The next presidential election in Serbia scheduled for 2 April this year. The election campaign was very short - a month.
However, this does not apply to the current Prime Minister of Serbia Alexander Vucic, which indirectly leads his "campaign" for months.
Despite the fact that public opinion was convinced that Tomislav Nikolic will go to a second term as Vucic has stated repeatedly that his alleged are not interested in the presidency, the facts, however, spoke otherwise.
Tomislav Nikolic, from the beginning of his career in the Progressive Party took the path of least resistance, which led to the fact that Aleksandar vučić took the party under his control. On the other hand, have long survived indirectly through the tabloids led a campaign against Nikolic and his wife, accusing them of corruption, nepotism, enrichment, violation of the laws, and the like. Because of all this authority Nikolic has dropped very low and his political force was extremely weak, and this trend has only increased.
Given the fact that the victory of Nikolic was likely the only real candidate for a guaranteed victory was survived.
When Nikolic realized that it will not be from the party of no support, i.e. second from the party, he will not go, then the President gave a few ambiguous statements in the media, but in the end, it all ended with that he withdrew his candidacy and endorsed Vucic. In the Serbian media and the Serbian public opinion has spread that as "compensation" the outgoing President asked the Ambassador in Moscow and a solid compensation. Tomislav Nikolic in the Serbian public opinion is known as a weak politician, always ready to retreat for the sake of their own interests.
Vucic has earned support not only of the Serbian Progressive Party, but also most other parties in the coalition, of which the most significant is the socialist party of Serbia.
In fact, the coming elections will change nothing, except that they will be the last "great" victory for the Serbian Progressive Party and Aleksandar Vučić. It is difficult to say whether there are choices.
The Serbian political scene, it operates under the excessive influence of the West, and another aggravating circumstance is the fact that credibility is spent, and there is not one party which itself is not compromised.
Then what is the reason for the success of Vucic?
The great success of Alexander Vucic that he took advantage of all the weaknesses of politicians. In a very short time he was able to take control of almost all Patriotic scene: as the parties that were in opposition, for example, Radicals, and a number of marginal parties / movements such as Zavetnyi, 1389, DSS, the Third Serbia, the national liberation movement of ours, etc.
At the same time survived through the skillful use of different kinds of pressure made a big impact on parties involved in the coalition (SPS, HC, SNP, etc.), as openly says his former coalition partner, Velimir ilić.
Let's systematize candidates.
Of the 11 confirmed candidates for the Presidency of Serbia, 4 candidate, is a systemic opposition (Vojislav šešelj, Nenad Chanak, Alexander Popovic and Miroslav Parovic), which, in fact, are the candidates.
The opposition was not able to consolidate and offer fewer candidates. The other five opposition candidates (except one, the purpose of which is simply wyszukiwanie political system) can be divided into those who seek to European integration (Sasa janković, Vuk Jeremic, Sasa Radulovic), and those who value real sovereignty (Bosko Obradovic, Milan Stamatovic).
According to many studies, it is assumed that Sasha Jankovic has the best chance to position himself as the candidate of the Pro-Western opposition.
As for the candidates who advocate a policy of protecting state and national interests, in this group ahead of Bosko Obradovic. He has a party that was never part of the ruling coalition. Given that such a policy is, to put it mildly, not in favor of the West, candidates are really intending to implement their words, in fact, little chance.
A peculiar phenomenon of these elections was the candidate of Luka Maksimovic, which is due to the sensibly-thought-out marketing campaign gained popularity among disenchanted and undecided voters, and young people. Its popularity is based on the performance witty and humorous lusungu that ridicules current political system and politicians.
And his participation in the campaign can lead to the activation of the electorate, which ultimately will lead to increased turnout to the polls...
Yes. This is an example of competent work of political strategists.
But jokes jokes, and after all the Patriotic rhetoric so far in Serbia is a strong trump card...
The Patriotic idea in Serbia is compromised, but, obviously, the potential has not been exhausted. Which is why it bet as the candidates of government and opposition candidates. The government uses campaign rhetoric due to the fact that election promises are not fulfilled, moreover, in many segments carried something diametrically opposed to the promise. But to say something people need something. So the candidate of the government Aleksandar Vucic is Weber's criticism of the laziness of their own people, again returned to the subject of Kosovo and Metohija, "brotherly Russia" and "strong Serbia".
What are the main claims of the people to the party in power?
Most claim it's policy on Kosovo and Metohija; the neglect of the problems of Serbs living in republics of former Yugoslavia; nepotism in the party; corruption; the criminalization of society; censorship; subordinate attitude to Brussels and Washington administration.
On the other hand, most of the national elite, which advocates for the protection of public and national interests, demonstrates the willingness to make small concessions, in fact, selling your political credibility "for a mess of pottage".
The best example is DSS. The once - during Kostunica's Democratic Strunk (party) of Serbia was considered one of the largest, and now with the success of DSS is the attainment of its candidate 1% of the vote.
By what criterion can distinguish the "opposition", performing some technical function, from this opposition?
A clear boundary between "opposition" candidates from the government and the real opposition is demonstrated through the attitudes of the media. Ie, it's not even in the argument of criticism, and in a tone which afford soldiers the media attitude to the current policy.
It must be borne in mind that "opposition" candidates from the government do not propose changes to the current policy.
For example, the candidate Vuk jeremić also adheres to the European integration policy, military neutrality, preservation of Kosovo and Metohija within Serbia, foreign investors, and cooperation with the West and the East. However, in the current political activity (and current government) showed that deeds with words.
As the candidate of the power, he has shown willingness to change their political views due to career development, to the point that it is ready to position itself in the public eye as the "Russian candidate". Although, of course, there is no reason.
What to expect from the upcoming elections?
As for the elections, it is necessary to remind that five years ago the victory of Nikolic in the second round of presidential elections led to a change in power - Ivica Dacic after the defeat of the leader of the Democratic Party left the coalition with this party and entered a coalition with the Serbian Progressive Party. I think that now the chance will not likely candidate from the ruling coalition will take place in the first round. (Less than a second. However, this will depend on Western cinema action).
Victory in the upcoming elections, Aleksandar Vucic from the chair of the Prime Minister will sit in the presidential. What it will have political consequences, given the parliamentary form of government in Serbia?
In the political sense, given the fact that Serbia's political power concentrated in the hands of the Prime Minister, and the President has no special powers, this transition will appear as a loss of political power. However, probably, Vucic will have ulichnie to power through their shots, and with the future Prime Minister to have the consent on this question. Given the fact that Aleksandar vučić has gained the support of the SPS, Ivica Dacic abandoned his candidacy in favor of Vucic, really suggest that Dacic expects to get the function of Prime Minister.
After the presidential election - on the basis of the performed results start forming new opposition organizations. What problems can occur?
The big problem is the fact that the current government has managed to destroy the existing parties and supramaterial a large part of the opposition. Meanwhile, on the other hand, Vucic acted as a litmus test, identifying feasible that represent how political structures and individual policies.
The political scene of Serbia is waiting for an update which involves the care of the old - compromised parties, and the creation of new structures that is less dependent on foreign factors.
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