The media spreads information about the fruitlessness held in Geneva of negotiations between the opposition and the Syrian authorities. Some experts give very pessimistic predictions. The negotiations were disagreements among the major powers of the world.
A negative role was also played by internal political tensions in Syria. In any case, no specific predictions about the future course of events in this country. The middle East seemed to have taken another step towards the band of uncertainty.
Controversial aspects in fruitless conferences
"Geneva-2" has not yielded positive results. We can say that the parties have not reached any serious agreement. About this at the Munich conference on security issues officially declared the UN representative L. Ibrahimi. And today the world's media spread the wide information about the content of negotiations and the propositions. It turns out that the failure of the conference was originally understood. But why did the "Geneva-2" took place? Is there a model solution to the Syrian problem?
To find the answer to these questions is difficult. But, given the global impact of the Syrian problem, on them shall be mentioned. First, we note that the "Geneva-2" was conducted mainly at the insistence of Russia. It is true that initially the West gave consent to organize a peace conference. The fact that the initiative came from Moscow. Apparently, that is why some circles, to be peaceful, turned down the offer of the Kremlin.
While in Syria, not for a moment did not stop armed clashes. According to Time magazine, from the commencement of negotiations in Geneva in Syria have been killed up to 6 thousand people! More specifically, from 22 January to 14 February in Syria has killed 5792 people. Of these, 1622 person – it's civilians. The rebels lost 1500, the army of Bashar al-Assad – 1017 fighters (see: Andrew Katz. Report: Almost 6,000 Dead in Syria During Geneva Talks / "World.time.com", February 17, 2014).
Note that initially, between the West and Russia, there was much controversy and the question of who from the Syrian side will participate in the negotiations. And now a group called "internal opposition", demanding to include it in the negotiation process. Headed by Qadri Jamil. He was the Deputy Prime Minister of Syria and resigned in October 2013.
K. Jamil called moderate opposition. He currently heads the popular Front, consisting of the coalition forces fighting for peace and freedom update. July 22, 2013 K. Jamil met with Sergei Lavrov. After the Geneva conference he held discussions following the conference with the special representative of the Russian President for the Middle East M. Bogdanov (see: Sergei Lavrov met in Moscow with Deputy Prime Minister of Syria Q. Jamil / "Serfilatov.livejournal.com", July 22, 2013; the Deputy foreign Minister discussed the situation in Syria with the opposition representative / Kommersant, February 8, 2014).
Experts believe that the "internal opposition" has created al-Assad. They are supported by Moscow and Tehran. Criticism that the opposition group involved in these negotiations and put forward its requirements to include it in the negotiation process shows that the situation in Syria has worsened. It is obvious that the West and Russia in accordance with their interests in Syria formed the "opposition" group. In such circumstances, peace talks can not give positive results.
To dangerous geopolitical "zone"
But there is a strong likelihood that Syria will emerge new nodes geopolitical contradictions. The first signs of this are already evident. According to information circulated in the American press, Barack Obama has decided to provide weapons to groups loyal to him to the Syrian opposition (see, eg.: U.S. Scolds Russia as It Weighs Options on Syrian War / "The New York Times", February 17, 2014). The U.S. President said that "we need to reconsider past and current opportunities". According to experts, Washington accepted the offer of Saudi Arabia to supply the opposition with advanced weapons.
Against this backdrop draws attention the information spread by the newspaper "The Daily Star", published in Beirut. It says that in the spring of this year the opposition forces of Syria will begin a massive attack. Support their external forces can provide them in a huge quantity of arms and ammunition. American specialists in Jordan is already prepared to thousands of fighters who will join the struggle (see: Syria rebels say planning Damascus spring offensive / "Dailystar. com.lb", 18 February 2014).
Hence we can conclude that the "Geneva-2" is not clarified in the Syrian issue, but even more complicated. Now no hope that parties will achieve the peace negotiations. However, at the suggestion of Argentina in the UN Security Council reached an agreement on certain items. But they are not to direct conflict resolution, and to humanitarian assistance (see: the Council agreed on several paragraphs of the resolution on Syria / "Gazeta.ru" on February 19, 2014). The proposal of Buenos Aires to stop supplying weapons to the warring parties was not accepted.
The change in the situation around Syria, of course, is a threat. Major powers actually did nothing in order to resolve the conflict. There is a danger of in the region of serious problems. In this respect, we should note a few things.
First, the sectarian conflict in Syria could further deepen, as amid the failure of talks in Geneva to disseminate information about the deepening of the internal contradictions in the country. This highlights the assistance provided Assad the Shia. Simultaneously, the democratization of Syria was transferred to a confrontation "mode-al-Qaeda" (see: Birol Akgün. Anglo-Sakson Derin Yapının "Islam'a Karşı Islam" Politikası ve Türkiye / Strtejik Düşünce Enstitüsü, February 11, 2014).
Secondly, geopolitical forces around the world still use the Syrian issue to their advantage. However, they do not stop before you configure the peoples and States of the region against each other. Currently active for the Islamic world sectarian differences. All this shows that in the near future to resolve the Syrian problem are not going.
Thirdly, between strong States in the Middle East could ignite a conflict. Applies, in particular, the fact that Saudi Arabia is preparing for a big war (see: Alexander Samsonov. Saudi Arabia is preparing for a big war / "Military review", February 17, 2014). It is unknown who exactly is going to fight Riyadh. But he buys the most modern weapons and amplifies the power of his army. The experts write that the target is Iran. But it could be a provocation. The reality is that the geopolitical ambitions of Saudi Arabia has increased significantly. In the current uncertain situation of a strong state in the region can start a war.
Fourthly, radical religious groups pose a serious threat to all Muslim countries. They actually drag them into conflicts with major world powers. Muslims allegedly pose a threat to the US, EU, Russia and China. All this opens the way to intrigues and makes it impossible to resolve the conflict. Islamophobia remains a serious obstacle to ensuring geopolitical stability in the middle East.
Thus, in reality, "Geneva-2" has not brought peace in Syria and stability. On the contrary, it laid the Foundation for geopolitical developments that threaten the Middle East. There are new contradictions. And it is difficult to guarantee that this situation will not lead to war.
Tags: assessment , Syria
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