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Shoigu change war plans
Material posted: Publication date: 10-05-2015
Ministry of Defence starts early development strategic documents. Russia's Defense Ministry will soon develop and approve a new "Plan of National Defense on the 2016-2020 years." This was January 13 at the first in the new year a conference call said the head of the Russian Defense Ministry Sergey Shoigu. According to him, the strategic plan for the upcoming "five years" is needed in order to ensure the timely deployment and strict fulfillment of the state defense order, and get off at the set parameters for modern weapons and military equipment.

It is worth noting that the current defense plan was adopted not long ago. January 29, 2013 at a meeting with the Commander in Chief Vladimir Putin, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and head of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov presented the document, the work of "49 ministries and departments." Then Shoigu said that the Plan worked out all the important details that relate to the Russian Defense for the period of the next decade, taking into account all possible risks.

- Carry out, in our opinion, a fairly complete analysis of what we can expect in the coming decades. That is why we believe that it is ready for approval. Naturally, I would like to add at the same time, it is not a final, not a frozen form. And in connection with various events around the country, with different threats, he, of course, can be adjusted and will be adjusted, of course, - then the minister noted.

Shoigu then emphasized that for Russia in a number of areas designated serious dangers in the form of local "hot spots". And Valery Gerasimov and did acknowledged that "the possibility of a major war today is very high," and the greatest danger to Russia are just pockets of instability "along the borders of our country."

There are some questions: what explains such an urgent need to develop a new plan of defense of Russia, if the previous document was adopted only two years ago? Is it only the entry of the Crimea into Russia and the civil war in the Donbass? But then it would be possible to adjust the document, rather than developing a new one. And if the 2013 plan took into account all possible threats, how our analysts do not predict the development of the crisis in Ukraine?

New defense plan is necessary for the simple reason that in the Russian Crimea back, and near our borders, there is a new "hot spot" - Donbass, says military expert Victor Myasnikov.

- Of course, these factors should immediately change plans the Ministry of Defense. In Crimea, a new grouping of troops available, it was included in a single system of air defense. Of course, all this requires reflection in the relevant documents of the General Staff.

In addition, we are now actively strengthen the northern frontiers. Create a unified strategic command in the Arctic zone. Do not forget that the last two years has been actively pursued large-scale exercises. Why are only the exercises "Vostok-2014", which involved more than 155 thousand soldiers with the assistance of various security and civilian structures. Naturally, in the course of such exercises identified any shortcomings and points that must also be taken into account in the strategic plan and the alignment of forces in the theater of military operations (TVD).

That is, now there is a perfectly normal adjustment plans. In other countries there is the same. In the US, all the military reform takes place continuously - with constant updates in military doctrine and adjustment plans of military construction. For example, the situation in Ukraine, the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan, the conduct of the war against "Islamic state" in the Middle East - all of this requires amendments to the documents of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

- In 2013, Sergei Shoigu, representing the former defense plan Vladimir Putin noted that this is not a final, not a rigid form and "in connection with various events around the country, with different threats to it, of course, can be adjusted and will be adjusted." But now it is not about the adjustment, and a completely new Plan. The situation suddenly changed so much that it is necessary to rewrite the document?

- It is necessary to rewrite at least for the reason that we have severed all relations with NATO. Alliance appeared as a potential enemy. Naturally, this entails huge changes in our plans.

- But the Alliance has always been our potential adversary ...

- Yes. But those areas once considered relatively safe, is now clearly dangerous. So there need not simply an adjustment, but it is necessary to re-establish the country's defense plan.

- In your opinion, how the threat of a collision of the Russian Federation and NATO is real? Yes, NATO is stepping up infrastructure in the Baltic countries, Poland, Romania, open new military bases there. But we also see that the Americans at the same time close 15 of its military bases in Europe. Although they are already in the continent relatively small contingent - Army Aviation Brigade and the Airborne Brigade ...

- Reduce the base in Europe is forcing Americans to save - they, too, not everything went smoothly with the budget. Therefore, they are small and not so they need bases in Europe liquidated. On the other hand, States will redeploy from Afghanistan to Europe quite a large amount of military equipment. While we are talking about 150 armored combat vehicles. But I think, in fact, they will be much more.

That is, on the one hand, they reduce the number of databases, on the other - are building up the infrastructure near the borders of Russia. These items are intended for combat support operational deployment of the armed forces in case of military conflict with Russia. For this purpose, European stocks advance created arms, staff structure, various schemes of logistics, supplies, fuel supplies, ammunition, supplies, canned medical units etc. Of course, Russia is forced to respond to it.

The main task of the previous plan was to mark a major role in the defense of the General Staff of the country, to transform it from a body that decides on operational and strategic planning and the use of the army and navy, in the coordinating body of all the Armed Forces, says the director of the Center for Strategic Market Ivan Konovalov.

- In addition to the defense of the country are involved not only military structure, but also civilians. Then it was important to establish a clear hierarchy and understanding of defense looks like, and who will be responsible for it.

Yes, and then paid serious attention to the challenges and threats, said that the greatest threat to Russia are hotbeds of instability along the borders of our country. But today the situation has changed dramatically. For example, if before heading west was covered quite weak because Europe has not planned any serious incidents, over time the development of missile defense and increasing the number of exercises and training of NATO to the borders with Russia have dramatically changed the military and political situation. And now attention is paid to this area, but not the south and east.

Personally, I do not see anything wrong with that plan of defense and military doctrine, the previous version of which also lasted only four years (it was adopted on 5 February 2010, a new version approved by the President of the Russian Federation December 26, 2014 - "joint venture"), before the scheduled change period. Today, nothing can be planned for decades, because things are moving rapidly. 50 years ago for such a radical change in the world situation, which occurred in the last year, it would take several decades or even more.

However, the deputy director of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis Alexander Khramchikhin notes that the defense plan, presented in 2013, the "shake down" the representatives of 49 different agencies and ministries are subordinate, and, according to our military leaders, the entire document took into account all the important details of Defense country for the next decade.

- It is obvious that if it was not possible to predict and calculate the threat that, in principle, lay on the surface. And the situation with Crimea and Donbas - a clear confirmation. All this proves once again that the Russian leadership is not and has never been a strategy in any area. The trouble is that we have completely neglected the views of science. At best, it demands the scientists who wrote that nice management. And if there is a strategy, it is very difficult to predict anything, because it is not very clear from the start that.

Previous defense plan, few people read, because the text of the document is classified as "top secret". But I do not rule out that it will be overwritten every one to two years, and all for the same reason. Again, all that we have done in Ukraine, in the Crimea and in the Donets Basin - it is just a situational response to the evolving situation in addition to us. And in December approved a new military doctrine - which, unfortunately, is also responding to the evolving situation. Hence, the attempt to "drive" to all possible threats, as they are seen at the moment.


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