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The biggest danger 2019 — this is war
Material posted : Administrator Publication date: 16-01-2019

"Rosbalt" has asked experts to name the scenario, the realization of which they now dread the most.

Last year ended on a disturbing note. You could even say that these notes were several. Because of the incident in the Kerch Strait escalated dramatically the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Kiev officially acknowledged by the war. Then came the stock market crash in the United States and Japan, new sharp drop in oil prices. All of these events are not set up for the optimistic, continuing existing negative trends in world economy and politics.

And because we gaze with perplexity at the term. It is not excluded that the negative trends will continue. In this regard, the observer of "Rosbalt" asked the experts to tell you what they are most afraid of in the coming 2019.

They are all one of the most dangerous scenarios is the possibility of relapse into a major war. Where and with whom the options may be different, but one way or another about a possible military conflict with Russia said all analysts with whom managed to talk and it is alarming.

"The negative scenario is war," summarized the political analyst Igor Mintusov. According to him, "this war can be related, unforeseen clashes with NATO countries that may escalate into conflict."

According to the Director of the Centre for East European studies Andrey Okara, "we can say that humanity has come to a point beyond which uncontrolled chain of events that could lead to world war." He believes that it is "entirely realistic scenario."

University Professor of comparative politics, Dean of the faculty of political Sciences of the European University in Saint-Petersburg Grigory Votes believes that the most obvious negative event next time — the introduction of a new package of American sanctions against Russia. "These sanctions are now thought out, and while there is no absolute probability that they will enter. But generally speaking, American leadership must obey the law and to enter something", he said.

Another negative scenario could be expected of the Russian Federation in Syria, although the US President Donald trump, according to the Professor, "it would seem, did Vladimir Putin's big Christmas gift", saying the decision to withdraw American forces from that country.

The fact is, however, the analyst continues, that "now no one knows what consequences this step, because now in Eastern Syria has created a power vacuum and the filling may be very conflictual and complex process. I have the feeling that he really could contribute to further trap of Russia in the Syrian conflict."

In addition, as suggested by Votes, "it is theoretically possible aggravation of the situation around Ukraine". However, this scenario, he considers the least likely. The expert explained that it did not expect improvement of the situation around Ukraine, but also the strengthening of the military dynamics, in his opinion, too, is unlikely. "Both sides will be a lot of bellicose rhetoric, but in reality nothing will change, either for better or for worse," — said of the vote.

According to the Vice-President of Fund "the Center of political technologies" Alexey Makarkin, one of the most dangerous scenarios for 2019 is that Russia will be on the verge of involvement in a major conflict. "There is a balancing act, a kind of mental attacks on enemies. Military scenarios want to be avoided, but, nevertheless, it is very dangerous. In the Kerch Strait has been fired", — he reminded.

Ukraine and Russia now believe that the situation is controllable, he said, "but always in such cases there is a certain risk percentage, it will cease to be so". According to Makarkin, this happened in 1914 before the First world war, which also was preceded by a series of small, supposedly "managed" conflict.

The second threat scenario next year, according to Makarkin, is associated with the fall in oil prices. "Until we see that agreement in the format of "OPEC plus Russia" does not have a major impact on the market. In addition, there is a decline in oil reserves in the United States. The threat of a new global economic crisis also does not favour the growth of oil prices", — said the analyst. At the same time, in his opinion, the likelihood of a sharp drop to 30-35 dollars a barrel and save at this level for a long time, as well as the likelihood of a full-scale war, is only a few percent. "We have already passed the price drop to such a level and it's not catastrophic. Disaster is their long fall to such a level and maintaining it for two or three years." — added Makarkin.

Alexander Zelenin


Tags: assessment , war

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