Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Defence and security / Civil war in Syria: preliminary conclusions and lessons / Articles
Bashar al-Assad, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Kurdish question
Material posted: Publication date: 11-08-2016
The Pentagon, the state Department and the administration of the President of the United States to perform tasks that intersect only depending on the predilections of those behind-the-scenes structures that stand behind each of these entities. The interests of the business elites of States and the strategic implementation of these interests build policy of the United States against friends, enemies and allies. Of course, the defense industry is designed for constant warfare and the development of new weapons.

The war in the middle East had replaced the arms race of the cold war. Reformat the borders of Asia minor and the attempt to create a "greater Kurdistan", which will include the territory of the Kurds in Iran, Syria, Turkey and Iraq is the legacy of the policy of the late XIX-early XX century. After the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in the middle East was formed, and the state on the principle of political ambitions and economic needs of the United States, Britain and France.

But, returning to the international context of the XXI century, we need to define some main points. US policy designed for the long decades ahead, and the support that States provide to the Kurds, gives us the opportunity to understand the reasons for this support. 30-the million population of the Kurds of Iraq, Syria, Iran and Turkey - the largest ethnic education in the world without their own state. Those areas in which the resettlement of the Kurds, predominantly rich in energy reserves. The strengthening of the Kurds in Syria and Iraq will directly affect the situation of Kurds in Turkey, not in favor of the Turkish government.

If you look at the map of Syria from the point of view of territorial control – what do we see? Almost the entire South, West and North-West is already controlled by government forces loyal to Assad. The exception is those areas around Aleppo, which occupied dzhebhat an-Nusra (an organization banned in Russia). If the government forces Syria will clean the territory from terrorists, which inevitably, given the conduct of the army of Syria and the Russian Centre for reconciliation the warring parties in the Syrian Arab Republic humanitarian operations in Aleppo, built almost straight line. The Assad government will control the entire West of Syria, in the North-East secured, the Kurds, and the Central part and the South-East will remain for ISIS (an organization banned in Russia).

Profound transformation around Syria in the future directly exacerbate the problem of the Kurds for many reasons. The US supports the Kurds in contrast to the growing influence of Turkey. Bashar al-Assad will be forced to deal with the Kurdish question after the completion of the operation in Aleppo and the subsequent destruction of ISIS. If the Russian Federation has not intervened in Syria, then reformat the borders of Syria would have passed under the scenario the US and the Arabian monarchies. In this case, Turkey would play in the same team with the United States, with the condition that Turkish Kurds will not have influence on the Syrian issue and the problem of the Turkish Kurds will remain an internal affair of Turkey. The support that Russia and Iran had provided Syria to fight with terrorist organisations, the cooling of relations between Turkey and Russia after the downed plane, the subsequent Erdogan's apology and an unsuccessful coup attempt in Turkey, which, in the opinion of the Turkish side, were inspired by the United States, defined the new realities.

The government of Turkey understands that the United States seek to divide this state, despite the fact that Turkey is a NATO member and close US ally in the region. But if we consider the long term, the creation of a Kurdish state and the control of these government will allow the U.S. through Kurdistan to pursue the same policy in the middle East that Turkey is pursuing in the interests of America. But the tasks and methods of implementation will be somewhat different, given that Turkey is an established state with strong national doctrine that won't look on the Anglo-Saxons to the detriment of the interests of the ruling elites and the Turkish people. The reversal of Turkey's foreign policy and strengthening ties with Russia shows us that the US is becoming more difficult to control Turkey. A newly established Kurdish state, if it is created, will fall under the full control of the United States.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will hold a meeting in early August. It can be assumed that the Kurdish issue will be discussed behind closed doors and the outcome of negotiations on this issue will not be made public, but will be changing in the future political situation.

What can agree Putin and Erdogan?

Bashar al-Assad and the Kurds today are almost allies in the fight against ISIS. Kurds backed by the United States and the government of Syria, the Russian Federation and Iran. After the defeat of ISIS would be the Kurds and the Syrian government.

The Syrian leadership and the Russian foreign Ministry has repeatedly stated that territorial integrity of Syria no doubt. Some Western analysts, however, and part of Russia's claim that Syria is impossible to keep in the borders in which it existed prior to the current crisis. But, based on the allegations that Syria must be restored in its former borders, it becomes apparent - in the future, the main ally of Syria in the middle East on the issue of the integrity of the two States is Turkey.

The reason for this Union is the strengthening of the Kurds and the US attempts to create a Kurdish state, which in itself will cause a change in the borders of Turkey, which will lose almost one-fourth of the territory, and departure from Syria's oil fields, which Kurds live.

Neither Turkey nor Syria will not go for it. Will not do it and Iran, as the Iranian Kurds, too explosive factor. During the negotiations Putin and Erdogan this question, one way or another, will entail agreement between them. Even if Assad is gone, Turkey will not have the resolution of the Kurdish issue in its favor, given the US position.

By all indications, Erdogan now is beneficial to the Bashar al-Assad remained at his post, and the change of Turkey's position on the fate of the Syrian President and the subsequent Alliance will allow the two States to resolve the Kurdish issue in its favor, in contrast to the United States. Erdogan will have to choose between the idea of "neo-Ottomanism", which almost failed, and the real Kurdish problem, which was complicated due to the weakening of the army after a failed coup attempt and purges in the ranks of the army.

But there is another option. The U.S. recognizes the Kurdistan workers ' party (PKK) as a terrorist organization, because at the end of August going to Turkey U.S. Secretary of state John Kerry, thus giving Erdogan a carte Blanche for deciding the fate of the Turkish Kurds. And the situation will get completely different development.

Mavsar Varayev


Source: http://www.grozny-inform.ru/news/express/75421/

Tags: Iran , Russia , Syria , Turkey


RELATED MATERIALS: Defence and security
Возрастное ограничение