Foreign policy and national interests must come from the idea of the primacy of Economics. Attempts of the Soviet leadership to put foreign policy at the forefront with the idea of confrontation between US led to the overexertion of forces (80% of the Soviet economy was the defense industry with related industries) and the collapse of the country. Indulging the sense of wounded national pride of the Russians after the defeat in the Cold war and the collapse of the USSR (it is typologically similar to the mood of Germans after the defeat in the first world war), Vladimir Putin is making a vain and rather clumsy attempts to control certain areas that does not bring visible political gain, but causes significant damage to the economy. Russia's share in world GDP at purchasing power parity last year made up 3.16%, and the US – 15,29% of the EU – of 16.47%. We can't ignore Western sanctions.
Russia in its political development is increasingly coming to the path of Libya. The history of Libya under Gaddafi can be divided into two stages: 1969-1977 "Libyan Arab Republic" and 1977-2011 "Jamahiriya". In the most General terms in the first Gaddafi was Prime Minister based on political party, the "Arab socialist Union". Gradually there was a transformation, during which he declared himself "leader of the revolution" and governmental institutions were replaced by "people's committees". In our country there is a similar process to the destruction of institutions. It is not excluded that Vladimir Putin will remain in power after 2024, by amending the Constitution. Similar parts: the story of MH17 resembles the explosion of a Boeing over Lockerbie. The Libyan Colonel has pleaded guilty and has established a Fund to compensate relatives of the victims, began to rebuild relations with the outside world, but the atrophy of political institutions has gone so far that the virus of the "Arab spring" which could transfer many countries in the middle East, proved fatal for Gaddafi. Can Russia collapse with the Libyan path?
The main mistake of foreign policy of Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin – the fragments of Imperial thinking and lack of understanding of world development trends. The expansion of NATO to the East, not representing a real threat to Russia, at least because our country has nuclear weapons, spoil Russian-American relations. Fundamental research historian Mary Sarotte based on extensive archival material and interviews, shows that Mikhail Gorbachev was not possible to resist the expansion of NATO after German unification (an absurd situation in which the Western part of the country is a member, and the Eastern there is also no guarantee of NATO expansion nobody gave it to him). What really could make Gorbachev is to require a much greater amount from Helmut Kohl. Gorbachev received the money only for the withdrawal of troops and their reintegration into their homeland while internal documents show that the Germans were willing to pay a lot more.
Economic development in the modern world is provided not by control over those or other territories and natural resources, and particularly technology and human capital. Simple fact — at the end of last year, the market capitalization of Apple, the leader of the American economy, has reachedastronomical 900 billion, then Rosneft exceeds $ 60 billion.
Imagine for few minutes that our country has another President.
One of the key problems in Russian-American relations – the Kremlin's meddling in the electionsof the President of the United States last year. Important note themselves "active measures" carried out by Soviet security services, but then they did not have a significant effect on the election because of the low popularity of left ideology in the USA. However, among a number of leftist public figures of the United States separate fake news like homosexual FBI Director Edgar Hoover still enjoyed the confidence. In 1968 the Service And a special unit was engaged in "active measures" was trying to support the candidate Hubert Humphrey, in 1976, she actively opposed the candidate Henry Jackson.
The current disinformation campaign from the position of legal populism fell on fertile ground, for many years cultivated by Fox News, Breitbart and other American media. The new President of Russia it is necessary to recognize the fact of the "active measures", as part of the Toolkit is Russia Today and Sputnik to sell to private investors or in case of their absence – to eliminate. Is it really so terrible the privatization of the media, including foreign investors? Let me remind you that the Australian media Mogul Rupert Murdoch owns Fox News, The Wall Street Journal and it is built into the American system. Criticism of left-liberal mainstream from a position of right-wing populism for him, the simple marketing strategy that provides views and clicks. Important is not the fact of possession, and the adoption of the rules of the game and adherence to generally accepted professional standards of editorial policy (presentation of different points of view on the issue, etc.)
It is also necessary to begin negotiations on the agreement in the field of cybersecurity. During the hearings in the U.S. Congress last year has repeatedly raised the issue of such an agreement, obviously the Americans are ready for dialogue on that instrument. The verification process execution of the contract, obviously, much more complicated than in the case of strategic nuclear weapons, but to move in this direction. This will remove the sanctions under article 224 of the said act.
Another problem is Russia's policy towards Ukraine. USA as one of the signatories of the Budapest Memorandum cannot ignore the Kremlin's actions in Ukraine, otherwise the system security guarantees in other regions (for example, the American shield to Japan and South Korea) can be destroyed. The problem of the Crimea has no realistic solution to this frozen conflict will continue for decades, like the Russian-Japanese territorial dispute over the Kuril Islands. A new referendum on the status of Crimea is theoretically possible to hold, but its legitimacy is still in question, since many opponents of joining Russia had already left the area. Russia could offer Ukraine to pay compensation for the Peninsula, but this proposal will probably be rejected by Ukrainian politicians for domestic political reasons. Sanctions against Crimea will not be undone. The situation in Eastern Ukraine is solved by granting access to the Ukrainian authorities to the Eastern border with Russia and introduction of international peacekeepers to prevent excesses by the Ukrainian military against the local population. The new President would be fairly easy to make this decision, as there is the problem of "losing face" and personal responsibility for the incident, thus tying the hands of Vladimir Putin. These steps will give you the opportunity to remove sectoral sanctions against financial and energy sectors (article 223).
In Syria, the interests of the United States and Russia converge in the fight against terrorism, and even the exchange of information between intelligence services on Russian and American citizens who are fighting on the side of the LIH* and then return home. Different approaches towards Bashar Assad. The United States believes that his cruelty in the suppression of unrest radicalsare people and is the source of terrorism, the Russian authorities are convinced that he is able to cope with the problem. Real benefits from the support of the leader for Russia, maintaining a substantial military presence there could lead to a "Syrian syndrome" among former military, similar to Afghan in the 1980s. This support reasonable exchange for the lifting of sanctions against Russian military-industrial complex (article 234).
Also of note is the problem of corruption and human rights in Russia. Articles 227 and 228 of the law "On countering U.S. adversaries through sanctions" include sanctions for persons involved in such crimes. Remark for those who are not keeping a proper eye on us law (article 228 is a wider version of the "Magnitsky act", this law imposed sanctions against individuals involved in his death, this article gives authority to the Office of foreign assets control of the U.S. Treasury Department to impose sanctions against any violators of human rights in our country). To remove these sanctions, it is necessary to carry out judicial reform. Should establish strict qualification requirements for judges. Former secretaries of the courts with part-time education should not be the backbone of the judiciary. Federal judges should be appointed by the Federation Council after the public hearing on the proposal of the President of the Russian Federation. A similar model operates in the United States. Even now subject to full Republican control over all branches of government, in public hearing, swept asidethe unqualified candidates like Matthew Petersen. In addition, the cases among the judges should be distributed by lot, presidents of courts should be deprived of this right, which puts ordinary judges at the mercy of the chief.
The above-mentioned measures will allow to remove most of the sanctions of the United States, with the exception of the Crimean their component that will return Russia to the circle of civilized countries. Further concessions from Russia, no one expects, let me remind you, Kurt Walker, the U.S. special representative for Ukraine, saidthat the immediate solution to the problem of the Crimea has not.
A landmark we can experience the United Kingdom, after the collapse of the Empire. Emphasis was placed on "soft power" and cultural influence on the elites through education. Higher education is one of the visible exports of this country (the system of national accounts the money that foreign students pay for their tuition, are treated as the export of education). Attempts to maintain/regain operational control over the political situation of certain territories being taken by Vladimir Putin, relying on the Imperial phantom pain part of the population, only harm the country's economy, which stagnated for the last 10 years.
* the organization is banned in Russia
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