Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Defence and security / Equipment and armament: yesterday, today and prospect / Articles
How will arm the Armed forces of Russia in the next ten years?
Material posted: Publication date: 19-11-2017
Analysis of information on the State armaments program for the period from 2018 to 2027, on the eve of its approval.

 

The closer has long been the prolonged time of the signing of the State armaments programme for the period from 2018 to 2027 (LG-2027), the more news, information "stuffing" of different quality and speculation about it getting. The latest data on the new SAP was made public by Vice Prime Minister of Russia Dmitry Rogozin, and sufficiently detailed information with reference to anonymous sources in the military-industrial complex (MIC) and the Ministry of defence published the edition "Kommersant". In addition, according to the publication, in the period from 20 to 23 November will be held the meeting of Vladimir Putin with representatives of defence companies and the Ministry of defense of Russia, where they will finalize the parameters of the LG 2027 (with the signing in December 2017), estimated at 19 trillion (1 trillion can be allocated for the construction of infrastructure for purchased equipment). Let's see what is known about the new LG today and if there's any problems.

Strategic nuclear forces will continue to evolve

Of course, the financing of the rearmament of strategic nuclear forces of Russia will remain at a high level, as they are responsible for a guaranteed peaceful existence of the country. According to available information, the strategic Missile forces will receive a new mobile solid-fuel Intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) "Frontier" and liquid heavy silo-based ICBMs of the RS-28 "Sarmat" and the combat railway missile complex "Barguzin". More expected and "routine" work — the replacement by 2026, all ICBM "Topol" with the more modern RS-24 "YARS" (re going rapidly in recent years).

 

ICBM RS-24 "YARS"

As for the naval component of the nuclear triad, there are questions. According to the aforementioned publication, the LG will come in and perspective the fifth generation of submarines "Husky", and with some liquid ballistic missile submarines (SLBM). It is worth noting that earlier in mass media and statements of officials "Husky" was referred to as a multi-purpose nuclear submarine — the carrier of cruise missiles "Caliber" and promising hypersonic anti-ship missiles "Zircon". Were hints on the versatility of the submarines is the ability to use it as a carrier of strategic weapons (SLBMs), but this possibility is questionable, especially given the recent statements by the chief of the General staff of the Russian Armed forces Valery Gerasimov about the beginning of works on creation of the modernized submarines of project 955Б "Borey-B", which will probably be laid down in the period after 2020 (by that time needs to be completed a series of five submarines of the project "Borey"). With high probability these submarines, like its predecessors, will carry 16 solid-fuel SLBM R-30 "Bulava". As for the "Husky", according to the statement of the Deputy commander of the Russian Navy, Vice-Admiral Victor Borsuk, head the boat needs to be laid in 2023-2024. Of course, this is a very optimistic plans, given the low pace of construction of the same multi-purpose submarines of project 855М "Yasen-M" (in different degree of readiness there are six submarines). And low funding of the Navy in the new SAP-2027 is unlikely to contribute to production of a large series of such ships in the coming "school" will most likely be finalized closer to 2027 will be the first ships of the new type. As for news about liquid SLBMs — that there is very little likelihood that the decision will be made use of on future strategic submarines development BCLR-29RMU2.1 "Liner" development of SRC them. Makeyev. Perhaps it was from representatives of the company and based on the rumors about a new rocket — it is obvious that SRC was not against to oust the most successful "Bulava". However, for the Russian Navy this approach will not be optimal, especially with a limited budget. To date, the Navy needs maximum standardization is one type of strategic nuclear submarine with a single type BRLP for her.

On the other hand, about a year ago, information appeared about the development of new solid-fuel SLBM to replace the "Bulava", and again the forces of SRC them. Makeeva, and it went about installing it as a "Borei", and in the future strategic submarines. Thus, until the end to deal with the existing scenario while it is difficult, probably due to the lack of clarity from the Ministry of defense of Russia and, accordingly, developers.

As for the strategic air command, we will implement plans to restore production of the Tu-160M2 "White Swan" in a deeply modernized appearance. Will be conducted a research work on a promising aviation complex distant aviation (PAK DA), but we can hardly expect a large funding for this programme against the background of lack of funds, and the big rush in this area no, given the start of production of the new Tu-160. Will continue to routinely upgrade and long-range bombers Tu-22M3.


Illustration: The Ministry Of Defence
Tu-160M2

Military shipbuilding: the dream of the aircraft carrier and the destroyer oceanic zone unrealizable

Apparently, most the LG 2027 will be reduced funding for the Navy. If in the previous GPV-2020, the fleet was 4.7 trillion rubles, now it will be a sum of not more than 3 trillion (most likely 2.6 trillion). The step is quite justified, given the problems with the development of the allocated last time amounts — many of the mortgaged ships (especially frigates) are not built in time for different reasons (break military-technical cooperation with Ukraine and the EU, lack of integrated air defense systems, etc.). Thus, the emphasis on completion of already laid small missile ships, corvettes and frigates, as well as the further production of nuclear and diesel-electric submarines.

Development and production of such ambitious projects, as the ocean zone destroyer or an aircraft carrier, clearly do not fit into the above budget, and industry to such ships is not ready.

It remains an open question and amphibious assault ships ("helicopter") in Russia — previously heard official statements about their inclusion in the new SAP. However, it is unclear the exact draft of the ships and their number.

Land forces and VDV will get serious bonus

In GPV-2020 to re-Ground and the airborne troops went small share of funds — a total of 2.6 trillion. This time, according to reports, they will be worth at least 4 trillion, which will not only upgrade equipment, but also purchasing the new generation of products — T-14 based on a heavy tracked platform "Armata", infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) based on medium tracked platform "kurganets-25", wheeled armored personnel carriers on the platform "boomerang", etc. there is Also information about the development of the new line means the military defense (PVO) under the code "Standard". Needs to development and system battle management at various levels. And, of course, will continue to work on new unmanned aerial vehicles with the purpose to catch up a serious backlog in this area.


Daria Antonova © IA REGNUM
T-14 "Armata"

Air defense and aviation continue to rise

Funding for the aerospace defense and military aircraft (except helicopters — they will allocate less money), apparently, will remain at the same level. Will continue purchasing the well-established aircraft — su-30CM and su-35S, Sukhoi su-34. From 2019, the troops will start to the fifth generation fighter, the su-57, until an obscure number (apparently, it will depend on the pace of development of the engine of the second stage). In addition, there is information on whether the LG 2027 order 24 light fighter MiG-35. Given the rather backward layout of machines in terms of avionics (no promised earlier radar with an active phased antenna array) and a lot of the cost, the purchase of such a small batch of aircraft is not very efficient, because it will cause more problems than good.

As for the defense, apparently, will continue to purchase anti-aircraft missile complexes (AAMS) s-400, it is likely that in the early to mid 2020-ies will begin to enter the army and missile defense (AMD) s-500. It is also expected the entry into force of SAM "Buk-M3" and C-350. There are interesting questions — the fate of the new strategic missile defense system A-235 "Nudol". The secrecy of this program does not allow you to do about it no substantive predictions. As for the satellite constellation — that is expected to launch several new satellites are optical-electronic reconnaissance "Hrazdan", and further deployment of satellites Single space detection and combat control (Axobu) "Tundra".

Overall the LG-2027 can be more balanced than predecessor

Despite roughly equal funding, the LG 2027 will be more balanced than the preceding GPV-2020. This is largely achieved through increased emphasis on re-equipping the land forces that is more in tune with the existing Russian challenges, rather than building up the surface fleet. To achieve the maximum effect from invested funds must act in the direction of maximum unification of military equipment, rejection of different types of products of the same purpose (as, for example, two strategic submarines with SLBMs different, etc.), as well as the rejection of the concept of non-market support to companies of unnecessary military orders (as in the case of a batch of 24 MiG-35).

Leonid Nersisyan

Source: https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2346188.html

Tags: Russia , AME


RELATED MATERIALS: Defence and security