Recall that the situation in forcibly detached Kosovo from Serbia recently flared up again. In particular, on 26 March in Kosovska Mitrovica was captured by Albanian militants, the Director of the Office for Kosovo and Metohija, government of Serbia Marko Djuric. The kidnapping of Serbian officials occurred at the inactivity of the international mission EULEX that is responsible for the cooperation with the "police" of the separatist Kosovo.
According to experts, if you look at the problem from a purely military point of view, while taking into account the situation of 1998, the situation does not look for the Serbian side favorable. In 1998 in Kosovo was in Pristina army corps of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, which was composed of two motorized and two mechanized brigades, he recalled. Also, Kosovo has placed two squadrons of MiG-21, one special forces (the so-called red berets), special squads of police. Total number of the army of the FRY and Serbian police in the region consisted of 20 or 30 thousand people, said the Valetsky.
"However, according to Serbian data, if you take the book "the Terrorism of Albanian extremists in Kosovo" colonels Mihalkovskogo and Damianova, in the summer of 1998, Albanians were in control of forty percent of the territory of Kosovo. Therefore, they in no event cannot be underestimated," — said the Russian expert.
At the same time, according to official data, the so-called Kosovo Liberation army had in its composition of about 20-25 thousand people, armed mainly with light weapons and distributed in up to half a dozen different brigades, the expert continued.
"As for the current situation, the situation is as follows: Albanians, using existing power — this is basically the Kosovo security Force is able to capture the North of Kosovo, which currently has no organised Serb military groups. However, they will be wary to act because it would be a direct violation of all existing treaties, and Serbia would have a reason to enter the army and security forces," — said Oleg Valetsky.
The expert drew attention to the fact that Serbia itself, given the current composition of the Armed forces, in terms of the size and equipment of military equipment does not exceed the same, the Pristina corps of the sample in 1998 and imparted force.
"If then, the Pristina corps had a big problem with Albanian partisans, what will happen now if the whole number of the army of Serbia has about 25 thousand people, and it is composed of only one brigade of special purpose, and if not mistaken, four of the operational team. In principle, the date for the operation in Kosovo, the army of Serbia without a Declaration of mobilization to attract more than 10 thousand people, plus maybe five thousand police officers. This is clearly insufficient for full-scale war," suggested the Valetsky.
According to experts, even non-military specialist when you look at the map of Kosovo may be noted that if Serbia today will introduce troops to the region, they immediately fall into a narrow throat, which passes through the mountainous areas around Kosovska Mitrovica. When attempting to further advance these troops get bogged down in urban combat in South Mitrovica, says the Valetsky.
"The Albanians, contrary to popular opinion in Belgrade, escape will not. It is known to all Serbian war veterans, who fought in Kosovo in 1998-1999. Any armed offensive of the army of Serbia can lead to serious consequences. In addition, the Serbian army, Belgrade according to the signed agreements, will not be able to enter the territory of Kosovo from the municipalities of Presevo, Bujanovac, Medvedja, as there is a so-called Kumanovski a contract concluded after the withdrawal of Serbian security forces from Kosovo. Serbia has no right to enter the army. If it does, then violate another international agreement," — said the expert.
Besides, added the Valetsky, the Albanians, in addition to its own "security forces", have a significant number of weapons on hand. "They already showed in 2000-2001 that their illegal units to enter the war on foreign soil. They waged war in southern Serbia (Presevo, Bujanovac), and then in Macedonia. Despite the fact that on the territory of Kosovo was KFOR (about 50 thousand soldiers from different countries), the Albanian armed forces were able to conduct two separate conflict. In these conditions the unwinding of this plot may lead to a major war in which the Serbs of Northern Kosovo will be in the midst of hostilities", — summed up Oleg Valetsky.
As reported by the Colossal, the Minister of foreign Affairs of Serbia Ivica dačić previously said that Belgrade remains committed to dialogue with the Albanian side, he does not intend to conduct military operations and to arrange provocations, but will protect their interests. Dacic said that it is not necessary to discuss in the media the possibility of military conflict, adding that the statement about the fundamental rejection of this option would be tantamount to calling the separatists "quiet attack".
Tags: assessment , Balkans , Yugoslavia
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