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Russia-Germany: Possible scenarios in the context of regional security
Material posted: Publication date: 09-09-2010

Developments round Armenian-Turkish relations have outgrown the framework of the regional format and moved to global politics. There is every reason to believe that, regardless of the outcome of the current stage of the diplomatic process, the question of the relations of Ankara-Yerevan will long remain in our foreign policy agenda, because it is strategic and in its importance is not inferior to the conflict with Azerbaijan regarding Nagorno Karabakh.

It should also be stated that until now the policy of the RA was coordinated and from the point of view of diplomatic professionalism was superior to the Turkish side committed to the negotiation process in a meaningful way. Thus, the concern of the reviewers that have "Imperial" experience of Turkish diplomacy can "outsmart" the political figures of Armenia, completely dissipated. As a result of developments connected with Turkey, around the country formed a favourable political climate, in addition to once again actualized the "Armenian question", which once again became the subject of discussion of the governments and parliaments of different countries.

No less important is the fact that the Armenian-Turkish process has enriched the Armenian political thought and become an additional reason to intensify the search for new resources and capabilities in foreign policy of Armenia. From this point of view deserve the attention of global and regional changes occurring as a result of formation of a multipolar system. In particular, the same logic exposed to the development taking place in the framework of the European Union, which, in our opinion, contain new opportunities for the RA foreign policy.

"Post-American" region. In a brief review it is difficult to represent the complex events in the global plane for military and political processes, as they contain many nuances and components civilizational, economic and otherwise. However, try the schematic in order to consider the basic trends that are the result of rather painful for a multipolar world order. Changes occur gradually, so, unlike what happened during the revolutionary collapse of the bipolar system in short time intervals, they are not always foreseeable. At the same time, systemic changes, with whatever intensity they may occur, are always fraught with unpredictable consequences: no wonder that some political scientists compare the current realities with the eve of world war II.

In these conditions, apart from sverhusiliya China and related possible scenarios (they need to be specifically addressed), most relevant from the point of view of the development perspective of Armenia's policy is the relative decline of the United States in the region. Expression of this are, in particular, associated with Turkey, the difficulties that had this superpower when you perform a mediatory mission in the Armenian-Turkish developments. It is noteworthy that as in the beginning of the last century, and today the representatives of the American elite began to increasingly turn to the need for the United States policy of "isolation". In particular, occupying now a leading position in the Republican party and a possible candidate for the presidential election 2012. Congressman Ron Paul recently spoke not only in favor of the complete withdrawal of us forces from Iraq, but also urged to withdraw from the UN and NATO, abolish the Federal reserve system and to limit U.S. interference in the Affairs of other countries.

Meanwhile, the American retreat, according to the reports of some analysts, can lead to the formation of the explosive situation in the Middle East and South Asia (the so-called Eurasian Balkans). Note that this region today, especially because of what is happening in Iraq and Afghanistan processes, is in a very unstable position, which is mainly triggered by the same Americans. However, the American intervention, as strange as it sounds, ensures the stability of the instability", stationarity. Ie, create chaos in one degree or another is under control, that was unlikely to continue after the Americans assumed that the retreat of the Anglo-Saxons is much more dangerous than their attack.

It is obvious that the creation of such an uncontrolled region, whose countries either already have or aspire to have nuclear weapons (including Turkey), for Armenia is a new challenge for adequate confrontation which required new resources and political partners. In this respect some possibilities contain what is happening in Europe new development.

The formation of a "German" Europe. It is known that projects for the creation of a "United Europe" is quite a rich history, and conceptual approaches to the current EU were developed before the end of the Second world war, the main efforts of the Anglo-American political leadership (especially the great contribution of the Prime Minister of great Britain Winston Churchill). Then in this direction were taken the first practical steps in the form of signing in 1951. in Maastricht of the Treaty between France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg.

The EU was created as a structure which is based on the relationship that was supposed to prevent the possibilities of individual countries and, primarily Germany, to act independently and to recover as a strong power. This mechanism operated quite effectively in the bipolar and unipolar systems. As a result, the EU is the largest economy in the world – in the global plane does not play a major geopolitical role. However, in the context of a multipolar world order and financial crisis, when their own national interests began to move to the fore, began the process of separation. This has been manifested in the weakening of U.S. ties to Europe and intensifying competition between them, and deepening of the differences between levels of economic development and other areas of the EU.

Most prepared for new situations were Germany. Suffice it to say that over the last 10 years the competitiveness of German goods and services compared to other EU countries grew by 25%. As a result, Germany is today in economic terms is not only the strongest power in the EU, but the country-setting the EU rules for the activities (and with less reliance on neighboring France). Characteristically, Chancellor Angela Merkel in the international media is often called "Frau Europe".

Increased military-political ambitions of this country: today the representatives of the German elite in voicing ideas for reforming NATO (meaning the increasing role of Europe itself), the mastery of nuclear weapons, the withdrawal of American bases from the country and other such ideas. This suggests that in the near future the "Germanized" EU, and in some scenarios – acting together with its allies outside the framework of the EU, Germany, will seek to take its rightful place in the global geopolitical context.

Russia, Germany and "Great Europe". From the point of view of the above trends are particularly notable proposed German military circles, a new edited project to build a "greater Europe" with the aim to "counter the threats of the East", which involves the involvement of Russia in the structure of NATO and thus, in fact, "evroazija" of this structure. Such a scenario is especially likely to be updated, if visible in the United States striving for self-isolation (remember the statement of Congressman Ron Paul for the withdrawal of the US from NATO) from the theoretical plane will move to the practical. It is obvious that this development, first and foremost, it implies the willingness of Russia, considering its complexes against NATO and its "extensions". However, today, Russian politicians are noticeable trends that can give realism to the project "Great Europe", and this is not only due to traditional notions of geopolitical axis Moscow-Berlin.

Today Germany is the main economic partner of Russia, they are the major geo-economic and energy projects. In the political sphere also has a certain coherence (in particular, the issue of Georgia's accession to NATO). It is also important that in recent years Russia has started to give preference to the indirect actions, i.e., holds a slim strategy. For example, in the presidential election in Ukraine, the opponent has "officially" Pro-Russian Yanukovych Tymoshenko also was not anti-Russian, i.e., in contrast to previous years, the favorable political field was formed заранее1. Friendly were also the evaluation of the elections by Europeans: in the context of a relative weakening of the US they are more adequately perceived the restoration of Russian influence in its "rightful" territories and seek no longer "grab" Ukraine, and to turn it into a platform for cooperation EU-Russia. About the strengthening of relations Russia-Germany is indirectly confirmed by the emergence in the information space to a variety of analytical materials devoted to this теме2. Certain trends of European integration are also apparent in relations between Moscow and Warsaw.

Examples of the above-mentioned character a lot, and, without going into details, we can say that the idea of forming a "greater Europe", being adequate as a logic of civilizational communities, and the realities of a multipolar world seems to have become acceptable to the parties. In the circumstances the USA and the UK, in contrast to the previous negative stance in the issue of deepening the relationship Germany-Russia, also, apparently, need not be fundamentally opposed to the project "Great Europe", as such a geopolitical Alliance in some scenarios can become a natural barrier in case of possible Eastern-Chinese expansion.
The possible impact of the project in the region. In the neighborhood of "Eurasian Balkans" (where there are declining trends in governance and control) of Armenia one of the guarantors of military security continue to be the military cooperation with Russia and Russian military base. And from this point of view the possible participation of the Russian Federation in the project "Great Europe" with the German accents of course will increase the chances of our ally. In such a situation the German presence can be useful.

Germany, acquiring some influence in the Eurasian military-political field, may consider our region as a platform for the realization of its geopolitical ambitions, such aspirations show the Germans, for example, in Afghanistan), and in this case, these claims should not contradict to our national interests. This is evidenced, in particular, the following circumstances:

Germany has in our region, highlighted by oil interests, that is the determining factor in the policies of other Western powers and is reflected in their biased attitude towards Azerbaijan,

The official Berlin has serious problems with Turkey, and there is also the fact that in Germany there are about three million Turks, 1.7 million of whom are citizens of Turkey, they are a significant part of the principle, partly following the direct orders of Ankara, does not seek to integrate into the local society. This factor has caused the problem of civilizational and demographic character in German society, partly already expressed in the foreign policy approaches.


1. In terms of the new Russian strategy characterized the recent "color revolution" in Kyrgyzstan, having obviously "Moscow" origin.
2cm., for example, "Russian-German relations in the context of European security", under the editorship of Professor V. I. Dashichev, - M.: IE RAS, 2009.



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