Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Politics and Geopolitics / On the national idea / Articles
The Russians strangled loans
Material posted: Publication date: 13-03-2017
Arrears of Russians to banks continues to grow, primarily due to falling costs of the mortgage. Some interest-only loans last year paid 1.8 trillion rubles., estimated by experts of the Gaidar Institute. It is not surprising that the contribution of the credit market, including mortgages, in the Russian economy were negative.

The population debt to banks (as of 1 February) amounted to 10.7 trillion rubles While the volume of debt of natural persons for Bank loans for the year 2016 has dwindled to just 0.3%, or 37 billion roubles, is spoken in the monitoring of the economic situation in Russia.

The authors of the monitoring the experts of the Gaidar Institute, the Russian Academy and the Russian Academy of foreign trade, Ministry of economic development.

A large part of 2016, the retail lending market recovered (growth by 1.7%) after a considerable decline in 2015 (6.4%). In the first months of this year the trend has continued and the growth rate of credit debt has reached in annual terms to 1.9%, or about 200 billion rubles.

Some other calculations lead experts from the development Center of the Higher school of Economics. According to them, the volume of household loans in January decreased by 0.4%. Nevertheless, the annual growth rates in retail lending grew from 1.6 to 2.0%.

"Traditionally, this was achieved by the forces of the state banks, the loan portfolio remained at the level of the beginning of the year (+7.8% yoy), while in private he declined in January by 1% (-8,1% year-on-year)," — noted in the study "Comments on state and law", prepared by the Centre for development Economics.

According to calculations by the Gaidar Institute, the restoration of positive growth rates of banks ' loan portfolio last year and early this year was mainly driven by the segment of housing loans, mortgage.

The debt of the population on loans for the purchase of housing has not dropped in any month since 2011.

In 2016 the debt even increased by 12.9% from 9.7% in 2015.

A black hole for household

According to experts of the Gaidar Institute, for other consumer loans is observed fundamentally different picture. Outstanding consumer credit (excluding mortgages) contracted for the second year in a row, although the rate of contraction and slowed from 14% in 2015 to 5% in 2016. In the end, the structure of household debt on Bank loans is shifting in favor of more long and cheap loans to buy housing.

The share of housing loans in the total indebtedness of the population has reached last year a record 42%, an increase of 4 percentage points

The minimum share of housing loans — less than 30% in 2013, although for 2011-2013 was the credit boom, when growth rates on consumer loans reached 50% yoy.

The terms on which people take mortgage loans, by the end of 2016, almost unchanged and are now 12 years old. The urgency of consumer credit as a whole fell from 37 to 32 months.

According to the Gaidar Institute, the average weighted interest rate on loans for house purchase remained stable for almost the entire year — at the level of 12,5–12,7% per annum. Although at the end of last year, new loans issued already at an average rate of 11.6%, and major banks announced a further reduction.

"Despite the restoration of positive growth rates in loans in 2016, the contribution of Bank lending to the household finances remains negative. This is a consequence of substantial interest payments significantly exceeding the amount of the increase in the loan of debt," — explained "Газете.Ru" the Director of the Center for structural research Institute for economic policy. Gaidar Mikhail Khromov.

In 2016, the population has paid banks to 1.8 trillion rubles as interest on loans.

While the growth in loans was only 200 billion rubles. Thus, Bank credit was the cause of the reduction of the overall household budget last year to 1.6 trillion rubles on average for 2014-2016 negative contribution of the credit market in the budget of households is estimated at -4,3% of consumer spending.

During the years of the credit boom in Russia (2011-2013) contribution of Bank lending was positive and amounted to 2.8% of consumer spending.

"For the third year, the credit market is a black hole in which to disappear the income of households," summarizes Khromov.

Borrowers in uniform

However, not all borrowers willing to negatively assess the role of loans in your financial health. Some categories of the population, according to the monitoring, consider stabilization and some even indicate a positive trend. It all depends on the scope of employment. The worst feeling in the current economic situation, the construction workers, utilities, transport, communications.

And only representatives of the army, interior Ministry, FSB and the municipal workers and civil servants feel more confident about the rest.

"Security forces and officials were optimistic, they are the least affected by the crisis", — said Elena Abraham, Director, laboratory of research for social development INCAP Ranepa.

It seems that those lucky in the first place to provide loans. Moreover, the number of people employed in these areas is growing. During the period from 2006 to 2015, the number of security forces and officials has increased from 4.94 million to 5.33 million.

Rustem Falyakhov


Tags: Russia , economy , finances

RELATED MATERIALS: Politics and Geopolitics
Возрастное ограничение