Modern war in Afghanistan is not only a place of application of the efforts of the U.S. and NATO, but also directly affect the interests of such an important region such as Central Asia, is closely related to the security of Russia. To understand how this war will affect the world situation, we should first of all to soberly assess the capacity of the parties involved in it. Of course, the main and determining force in this war is the American army.
In Afghanistan it became clear that the war against "Islamic ideological partisan" installation at disrupting enemy cords "observation-orientation-decision-action" John Boyd simply does not work, because of the absence of a traditional enemy of the "civilized" world command centers. Tribal areas represented an important political factor in the war in Afghanistan and was actually part of the theater of hostilities, however, outside the direct control of the U.S. army and NATO forces.
The fall of 7 December 2001 Kandahar, it seemed, destroyed the power of the Taliban. In December 2001 the Taliban had only a third of their army, about 15-20 thousand. The strength of the "al-Qaeda" consisted of ten thousand men - since then to the rescue came three thousand Pakistanis.
However, the leadership of the Pakistani intelligence Agency ISI in Afghanistan led a double game: formally agreeing with the policy of the United States, in fact, it did not want to destroy the Taliban. The attempt by the US arms Benazir Bhutto to reduce the influence of ISI over for her first loss of the post of Prime Minister, and then and death. Significantly, ISI was created by the British, and Pakistani intelligence Agency decades pursued a policy of hands of Islamic fundamentalist organizations in Kashmir, East Pakistan (Bangladesh) and in India itself. In fact, ISI was the organization of the Islamic fundamentalists, simply put, the Salafis, did not rule out that it conflicts with other fundamentalist organizations.
The war in Afghanistan ensured the inflow of new ISI - already Afghan — frames, and it is not surprising that the Taliban movement was created directly with the help of the border forces of Pakistan. The first big success of the Taliban Mullah Omar was the seizure in 1995 of the city Doorhe Afghanistan - when Mullah Omar was only two thousand fighters. "Al-Qaeda"
Pakistani was part of the project is the fact that Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri understanding of the guerrilla war, unlike their opponents. They made a bid for the training through constant combat "break" in those wars, which wore any Islamic character. Creating camps in Afghanistan, they have produced not just combat coordination, but the religious-political spike their fighters. But once more on new fronts, were performed by the same spike and coordination with the local staff, often reversing the usual "kuffar" in the real Mujahideen.
In staffing the management of "al-Qaeda" was head and shoulders above the leadership of the intelligence of their opponents. In the Afghanistan camps of al Qaeda trained many of the current commanders of the Mujahideen, including later lost the "Deputy" of Osama bin Laden on Iraq Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a native of Amman, a native of the Palestinian environment, and the leader of the Somali movement "al-Shabaab" Adan Hashi iroh.
Usama bin Laden was a very real person, and a special mystery is not that his way is "up" due to very trivial reasons. His family was quite rich and influential and, of course, had connections with the secret services of Saudi Arabia, which even before the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was prepared by the Mujahideen. With the beginning of the war in Afghanistan, saudity made a Pact with the Americans and the British about fighting against the Soviets. In Afghanistan in the coordination of special services of the USA, the UK and Saudi Arabia and with the support of the former ally of the USSR - Egypt established the office of "Maktab the Hida - Mat al-Mujahedeen", the head of which stood the Palestinian Abdullah Azzam. The last after his death and was replaced by Osama bin Laden. A major role in the recruitment and training of the Mujahideen played the representatives of the Pakistani and Saudi intelligence services, and partly of Egypt. The Americans then had to put the USSR the maximum loss, in order to avenge Vietnam, and how Americans traditionally tend to be short-term solutions, and they went to support Islamic guerrillas. In the end the United States as "partners" got radicals in the face of Saudi Islamic fundamentalists, or Salafis.
However bin Laden is pure saudische phenomenon, and to say that it did the Americans, wrong. Of course, in the USA, in France and in the UK there are forces that support the movement of Islamic fundamentalism in the world. The first Congress of the "al-Qaeda" was held in London, but the modern world is multipolar, and geopolitics in the conventional sense has lost its role.
It should be understood that al-Qaida is an organization, managing people, primarily through religious — fatwa, and only then - military and economic. Over and bin Laden were religious leaders, had such right. In this way al-Qaeda and reached its influence in the world, providing the support of money and weapons. Due to this fact, even Saudi Arabia, the country is rich and therefore independent, in which king Fahd relies on a strong enough army, is facing the danger of guerrilla warfare.
With the war in Afghanistan, the resignation of the ISI chief General Mahmoud in November 2001, almost nothing has changed, because most of the officers of ISI professed views that only slightly differs from the views of the Taliban. It is not surprising that some of the forces of al - Qaeda left in 2001 from Afghanistan with the help of the Pakistani ISI service.
After the overthrow of the Taliban regime of Afghanistan for some time was a relatively peaceful place, there were mainly factional fighting between warlords, held under the Pro-Western government of Hamid Karzai. The Hamid Karzai quickly quarreled with most of his allies from the campaign 2001-2002. For example, the head of Herat province Ismail Khan, received the post of Minister of energy, cut ties with Karzai. The successor to Ahmad Shah Massoud, the head of the Tajik Mohammed Fahim was Karzai sent in his resignation from the post of defense Minister, and General Abdul Rashid Dostum, who controlled in the campaign forces of the Uzbeks, was forced to emigrate to Turkey.
The Taliban is quite a monolithic structure, well-organized and cemented the ideological factor, and the emergence of opposition groups among the Taliban was not observed. In addition to the Taliban's guerrilla war against the Karzai government and the beginning of the movement "Hizb-I-Islami" Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, one of the most influential commanders during the war against the Soviet army. However, the reliance on local Afghan forces has led to the fact that the bulk of Taliban forces were able to escape and move to guerrilla warfare. The clean-up operation of the massif Tora Bora, held from 3 to 17 December 2001 special operations forces, the US and the UK, relied on local allied Afghan forces, did not bring tangible success.
New operation "Anaconda" was held from 1 to March 18, 2002 against Taliban forces in the valley of Shahi - kot under the Character. The plan was to smash the Taliban in a place where they wintered. The campaign was carried out not only by U.S. special forces, but also forces 101st air assault and 10th mountain divisions, which formed the basis of task force Hammer ("Hammer"), who played a key role. While Afghan allies that formed the basis of a tactical grouping Anvil ("Anvil"), played a supporting role. Due to some tactical errors mostly Taliban managed to escape, though they suffered heavy losses.
The U.S. army already existed the developed model of the fight against the guerrillas - agile operation "circle", "Ring", "Hammer and anvil", "Double jump".
In August 2003, under U.S. pressure, NATO took over command of the International security assistance force (ISAF) in Afghanistan. The ISAF joint command ultimately controlled except that the centre of Kabul and its own base, giving the rest of the territory of Afghanistan at the mercy of the warlords, cajoled through the Karzai government - with impunity to plunder foreign aid. A large number of foreign companies, which was transferred to the main part of the development programs of Afghanistan, overcharging for their services, were not interested in the correctness of the chosen strategy, and the very meaning of their activities.
With the rise of internecine strife grew and the number of international forces. With 8 thousand people in 2002, it was increased by 2005 to 15 thousand troops, and troops were not enough to control the country. All of this was trying to repay financial investments. In January, re 2002 in Tokyo, the international community has allocated for the economic rehabilitation of Afghanistan 4.7 billion US dollars. The financial management was entrusted to the world Bank, the timeframe for their submission up to the beginning of 2005. In March 2003, the second conference of donor countries in Berlin, it was decided to allocate for the next three years and 8.2 mil-liard dollars. In October 2004, elections were held for President of Afghanistan. However, in practice it only helped the Taliban, who through their tribal ties, in the end, prove to be one of the users of this assistance.
While the international conference was put forward the idea of creating security zones on borders with Afghanistan, it was not implemented in life. In the end, using the powerful factor of Islamic fundamentalism, the growing discontent of the population in extortion and looting warlords, the Taliban have been able in 2005 to dramatically increase their activities.
In the second half of 2005, the Taliban has raised a real revolt against the Americans and NATO by shooting down several helicopters, shutting dozens of armored vehicles and trucks with fuel and supplies for the allied troops and killing several hundred Afghan police, soldiers and fighters of NATO and the United States. British tactical group "Helmand", created on the basis of the 16th parachute brigade, since April 2006, was embroiled in heavy fighting in Helmand and Kandahar. In the small town of Sangin in Helmand the British from June 2006 to April 2007 were actually surrounded by the Taliban.
I must say that the Americans had no thought-out strategy to combat the guerrillas in Afghanistan. Did not help them and the experience of the war in Iraq. In Afghanistan the Americans are unable to use a "strategy for Iraq", because they do not have large numbers of local allies.
However, even without a clear strategy, command of ISAF was able to show better results using the proven tactics of creation of posts, preparation of new efficient special forces units of the Afghan army and active measures for search and destruction of Taliban forces and al-Qaida. But in practice commanders of various contingents chose to sit out on the bases either were obviously meaningless operations, to avoid casualties in their ranks. Forces American special forces, with no support from local, highly heterogeneous, army of Karzai, had been unable to consolidate the achievements of its aircraft and, eventually, themselves become ambush.
Thanks to the creation of a network of al-Qaida, the Taliban got the opportunity to get new staff trained professionals — not only from the Islamic but also from the European countries and also the former USSR. The Taliban themselves in 2007 directly controlled 54 percent of Afghanistan, and in 2008 this figure stood at around 72 percent.
In the future southern Afghanistan has become the main venue of the military operations of ISAF, such as "Strike of the sword" and "eagle Claw", in 2009. While Oruzgan province - where he had been born as himself, Mullah Omar and many of his commanders - strangely remained outside the zones of these operations.
In this case, is evident the existence of agreements between the Taliban and Hamid Karzai, who is in most control of the police. The latter served as a kind of buffer between the Taliban and the army of Afghanistan covered by the control system by the US army and ISAF, and then there's the question of in whose interests was the existence of this buffer.
An open secret in Afghanistan was that the Ministry of internal Affairs of Afghanistan controls the crop of raw opium in the country, and purchasing in big amounts is carried out by the Iranians.
In the rest of Afghanistan hold military operations were shifted to the Afghanistan army and police, whereas the strength of the security service were involved mainly to escort convoys, training of the Afghan army, providing reference for various construction work and "humanitarian" programs.
It was known that the troops separate armies practiced bribing the commanders of the Taliban forces, that they not carried out attacks on their forces, and such practices could not allow the influence of these contingents in the local environment. Thus, maintained a fragile equilibrium based on mutual interests, and because the Taliban until 2012 could not be compared with past armed the Mujahideen of Afghanistan. Unlike the past the Taliban had no artillery, first towed 130-mm guns and 120 mm mortars. Own defense, in particular MANPADS and anti-aircraft artillery, was presented in single samples. So the primitive nature of their weaponry based on light infantry weapons, antitank hand grenade launchers and improvised explosive devices, could not be compared on these indicators with any more or less large guerrilla movement of the late twentieth century. Because the security forces and ISAF could afford to sit out on the bases - providing conduct offensive operations against the Tali-BOV on special forces of their armies and the army and police of Afghanistan.
In 2012, a portion of the units of the army of the USA and France troops were withdrawn from Afghanistan. The Taliban forces have virtually operational freedom — which was not slow to take advantage. The Taliban attacked the base of the Bastion and destroyed six fighter-bombers, AV-8B marine Corps of the United States.
The army of Afghanistan was not able to fight against the Taliban, as represented legkotekuchie counterinsurgency forces, who have mainly small arms, man-portable anti-tank systems and towed artillery, as well as a limited number of wheeled armored vehicles. By December 2011 it consisted of 170 thousand soldiers and had six buildings - with headquarters in Kabul, Gardez, Herat, Kandahar, Lashkar Gah and Mazar-I-Sharif.
As for the air force, they consisted of helicopters Mi-17, Mi-35 and MD-530F, whose total number reached by the end of 2011 fifty. In addition, there were another 14 light transport aircraft C-27 and Cessna aircraft communications. Combat planes in the army of Afghanistan was not available, attempt purchasing in the former USSR warplanes failed. It opposed military advisers from the United States, who did not want to spend a American financial assistance for the purchase of non-U.S. samples of military equipment.
The practice of training the Afghan army forces groups of the military advisers of the U.S. army and ISAF security force had no intended effect due to the large employee turnover, which was chosen, according to Afghan tradition, kinship and clan relations, without any checks and examinations. Soon all this came to light when the cases of killings of U.S. military personnel and security forces by members of the army of Afghanistan.
The Americans were not able to control the processes occurring within Afghan society, thus violating their own doctrine of "observation-orientation-decision-action" and let the Taliban then forwarded unhindered public to deal with their opponents within Afghan society. The struggle against foreign occupation was simply a pretext to facilitate the "sweep" enemies of the Islamic revolution, which in this case was to kill as traitors of Islam and supporters of the occupiers. This is consistent with Islamic law, condemning those who violate the law in an Islamic state, but justifying the murder of those who, violating the laws of Islam service "infidels", he is an apostate. In fact, any revolution is directed not against external enemies but against internal enemies. Meanwhile, this important factor was not taken into account by the Americans in Afghanistan where they were "on top" installation launched for the construction of a "democratic" society - in its Western sense, regardless of the fact that the company needed a military dictatorship. Thus opened the door to Islamic fundamentalism.
The U.S. strategy in Afghanistan as a strategy of "leading countries" have failed in the area of police reform, for which Germany was responsible, and justice, for which he was responsible Italy. Provincial reconstruction team reconstruction has not gained influence because of local politics of Afghanistan have resisted them.
Because of this, the Taliban has managed in recent years to gain influence in the provinces - as, for example, in Wardak, is not just where you stand, but has gained influence in "apostolski" environment.
Equally serious weaknesses evident in the manner of military contingents of the European NATO countries, requiring lengthy procedures, inappropriate for "protivoprotosana" action. Although in the armies of Germany and France had prepared the forces, their troops stationed in Northern Afghanistan, frequently avoided active participation in combat operations and supported the Taliban conditional neutrality.
According to the Group human rights when the UN mission for assistance to Afghanistan for eight months of 2008 in Afghanistan have died 1455 people, 800 of them killed by the Taliban.
February 11, 2009 the Taliban have already attacked the center of Kabul, at the Ministry of justice, and killed several dozen people. Although Kabul itself was stationed a few army units, including brigade of special purpose, placed near the former presidential Palace. When you consider that the Afghan army and police were trained in various private and public companies in the US, the UK, South Africa and France, according to Western logic, we can assume that if its not taught, then the Taliban in Central Kabul could ride on the tanks. How was the selection process in the police of Afghanistan, is seen on the example of 2009 when an Afghan policeman shot dead five British soldiers at a checkpoint in Helmand province.
In Afghanistan, the war gathered momentum, and in the battle in September 2009 in one day killed up to fifty people, including five us soldiers - down from September 2009 in Afghanistan killed 36 American soldiers and one salt-dates NATO.
After in 2012, operations were transferred to the Afghan army and local police, the Taliban in one way or another were present in all areas of the country.
In practice, joint NATO operations with the army of Afghanistan was the fact that the command of the contingent of a country hired a group of local fighters, which then, together with his special forces, were sent on operations, not caring too much about the result, or just through the Afghan officers, paid money to Taliban commanders, so they did not attack units of the contingent.
In the same Afghanistan commercial entities take control of one of the activities of the army, forcing the government to various projects in the field of "reconstruction" of the country - for the sake of obtaining new profits, regardless of the problems of the state budget.
The U.S. war in Afghanistan are extremely costly, because of the nature of the U.S. army. In fact, the American army is a kind of Corporation, a huge bureaucratic machine is devoid of flexibility and opportunities in time to respond to changes in the political and military situation. This army is a very expensive machine, even for the American economy. Because of this the main task of the army is maintaining its own body - regardless of external factors. The war itself Americans understood this: first I have someone to buy, and then use it to win. However, everything here is about money, and if money printing is impossible, and the war America can't win you can. Of course, the American economy is run by intelligent people, and what they obviously are, but what is happening in Afghanistan shows that there were processes that could lead to the collapse of the efforts of the U.S. army.
If simulate possible ways of development of the crisis in the Middle East in conditions of a deep global financial crisis and the withdrawal of American army from Afghanistan, here the picture may be quite unexpected - and not for all participants of the crisis it will be optimistic. In October 2008 the Sunday Times published an interview with the commander of the British 16th air assault brigade, said: "We are not going to win this war... Disputes should be allowing us not through the barrel of a gun, and through negotiations."
Source: "Men's work", No. 46, 2013, p.16-21
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