Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Politics and Geopolitics / The future of Russia and the world: estimates and projections / Articles
Azerbaijan and the "road map" of sanctions against Iran
Material posted: Pankratenko Igor N.Publication date: 15-05-2018
The weekend last week in the diplomatic offices of the USA, Europe, Iran, China and many other countries has not occurred.

The Department of state continued to explain to European partners that the withdrawal from the Agreement with Iran and new sanctions is progress, and not what they think. In Tehran, Rouhani fought back from insisting on his apology for the Agreement of the conservatives and demanded from Europe, Russia and China guarantees for the protection of Iranian interests. Beijing desperately traded with trump about the conditions of partial compliance with sanctions against Iran in exchange for benefits for Chinese companies in the us market... in short, the work was in full swing, and to date, the General outline of the road map for the introduction of new anti-Iran sanctions are outlined quite specifically.

A skeptical smile., calling them "effective and cool" was clearly premature. Like the hope of some experts that Europe at this time, the US campaign against Tehran will not support and Beijing generally ignore. Over many decades of use against a variety of States Washington brought their "sanctioned weapons" and tactics of its application to near perfection. And if earlier it looked like "shock the squares", which gave the victim the opportunity to circumvent or escape, today Americans have learned to hit the most painful spots. Yes, and to adjust the force of impact — what kind of "overlapping oxygen" completely, but something is creating the illusion that you could still breathe.

There is now no "sanctions", which, although complicated life, but left scope for operations of the "black knights" — numerous companies around the world, through which Iran had the opportunity to buy and sell, and conduct financial transactions. Companies, investors and financiers who are already working with Tehran, has from 90 to 180 days for curtailing its activities in Iran. Then they will be denied access to the US market and cut off from the financial institutions controlled by the Americans.

However, in each case apply an individual approach someone for political or other reasons, the term "evacuation" from Iran may be extended, here's how to negotiate or in private, either at the government level. And, in addition, will take into account the specific economic realities. Obviously, before the end of the year, Japan and South Korea will not be able to refuse Iranian oil. As may not easily diversify its energy imports by India. But because they will be granted a deferment, however, is not too big.

In fact, the current sanctions are the main purpose are it is the oil exports of Iran, foreign investment in strategic sectors of its economy, the banking sector and the possible involvement of Tehran in cross-border economic and logistical projects. Please put, the task of Washington is to reduce the income of the Iranian budget from oil sales, depriving him of the opportunity to modernize the industry, limiting Tehran's access to new technologies, and creating insurmountable difficulties for the financial system of the Islamic Republic. Mainly affecting those States and foreign companies that dare to act against anti-Iranian plans and the current US administration.

Almost unanimous "expression of deep concern" to the European partners of the Americans after the decision of trump to withdraw from the Agreement with Iran gave rise to it was some observers and in the administration of President Hassan Rouhani in the hope that the situation can still somehow be saved. The head of the Iranian diplomacy Javad Zarif is visiting the capital of the other participants of this Agreement — from Beijing to Berlin — trying to reverse the course of events and to prevent support of "the five" — China, Russia, France, Germany, Britain — the new American sanctions.

Before his departure in this "tour of despair" Hassan Rouhani made a statement, which says that "if the remaining five States [of the above members of the "five" — I. P.] a signatory to the agreement, will fulfill its obligations and will ensure our interests, the Treaty will remain in force, despite all the efforts of American and Zionist regimes." But it is clear that this appeal will be a "voice crying in the wilderness."

Not so much because the explanation of this, Deputy Iranian foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi on Sunday, 13 may, made a rather tactless and rude, in the form of an ultimatum demanding that the five guarantees for the preservation of the transaction: "European countries Have 45 to 60 days to provide the necessary safeguards for the protection of Iran's interests and compensation of losses caused as a result of the US withdrawal from the transaction. Otherwise, Iran will accept forced solutions." Not in the situation now in Tehran to speak in such a tone.

The futility of the trip, Zarif is due primarily to the fact that in the capitals he visits, a decision that for Tehran to quarrel with Washington is not necessary — has already taken place. The positive statements by the same German politicians about protecting the interests of national business from anti-Iranian steps trump was crossed yesterday's speech by the foreign Minister of Germany Heiko Masa, recognize that he sees "solutions to protect the company from risks associated with American sanctions." And, incidentally, reported that currently negotiations of the European countries participating in the so-called nuclear deal, we are talking about whether it is possible in principle, further trade with Iran.

Beijing to Tehran particularly rely is not worth it. Ahead of crucial trade talks China and the United States, a favorable outcome for the Chinese leadership more important than anything else. And for American concessions on their policy China is quite agree to "cover his eyes" on the problem of Iran. Especially because of the possibility of such concessions, particularly in the case of ZTE, who are under U.S. sanctions for cooperation with Iran in 2011-2014 — trump over the weekend hinted in no uncertain terms.

Of course, that everything that happens is directly affected by political and economic interests of Baku, which in the near future, politely but strongly asked to indicate their position on this situation. On the one hand — like all and just. Azerbaijan has experience of behaviour in similar situations in the period of "crippling sanctions" against Iran, introduced Obama and "Valkyrie Hillary" Clinton. Moreover, Baku's actions at the time were appreciated by all participants in those events — and deservedly so, it really was a sample of what is called the "art of diplomacy".

But on the other hand today an anti-Iranian coalition from Baku wants something more. At least — approval of their actions. How important is it as a weight Azerbaijan from their point of view in Iran "scenario" is clearly demonstrated by the episode when the Israelis tried to "cover up" Baku complicity in the recent troubled history with "secret archives". Not the first, by the way, their shares when they tried to create the world community the impression of "anti-Iranian policy" in Baku.

I think members of the new campaign against Tehran will be disappointed. They can not understand that Azerbaijan is he not Pro-American, not Pro-Russian, not anti-Iranian or antiIsraeli. Independence, discretion and strict adherence to what their national interests in foreign policy — that's one of the main achievements of Baku over the past decade, if you want to be his "signature style". And absolutely see no reason why, and for what it needs to give it up in the current situation around Iran.

Igor Pankratenko


RELATED MATERIALS: Politics and Geopolitics
Возрастное ограничение