Bloomberg by the end of the year traditionally is the so-called guide of the pessimist for the next year, including events and scenarios that may become a global destabilizing factors. The guide is compiled based on surveys of experts and analysts, study reports, etc. In particular, Bloomberg included in the "guide to the pessimist" in 2017, the France's withdrawal from the EU after winning the presidential elections, marine Le Pen, the split in the US after winning a trump, the increasing global influence of Russia in the world (the scenario of "Yalta 2.0").
This year, Bloomberg has departed from the traditional format of the "guide of the pessimist" and told about the script of destabilization in the next ten years.
The Agency allocates eight macroscenarios global developments: "trump wins a second term", "Fake news killed Facebook", "Bitcoin replaces banks", "North Korea attacks", "Jeremy Corbyn (leader of the British labour party. — RBC) does socialism great again", "war of the generations is destroying Europe", "China starts a trade war" and "the Electric end of the oil era."
The President is Jimmy Kimmel and the end of Facebook
In the first scenario trump wins the election in 2020 because of the split in the Democratic party. Early in the second period he is able to cancel the health insurance of Obamacare, but to replace it, it did not come. Chaos in the healthcare system coincides with the drop in the stock market. In 2024 election wins Jimmy Kimmel (now a famous actor-comedian), the popularity of which bring the promise to create a national health insurance system. By 2028, more and more voters don't support Democrats or Republicans, but the alternative party. This leads to the fact that the post of President at the next election seriously expect four candidates, none of whom is gaining needed to win 270 electoral votes. For investors, this scenario means that in the coming years, American assets will become much less attractive.
In the scenario of fake news Bloomberg suggests that countries around the go the way of Russia and create their own equivalent of "Troll factory" as a "new tool of counterintelligence." As a result, by 2025", a situation where nobody knows what is true and what is false in the Internet". Administration Kimmel decides to start proceedings against the largest it companies, with the result that Google, Twitter and Facebook cease to exist in their present form. However, to defeat the misinformation that doesn't help, and in 2028, "according to the survey, 55% of Russians believe that trump becomes President for life". From the point of view of investment can play in the decline of the shares from NASDAQ.
Bitcoin is banks and riots of Russian oil.
In 2018 bitcoin will be worth $40 thousand per coin, and by 2028 the rate reaches $1 million — it will happen in the case of implementation scenario "Bitcoin replaces banks." The cryptocurrency grows on fears for the safety of the financial system after a high-profile hacker attacks. In 2021 Venezuela, Greece and several African countries are adopting bitcoin as an official medium of exchange, the cryptocurrency market are such major it companies like Amazon and Alipay. Gradually the Central banks begin to issue digital money, which bypass the commercial banks come directly to households. Such a scenario could lead to the fact that people will seek to invest in physical assets (such as gold or luxury real estate) as well as grow the shares of companies from the scope of cybersecurity.
Another scenario predicts the end of the oil era: thanks to breakthrough technologies to make electric vehicles has become much cheaper. It's a few years leads to a sharp decrease in demand for oil — by 2021 it is cheaper to $20 per barrel. Particularly penalized Saudi Arabia and Russia (in the first oil production there are riots). By 2024, against the background of instability in the country Vladimir Putin retires from politics and transmits power to the current head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina (at this point, the barrel is already $10). In 2028 OPEC falls apart and the world oil sector is facing a string of bankruptcies. The investor, if such a scenario seems realistic, you should pay attention to the shares of companies from the countries — importers of raw materials, and airlines.
China and Korea on the warpath
Two of the pessimistic scenario from Bloomberg connected with the Far East. In one of them in 2018, the North Korean missile will land in the 20 miles off the coast of the United States, then China will close the border with the DPRK. In 2019 Kim Jong-UN dies, the new regime in Pyongyang agreed to denuclearization. Washington, meanwhile, is moving closer to Beijing begins to sell him weapons and the withdrawal of troops from Japan and South Korea. In 2025, the last day of the presidency, trump, China announces plans to Annex Taiwan, and the outgoing President supports it. "2028. 82-year-old trump lands in Taipei to celebrate the unification of China and Taiwan. He's sitting next to XI Jinping, his old friend." However, Asia is entering a new arms race — access to an Intercontinental ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead, gets Japan. All of this — a good prospect for the Japanese and American military-industrial sector and bad for Asian currencies, warn analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
In another scenario, China imposes trade sanctions against several countries, including against the United States, Russia and Australia — all because of the failure to reduce CO2 emissions, which also hurts the Chinese environment. To invest is in production with low carbon dioxide emissions, analysts say Bloomberg.
In the UK in 2018 could be the year of the return of labour to power — as Prime Minister can take their leader Jeremy Corbyn. The price of exit from the EU is higher than expected by the government Theresa may: the new Cabinet have been actively borrow and to raise taxes. Higher education in the UK is free, and major banks are run from London. Voters attracted to the socialist agenda of Corbin, and in 2023 the labour party once again win elections. However, the debt the whole time growing in 2023, it reaches 100% of GDP. By 2028 investment in the UK is a "risky investment in an emerging market": the country is on the verge of default.
In another scenario, the European pensioners become a political force to be reckoned with. In France they organize protests when you try to reform the pension system is not in their favor, and in Italy — lead to victory in the elections, Silvio Berlusconi. The working population increasingly difficult to contain the retiring of numerous representatives of the postwar generation. This leads to a crisis in Portugal, Italy, Spain and Greece and a sharp increase in taxes. Belgium falls into three parts, as Scotland and Catalonia declare independence. The best long-term strategy for this scenario is to bet on the decline of the Euro. In addition, a good investment can be a company hiring foreign workers in the EU.
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