Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Politics and Geopolitics / The future of Russia and the world: estimates and projections / Articles
Diesel era goes
Material posted: Publication date: 14-09-2017
A decisive step towards switching to electric cars does China, which accounts for a third of the world passenger car market. If he will announce the date of transition to electric cars, as did Britain, France and Norway, it can be considered the date of the final gasoline era.


China is no stranger to outweigh a bowl of scales global to one side. It is able to do this and in the automotive industry, where they formed a giant market: in 2016, China has sold 28,03 million cars. It is almost exactly one third of the global market, amounting to 86 million cars a year. The growth of the Chinese market compared to 2015 year was 13.7%.

On Saturday, Deputy Minister of industry and information technology of China Xin Guobin said at the economic conference in Tianjin that the Chinese government decided to join Norway, the UK and France, which finally decided to move from car engines running on petrol, on cars with electric motors. The fundamental decision made in Beijing, it remains to determine the date of abandonment of gasoline. After the statement Xun gobina the shares of the companies engaged in the development and production of electric vehicles, has considerably risen in price.

The Chinese government has already done a lot for the development of production vehicles with electric engines. Foreign companies, creating a joint with Chinese firms will produce only electric cars, provides a variety of benefits.

Waiver of gasoline in China say the first year, but for the first time, perhaps, mentioned a senior official. And for the automotive industry regulatory requirements sometimes play a crucial role. For example, with the struggle for environmental exhaust of internal combustion engines (ice), or for higher level of security.

Judging by the statements of politicians from different countries, almost 80% of the global automotive market is moving to ban gasoline and the transition to electric cars and hybrids. However, this movement was, until recently, deliberate, if not slow. At that time, as the total world fleet reached almost a billion machines, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), and in 2016 it has been sold only 695 thousand electric cars, i.e. less than 1% (0.83 percent). And the Chinese government intends to require automakers to starting next year, sales of electric and hybrid cars accounted for no less than 8%.

Sales of vehicles running on other fuels by 2025 is expected to grow in China 10 times and reach 7 million units. This year alone, according to the newspaper China Daily, is expected to build about 800 thousand charging stations.

The second Asian giant – India is also not going to stay away from trends. By 2020, Indian car market is projected to bypass the German and Japanese and become the world's third largest after China and the United States.

And elektromir

In India too are actively discussing the move away from petrol. Government research Institute of Niti Aayog, which develops the reforms, said the goal was to increase the number of electric vehicles by 2030, to 44% of the entire fleet of India.

Authorities encourage Indians to buy electric vehicles and cars with hybrid engines with the help of taxes. Taxes on this type of cars compared to traditional gasoline below 31%.

And yet at the moment the tone at the transition from petrol to electric machines is determined by the developed countries. France and Britain, the sixth and seventh car on the planet, plan to get rid of the traditional cars in favor of electric vehicles by 2040, and the small (in terms of cars sold — 0.2 million in 2016), Norway intends to do this 10 years earlier.

Now, electric cars are much more expensive than traditional cars with the same characteristics. The transition will take place simultaneously with the alignment cost between traditional vehicles and electric vehicles by reducing the price of the battery. BNEF expects that the European Union and the United States price parity between petrol cars and electric vehicles will be reached by the middle 20-ies.

The International energy Agency (IEA) believe that high oil use in the automotive industry, producing cars, more or less already achieved. In 2040 oil, according to forecasts, will account for only 7% of the sector.

Until the roads in 2008, first electric car Tesla, the only automaker seriously applied to machines with electric engines, was the Japanese company Mitsubishi Motors Corp. Now all car manufacturers are developing their cars. The latest on plans of manufacture of cars with electric motors, announced Director of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV and Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. Sergio Marchionne and R. S. Bhargava.

In Russia long silence. But as the Russian passenger car industry is technologically almost entirely controlled by foreign firms, including French Renault (and also VW, the European branch of Ford, etc.), if Europe begins the transition to electric vehicles, it with a time lag will occur and we have. In any case, at present, the policy of foreign companies in Russia is that we made the car a modern level, on a global platform.


Tags: science , oil

RELATED MATERIALS: Politics and Geopolitics