In 2013, the Russian economy in the generalized terms of "Gross domestic product" (GDP) in comparable prices reached its maximum in twenty-first century. But then came the dramatic events associated with a massive drop in oil prices on the world market and the introduction of large-scale sanctions against Russia in response to annexation of Crimea, Russia's actions in Eastern Ukraine and expected Russia's intervention in the last election campaign on presidential elections of the USA in 2016, These measures, which are gradually being introduced from mid-March 2014, restricted the access of Russian banks and companies to the EU capital market and raised the Russian commodity sector, aviation and defense industry. Was also compiled personal lists of Russian citizens who are banned from countries that imposed sanctions. It was announced that persons belonging to these capitals and assets, if any are found, will be frozen.

Of course, for the country as a whole the most potent negative factors – a decline in oil and gas prices – the basis of Russian exports, and associated prices of other Russian commodity goods, excommunication Russian exporters of raw materials and cheap foreign loans that make it very difficult for them accumulated foreign debt restructuring and technological development.

These circumstances adversely affected the Russian economy and its prospects. An additional factor, do not inspire optimism was the beginning of the end of September 2015 the Russian armed forces military operation in Syria to support the Assad regime with unclear goals and – this is important – with questionable strategic perspectives.

By the beginning of 2016, it became clear that the Patriotic sentiment in Russia began to decline, and almost simultaneously with the Russian economy. Clearly designates the features of the next ensuing financial and economic crisis.

For the government particularly unpleasant was that the crisis occurred in the middle of the presidential term when elections for election (re-election) the presidential term remained at 2 years. Moreover, the crisis occurred mainly because of the Russian, i.e. internal reasons.

The previous crisis of 2008-2009, which affected many countries, can be attributed to fundamental defects of the global financial system. In extreme cases, lack of experience in presidential matters, the new President of the DM. Medvedev. Although the Prime Minister responsible for the economy at the time was Vladimir Putin; therefore, blaming the President automatically had to rebuke and Prime Minister.

A new crisis, which continues to develop in Russia in 2014 is largely down to our home-grown invention. Even oil prices are somehow helpful suddenly grew several times, which suggests the manipulation of transnational corporations in response to the actions of the Russian authorities.

And in these conditions was to do the high-ranking Russian officials responsible for the maintenance of high presidential popularity rating of the incumbent President?

First, they rashly declared that Russia is no financial crisis at all. Came even the prohibition to utter that dirty word "crisis". And about the anti-Russian sanctions many of our "patriots" ended courses of improvement of qualification on lake Seliger, in all media began to shout that sanctions our country will only get better. Allegedly, she finally focuses, will seek internal reserves (almost by M. Zhvanetsky) and soon breaks out into the open leading the pace of growth, technological progress and a high quality of life of citizens.

However, these people were very nervous when they were asked a simple question: if Russian sanctions are so useful that prevented the government and the President himself to enter their analogues, for example, for the next five-year plan? What prevented to make it so useful for country-Kiri?

There is no answer.

Then, in early 2016 after finishing a disappointing development of the Russian economy in 2015, it became clear that only one waving flags is not enough – you need to react more or less reliably lighting situation. Especially living outside Moscow the people by this time for yourself.

Do you think I chose from this dilemma "more or less"? That's right – "less"!

Said a small crisis is still there, which in comparable prices, GDP in 2015 is really decreased, but only by 3.7%, while the decline in industrial production was 3.4%. This, according to senior officials, quite a bit, about 2 times less than the depth of the fall in 2009, So pretty much everything is fine.

Whether so it actually, will try it out right now.

 

Analysis of the generalized parameters of the Russian economy

Most interesting is that this would be easy. But you have to use some non traditional methods of analysis. So first a few words about their merits.

At the beginning of 2016 was published the monograph "Oil trends of the Russian economy" [1] devoted to analysis of Russian economy over a 15-year period 2000-2014 it addressed the trends of key external (course $, the volume of Russian exports and imports, capital outflow, PPP) and domestic (GDP, GDP deflator, consumer price index, the value of monetary aggregates, income and expenditure of the state budgets, socio-economic characteristics) macro parameters of the Russian economy.

Total number of considered trend of about a hundred. Moreover, it is not just a mathematical abstraction, and economically feasible addiction. Therefore, the characteristic of the relative value of deviations of rows of real and calculated values in a 15-year period amounted to a few percent.

Discovered a strong positive correlation between Russian GDP and incomes from the export of Russian oil. This is because the current Russian financial system and a sector of the economy and public life, at first glance are not directly related to oil production and refining, however, is very much "tied" to oil. In the period of 2000-2014 the oil dependency of the Russian economy was not less than 90%.

The second important conclusion was that without the oil backup or even with the stabilization in oil prices the growth rate of the existing Russian economy in comparable prices will not exceed 1.1 to 1.4% per year. It is approximately 2 times lower than the worldwide, not to mention the Chinese.

What we are now witnessing.

The procedure for determining oil trends included 3 stages:

1. Definition of correlation correlation between oil revenues and Russia's GDP expressed in dollars (because traditionally the price of oil is expressed in US dollars);
2. Establishing the correlation ratio between the values of the macro parameters, on the one hand, and dollar GDP and current time. This is the so-called "intermediate trend";
3. The formation of oil trends in the replacement of a dollar of GDP on revenues from oil exports (see p.1).

This article will only be used intermediate the trends from [1], and for a very small number of macro parameters (phase 2). But this is quite enough to estimate the depth of the crisis 2014-2016

The fact that this topic deserves careful consideration, as can be seen from Fig. Of 1.2, which presents data on the dynamics of Russia's GDP, expressed not in rubles and in US dollars.

In 2014-2016 there is a strong decrease of dollar GDP, even more than in 2009

It is clear that the patriots are the enemy: the dollar – not the decree! Nothing, him, green, to navigate.

Of course, not necessary. But to think, why it happened, still not stopping. And why Russian economic statistics would not acknowledge some of the irony of this situation?

   

Fig.1. Nominal dollar GDP

 

Fig.2. The rate of change of nominal dollar GDP

 

This has several reasons.

First, after 2014, to put it mildly, a refined method of determining the GDP. Following is the literal explanation of Rosstat in this regard. Please concentrate and read carefully all these, and subsequent, bureaucratic phrase.

"Data from 2014, include changes associated with the introduction of the international methodology for the assessment of the housing services produced and consumed by homeowners; estimate consumption of fixed capital based on its current market value; the harmonization of data on exports and imports with balance of payments data compiled under the methodology of the latest edition of the "guidelines of the IMF balance of payments and international investment position" (BPM6); updating of data during the development of base tables "Expenses-release" in 2011, enabling the evaluation of services for domestic workers (domestic workers), as well as the implementation of the System of national accounts 2008, on accounting of results of scientific research and development and weapons systems.

In addition, since 2014, to consider the data on the Crimean Federal district".

When the authors of [1] learned about the alleged change in methodology of calculating GDP, they understand that statistics can be so distorted that they are difficult to detect patterns. Therefore, the cause of monograph [1] was not only the completion of a 15-year period of observation of the dynamics of macroparameters, but also the natural desire to use comparable data.

And now caring Rosstat continues to warn: "the Data differ from totals in previous years the magnitude of changes associated with the implementation of international methodology of evaluation of the housing services produced and consumed by homeowners; estimate consumption of fixed capital, based on its current market value; the harmonization of data on exports and imports with balance of payments data, is developed on the methodology of the 6th edition "Manual of the IMF balance of payments and international investment position" (BPM6); updating of data during the development of base tables "Expenses-release" in 2011, the inclusion of the assessment of services for domestic workers (domestic workers) ".

Simply put, now included in GDP prices of services of domestic servants and utilities. The data on the Crimean Federal district, almost nothing changed: the gross regional product of this County – yet less than 0.2% of Russia's GDP.

 

To avoid misunderstanding, should explain, where did the figures for these coefficients.

When working on the monograph [1] was built a data base on time series of macro parameters of the Russian economy. In particular, the dynamics of nominal GDP. We used data of Rosstat. Now, looking at the data the Federal state statistics service for 2011-2016 reveals that they are different – the technique of definition of GDP was changed.

Someone naively say that these changes have affected the data only for the current decade, which seems to be logical. But someone will also notice that these changes (i.e. increasing) apply to the last presidential term.

But there is no limit to perfection!

In [2] States: "From 2017, Rosstat switched to a new classification of economic activities (ОКВЭД2) and the new classification of products (ОКПД2) – full counterparts of classifiers used by the national statistical service of the European economic community. The transition ensured the comparability of economic statistics of Russia and other countries."

And further: "the transition to the new classifications were accompanied by clarifying the data for 2016, and for comparative purposes have been restated and figures for 2015, the Conversion significantly altered the previous picture of the current crisis. It turned out that the drop in industrial production in 2015 amounted to 3.4%, and 0.8% was entirely offset in 2016, when the industry grew more than 1.1% and 1.3%. Last month's decline was the January 2016 instead of October. The revaluation of the GDP showed that the recession was much less profound than expected in 2015, the decline in the economy was 2.8%, 3.7%, and in 2016 only 0.2%."

Here's how to increase the GDP! It turns out, you can simply change the method of its determination.

It opens bright prospects. Supplements from households and utilities already put in. Now you can still add something. For example, have made You a wife the soup – the contribution to GDP. Walk You neighbor's dog or look after someone else's cat – another contribution to GDP. Etc., etc.

Captures the spirit of the brilliant prospects, as the country's economy can develop in this way! For example, in the UK have already offered to take into account in GDP the services of prostitutes.

Correct way go, comrades! And if we go to the digital economy, then progress will be at all conclusive. However, with digital sausage can cause problems.

However, we begin our analysis.

In [1] obtained the following simple expression for the trend of the ruble, Russian GDP:

 

 

In 2000-2014, the RMS value of the misalignments of the real and calculated [by equation (1)] GDP was 2.4%. It's over 15 years!

Using (1) adjustments to the methodology for determining GDP to take into account very simply in the right part of (1) is V(t) substitute V(t)/ω_d, the left side is W(t) store W(t)/ω_r. Ie, simply put, to recalculate all the old numbers on dollar denominated GDP of the previous methods. Then

 

 

If the results of the calculations in (2) represent graphically, we get Fig. 4.

 

Fig. 4. The nominal ruble, Russia's GDP ($rate – in the 15th year trend)

 

In 2000-2014 all right, but after 2014 graphics "collapsed."

It happened because of the formed 15-year trend has dropped the value to $ 2015-2016 (Fig. 5; red line – trend of course $).

 

Fig.5. The average annual exchange rate of the dollar

In[1] the trend rate $ presented in the form of

In 2000-2014, the RMS value of the misalignments of the real and calculated [by equation (2)] values $ rate also increased by 2.4%.

In the new conditions should be written

If you also take into account the deviation from the course of $ from his 15-year trend (the magnitude of these deviations in 2015-2016 quite significant – about 25% of the trend), we obtain the graphs in Fig. 6, which show good agreement between the calculated and actual data throughout the range 2000-2016.

 

Fig. 6. The nominal ruble, Russia's GDP

 

Therefore, we can conclude that the trends of the macroeconomic parameters continue to work successfully, but adjusted for additional control.

Now one comment for these fans to direct that, maybe read the article.

Trends of macro parameters is a reflection of the objective laws of functioning of the economy. To artificially change the macro parameters, of course, possible, but this should be done with great care – in the medium or long term it may result in new problems. As said a character in a famous film: "War is not poker that you can declare whenever you want. War is war!"

The subject of the statements is different, but the substance of thought is correct. For future economic Alexandrov Macedonian to catch it very helpful.

Of course, the artificial overvaluation of the $ a restless Rosstat, which is now subordinated to the Ministry of economic development (Ministry of economy), a direct relationship has not. The rate of $ raised in the interests of raw material monopolies and charge high-ranking officials, which are thus trying to solve their problems encountered after weaning from cheap foreign loans and the introduction of personal sanctions.

But such a further appreciation of the $ in parallel and contributed to the embellishment of the statistics on GDP, which can be seen from Fig. 6.

Now on to the fun part – the determination of dynamic changes of Russia's GDP, measured in nominal and constant prices. It is the dynamics of this parameter will allow to determine the degree of development or, on the contrary, the degradation of our economy.

As the base year, in comparable prices, which can be expressed in GDP for all other years, it is convenient to take 2013 of Course, you can make any of the conclusions qualitatively do not change. But 2013 is interesting because it is far distant from 2017, and also the fact that in 2013 the Russian economy was most prosperous. Therefore, 2013 – now this is an analogue of 1913, whose results are in the last century compared to the achievements not only of Russia but of the Soviet Union.

Another remark for convenience only: we will continue to assess the dynamics not only of the Russian VVR, and the total gross regional product W₂₀₁₃(t) produced in the 83 subjects of the Russian Federation. Ie in modern Russian with the exception of the Crimean Federal district. In other words, in Russia 2013, It had virtually no impact on the results of the analysis.

In addition, we expect W₂₀₁₃(t) by the previous procedure. This approach will allow to identify changes of GDP that is called – in its pure form, i.e. without any distortion. And such changes will characterize the real dynamics of the Russian economy.

For conversion of nominal values of GDP at constant required values accumulated since 2000, the GDP deflator D(t):

      

In [1] definition of the value of the ruble GDP deflator is produced by means of an auxiliary methodological technique – using the deflator nominal GDP expressed in dollars, i.e., dollar deflator.

The trend for the accumulated values of deflator dollar GDP, is the following:

In the period of 2000-2014 the RMS value of the misalignments of the real and calculated [by equation (6)] values of the deflator was 1.4%.

The accumulated values of deflator is the product of the values of all differential (annual) deflators d_U(t) in the period 2000-2000+t.

Subject to minor corrections of data for 2014, produced in early 2015, the ratio has this format:

Thus the RMS value of the misalignments of the real and calculated [by equation (7)] the accumulated values of deflator fell to 1.3%.

It should be emphasized that technical adjustment has nothing to do with manipulating values with macro parameters. Procedure refinement was used very often as in previous years, and was of a purely technical nature.

I will not distract readers charts, which presents the comparison of real and calculated data of dollar deflator. They are not informative, because the real and the estimated data when the average value of the misalignments of 1.3% to almost merge with each other. So instead of 2 different lines You will see one fused line.

Taking into account (7) incremental (year by year) the value of the ruble, GDP is recorded in the form

 

These data are graphically represented in Fig. 7.

 

Fig.7. The annual deflator of the ruble, Russia's GDP

 

The root mean square value of deviations from each other the real and the estimated ratio (7) accumulated values of deflator is 1.3% and the maximum relative misalignment – of 2.27%.

If now the relation (8) to calculate the differential value of the ruble GDP deflator in 2015-2016 and then to compare these figures with the official, you get a table. 1.

 

Table 1

 

Note: in 2008-2009, the calculated values of differential deflators are virtually identical with the official figures. Also found their match in 2016 And here is the data for 2015 differ quite substantially – by 8%.

Again for better understanding: the average value of the error over 15 years at 1.3%, a maximum of 2.27%, almost a full match in 2016 And with all this strong – strongest for such mathematical models is the mismatch in 2015 8%

It may be considered as the fact that the manipulation of statistical data.

Therefore, in the subsequent estimates as d(15) value will be used 1,1726.

In [1] obtained the following expression for W trend₂₀₁₃(t):

Taking into account the technical adjustments it has changed a bit:

The standard size of relative misalignments of the calculated values and actual data for the period 2000-2016. amounted to 1.3%. This indicates that the value of annual GDP in 2015, most likely, was close to 1,1726.

The results of calculations of the ratio (10) and matching them with the actual data shown in Fig. 8.

Now it is possible for the actual data to calculate the rate of change in GDP expressed in comparable prices, 2013 – Fig. 9.

 

Fig.8. Russia's GDP expressed in comparable prices, 2013 (the previous method of determining GDP, 83 subjects of the Russian Federation)

 

Fig.9. Real change ruble, Russia's GDP expressed in comparable prices

 

It is seen that the depth of the fall in real GDP in 2015 exceeds 10.3%, which is much higher than the official 2.8% or 3.7 percent. As well as a similar magnitude of decline in real GDP in 2009, by the Way, this corresponds with the data on changes in GDP, expressed in United States dollars.

And then we get the following: the financial and economic crisis 2014-2016 are more dangerous to the Russian economy than the crisis of 2009.

First, because he's actually deeper, and secondly, because he continues for the 3rd year and, thirdly, because to hope for positive factors in the world economy on the way out of this crisis is not necessary; how else would not become worse.

How can I check this conclusion?

It is best to use comparable data for other parameters characterizing the Russian economy, the values of which change in the methodology of nominal GDP is almost not affected.

It is also desirable that these parameters are well perceived by a large number of people. For example, you can use the average calculated salary or the average monthly income of Russian citizens.

But with the income of the citizens – the problem: it can be distorted by a new method. So that leaves the average salary of Z₂₀₁₃(t), expressed in comparable prices.

In [1] obtained the following expression for the trend Z₂₀₁₃(t):

After making technical adjustments 2014 according to the latest observations and subsequent inclusion of data for 2015-2016, expressed in 2013 prices using the accumulated values of the consumer price index (not the GDP deflator!), Z₂₀₁₃(t) changes a little:

The magnitude of the root mean square relative error estimated and real values of Z,₂₀₁₃(t) 2000-2016 he is 5,18% – Fig.10.

If the actual data to calculate the rate of change of the average wage, expressed in constant prices of 2013, we get the graph in Fig. 11.

It turns out that in 2015 relative to 2014, the decline in real wages made up 7.24%. This figure is consistent with the data of the Ministry of labor [3], who appreciated the decline in real wages at 8-9% and almost matched the decline in real GDP.

Which is perfectly logical.

 

Fig. 10. Average accrued monthly wages, in comparable prices, 2013

 

Fig.11. Real average monthly accrued wages in comparable prices

 

For the 2014-2016 crisis years, real GDP declined by 11% relative to 2013 Is about 1.4 times more than in crisis 2009.

The difference between the calculated (11,016%) and official (3,7%) figures is more than 7.3%. In absolute terms (in 2016, nominal GDP is about 86 trillion. RUB) – about 6.3 trillion. RUB

In regard, I would like to ask the Ministers of the Russian Federation and deputies of the state Duma: as You develop and adopt laws on state budgets? How are economic policy priorities, when there is a break in 6.3 trillion. RUB? And what is the quality of Your budget projections?

And fans of manipulation of statistics can suggest the following.

Understand a simple thing: all the macroeconomic parameters, not only has its own story, but related. Their values cannot be artificially changed, as you wish: it will be immediately evident by the deformation of dynamic statistical series.

So You still need to work a lot. Start, for example, the study of the classical literature on this question, which addresses some of the technology of manipulating data and facts.

    

Notes for the future author future dystopian novel "2024"

When writing the previous section I have all the time had any idea where it was, somewhere had already read it.

Then I remembered – so it's a famous George Orwell's novel "1984" which he wrote in 1949.

Let us briefly recall its contents.

The novel tells about the state of Oceania, which fought on the peripheries of their country in turn with the other 2 big States Eurasia or Eastasia. But fought not because I wanted something to win, but mainly to keep the tension of the situation in the country.

The fact that Oceania was ruled by a party Ingsoc (INGSOC), led by the Elder Brother, who was the sole leader of the party. The approval of its sole power began in 1960 for 14-15 years before the described in the novel events. Moreover, Ingsoc were divided into internal and external party. The inner party was closest to his Elder brother.

The omnipresent big Brother personified Ingsoc, his portraits were constantly depicted on posters and telecrane devices incorporating the television to promote with a video camera to monitor the party members. Engsoc demanded complete submission of the people – the mental, moral and physical. The purpose of Ingsoc was the political control and the power itself.

Deeds of war was in charge of the Ministry of Peace, security law enforcement and prosecution of thought-criminals – the Ministry of love, and the falsification of history, mass media, propaganda, and writing primitive literature for citizens – Ministry of truth. The fourth pillar of the state – the Ministry of plenty, responsible for the distribution of scarce resources remaining after the satisfaction of military needs.

The protagonist of the novel Winston Smith, a 39-year-old man, from a young age he worked in the Ministry of Truth in the records Department and his duties included making changes to the documents that contained facts contrary to party propaganda. Changed not only the current data but also historical data for what to embellish dynamics and identify development.

The Ministry of Truth is engaged in a continuous falsification of various historical information (statistical data, historical facts) at all levels sensitization of the population: media, books, education, arts, sports.

"...Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book fixed pattern rewritten, every statue and street and building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And this process is not interrupted for a single day, even for a minute. The story stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the party is always right. I know, of course, that the past is falsified, but it would never be possible to prove it, even when I did the falsification myself. As soon as she committed, the evidence disappear."

On telecrane, the production was extremely exaggerated, or even invented to indicate an ever-growing economy.

In Orwell's dystopian economy existed only by war and for war. Main idea: without war, thanks to technological advances, comes the overproduction of goods, ideological, undermining, resentment and, eventually, a revolution and a change of elites. Therefore, in order to preserve his personal power rulers waged an endless war whose main goal was the destruction of resources and the direction of thought of the population just to survive. Of course, winning such a war, in principle, could not be, small successes (represented, naturally, as a key victory) gave way to small losses and so on to infinity.

North Africa, Middle East and Southeast Asia were disputed territories, for the possession of which fought 3 superpowers. These areas are constantly moving from one country to another, as none of the States could not achieve victory.

Therefore, another key Ministry Oceania is the Ministry of Peace, which dealt exclusively with the war.

In General, if you read the novel "1984" there are interesting Parallels with modern reality. Well, at least that function of the Ministry of Truth yet not concentrated in one Ministry, and distributed to different ministries and departments. But on the other hand, this is bad, because the misrepresentation involved a large number of people.

In this connection it may be recalled that from 2015 Russia is conducting a military operation in Syria. The stated purpose in the fight against ISIS and support for the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Although it is clear that the real objectives of military operations are quite different: here the obvious interests of Gazprom ("Turkish stream") and the desire to show themselves to the world active fighter against terrorism.

But the possible introduction of zones of de-escalation of the Syrian conflict involving the actual introduction in Syria of different zones of influence negates one of the stated strategic objectives. In General, it turns out that Russia is mired in the Syrian conflict with questionable prospects out of it.

But in the media we continue, waving his arms, to tell you about a substantial military successes in Syria. As there threshed bombs and missiles militants. This tells us numerous journalists, who with bulging eyes show different video sequences, from which it follows that the Russian military in Syria are only concerned about how someone to provide humanitarian aid or something to clear.

And other professionals with the same bulging eyes, waving his arms on television, loud tell Russian citizens about the numerous and undeniable, in their opinion, the military successes.

Even the Minister of defence joined this exciting process. He recently said that during the Russian military operation in Syria were liberated territory in 503 223 thousand square kilometers [4].

But from the reference books known: the area of Syria – about 185 thousand square kilometers, that is about 2.7 times less than the territory, the release of which we were told by the Minister of defence.

But let's not nitpick. Perhaps again, his military clerks messed something up, forgot to put a comma in the number or added an extra zero to the left of the decimal point. Or, perhaps, sunk key on the keyboard.

As they say, this is not important. Well, a few thousand square miles more, a few thousand less. But with humans in mind not some Syrian square kilometers, and tens of billions of Russian rubles or, for lack of a better phrase, hated American dollars – he could not navigate.

Therefore, at a General level of competence of the Russian officials could do is not pay attention.

Of course, if not other strange facts, for which, however, is not required to operate some formulas or models as in the previous economic section.

Everything will be very simple, purely military, "one-two".

According to "Interfax," August 25, 2017 the chief of the main operations Directorate of the General staff of the armed forces of the Russian Federation Sergey rudskoy said: since the beginning of the Russian operation in Syria on September 30, 2015, aviation, aerospace forces have caused about 90 thousand hits and made more than 28 thousand sorties [5].

It is "time". And now there will be two.

Again, according to "Interfax," August 25, 2017 head of the Main intelligence Directorate (GRU) of the General staff of armed forces Colonel-General Igor Korobov said: in Syria there are more than 9 thousand militants of the terrorist group "Islamic state" [6].

But earlier information on the same question from RIA "Novosti", 27 April 2016 [7]: according to the chief of the GRU of the General staff of the armed forces of the Russian Federation Sergey Afanasyev, the "Islamic state" in the middle East are fighting about 33 thousand. The number of bands of this group in the region is approximately 33 thousand fighters, including in Iraq 19 thousand in Syria 14 million people.

And earlier, in 2015, the chief of the Main operations Directorate – Deputy chief of the General staff Colonel-General Andrey Kartapolov reported that the extremist group "Islamic state" includes from 30 to 80 thousand. "According to various estimates, from 30 to 80 thousand. Because, as usual, truth is somewhere in between, let's say about 40-50 thousand", – he said.

By the way, recently consulting company Soufan Group estimated the number of foreign mercenaries in the ranks of the terrorist organization "Islamic state". It turned out that most foreigners come to Russia Russia. According to Soufan Group, ISIS are fighting 3417 Russians. On the second line Saudi Arabia – 3224 the person in third place Jordan – 3 thousand, followed by Tunisia – 2926 people and France – 1910 citizens [8].

Even if you ignore the data, various foreign consulting firms, focusing exclusively on the evaluation of the GRU, and, without further ADO, to use only the arithmetic, we get the following.

The number of beats VKS RF – 90 thousand And the number of warring in Syria, the militants of the IG – 10-15 thousand.

In other words, the 1st action of the IG have 6-9 attacks videoconferencing. Even if we take the upper estimate of the number of militants is 40-50 thousand, one militant has 2 air strike.

Note: here, nothing is invented, all the source numbers correspond to those of the General staff of the armed forces.

There are 4 possible explanations of these figures.

1. The effectiveness of videoconferencing is very small.
2. The militants propagated with almost the same speed with which they destroy videoconferencing.
3. Videoconferencing does not beat ISIS, but on other objects and other people.
4. Jointly implementing paragraphs 1 to 3.

This turns the war in Syria, it is the General trend.

And here again it is appropriate to repeat the phrase: "War is not poker that you can declare whenever you want. War is war!"

Now, remember how light a military operation in Syria, Russian media, how does this branch of the Ministry of Truth. Many readers, unless, of course, want to slightly open your eyes, can see much more interesting and fun.

It is clear that the development of the crisis phenomena in the country, all branches of the Ministry of Truth will continue to be strengthened. Therefore, arises the difficult question "When should be expecting this?". In other words, the question of forecasting future crises.

To do this, try to apply different ways, sometimes quite witty. But for rough estimations it is possible to do quite simply, by building the following simple graph (Fig. 12).

The horizontal axis is the year of the crisis.
On the vertical axis – the time interval from the previous crisis (the years). Zero number is 1985, the beginning of the Soviet perestroika.

The interval between 1985 and 1998, 13 years between 1998 and 2008, 10 years between 2008 and 2015 is 7 years.

 

Fig. 12. Dynamics of Russian crises

I.e. the time interval from crisis to crisis, each time is reduced to 3 years.

After 2021 graph crosses the horizontal axis. Ie, the country bursts into a continuous crisis.

It is clear that it is not so simple. But still somehow annoying.

By the way, judging by the intensification bustle of some famous personalities, the next crisis may happen before 2021.

But in any case, to 2024 in the country will be actual reformation of public administration, and – not cosmetic, but with a substantial change of the Constitution.

And judging by some signs, the preparation for this has already started.

So writers also need to start working on a new version of the dystopian novel with the simple working title "2024".

With a selection of actual data we will help them: because the Ministry of Truth has been active not only in the crisis 2015, but in 2016-2017 And will no doubt be very active and in 2018

Therefore, the novel "2024" will be interpreted by many readers with interest and understanding.

List of sources used

1. Samarin V. I., Fomin A. N., P. K. Kalashnikov, Orlov A. I. Petroleum trends of the Russian economy. Monograph // Ministry of education of the Russian Federation, Gubkin Russian state University of oil and gas. I. M. Gubkin – Moscow, OOO "Advansed Solosis", 2016
2. Kuvshinova O., Papchenkov M., Prokopenko A. "Rosstat learn how to count (the government is thinking about how to subdue statslib the Ministry of economic development)" // Vedomosti 22.03.2017 – https://www.vedomosti.ru/economics/articles/2017/03/22/682203-rosstat-schitat
3. The Ministry of labor of Russia reported that the decline in real wages by 9% / / Vedomosti, citing Interfax, 5 Nov 2015 – https://www.vedomosti.ru/economics/news/2015/11/05/615678-mintrud-realnoi-zarplati
4. Shoigu said the release in Syria of the territory of 500 thousand square kilometers. Syria three times less // – https://meduza.io/news/2017/10/24/shoygu-zayavil-ob-osvobozhdenii-v-sirii-territorii-v-500-tysyach-kvadratnyh-kilometrov-siriya-v-tri-raza-menshe
5. The General staff said the number of Russian air strikes during operations in Syria // RBC – http://www.rbc.ru/politics/25/08/2017/599fdfff9a7947351bbf486f?from=main
6. GRU estimated the number of militants IG in Syria //Lenta.ru, 25.08.2017 – https://lenta.ru/news/2017/08/25/gruskazalo/
7. GRU called the number of militants ISIS // "Look" (business newspaper", 27.04. 2016 https://vz.ru/news/2016/4/27/807768.html
8. Russia was named the primary supplier of militants in ISIS // mail.ru, 26.10.2017 – https://news.mail.ru/incident/31443786/?frommail=1

Fomin A. N.

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