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"The last line of defense of the Kremlin"
Material posted: Publication date: 31-07-2017
Putin is going to bet on a fight against injustice. But this is a dangerous topic.

In the pre-election information the agenda of Vladimir Putin special emphasis will be placed on the topics of poverty and social injustice. In particular, the Kremlin will draw attention to egregious cases in the regions, where local elites shows an unattainable level of wealth and luxury — as, for example, in the Kuban judge's Kahalewai. About it told two sources close to the presidential administration.

"According to opinion polls, the main problems that concern Russians are falling incomes, social stratification and fear for the future are whether the current income and work? Including why in the presidential program will be the designated theme of the fight against poverty", — said the interlocutor of the edition.

According to Rosstat, in January–September 2016 the poverty line lived 20.3 million Russians, or 13.9% of the population. However, Olga Golodets in mid-December 2016, warned that poor much more in Russia.

Earlier told me that for Vladimir Putin, who is expected to be the main candidate for the presidential elections in March 2018, experts write program to several major reforms. One of them will be political reform, including the abolition or weakening of the municipal filter. Proposals for combating poverty and social inequality will be included in the economic reform. As for the struggle against the regional elites, it will be difficult to organize, however in the coming months we can expect a revealing of the scandals associated with luxury life regional officials. From the center will follow strict reaction to dismissals and criminal cases.

Experts note that the request for social justice and the fight against poverty in the society is really growing. However, if the government will adopt this agenda, not the fact that she would be able to keep it under control.
"I think it is important to note two things, — says head of the analytical Department of the Center for political technologies, Tatyana Stanovaya. The first is the change in the quality of protest compared with the end of 2011 — early 2012, Then the center of attention were issues of a more political and human rights ones. Now the basis of protest social injustice. However, even if the sauce remains the same — "fight against corruption" six years ago it came to the question of equal opportunities and prospects, and now it's closed, driven into society emotion and negativity against the new "Putin's oligarchs," and the puzzling future."

"The second is the changed approach of the Kremlin — continues to Stanovaya. If before the authorities were inclined to underestimate the problem of social injustice, to try to ignore it, fearing the growth of social expectations and demands, now on the contrary — attempts to seize the initiative from the non-systemic opposition".

According to Police, now we are witnessing, "as the development strategy of the country are taken not so much economists, as the spin doctors". However, there is a risk: recognition of the theme of social injustice can raise its social and political sensitivity. To minimize this risk should be exactly what you are looking for the Kremlin, — the way of the future. "That's only in power objectively there is no right of the image, and attempts to create a Mirage only convince lack of understanding of where the state", — said the expert.

All these topics are really relevant, and if Putin will be able to show that he is taken seriously for their decision, then people will believe him. However, credibility is not infinite, says analyst Abbas Gallyamov.

"Credit of trust to the President has he says. Will not have even come up with some unusual moves for the introduction of these topics, simply many times to mention, and minimize all other — primarily foreign policy. The only problem is that this is the last line of defense of the Kremlin against the looming universal disappointment. If, having promised the people to solve these problems, and then within two to three years, the President will not be able to demonstrate a clear movement in this direction, the trust will be exhausted," says Gallyamov.

Vice-President of the Center for political technologies Alexey Makarkin reminds that justice in Russia traditionally go to the king. "The problem is that while the government does not want to destabilize the situation in the elites, which also largely depends on the outcome of the election (not question Putin's victory, of course, but what will be the turnout and how much he will get votes), he says. — It is possible to arrest the Director of the Nizhny Tagil, but for Kuban, the judge has stood the judicial Corporation".

In addition, the expert reminds, the struggle for justice is the flip side — the settling of accounts due to economic competition. "And how to separate one from the other besides in the conditions of systemic corruption is the big question. Opposition in this sense is easier — she can criticize the entire system. And here it is necessary to show himself as a defender of justice, and not to undermine the system (as happened with the "Uzbek affair" in 1980-e years, which is out of control and has been used by the opposition)," — said Makarkin.

The head of the effective policy Foundation Gleb Pavlovsky recalled that the subject of combating poverty has always been the program of Vladimir Putin — for all his presidential terms.

"Poor is a political concept, says Pavlovsky. — The power belongs to a group of billionaires, and justified this usurpation of power by caring for the poor. Poor — is a demonstration instance of the people, which concerned a group of good Patriotic billionaires, so this topic is always in the program. But no program does not matter, because Putin is not in control of her performance," — said Pavlovsky. According to him, Putin has not yet made a decision whether to go for a fourth term, because this term will be a "trap" for Putin.

"A fourth term is a project of a group of people to transform Putin's successor Putin, who will just sign a piece of paper — said Pavlovsky. — Putin is looking for the clearance between the flags and tries to trap not to fall. And go for the new term will be for him a big mistake. In this situation, program abstracts, if the project of the fourth period will be poor in any case will not be in the game. Proponents of the fourth period, it will be necessary to recapture the money invested, and they will have no poor," adds Pawlowski.

Ekaterina Vinokurova


Tags: Russia

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