The issues of world geopolitics, the role and place of Russia, Eurasian Union in the modern world, other pressing issues on the global agenda became the subject for the interview the doctor of historical Sciences, Professor, adviser of the Center for strategic estimates and projections Sergey Nebrenchin the information-analytical portal "Empire"
- Sergey, how do You evaluate present international situation? What factors and forces affect the balance of power?
- The crisis phenomena in all times were constant companions of the existence and the evolution of human civilization. The world history knew a lot of global crises, which resulted in a geographic and demographic picture has changed radically. And these disasters were not only geological origin, connected with cosmic cycles and geopolitical events on planet Earth. Currently, however, experts increasingly say that the earth civilization entered into a period of threat of development. Thus, it is about the survival of humanity in an era of increasing global challenges.
In this context there are two main groups of threats. First, increasing the main contradiction of modernity - between the rapid growth of the population of Earth, planetary scale of consumption and exploitation of natural resources, on the one hand, degradation of habitat, increasing environmental disasters and the increasing scarcity of natural resources. The situation is compounded by the fact that the leading tendency of world development, under the name of capitalism, based on commodity economy, completely exhausted. The politicization of the economy and financialization policy has led the capitalist world to bankruptcy, the transition to new technological way became inevitable and, as a consequence, inevitable and a new repartition of the world.
Secondly, scientists and politicians today openly speak of the advent of the next geological cycle that will inevitably again lead to a change in the geographical picture of the world. Current climatic anomalies are becoming regular phenomena of terrestrial life, are the precursors of more global cataclysms. But even today, many climate disasters can lead to technological disasters, like the Japanese Fukushima.
Overall, currently the main content the modern era is tough competition in the struggle for new technologies, natural and intellectual resources, living space and the establishment of control over them. According to some geo Atlantic strategists, today all good, the goal of dominating the world justify the means. Not coincidentally, on the agenda of world politics was a question of a radical reduction of humanity, as the main condition for resolution of the global contradictions of the modern age. This is largely dictated by the policy of certain forces in the West, aimed at physical, spiritual and moral destruction of Nations and their natural habitats, the pillage of natural resources, the destruction of nation States and the undermining of the foundations of international security.
Information terrorism the world media, permanent wars and conflicts, terrorist acts, managed social chaos, "color" revolutions, financial crises, currency and trade wars, the introduction of elements of artificial life, of total electronic surveillance, epidemic diseases, famine, etc. - this is not a complete list of tools for manipulating peoples, States and politicians in the interests of forming a new world order.
In this context, Russia and Belarus, like other countries of the former USSR, related to the number of "excess" peoples on Earth to be destroyed, and their territories substitution with other Nations. Especially clearly this strategy is now being implemented on the territory of modern Russia, where there are: the catastrophic decline of the indigenous Russian-Slavic population, an unprecedented mass migration of peoples from the South, degradation of habitat, and many others. etc.
- Now a lot of talk about the fact that Barack Obama is in second term of his reign will conduct a new foreign policy. Do You expect any changes in American foreign policy?
- The US remains the leading military-political and financial-economic player on the international stage, acting in the interests of the "world backstage". As you know, presidents are puppets of the "powers that be" and without their knowledge do not take strategic decisions. The whole American system, as well as other world powers, including Russia, is under tight external control. By the way, Belarus is one of the few countries in the world that is not controlled from outside and remains one of the few truly sovereign state.
Meanwhile, according to media reports, recently in the global triangle, the Rockefellers, the Rothschilds, the Vatican has been a major controversy and strained relations. The resignation of the head of the Vatican Benedict XVI – is one indication of the intensification of the conflict. In these circumstances we can expect any geopolitical surprises from the current American President, acting in interests of one of the global groups, in particular, as reported by the media, the Rothschilds. The latter, confessing plans for undermining the sovereign States and the creation of information and financial centers of world governance, not interested in preserving the current role of the U.S. as the "world's cudgel" in the hands of the Rockefellers. According to media reports, the fight will flare up around the further fate of the fed and a trillion-dollar US debt.
In international context, Washington's policy likely will not change. We will continue to destabilize the situation in Eurasia from Lisbon to Tokyo. Intensify opposition to China as a new global superpower, where authorities have recently significantly increased "nationalists". The object of special attack is Russia headed by Vladimir Putin. Anti-Chinese and anti-Russian geopolitics will result in further destabilization of the region from Suez to Tibet, around the Caspian and Black seas.
Will not weaken the fight over the Euro and the European Union, Ukraine, Belarus, Serbia, Transnistria and other "hot spots" of Europe. Surprise US foreign policy could be the collapse of the "Israel project", his redesign in the new international context. In addition, there is a provocation undermining the foundations of statehood and territorial integrity of Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, until the collapse of the States in the establishment of "Great Kurdistan" in the territories of compact residence of Kurds in Iraq, Iran, Syria, Turkey, etc.
- Is it possible to say that in foreign policy Russia is recovering from the custody of the US that emerged during the Yeltsin period, and begins to pursue a more independent foreign policy?
- By their nature, foreign policy is secondary to the internal, first of all, proceeding from national interests of the state. In modern Russia the diplomatic levers of power, rather, remain an important and effective channel of external influence on Russian events, the balance of political forces, the choice of economic and other development priorities.
However, with the coming to power of Vladimir Putin's foreign policy in the country began to change in the direction of greater regard to the public interest. Today, they primarily consist in the desire of those in power to survive and survive in an era of global challenges and threats, in an environment enhancing the external pressure on Russia, enhance the agents of influence inside the country. And although it is not in the full sense, of consistent lobbying on the international scene, attempt to leave the fairway of foreign policy, primarily the United States, deserves no approval.
Here it must be borne in mind that in the period from 2008 to 2012, when Putin was not the head of state, Russia's foreign and domestic policy has largely been discarded to the state of zero years. On behalf of the new President who relied on sustained trust rating of Putin among the population, the political initiative in the country to seize power of the liberal, Pro-Western agents of influence. Losses and costs of the four-year reign of the liberal presidential power could be even greater, if Putin had no influence on the economy of the country as head of state.
2012 was a turning point. The majority of the population of Russia, which proved wiser than the politicians, and most are not gone for the winter "swamp slogans", supported the presidential election of Vladimir Putin, giving him a new carte Blanche for the salvation of the country in an era of global challenges and threats. And even if today, the threat international environment, the current President and his entourage in power, like Stalin and his "guard" on the eve of the Second world war, more concerned about its survival and self-preservation, Russia once again has a chance to fight for their liberation from dependence from outside.
- Libya and Syria – what is the difference of Russian approaches?
- First, the events surrounding Libya occurred, when Russia had a different President, who was in the hard embrace of the "reset" with the United States, who led foreign policy by Western patterns. From the Libyan conflict, the Russian elite, mostly focused on the West, having there property, deposits, etc., learned an instructive lesson. Libya dismembered and divided, the elite is split, for the most part destroyed or isolated, the wealth of the country looted. Muammar Gaddafi, who led a questionable friendship with the Western rulers, was publicly torn to pieces by his adversaries. World online has shown how they intend to deal with the unruly rulers those who started the "Arab spring".
In Moscow a sign understood and accepted as the signal for active resistance Atlantic export strategy of new revolutions in Eurasia. Fortunately, the Russian people vaccinated by the events of 1991, when as a result of mass protests was destroyed by the Soviet Union, most have become immune to the revolutionary upheavals and cataclysms. As a result of "solidarity" movement, which time was synchronized and coordinated with the Syrian events, was a failure. The people, elected for a new term of Putin, who has openly opposed intervention in the internal Affairs of Syria.
In Russia today, realize that Syria is only an intermediate stage in Atlantic geo-strategy to destabilize the situation in Eurasia. In turn Iran, Central Asia, the Caucasus, Pakistan and beyond. The ultimate goal is China, Russia and even the EU. Therefore, Moscow believes, is better and easier to defend its national interests outside the country than in their own territory. In Russia, according to available information, already exist all the prerequisites of the scenario of the "Arab spring", and, in particular, built a complete infrastructure of political support, is actively working outreach machine, deployed and operates a network of terrorist organizations, special work is carried out among migrants and ethnic crime, etc. In this regard, recently in Russia began to undertake concerted efforts to counter destabilisation from outside.
- How, in Your opinion, serious statements of the Turkish leadership about the readiness of this country to join the Shanghai cooperation organization? Isn't these statements just to blackmail the EU to speed up Turkey's accession to this organization?
China rapidly became one of the world leaders, he is becoming a real geopolitical counterweight to Western coalition, an international organization with the participation of Beijing are beginning to play an increasingly prominent role in the world. The SCO, which, along with China, Russia, remaining the largest country in the world, a nuclear power, was originally destined to become an attractive subject for other States and, above all, of Eurasia. Therefore, Ankara's interest to the very non-random Association.
In addition, you must keep in mind that in recent years the country has exacerbated internal political struggle. In the country there are forces acting from the standpoint of Islamic solidarity in international Affairs. They believe that the involvement of the country in conflicts in the middle East on the side of NATO countries is fraught with unpredictable consequences. In mass media there was information that Turkey is seriously concerned that the country could become "a bargaining chip" in the struggle for the redistribution of the map of the region. There, not without reason, fear that the creation of a "greater Kurdistan" will lead to the disintegration of the country. In Ankara enviously attempts of certain forces in the West to flirt with Baku, tries to turn it into an attractive alternative to the subject of the Turkic States. In Turkey, having a long history of rivalry with Russia, a history of almost 30 bloody wars, not all are willing to aggravation of Russian-Turkish relations.
However, it is obvious that in Turkey those influential forces which are focused on close interaction with NATO. They are ready to use any argument in the political bargaining with the West to strengthen its position in power, to achieve international preferences, to keep the country in the orbit of influence of NATO.
Additionally, in connection with Turkey question – is it possible to participate in the SCO member country of NATO? Will there be a connection with this conflict of interest?
Here much will depend on the positions of China and Russia. It cannot be excluded that in the aspiration to solve the task of forming a collective security system in Eurasia, which may claim today, the SCO will need to substantially expand the circle of participants of the organization. It is already implicit in the status of members and observers the representatives of the Muslim and Turkic countries, which rank Turkey.
Its participation in the SCO would not only contribute to the development of full-scale dialogue between the Eurasian countries, conflict resolution in a broad region from Suez to Tibet, but also the credibility of the country in the Muslim and Turkic world, the stabilization of the situation in Turkey itself. However, it seems that Pro-Western forces in Turkey will put a lot of effort to prevent the country's entry into the SCO in any capacity.
- What are the biggest threats facing Russia in the short term?
- In an era of global challenges and threats Russia faces the same challenges that in other countries. Moreover, Russia, having the largest territory in the world, having rich energy resources and reserves, survival (forest, water, etc.), strategic communications, powerful intellectual potential is at the epicenter of global warfare on the Eurasian landmass. According to media reports, one set of plans (the Rothschilds) the country is subject to dismemberment, the resettlement by other peoples, the reformatting in a separate territory under the information and financial control from the outside.
The Rockefellers, defending a military-political and financial-economic status of superpower USA and their positions there is no objection to the preservation of the territorial integrity of Russia but under the control of his agents of influence. However, neither those, nor others do not intend to allow the Kremlin where Vladimir Putin, to consolidate, and even more and to integrate the post-Soviet space. The Vatican, which is rapidly losing its position in the once entirely Christian Europe, hopes to revive and strengthen largely based on the Orthodox flock in Belarus, Russia, Ukraine, Moldova. However, the close relationship of the ROC with the current master of the Kremlin is forcing the Vatican to maneuver between two opposing factions, the Rockefellers and the Rothschilds.
In modern Russia the situation is complicated by the fact that the country, on the one hand, is in a deep demographic crisis, on the other, faced with the problem of mass migration, leading to the recolonization of the country, which threatens unpredictable consequences for national security, sovereignty and territorial integrity. The corruption model of development, which, paradoxically, is one of scrapie holding Russia from disintegration, does not give us any chance of the transition to new technological way, eventually, to the rebirth and prosperity.
In this regard, a particular threat total dependence from the outside and subversive activities of agents of influence, supported by a strong information support tied to international sources of information. At the present time the system of external governance in Russia, which began to take shape at the sunset of the USSR, continues to control all major areas of state functioning and society. The attempts of the current President of the Russian Federation to use the "manual control" when addressing the key questions States may not lead to dramatic changes in state of Affairs in the state.
Aggressive-depressive state of society, demographic and social injustice, corruption, mass migration and ethnic crime, centrifugal tendencies and disintegration, economic stagnation – this is not a complete list of modern threats to Russia.
- How do you see the way forward for Russia?
- As many politicians and experts, to achieve a positive result, it is necessary to take a series of purposeful steps. The main of them are: first, consolidation and mobilization of the people and political elites to fight against interference in the internal Affairs of the state and society. To achieve this difficult without the improvement of moral atmosphere in society, the withdrawal of the population from aggressive-depressive States, information coma. Today, more than ever, it is necessary to eliminate external influence on the public and other leading mass media, the establishment of strict control of the state and society on information and personnel policy in the media, ensuring the information security of state and society.
Secondly, there is a need for a human revolution and remove the liberals from power, the reformatting and consolidation of authorities, the elimination of the post of head of government, subordinate to the government directly to the President, Union of chambers of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation under the leadership of the Chairman, the conduct of elections to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. The current consolidation of power structures, in particular, the merger of FSB, FSO and SVR, the priority strengthening of the army and Navy, increase their status and prestige in the society, strengthening of social guarantees of servicemen.
Thirdly, the refusal to participate in the WTO, the elimination of financial and economic dependence from the outside, the subordination of the state Central Bank, the transition to settlements in rubles in foreign economic activity, the cessation of detrimental liberal economic reforms in the country, holding neoindustrialization and desurbanization countries, the translation of national economy on the rails and self-sufficient mobilization of the economy, priority development of the defense industry.
Fourthly, the vast majority of the population would support a policy aimed at stopping migration to the country, the expulsion from Russia of all illegal immigrants, strengthening of border and migration control, the elimination of the infrastructure of ethnic business, the elimination of network structures of influence and support national communities, national-cultural autonomies, etc.
At the same time there is a mass request for demographic restoration of justice and equality in the country, the reform of state-territorial device: or the abolition of all national-territorial entity and restore the actual equality of Nations, as required by the Constitution, or the revival of Russo-Slavic statehood within the Russian Federation within the territories of compact residence of the Russian-Slavic population.
Alternative to the appearance of Russian-Slavic statehood could become real, the creation of a Union state (SG) Russia and Belarus, in which Belarus could serve as the center of attraction for all Russian-Slavic territories of the United States. The Belarusian frames are able to become the core of the Federal political elite that will be a powerful factor in the struggle for purification of the society from the shackles of corruption. The fact that the SG will contribute to the revival of the Russian-Slavic historical and cultural of the Trinity, the participation of Ukraine. In the Union state even more relevance will get the issue of moving the capital from Moscow, the amalgamation of territories of the Moscow region with other neighboring regions of Central Russia, the transformation of Moscow in the historical and cultural center of Russia, the limit of registration in the Moscow region, the rejection of the construction of "new Moscow". the formation of the Union state of Belarus and Russia, strengthening of the Customs Union.
However, in times of deadly new challenges and threats to the population of Russia and, primarily, Russian-Slavic long time for yourself attend to its survival and self-preservation. How to act in this situation, dictates human nature. First of all, necessary, despite all the socio-economic and other difficulties, to be fruitful, to bear children, to educate them in religious traditions. In addition, as nature suggests, not even in dangerous situations to survive easier, "huddling together in flocks", better at the place of compact residence. So behave the representatives of the peoples of Russia, because that's easier to break into the business, to ensure the safety of tribesmen, to advocate, to lobby the government and law of their ethno-religious interests. The strongest of the Diaspora have their spheres of influence and feeding, infrastructure, financial, material and even armed support.
In conditions when the Russian-Slavic population of Russia was deprived of its public and other agencies of mutual aid and support, important role in the formation and development of a network of ethnic solidarity could play a Russian Orthodox Church, which today has also become a victim of Russophobia and is under unprecedented attack. It is therefore imperative that the ROC more I positioned myself, as it was the Russian Church. Despite the fact that the fraternal peoples of Belarus and Russia is also experiencing hard times, being exposed to attacks and pressures from the outside, they need to attend to the fate of their compatriots in Russia. Otherwise, Slavs brothers I am out of luck. All of them, and not only their post-Soviet space, waiting for the sad fate of the Stripping and disappearance.
- The United States began to concede economic leadership to China. China is ready to assume the burden of the geopolitical leadership, or he will be more inclined to positional games?
- Knowing the "civilizing instinct" of the Chinese, we can assume that they will not come down from the mountain, where they enjoy watching the battle of his potential opponents, rush to take the place of the US and take on himself the whole burden of the world's problems. However, in Beijing understand that they would not avoid a head-on collision with their geopolitical foes. The latter is already open "rolled" a wave of controlled chaos in the direction from Suez to Tibet, provoke conflicts with Japan, Vietnam and other neighbouring States. The position of the "world shakers" and, in particular, the strong grouping of the Rothschilds in China. Despite the recent victory of the Chinese "nationalists" in domestic politics, the position of the supporters of the West remain strong, primarily in trade and economic sphere. In Beijing do not rule out that the independence of the country can be a revolutionary new tests, like those that rocked the country during the crackdown by the Chinese authorities protests in Tiananmen square in 1989
In these international circumstances, China is objectively interested in developing partnerships with Russia, the strengthening of the position of the SCO, the coordination of international efforts in preventing interference in the internal Affairs of other States and, in particular, Syria, Iran, etc. at the same time Beijing will continue its trade and economic expansion in Eurasia, including the former Soviet Union, Africa, Latin America, etc.
- Recently many States that a priority of Russia's foreign policy is the area of the CIS. The difficulties facing Russian foreign policy in this area and how to solve them?
- Due to the fact that Russia, for obvious reasons, was not able to conduct effective foreign policy, including in the post-Soviet space, countries of the former USSR were victims of the integration of conflict caused by foreign interference in the Affairs of the region. CIS, when civilised divorce of former Soviet republics, today became a deterrent to integration around Russia. At the same time on the territory of the former USSR appeared anti-Russian international associations, in particular, the Eastern partnership, designed to revive the "Baltic-black sea cordon Sanitaire" around Russia. On the West it included not only Belarus, which is allied relations with Russia.
Muslim CIS countries more often originate from the interests of the Islamic or Turkic solidarity, rather than preference relations with Russia. According to experts, their influence on the development of the events, given the mass migration from these countries and presence across Russia the branched structures of the national-religious diasporas, higher than the presence of Moscow in the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus. Created on the initiative of Moscow the CSTO is not yet a full-fledged military-political Alliance, in political terms, dwells in the shadow of the SCO.
Do not bring the desired result and Russia's financial investments and other economic preferences to keep southern neighbors in the orbit of its influence. So far, everything is exactly the opposite. Many years of assistance and support Russia had only served to strengthen the sovereignty of these countries and distance from Russia. In fact, Russia is only the cultivating his rivals and often opponents, both in Central Asia and the Caucasus, and among the participants in GU(U)AM, the Baltic States, etc.
In the current circumstances, Russia is difficult to count on success in the countries of its traditional influence as long as the country will not be reborn and turn into attractive geopolitical entity until it becomes to pursue an independent policy in the international arena. As you know, in the East, first of all, I love strong, rich and authoritative, and although I appreciate a fair neighbor.
- Your opinion about how is the development of Eurasian integration – what challenges await the elites and the peoples of our countries in this way?
- The prospects of the Eurasian Union is dependent on many conditions. When it comes to the unified state education, but only such a goal can be justified and promising, it is necessary that the homogeneous ethnic majority in the United States, according to the laws of metaphysics, at least 66-67%. Otherwise, as the entire world historical practice, such geoemydidae not viable, and therefore not durable. Even if we are talking about the Arab Caliphate, Khazar Khanate, Ottoman Empire, Russia (USSR), and they, from the point of view of world history, lasted for about 300-400 years and broke up for various reasons, but a common circumstance. Homogeneous cement in basic socio-demographic masonry statehood, posypalis, at one point, destroys all the building of the Empire. Incidentally, in the Soviet Union, before its collapse, the number of Russian-Slavic population dropped to 60%, including Russian – 50%.
In modern Russia, according to some estimates, it ranges on the turn 65%. In modern USA the number of homogeneous Anglo-Saxon population is approaching 60%. In historical retrospect there is hardly any prospects for the EU in which the core is of Germanic origin is clearly not up to the desired limit of homogeneity. Conversely, extremely stable and enduring Chinese civilization, where the Han Chinese constitute about 90% of the population. History shows that other methods, law enforcement, financial, information, "divide and conquer", etc., to preserve the stability of empires in a long time, more than 50-70 years, it is not possible.
In this context, the prospects of the Eurasian Union, assuming that its core demographic will be the Russian-Slavic population, which largely depends on the possibility of accession of Ukraine. In another case, the basis can be the Turkic-Muslim population. Currently in the world there are about 120 million Turks, including nearly half of them - in the CIS countries. In the countries of the Customs Union the Muslim population reaches 40 million. However, all of these indicators clearly insufficient to form a homogeneous metaphysical most of the Eurasian Union. It will be necessary to facilitate the entry into the Union of other Muslim countries and, primarily, Central Asia, Azerbaijan, and possibly Turkey. At issue will be whether able Muslim-Turkic and Orthodox-Slavic demographic alloy bonding the Eurasian Union in the long term, to respond positively difficult because it is not clear who will "plow horse" of this geoemydidae.
- Is it possible to merge the ideas of the Empire and the Eurasian Union in a consistent way or something you have to sacrifice?
- As you know, geoemydidae are of two main types. First, this interstate Union, as for example, CIS. Secondly, - the Union of peoples and territories under a single nagasarete, - EU. It is obvious that the Eurasian Union is the path chosen by the EU, which originally was going to go even further, and this means to the Empire, as it was called on paper, in a declarative order. Therefore, ideas of Empire and the Eurasian unionnot only not contradictory, but in fact may be identical in practice.
In the history of attempts at substitution and opposing each other forms of geoemydidae rather related to the interests of competitors at a particular stage of geopolitical confrontation in the world, the political struggle over historical events, countries, Nations, territories. Therefore, whatever geoemydidae, it is, in fact, will be an Empire or Union (USSR) or the United States or the EU. However, it is important that when creating new empires arose, the situation of the political conflict between the representatives of the most uniform and homogeneous minority, which, as history shows, often intercepted by the authorities in the Empire.
In world history many examples of homogeneous active ethnic minority created and ruled by empires based on the most homogeneous in the face of other Nations. As an example, the Arab Caliphate, Khazar khanate, the Ottoman Empire. A typical example of tsarist Russia, where the kings and the political elite, in its majority, had nothing to do with uniform Russo-Slavic majority of the country, which in those days was 90% of the population.
- Sergey, thanks for your interesting thoughts and very interesting assessment.
Interviewed By Yuri Little Sheep
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