Oil fable, in which more than 50 years live in Russia, exchanging "black gold" on currency, technology and consumer lifestyle, at an alarming rate close to the finale, warns Finanz.
As suggested by the Director of the Economic policy program of the Carnegie Moscow Center Andrei Movchan, the Russian economy is the beginning of a countdown to collapse.
At the moment, almost all the oil reserves already included in the production, reported earlier at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Minister of natural resources Sergey Donskoy. According to him, the undistributed Fund of subsoil for oil is only 6%.
The Minister has indicated that this is so small that you have to change the format of the work of the Ministry instead of the distribution of subsurface remains is to monitor "the effectiveness of subsoil use".
In 2017 in Russia will not be announced any auction for the right to use a large hydrocarbon portions. "There is nothing left. Fond of open fields exhausted", — explained the situation the head of the Committee Yevgeny Kiselyov.
"The average size of discovered fields for the last 2 years — 1.7 million tons", — States, for their part, partner RusEnergy Michael Krutikhin. It is the crumbs: in China alone Russia delivers 3.5 times more on a monthly basis.
Investments in prospecting and exploration was radically curtailed after the collapse of oil prices, the expert explains: "it Changed the paradigm. (Decided) just to drive everything that can be sold now at a price that is. To pump from existing fields is all that can be not paying attention to the optimal scheme".
According to the "strategy of development of mineral raw material base of the Russian Federation until 2030", which was prepared by Rosnedra, Russia has a maximum of 3-4 years of production at current levels. However, the problem is that 70% of the reserves are tight oil, its cost 70 dollars on land up to 150 dollars per barrel in the Arctic, besides the necessary technology, access to which is blocked by the sanctions of the West, reminds Krutikhin.
According to him, the peak of production is 2020-22 years. Then the decline begins at a speed of up to 10% per year, and by 2035, the volumes will collapse in half from 11 to 6 million barrels a day. In this volume, the oil consumes Russia itself, and that means exports will have to reset.
According to Movchan, citing data of the Central Bank, selling oil gives 26% of the total coming into the country currency; in General, oil and gas exports — 60%. The Federal budget provided by oil at 40% directly, but when you consider all indirect effects (for example, the import of goods for oil money), that is 84.3%.
Very likely, the expert assumes that to close the "hole" the government will enable the full power of the printing press. At the same time have to close transgranichnoe the movement of capital to restrict foreign exchange operations and introduce price controls.
"As it happens, we can see the example of Venezuela, which lost nearly two-thirds of the possible production for ten years and already buys oil abroad," warns the man.
In his view, the resilience in the economy — 6-10 years, then "the question will be about the urgent need for drastic changes to preserve the integrity and governability of the country".
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