Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Politics and Geopolitics / Russian-Armenian partnership / Articles
Armenian pole in anticipation of the big war for oil
Material posted: Publication date: 18-12-2012

"Insolence – the second happiness" – says a famous proverb. This means that one who can act boldly and directly, rather achieve results than one who works quietly, modestly and quietly.

Audacity is not born out of nothing. Usually it is the product of a sudden confidence, often turning into self-confidence. Another indicator of arrogance is to increase social status, and as a result, and the emergence of a sense of superiority.

Audacity is one of the definitions of chutzpah, but grew into rudeness, say psychologists. Thus, the audacity of this fully mental phenomenon, although little studied, but sufficient is clear to all [1].


Applied psychology

Examples of arrogant behaviour can be found in everyday life and in politics. Here is a simple example of the beauty of the present. [2] Ankara "threw" Russia. First, Turkish politicians have agreed on the project "South stream" to transport Russian gas to Europe, and then just as famously disavowed its decision.

And then the scientists rushed excitedly to discuss the subject of the Russian response to the Turkish ultimatum. And few people have wondered what prompted Turkey to make this far from a "partnership" a step in exactly this moment, when Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Ankara on an official visit.

The culprit, of course, audacity. And God would have it, Turkey, if she always behaved with Russia in a similar way. But it was the first and until today the only example in recent history when Turkey acted against the big Northern neighbour in this way. Brazenly. Rude.

What does this mean? From the point of view of theoretical psychology, the definition of audacity from which are given above, it can be assumed that the sudden change vector of Turkey's policy due to something that dramatically raised the status of this country gave her a certain sense of superiority.



And yet, what happened? And the following happened. [3] U.S. President Barack huseynovich Obama for the first time in several years, violating the Geneva principles on the settlement of the conflict, recognized as the legitimate authority in Syria, the national coalition of bandits, terrorists, assorted Islamic militants, dozens of detonating bombs in residential areas of cities, wholesale shot representatives of law and order, decapitation of civilians and military personnel, taking Syrians hostage for ransom.

Turkey, who believed themselves abandoned to their fate before the face of the coming defeat of the Syrian opposition government forces to spoil relations with all its neighbors for the goals of the world's policeman in the face of financial circles in the West, suddenly cheered and went on the attack.

While Russia is Turkey's decision was certainly a bolt from the blue. This is not the last blow of the Turks in Russia. Just recently expired lease DRLS in Azerbaijani city of Gabala. In Moscow are still trying to save face and claim that being deprived of this station, Russia has not lost the ability to conduct over-the-horizon reconnaissance at long ranges. But everything is already clear – the question at the rental station, the statement of President Obama's demarche to Turkey, the open preparations for a ground operation against the Assad regime, all links in the chain..


It was after the Turkish "gas" demarche was clear that the end of the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria has never been closer, and the audacity of the participants in a bloody Orgy becomes truly boundless. The actions of Azerbaijan perfectly fit into the logic of further measures of the West to eliminate the theocracy of the ayatollahs in Iran. Russia from the region pushed out as they can, regardless of anything else.

Strictly speaking, Russia was only one real political ally, able for some time to assist in maintaining influence in the region – Armenia. But Armenia has no other resources other than the military. What it can to help Russia? Politically not much. The only area where Armenia today can operate at full strength is Eastern front line with the Republic of Azerbaijan..



The trick is Turkey in relation to Russian gas project, self-confident and sassy the position of Azerbaijan "Gabala radar station" – this is not the last facts the arrogant behavior of these two countries-the twins.

A few days ago once again swayed Iran. [4] Ministry of foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic presented a note to Azerbaijan in connection with the sounded in Baku with a proposal to support the establishment in the territory of Iran "South Azerbaijan" (under the "Northern Azerbaijani" policy of Baku understand their country – approx. mine). And this proposal, which was exaggerated for a long time, sounded on the Congress of world Azerbaijanis. A nation created less than a century ago, already holds the "world congresses".

However, this is not the first note of Iran. I suspect that not the last.

Against Iran Azerbaijan is no less brazenly than Turkey against Russia. 11 Dec 2012 Azerbaijan abolished the simplified regime of border crossing with Iran. Bridges are burned already so obvious, what about the future consequences not only thinks the one who is not able to think..


The last battle

For Iran, the current aggravation of the situation in Syria, the beginning of a new coordinated offensive of the Western coalition (through Islamic militants, paid for by the Persian Gulf monarchies) – this is the "last battle", which is "most difficult".

What should be the actions of Iran in this regard? First, apparently, the most specific. Secondly, they should proceed from the logic of the current situation of Iran, not emotions. However, in acrimony of the Iranians will not suspect a thing. But the logic of the current situation of Iran suggests that in the North, in Azerbaijan, has begun the forced preparation for aggression with all the ensuing consequences.

The Republic of Azerbaijan has entered the final stage of preparation for participation in the intervention against Iran. And all of these cancellations is a simplified regimes of crossing the border, calls for the creation of "South Azerbaijan" is nothing but an attempt to achieve two important goals:

- First and most importantly, to prevent the mass Exodus of refugees from Iran to Azerbaijan that is able to simply destroy the "Baku khanate" without war.

Second, to create a kind of "Azerbaijan" belt, which finally connects "Baku khanate" with Turkey and cut one of the two "roads of life" for Armenia.

Returning to the possible actions of Iran. Today finally came the very moment when Iran needs to decide "Azerbaijani question". How to do it the Islamic Republic is not well understood. Whether it's direct military attack on the "Baku khanate", or the Republic of Azerbaijan will be destroyed by actions inside.

But the continued existence of the artificial state formations on the Northern borders of Iran threatens the theocracy of the ayatollahs death.


Dead Turan

Iran ready to help many. Someone's action, someone at least neutrality. But on this planet there is a country that does not want peace the Republic of Azerbaijan. No, it is not Armenia, because of Armenia the existence of Azerbaijan is simply unacceptable.

This Turkmenistan. Turkmenistan will have a serious fight with Azerbaijan for control over the Caspian oil field Serdar/Kyapaz. Such things as oil in the modern world not decided to give up without a fight.

The first Turkmenistan and Iran's main ally in the struggle against the Republic of Azerbaijan. Moreover, Turkmenistan is actively seeking and other stakeholders that could change the balance of power in the region. It was Turkmenistan, not Iran or Armenia, making every effort to ensure that at the right moment, the Republic of Azerbaijan was in a difficult position.



The recent visit of President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov to Armenia and immediately followed this visit of Serzh Sargsyan to Turkmenistan, as well as the refusal to participate in summit of CIS heads of state "of the Khan of Baku with Ilham, once again you show us what the pole is established in the Caspian-black sea region today.

On the one hand, this is determined by its participation in the anti-Iranian campaign of Turkey and the Republic of Azerbaijan, supported by the United States, France and great Britain under the military involvement of Israel.

On the other hand Syria is dying and the last "rock" in the way Western oil corporations to oil in the Persian Gulf – Iran.

The axis of Iran – Syria complements fallen into a panic after Iran for their turn will follow immediately) Turkmenistan. On this axis are struggling to string and Armenia.

Interestingly, Armenia, from the point of view of the participants osti Iran – Syria – Turkmenistan should carry out the role of Israel in the opposite axis USA – Turkey – the Gulf monarchies. That is, from Armenia the fact that she can do quickly and efficiently.



No doubt, Armenia made a proposal, from which she according to the authors can not refuse. She's only (what a little) required one quick blow to kill Azerbaijan.

Well, that is, Armenia offers a war.

Of course, the destruction of Azerbaijan for Armenia the prospect seductive. But there are two points that cannot be discounted.

First, Armenia (I'm not talking about the state and the people) does not want to fight. And even the persistent calls of the US to Armenia (in the form of bloody provocations on the front line) about the demolition of the power structure in the Republic of Azerbaijan this summer has not led to large-scale armed conflict.

Secondly, the outcome of the next conflict, from the point of view of Armenia, should be the disappearance of Azerbaijan as a country from the political map of the world. And that is something that no serious player do not allow.

Then what of Armenia to engage in a bloody mess, which aims to control oil and gas fields, as well as for transport corridors?

War for war, war for the sake of even thousands of corpses of the Transcaucasian and Anatolian Turks, for the Armenian people is unacceptable. We should not think in terms of revenge, because revenge is a dish best served cold only.

Any war must have a goal. And this is the purpose of Armenia, Artsakh and the Diaspora is. And it really bothers both the Turkish state.



The Wise Confucius. He was a thousand times right when he talked about the need to sit by the river and wait for swims past the corpse of the enemy.

Armenia may participate in elimination of the Azerbaijan Republic only in two cases. First, if this offer arrives from the North. Second, if this offer arrives from the West. In both cases, the result is almost certainly guaranteed.

But such a proposal neither from Moscow, nor from Washington won't. And we know that. Both countries are interested in further existence of the Republic of Azerbaijan.

Therefore, the only possible action of Armenia, in case of any aggravation of the situation around Iran, there can only be neutrality.

We, the Armenian people, should exercise the utmost restraint and concentration. We have to sit by the river and watch carefully.

Just so and not otherwise we will achieve our goals in today's geopolitical situation.


Lawrence Absence, especially for IC “Erkramas”







Tags: Iran , assessment , CSTO , strategy , Syria , USA

RELATED MATERIALS: Politics and Geopolitics
Возрастное ограничение