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The people of Russia will regain its state with Putinym or in spite of them
Material posted: Publication date: 09-06-2012

The vast majority of Russian citizens intuitively it seems: in the country ended one and began another historical epoch. A visible watershed become large-scale social protests that started in December after the Duma elections. So what caused the onset of the "era of change"? First of all, radically changed the social structure of our society that is manifested in the appearance of a new social majority groups of the population, which is 50 per cent or more of total population. Just because of its size this huge mass of people has a determining influence on society.

"People want to know how the world works"

In 1990-ies the social majority was formed by those to whom current income is not enough money even for food. At the beginning of the "zero inflated" it was people who already have enough money for food, but not enough for clothes. However, in 2010 in Russia the new social majority has been created by the people who already have enough current income to food and clothing, but not enough to simple household appliances. I must admit: the social policy of our state that I don't like its limitations, during the crisis of 2008-2009 contributed to their emergence.

Representatives of the new social majority is people who for the first time in two decades of reforms came out of the paradigm of survival. They finally have the time to think about how the world works. And, because they are no longer occupied with physical survival, they begin to show new requests to the state, demanding that you explained what is happening. It's not enough "bread and circuses" - they want justice. They can explain how Boris Nemtsov, and can – as Mikhail Leontiev. But people vital a consistent picture of the world in which the state is not their enemy.

Unfortunately, our government, which over the past twenty years there have been four generations of the officials, just do not know what it is. The Russian authorities today are reminiscent of the Soviet nomenclature of the sample in 1988, which told the people: "Guys, no war, food and clothing. Why do you need shoes? Enough with you and sneakers!". Party bosses, survived the second world war, according to her criteria were right - but society has changed irreversibly, which then parthenogenetica managed not to notice.

The picture is similar today – promotional films about what consumer affluence we have achieved in "blessed are the zero years", no longer have a magic influence on the minds of Russians. Because "the future" always wins "to the past", and when the government says, "Look how much I've done for you," she had already failed...

Representatives of the new social majority felt themselves citizens recently in 2010-2011. For them, the Duma elections were the first elections in conscious life, even if before they cast ballots in ballot boxes. In December 2010 the new social majority for the first time consciously came to the polls to do their civic duty - and then he suffered a huge surprise and disappointment.

On the extent of abuse and unbridled otmorozennogo so-called "authorities" showed 15 days of administrative arrest, which slapped at a polling station man who dared to ask the question: "How could you vote for my uncle, who died 10 years ago?" Can't say that the level of fraud in 2011 was much higher than in previous elections - most likely, he was normal, but in connection with the revival of a civic nation, the people's reaction to fraud was qualitatively different, and there arose a strong wave of protest.

Of course, at first, the mass demonstrations in Moscow and St. Petersburg "saddled" liberals, which is not surprising when financial, organizational, and media resources. But by March the first wave of the protests subsided, and the next big demonstration – may 6 – has already passed under leftist slogans. It's funny to see how Nemtsov, Chirikova, Kasyanov, Nemtsov and Yashin were photographed under red flags, simply because others on Yakimanka. In the summer of the current protest wave, of course, subside, to fall to resume with renewed vigor, because we will see a fast growth of a systemic crisis.


"Bobby" the Russian economy is dead"

What feature of our economic model? Not that we're sucking oil and its unrestrained selling. Nothing of the sort! Our "be special" is that the ruling party plunders the Soviet heritage, along the way destroying him savagely, and assigns it to legalize as private property in the West. Perhaps this is the main content of the last 25 years of Russian history that can be called "a quarter century of national betrayal". This is a source of such "charms", as insecurity of property rights, capital flight, refusal of modernisation, the arbitrariness of monopolies, glaring inequality and extinction of the population at a speed, which could dream of except Hitler.

In 2011, the corrupt model of modern Russia gave serious the crack is . the economy has ceased to respond to the rise of oil prices.

It would seem that everything is fine: the budget is full of money – in it without movement lying to 5.4 trillion rubles, which is almost half annual revenues. Even middle managers in corporations receive bonuses, which are ashamed to confess, but the children of oligarchs and members of families of officials from the North Caucasus in the truest sense of the word, "are going crazy because they have nothing more to want." In General, the language of the ruling party, "all in chocolate".

But in 2011, for the first time in the modern history of Russia sharp – almost 40% - the increase in world oil prices has not led to faster economic growth. As he was in 2010, and remained at 4.3%. This suggests that our economic model is worn out, and vet the court have to regret to say: "Bobby oil economy died". Spot this Rublevsky-kurshavelle economy, which 25 years cheerfully wagging her tail, barking at everyone around and pulled the owner all the tempting bushes, will never rise. And this is felt by all - businessmen and ruling party, and normal people.

Despite the mad rush of money in Russia, real incomes in 2011 will decline - and this despite the pre-election pumping in November and December! Yes, by the end of 2011 they officially grew by 0.8%, but, if you subtract the "Golden hundred" "Forbes", it turns out that all the others have started to live much more modest – not to mention the fact that official statistics routinely underestimates inflation by about half. That is not done the new social majority to get used to not even "beautiful", but something approaching a normal life, he again the time has come to tighten the belt.

It should be noted that a minimum economic growth, creating socio-political stability in Russia is 5.5%. And in 2012, and in subsequent years of such figures can only dream about. This means that the major "groups of influence" vulgar soon not have enough money, and they start fighting with each other, thereby destabilizing the entire society. The beginning of this process we are already seeing, and not only in Moscow.

Essentially, what the "ruling party" is trying to keep their profits primarily by cutting back the clumps of the welfare state (she can't encroach on the sacred – corruption costs!) From July 1, will come into force a controversial law on budget organizations, which officially aims to increase the payment for public services. This means a qualitative reduction in availability of health, education, culture for the main part of the population.

In July of this year is expected to be completed process of Russia's accession to the WTO on enslaving quite liberal. In the autumn these conditions are fully felt by the industry and agriculture. You should pay attention to the fact that no sooner had the government to rejoice at accession to the WTO, as AVTOVAZ announced the transition of imported steel sheets for vehicles, and state-owned banks – the cessation of lending to Russian livestock. That's why the credits the dead?

All this will cause outrage in some places in the industrial part of Russia this fall and in the spring of 2013 outrage at the policies of national betrayal spread over a significant part of the country. If current state policy of Russia, as far as we can judge, inevitably face a new turmoil with the loss of state control over all important aspects of life.


"Putin worked examples of Mubarak and Gaddafi"

No matter how ridiculous that sounds in light of the above, is the only, albeit very modest, hope to avoid a systemic crisis associated with the return to the Kremlin Putin. If we proceed from the corruption of the essence of the Russian authorities, the decision seems irrational. Putin could live happily ever after as the "gray cardinal" seated "on the throne" next "President of the provisional technical" or even the discoverer of this almost Hollywood genre - Medvedev. Agree, pretty boring to get back to routine work, when you can enjoy life to perpetual pensions, and downright dangerous to return themselves "at the galleys" in terms of the unpredictable development of the global financial crisis.

Probably the main motive that motivated Putin to run for a third (and given the Premiership – and fourth) period, is fear. Its source is obvious – the practical abolition of international law in the destruction of Libya and the global Safari durable authoritarian leaders, who suddenly seemed to some budding clerk of the state Department of insufficiently Pro-American. Putin saw what happened to the "Egyptian Pharaoh" Pro-American Mubarak, who gave all the necessary guarantees for his personal friend, many years Ambassador to Egypt. When the elderly politician made concessions, arrived in Cairo Madame Clinton and called it off. Examples of Mubarak and Gaddafi has shown that the loyalty of our overseas "friends and partners" to support their indigenous staff can fly "wizards in the blue helicopter" - can be, even UN - and start a show which became a standard Hollywood movie about a bad dictator and the rebels good. Their fate could be Putin's affordable and convincing evidence, that the only way to save life is to save power. It is exceptionally strong, and most importantly – profit and corruptiona motivation, which denies all gathered on the little man brick by brick and today's Russian model.

But Putin has done for self-preservation is only the first of the three steps.

The second step is to realize that to retain power in countries like Egypt and Libya cannot. This means that Russia should not become the likeness of these countries, and because - and this is the third step necessary to begin its development. Even attempting to do these steps will quarrel with Putin and the West, for whom the development means the reduction of imports and the loss of money, and with a considerable part of the current ruling party.

It's not just that she would have to steal less, even though quite enough. The main thing is that "offshore aristocracy" holds in developed countries is critically important for the asset – from money to children and mistresses – and therefore completely dependent on the West. In this situation, the tensions with the developed world arising from the real modernization of Russia, will demonstrate to the leadership of the country is inevitable and the hard conflict with the "offshore aristocracy". Putin will have to declare at least a political war on all who do not want or will not be able to engage in the development of Russia. This means he will have to strip almost the entire ruling class and fundamentally change the entire political system, which emerged twenty years ago and brought them to concrete conditions in 2000-ies.

It is highly likely that he doesn't want to do that and try again to negotiate with global managing class that combines the most powerful and active part of the global business and trade with the Soviet heritage, to take guarantees the inviolability of the temporary position of colonial governing class in Russia.

This positioning will make the failure of our society in a systemic crisis inevitable.

But in any case, any tomaszewska (which seems unlikely) Putin,

or someone who will come to power during a systemic crisis, it is necessary in the shortest terms to form the backbone of the new government from nominees from this people, check the fast and hard in solving the most acute problems. And there slogans to get rid of will be impossible – have to quickly solve the deepest problems, heaped quarter-century of the national treachery.


"Russia needs a merciless war against corruption"

I have to make new government in the first place?

First and foremost is the eradication of systemic corruption. You need just a few steps. The experience of Italy completely release the briber, cooperating with investigations, from criminal liability. This step breaks the mutual guarantee between the victim of corruption and its real organizer - the official.

In the U.S. experience, to confiscate the family is not cooperating with the investigation of a representative of organized crime (and corruption in government is always mafia) all assets, including acquired in good faith, leaving, roughly speaking, the social minimum, sufficient only for a very modest life.

Need a translation of the entire system of decision making in the state, the state-owned companies and collaborating organizations on electronic decision-making system that efficiently speeds up management processes, and most importantly – allows you to control the bureaucrat unbeknownst to him.

To free statehood from captivity the corruption it is necessary to introduce the principle of "presumption of guilt" when the discrepancy between the official income and expenditures in the families of officials and abolish the Statute of limitations for corruption crimes.

You should install that convicted of corruption-related crimes for life deprived the right to hold public office, to practise law and run for office at all levels.

The second step is to limit the arbitrariness of monopolies. Antimonopoly service (FAS) must be converted to economic by the KGB, which maybe of any commercial structure to ask, what is the price of its products. On German experience, the FAS have to get right at the sharp fluctuations of prices, first the price to return to the previous level, and only then to investigate the reasons of its change.

The third necessary measure is reasonable, at the level of EU protectionism. If almost everything we do hands, more than the Chinese, and half of this worse, the development of the country is impossible under the current policy of "open door". But if the EU will tell us that its provisions, moved to Russia, contrary to the WTO rules, - the worse for the WTO. We need jobs! However, because market incentives, including technical progress, we are weak, we have these incentives to support measures gradual increase of technological standards.

The fourth problem that must be solved is the problem of the subsistence minimum. If the Constitution says that the state guarantees citizens the right to life, why is it not guarantees citizens the economic expression of this right? And for the budget it will cost not so expensive – about 10 percent of those funds, which are now lying without movement.

Further, the necessary normalization of the tax system, so that people could in good conscience pay taxes. Russia turned the liberals into an offshore haven for the rich, while the poor and middle class, the tax burden on the wage Fund exceeds 39%. Progressive taxation is not just overdue, but is long over-ripe. This small business produces can be generally exempt from taxes and mandatory social payments to reduce up to 15% cover, according to numerous requests of the business, on all income.

After all these steps are done, you can proceed to upgrade the infrastructure. We now have in the best case technology 1960-70-ies, but if they at least replaced by technology 2000-ies, in addition to huge savings, we very quickly get an entirely new country.

With our people any more or less culpable by the authorities, if he so desires, may in a short time to solve all tasks and to make a real "breakthrough". Our society is United by a common sense - that is, the idea of what is normal and what is not, and this makes it ultra-efficient. As soon as the state from its destruction will pass to its development, we won't know with this speed it will change! But people should not wait "for favors from nature", but directly to seize the state by returning the meaning to its existence.

Author: Mikhail Delyagin

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