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Gleb Pavlovsky: "next year we will see the "Indian uprising" of cultural and scientific groups against the "village of the dictatorship"
Material posted: Publication date: 31-12-2016
The end of the year always gives the opportunity to recap the events, to identify the key trends to speculate on future. Their assessments of the political outcome of the 2016 "Политком.RU" said famous Russian political scientist, President of the effective policy Foundation Gleb Pavlovsky.

The first question relates to self-awareness, the mindset of the Russian political elite. On the one hand, all she seems to be good. People have become accustomed to the deterioration of their situation and almost never complain. The state Duma elections were better than expected, the ruling party a constitutional majority. Non-systemic opposition in a state of half-life. But, on the other hand, ongoing high-profile criminal cases, which concern not only the governors and leading members of the government. And generally – not very clear prospects. How can you assess the psychological state and expectations of the ruling elite?

– I think that, first, the elite is not unified. Today such indicators as the elections to the Duma, in General, very mean little for the unity and consolidation of the elite. It counts down from the opposition. But she's not counting himself and the people. She's afraid of people, but as something abstract. Elite – now it is a collective term of groups with very different interests. And these groups are all more anxious, more nervous me remind you about their interests and more closely monitor other groups if they think that they go forward.

– A focus on the interests of who?

– What do you mean who? Their interest feels the media interest. But it's the rules of our system cannot openly describe politically their interests in any legal, loyal to the form, except in closed notes, closed cases, in private conversations in the presidential Administration. Therefore, these interests are not represented. And we have just a few exceptions, when such statements come from the establishment, for example, Ramzan Kadyrov. When he has interests, he spells them out loud. This also applies to ideology, and politicians, this particularly concerns budget. He says plainly: I insufficient budget subsidies, it is necessary to increase them. And gets the answer. The President, on the same or the next day calms and says that the interests may be satisfied. But generally speaking, the pressure of these unidentified interests growing, he demonstrated throughout the power system. After all, in a country very different levels of development and different levels of economic decline in different regions. The centre cannot clear them completely. So here Russia is increasingly becoming a field of struggle influential minority. No wonder, by the way, the topic of most, is so urgent 10 years ago, now recedes into the background, because it is the most painful need to collect. But really we are dealing with hidden conflicting ruling minorities who artificially while cut off from the field of presentation, representation through media. They do not have direct access to the media, though like controlling them.

So here is the process which I call the politicization. Is the politicization of the establishment. It comes from several sides. Not only on the part of powerful groups, but also from the center who is trying to pursue a policy different degrees of inconsistency. For example, he undertook to combat corruption, and begin planting of governors, Minister. And it does nothing to strengthen the consolidation of the elites, because they're saddled with the task of ensuring the loyalty of the population, its social queries with the falling revenues. It also politicizes and annoying the establishment. Yet again, this politicization hidden. It turns out that artificial climate. Somewhat similar to people with intracranial pressure, which differs from the blood pressure. In humans, normal pressure, and increased intracranial. But when he feels pressure, he can't see that, he's all right. This is about is we have, because we have the establishment removed from the possibility of communicating with the population. For the simple reason that we have paralyzed the media, and they are pushing all the time some artificial agenda: geopolitics, some enemies, Ukraine, Syria, Islam, or anything other than actual conflicts within the country. But this is an artificial situation and it's unstable.

By the way, is not associated with the hidden political activity of establishment of grass-roots activity, but it's scattered, it's usually tied to local problems: environmental problems, problems of individual industries, individual towns and cities. Actually this is quite a high level of activity, but he discommunication at once on two axes: the manifestations of this activity are not connected horizontally, and they are not connected vertically with the elites. There is a fairly high degree of social activity, which, as it is not visible. She doesn't even go out into the wide space of social networks, but it is. It turns out this deceptive picture.

– The second issue relates to major personnel changes that occurred this year. First, at the level of heads of regions went to the appointment of natives of spaclub. Then followed the nomination of relatively young managers and technocrats (Anton Vaino in the Administration of the President, the chief Executive officer in the Kaliningrad region is Senicheva recently. the Ministry of economic development). Of special note is the replacement Volodina Kiriyenko, who, of course, also a technocrat, but has historical links with the liberals. That is, a single line is not visible. What is it that is guided by President Putin in its personnel policy?

– First, this is not the first time. This is the shake-up of the human resources management scheme that has developed in the beginning of the third presidential term Putin has, so to speak, in posesorski period. Then, too, very much revised and changed the structure of the administration, staff and relationships with governors, and how to control elections and the state Duma. It should be understood, because if we don't see this perspective, we exaggerate the importance of the individual permutations. Just the previous wave have been generally unsuccessful. From the point of view of the President and his entourage did not quite stable administrative apparatus. After all the previous happened at the beginning of zero years and worked for approximately ten years. New model Postupalenko democracy 2012-2016 was in this sense more short-term. Volodin was certain bureaucratic achievement, but at the same time, its model of governance could not survive this election. The main indicator of the failure was due to the fact that the ideological mobilization has not passed the electoral mobilization. That is postkrymsky high degree of support failed to convert in the electoral.

– You mean a low turnout?


– And You think the state Duma elections for the government were critical of the high turnout?

– No, it's not. For the government an important indicator. Our government trusts are generally excessive different indicators: the ratings, the results of the elections. But at the same time, they can not see the fact that now the Duma have them selected by the minority and within this minority is dominated by bucetapelada regions. That is, it is very unstable not only politically, but also economically, because it dictates trade, a new type of administrative bargaining – we give you voice, and you give us a budget. This is happening from the 10-12 known regions – the republics of the North Caucasus, the Volga region. And in a loss of revenues this is a dangerous situation, she can at any moment to collapse. This, surely, was seen. Although this situation has kept the majority in the Duma, but the quality of the majority was different. And, in General, it was evaluated as a failure not only Volodina personally, and maybe not so much in the first place, Volodin, and how bad your entire model.

Crisis models emerged early in the first half of the year, when the primaries of "United Russia" did not go according to script, which was supposed. The governors broke to some extent this scenario, and broke not through malice, but because they want to control the regions to implement those decrees that they have no money. That is, there emerged a new situation, and I think that's why summer went very personnel intensive restructuring. The fact that it was improvisation, it is noticeable, for example, the case with Senichevym

Yeah, a couple of months and request back...

– It's scandalous. This, in my opinion, just was never in the Russian Federation. That is the person appointed, and it became clear almost immediately that he's in this area are incompetent. As they say, a good guard, but he just does not understand this business and afraid in some sense of the situation, afraid to follow, relatively speaking, Gaiser. Therefore, a new wave of arrival of the technocrats – it is not necessary to exaggerate, but it is associated with a simple goal of building some regular management of the scheme. The security forces are unable to build such a scheme. All who know the army know that this is not the place. So will line up a certain bureaucratic control scheme that needs to run regularly in a very crisis situation. That is built like a block, independent of those or other projects. Projects may change, but executives should not to break down. As I understand it, this idea of the appointment of the head of the AP and his Deputy.

– So you think that the arrival of Sergei Kiriyenko is not associated with the upcoming presidential election, and with a longer-term bet?

For the Kremlin it is not a long-term bet, and very vital, because the crisis continues. And the crisis that he does not have a street scene and media scene of conflict, for knowledgeable people is no less important. Because the crisis is economic, political, and moral in some extent in nature. So someone today, not in two years or five years, and today should be ready for new rounds of turbulence. The presidential election is a very important system, but the system today cannot afford to discard all the other problems and only deal with the presidential election. So you can not survive until the election. We have a few used to exaggerate the importance of such events for the elite establishment, but it was a time of fat years, when we can concentrate without much risk on one political topic. Today this cannot be done, because, say, the theme of the gap between regions imbalance between regions should not be delayed for the presidential election in two years. And such a lot of problems. I'm not talking about the international problems that we actively intervening in world politics, called to him, and now they should also be addressed. I do not think that the Kremlin is manic busy but the presidential election.

– The past year has seen significant changes in the power structures. In April, was created the national guard, headed by the former chief guard of Putin. About her first, talked a lot, and now almost do not remember. Another phenomenon of the year has been a clear strengthening of the role of the FSB concerning the interior Ministry and the Investigative Committee. Can these changes be linked to changes in the overall configuration of power, or are they completely Autonomous?

– A completely self-contained spheres have, of course, no. But we must understand that since there is no public political scene, the changes are not directly political changes do not necessarily lead to political results. I think it's reasonable to see this as an attempt to build a balance which can not. And when there is a release of personnel from the FSO, of course, we can consider this as an attack of security forces, but it will be mythology. Maybe we are talking about cleaning FSO soon and finding a place for people to leave.

We have every power Ministry is always trying to grow, given the hardware circuit. Is the hardware competition. Now it's more competition for declining resources – financial, etc. the FSB is unacceptable closely involved in business, economic activity, and this struggle is often political in nature. And inside this struggle goes even spontaneous staffing process. Since we have covered the usual personnel elevators, the young power mid-level officials have only one option of the promotion: they need to assemble a dossier on the chiefs. And they pick, say, corruption and other things either by their superiors or the authorities of the neighboring law enforcement agencies – is also an interesting point, this cross-pollination, because to investigate your head more dangerous than to dig under the other head of the Central Board. And these processes are not controlled directly from the Kremlin, they go to some extent from below. They are also connected to the new boom of minorities, that minorities in the new environment are forced to look for some unconventional ways to promote their interests.

– And the creation of the National guard what is the reason?

I know it's 25 years of watching this process attempts to create a National guard. For the first time this was discussed in the autumn of 1991. The creation of the Russian guard – it was a very popular topic. And even, in my opinion, was the decrees of the President which were not performed then. This idea really connected, in my opinion, on the one hand, with attempts to build at least one working field strong vertical, rising straight to the President, – political power hierarchy. And on the other hand, it is motivated by a variety of things, including an attempt to dilute the power concentrate that occurred in Chechnya. Because, of course, Putin seems abnormal concentration level of personal armed forces, the President of Chechnya. What will Putin do? He can integrate these forces into some kind of structure. And I think when you create a National guard one of the motives was the inclusion in it of the Chechen forces. Remember a year ago, the power demonstrations in Chechnya, armed men in the stadiums – all this could not please the Kremlin. Here are several reasons, and while we're dealing with some of the resulting chaos. The system is not built yet, there is a reorganization, bickering, payment of salaries. We remember that there was an unsuccessful reform of the interior Ministry in Medvedev's presidency. Maybe the National guard has and this cause, too – the illegal child of an unsuccessful Medvedev's police reform.

– Question from another sphere. This year we continued the fight for the sacred nature of spiritual braces (in different interpretations). Plus more revived virus denunciation. Vigilant Patriotic citizens wrote to various authorities, those willing to respond. On the other hand, a new phenomenon became public resistance from influential artists and intellectuals, who seem to ran out of patience. In your opinion, will the resistance increase? And in this conflict the authorities would behave?

– The power here has not yet the solution. Because she made this process, I would say, encourage grassroots activity that should represent the majority opinion. Here a important point that all of these many reactionary initiatives in recent years – because they went under the flag of the people's opinions of the majority. And found out two things. Firstly, it is not the majority opinion, but this opinion is again a minority, sometimes very small – some groups of activists, some reactionary public figures, some of the deputies who sometimes just freaks.

And secondly, it turned out that all together formed some kind of suffocating atmosphere in the country, which flows into a variant of the atmosphere plays playwright Ostrovsky, where some ignorant people any excuse to cry and with that cry actually taken state power. And the government loses the initiative, they really lost. It was such a strange thing that if in the past, the Kremlin was proud of his initiative, the fact that he was always ahead of his agenda to the public agenda, now in front of the Kremlin run by some very strange people who intimidate other people require the adoption of reforms that return us to some artificial past that, again, they came up with. That is, there is a situation when the Kremlin had to react to small shouts, social and ideological risky shouts, and is always lagging, always in the rear.

And in the end got tired of that cultural elite, because of course, the atmosphere used in competition in the culture budget, competition in science, decomposes the University and academic ethics under the guise of fighting for an unprecedented patriotism. I think next year we will see this, I'd say velvet revolt of the cultural and scientific groups against so - and- so - called - "village of the dictatorship."

– And the Kremlin-how this will treat?

– The Kremlin can't afford to go back – I don't know where, 150 years ago. Plunge the country into an atmosphere of McCarthyism. Indeed in America the era of Senator McCarthy was somewhat similar, it has led to defamation of the intelligentsia and the time lag of America from the Soviet Union because it was made to suspect the liberals and intellectuals generally in the betrayal. The way we are. After all, we're not going ahead of the entire planet in science. And we have an open border, people will leave. We just encourage thus the loss of their minded groups, groups that have something valuable to offer, including in the field of import substitution.

So I think here we hit a roadblock with this policy, and in 2016 began the reverse reaction. We are present at the beginning of the reaction of active cultural and social groups at the beginning of the resistance, the resistance of this pogrom atmosphere that has developed with impunity for several years. By the way, this atmosphere had two bad consequences. First, there was the temptation of law enforcement agencies to initiate criminal cases on trivial grounds, thereby improving the statistics of fighting crime. And we see it all the time. Second, there is a phenomenon of unpunished activism. This phenomenon has also think of power is dangerous, and they begin to slow down these voluntary activists who are trying to take over the functions of the state up to the violence. The state will have to fight.

Talked Alexander Ivakhnik


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