and strategic characteristics. In this regard the phenomenon of hybrid threats about which it is quite a lot told both in domestic, and in foreign military thought is represented very actual. Moreover, hybrid ways of war more and more get into separate regulations of NATO, defining this phenomenon as part of the military doctrine of the block.

In the Declaration of 2014 following the results of the summit of NATO member states in the Wales (NATO Wales Summit Declaration) hybrid methods of an antagonism are determined as «wide enough number of the obvious and latent military men, the semimilitary and civil measures applied in a uniform complex plan». It is obvious that the made determination is rather approximate and more likely puts before us set of questions, than gives answers to them. Though the subsequent analysis of separate documents of the block, statements of its management within the limits of a meeting of Ministers for Foreign Affairs of the countries of the NATO in December, 2015 allows to allocate some trends in the renewed strategy of the NATO concerning hybrid threats. In particular, interesting the thesis about a simultaneous combination of conventional and not conventional means of an antagonism as characteristics of hybrid threat [1] . Really, if to consider a phenomenon of a hybrid antagonism in a historical context, perhaps, it is possible to agree with such approach with reference to conflicts of the last century. Separate elements of similar influence how F.Hofman [2], were shown during the Irish revolts 1919-1920 - h, actions of Mojaheds in Afghanistan, the summer company of Israel against Hezbollah in 2006 the call of not state actors to the western style of conducting wars »Is marked specified«. At the same time, development of hybrid methods of an antagonism sees in two aspects. In - the first, use of the given mechanisms will occur under the state control as basic subject of a world order. In - the second, conventional means will reduce the share in a general kit of hybrid methods. It is remarkable that the western military doctrine on - former is guided by strengthening of military presence, fulfils movings of great strengths on a long distance. It is thought, in it consists some kind of "idol" of a military world view of the block of the NATO who consists in necessity of constant show of force through its corporality and tangibility. However, the similar phenomena are well enough described with reference to phenomena of the power and M.Fuko's violence in "to Supervise and punish".

Actual task of the state military building and defence in the given context is all-round development of "soft force» (or «the flexible power», soft power) which in military area finds reflexion in hybrid methods of an antagonism. Rather important use of mathematical and economic toolkit with reference to military and geostrategic planning is represented. As truly marked V.I.Slipchenko in «wars of the sixth generation», the victory in forthcoming conflicts will consist in deprivation of the opponent of economy. Special value in the present conditions is acquired by so-called "currency wars" which occur in stock market, to application of measures of restriction of interbank payments. All it becomes possible thanks to absence though any is international - legal adjustment of hybrid methods of an antagonism. Thus the military and analytical centres of the NATO (for example, CCD COE) regularly issue collections of recommendations about the most problem questions which actually become the guide to action. It is obvious that in the presence of political will even hybrid threats can be entered in legal space.

Undoubtedly, it is necessary to search for the reason of occurrence of new threats in the economic basis, a changing method of production, structural changes of world economy. Hybrid methods of an antagonism, possibly, constitute a transitive stage to following generation of wars. It is rather difficult to tell that hybrid threats in itself are capable to generate separate generation. On - former uncertain there is a concept of the given phenomenon and expansion of mechanisms of an antagonism on stages. Anyway, adequate reaction to new calls sees in an anticipation, advancing reflexion of new threats and in their immediate legal adjustment. Has passed that time when the international relations reflexed after the approach of "brilliant isolation» Great Britain, calling to react only to actually occurred events. Such policy has in many respects made possible has begun world wars. In the latest work «the World order» Kissindzher has quite right noted:« If it is not possible to provide an order with the consent or to impose force, it will be shaped by catastrophic crash, chaos - and by uncountable victims ». Danger of hybrid methods of an antagonism is their structural uncertainty. Namely, the world or war can be the decision of any conflict. Hybrid mechanisms as if coil between them, forming chaos space. As during Thirty-year war any state could not gain a resolute victory from - that all of them were approximately at one level of development, and now active use of a hybrid antagonism can quite lead to catastrophic consequences. A unique exit from such situation is legal determination of threats, the fresh wording of the phenomenon of war taking into account its overflowing in a hybrid channel. Finally, only on us depends, there are today's new methods of an antagonism the chaos, capable to impulse to world crash, or by a peace resolution of disputes they will pass in consent space.

Sergey Zarochintsev

 

[1] NATO countering the hybrid threat, NATO Act, 23 September 2011

[2]  Frank G. Hoffman, Conflict in the XXI Century: The Rise of Hybrid Warfare


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