Tonality of the western media last days frankly alarmistskaja - continuing to charge Russia of cruel bombardments of Aleppo, the press writes about a total failure of the American policy on the Syrian direction. Even in editorial articles of the Anglo-Saxon press it is said that already «not to hide that gloomy circumstance that Obama's administration sees today a total failure of the strategy».
The environment and fast falling of Aleppo moves as scale humanitarian catastrophic crash in which Russia which does not want to stop operations is guilty, but it is clear that the West has realised the defeat in Syria. Neither the USA, nor conditionally western (when to it it is favourable) Turkey cannot stop approach of the Syrian army which will return in the near future itself the control over Aleppo and the most part of border with Turkey. It is crisis in war - focused on the West, Turkey and Saudi Arabia insurgents cannot receive the help from the outside any more, and position in the western part of Syria is unequivocally broken for benefit of Damascus. It yet a victory of Asada, and at all a victory in war for exemption western (and the most occupied) parts of Syria - but the major advancement in its party.
Not Moscow considered Syria as arena of opposition of Russia and the West - is primary States and the Gulf countries have counted on antiasadovskie forces, helping them with civil war. By the time of when Russia has passed from arms supplies to Damascus to direct military participation of the aircraft in operations, the USA, Europe, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have practically written-off for a long time already Asada - disputes went basically how to equip posleasadovskuju Syria and to cope IGIL which has unexpectedly grown in the strongest and uncontrollable anybody of the player. But less than for half a year the situation has exchanged - already Asad by means of Russia returns itself the control over the country, and any «the armed opposition» cannot stop this process.
To go most to be at war to Syria the West does not want and cannot, after all it is formal at Russia and the West there there is a general enemy - IGIL. Bombardments which Washington made active on the western, Iraq front against IGIL - thus considering that in the Syrian bog Russia will get stuck for a long time and time will agree about section of spheres of influence in Syria - have weakened positions "halifata", but could not help antiasadovskim to insurgents in any way. And without «the armed opposition» to be traded with Moscow there is nothing - Russia on party Asada and its army, the legal government and what is at you?
Negotiations in Geneva, of course, will renew, but all understand that all dares in the field of fight. And than less territories remains under "the opposition" control, the its prospect become worse, the it will be more difficult than the USA to show the influence on the Syrian settlement. Actually States strengthening of positions of Asada and at all disturbs not that Moscow acquires the casting vote right at determination of the future of Syria - eventually, (or at least it bolshej parts) after the beginning of the Russian military operation of the USA already could be prepared for loss of Syria morally.
The most unpleasant for Washington - in far-reaching consequences of defeat of their plan of the Syrian settlement. The USA and so have already lost the most part of trust from the majority of regional powers in the Near East, and restoration by Asadom by means of Moscow of the control over Syria means definitive loss of the person for America.
After all it turns out that almost all neighbours of Syria and regional powers (except Iran) were together with the USA and Europe against Asada, in this or that form supporting «the armed opposition» - and for four years its defeat could not achieve. And Russian aircraft has arrived - and for some months Asad has broken a situation to own advantage. That is Russia has alone changed also States with their huge military and geopolitical possibilities, and the Islamic countries helping opponents of Asada.
Comprehension of this fact has begun in the autumn, at once after the beginning of the Russian operation - but now when its first stage comes to an end with an environment of Aleppo, Americans in the opinion of Arabs look especially faintly. We are ready to be at war in Syria if the coalition led by the USA makes such the decision - speak saudity, perfectly understanding that Washington will not dare at operations (and without the USA Saudi Arabia will not be at war in Syria). But sauditam it is important, that States have confirmed that they cannot, do not want, will not be, that is will refuse to the major Near-Eastern ally.
The reasons, across which USA will not be at war - a domestic situation, collusion to Moscow or Iran, unwillingness to get into new war - too are important, but nevertheless are secondary for the Saudi princes. For them the fact of refusal of Washington which they, certainly, regard as treachery is basic. And treachery any more the first - in 2013 kingdom even has refused a place in the UN Security Council, so in Riyadh were dissatisfied with Obama's refusal of the promised blow across Syria. So now in the saudovsko-American relations the cat, and a high-grade black panther will run any more.
The kingdom which guarantor of safety always were the USA, cannot trust Washington any more, and in present military Near-Eastern conditions for Riyadh it is far not an idle question. Aimed on sauditov "halifat", war with Yemen, the conflict to Iran - at kingdom is too much problems, not to mention the low prices for oil, start up in many respects Riyadh and provoked. States lose Saudi Arabia - and it is symbolical that visit to Moscow king Salmana, apparently, will take place already in the middle of March.
The trip of the king of Saudi Arabia first in the history to Russia has been originally planned for autumn of last year, but after the beginning of our operation in Syria Riyadh has decided to postpone visit, the blessing exact dates of a trip then yet were not proanonsirovany. Visit has first of all symbolical value - contacts at high level between Russia and Saudi Arabia last year and so were performed regularly: Putin talked to Salmanom in New York some days before the beginning of our operation in Syria, then in November in Turkey at "the twenty" summit, besides, they some times spoke on the phone, and for more extensive negotiations to Russia twice (in June and October) there came the son of the king and as a matter of fact sopravitel Mohammed.
Except sauditov Moscow the king of Morocco, the western suburb of the Arabian world have visited the majority of governors of the countries of the Gulf (the last there came the king of Bahrain), and even, Mohammed The Sixth has suddenly remembered that it was not 14 years in Russia. Arabs more than seriously consider now Moscow as the major player in all Big Near East, and the player active with which it is necessary to establish close relations.
Against disappointment in Americans, not to mention strong mistrust to them as because of their intrusion into Iraq, and behaviour during the Arabian spring and the Syrian conflict, Russia looks even more attractive. It not only does not hand over the allies, but also has close enough, and in Syria and simply allied, relations with Iran, that is is capable to soften intensity between the countries of the Gulf and Teheran.
To quarrel with Russia precisely wants nobody: having brought down on November, 24th the Russian plane, Turkey has shown all "delights" of such way. They at all in freezing of mutual relations (economic relations of our country with the Arabian monarchy modest enough), and in the termination of political interaction with Moscow in their own region, in the Near East. Having quarrelled with Putin, Erdogan has lost possibility of influence on Syrian so, and the Kurdish question, that is has threatened a homeland security of the state. And it that any governor of the Arabian world does not presume.
Especially in conditions when the American strategy in Syria has failed also nobody understands neither plans, nor methods of Washington in region, choosing between conviction that the USA simply want to extend a fire in region as it is possible longer, and suspicion that no strategy at them simply is present.
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