The debate about the future somehow revolve around the tendencies of potential successors to the current President. Miss, what rule they have not the moon, and in Russia.
Domestic futures experiencing their finest hour. With the fact that Vladimir Putin has "no vision of the future", I agree, it seems, everything. But fresh predictions, depicting a post-Putin Russia, you can make a thick volume. Even try I will not disassemble them here one by one.
I note only that they are divided into two categories.
The first is the advice not to hurry with the change of regime. And then comes the Bulk or somebody else is worse and impose Nazism or, at least, will bring down the ruble.
Second — what's the hurry just need, otherwise the mode will completely rot and collapse together with the country. Well, the new power, whatever it was, after all, is cuter than the old one. And even if not, better a horrible end than horror without end.
That those and other tips are addressed to the intellectuals, from which nothing depends, is its humor, which we'll talk another time. Anyway, this boiling intellectual passions are often diametrically opposed assessment of the personal and political inclinations of Alexei Navalny — whether democratic and free, whether dictatorial nationalist.
Although whatever they were, to rule over Russia him away. Yes, he was the first in the twenty-first century began we have not clowny, and to seriously fight for power, and this is its inalienable political merit of the country. But the struggle to win the long.
However, it's not about that. If Russia really ripe for democracy, self-governance, world of openness, free and humane capitalism, who's gonna stop her? Any intelligent leader will not to spit against the wind and try to head the movement, which obviously will not be able to prevent it.
The catch is that none of these wonderful things Russia today is not adapted. And our current regime does not help her a little to prepare for their arrival. Name at least one action that even indirectly and unintentionally brings coming of freedom, self-government, openness and modernity. There is no such? Here is the answer to those who say that we must have patience and a bit of everything will all settle itself.
Remember that Putin was once headed by Russia under the slogan of the revival of the Central government, humiliated and ruined regional warlords, oligarchs, gangsters and off the chain bureaucracy. The wave of authoritarianism arose not from scratch, at the whim of a new leader, and given them security officers. It meets the broad public needs. Russia was ready to such course, although didn't know how far he'll go.
And now, almost twenty years later, we see authoritarian politics broke all the nuts, described a circle and brought the country back to a feudal mess. Of course, this is not a literal repetition of what had already happened. But the vertical control over what is happening in the country now clearly weaker than a few years ago, and the power of Vladimir Putin only looks like an absolute.
I'm not even about Chechnya and not about the "Rosneft", although she and the other says a lot about the current state of Affairs. From Moscow to most to the hinterland people of all classes planted on the hooks — they somehow depend on what is conventionally called "government". But everyone knows that at any moment some state click is to attack, to Rob, to take away property, to sue and put. And in the center, and on the ground enforcement-commercial clans of war of the feudal type, suit each other of ambushes and fighting for the right to strip the tax-paying people.
But maybe it's so ugly preparing for democracy? Learned people came up with the theory about the alleged "sleepers" we have democratic institutions, from the village Council to the state Duma. Supposedly now all these institutions, of course, dummy, but in any moment will be filled with real public figures, "Wake up" — and we together open our eyes, in a democratic country.
Now imagine how this can actually be. For example, political freedom somehow magically recovered and all of the people's Assembly, up to the highest, all the mayors and all the governors again be elected. What will happen? Democracy? No, the dictatorship of the feudal lords. With the exception of the capitals and a few centres where possible options, all elected offices will take those, and so thrives today. Maybe the debt before the voters will turn them to good works? No, these current people will remain themselves and use new posts for the one that you know how mutual bickering and robbery of his subjects.
In the country recognized private property — neither small nor large. Almost no independent of the Treasury business. Absent any Autonomous justice. Giant conglomerate gnawing control detective agencies choking and declares illegal any business and even management activities, if not remove it a gain.
The guiding layer is so homogeneous and impregnated with anti-social spirit, what to expect from the top nekomercheskoy change now no reason. Any structurally configured apical coalition, just not from whom to pick. Any democratic concessions they will be to suit your needs, and free enterprise they are not interested — why produce something when you can attack and take away?
To disturb this harmony can only tax estates, increasingly indignant parasitism tops. Only the irresistible pressure from below is able to reason at least individual units of the item. The demands of the lower classes today are quite narrow. Outraged by the corruption, cynicism of the state machine and the increase of poverty, they, in General, does not require the termination of wars, little interested in the giant military spending and not rely on the elected structures, and in the General election, believing them to be fiction. It is rather a claim on a firm and fair hand than to self-government and self-development.
Of course, not all the voices merge into one chorus. There are those who cherish real, and not overbearing rights and freedoms, and not all are indifferent to democracy, based on citizens and not on the item grabbers. But are in the minority. And most of the demands will be louder to demand things simpler: respect for their small property, paternalistic concerns, in any fair justice and the suppression of feudal perversions. That is, things out of the ordinary set of the slogans of authoritarian rule.
If you do not think about what rules would be good and right to organize in the country, and about what she is really ready, because more to it. I'm not saying that it is necessary to arrange the casting away of the future dictator and advance to pray for him. I'm not a fan of dictatorships. But analysis of the nuances of the inner world Navalny, or any other political figure is almost completely useless for understanding what can happen in the country.
We must realize that Russia is once again in the feudal impasse and the way out is unlikely to be quick, short and inexpensive. Some newly autocracy will probably occur by itself and if it doesn't allow you to realize your full potential, can become the first step on the way to the exit.
Ask, and who will not allow her to roam?
The people, the society — call it what you want. Anyone who wants (or will want) something more than a new leader. The last word is always with the citizens. That they silently agreed with everything twenty years, does not mean that it will be silent for another twenty.
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