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The future of Eurasia: the BRICS or the Eurasian Union? The sustainability of unions
Material posted: Publication date: 05-06-2012

In CAIP was ocherednoi virtual round table. This time the topic was the future of the BRICS and the Eurasian Union. The main attention was paid to sustainability of unions. The survey was attended by experts from Armenia, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.

Years later with the onset of the global financial and economic crisis has clearly delineated the prospects of further development of Western civilization. It became clear that the existing model of world order in the new environment to work effectively. Global centers of power, formed on the same Foundation, were not able to adapt to changing conditions, which led to deep transformations in the geopolitical map of the modern: Europe and Japan was on the verge of losing its value in the existing world order, which has seriously undermined the hegemony of the global Western elite.

Transition, put on the agenda of the global elite question about the urgent need for transformation of the existing system and the formation of a new geopolitical map of the world, is capable on the one hand, to ensure its further stable position, and to restrain existing tendencies of change of balance in the world.

Aggravation in recent years, key global issues in the modern world, such as the depletion of hydrocarbon resources, climate change, General aging of the population of Western civilization, etc., made to act efficiently and harmoniously.

Already since 2008 began actively observing the options of forming new configuration of geopolitical forces. So, for 2011, clearly delineated the contours of the new power centres of the Commonwealth countries of the Persian Gulf. Another emerging centre is the African Union which was personally Muammar Gaddafi, as a result of aggression against Libya and eliminate the leader of the project was not implemented.

During these years there appeared two competing project, the main actor in which resource-rich Russia.

The first project is the BRICS. To the financial and economic crisis and the beginning of transformational processes this Association was seen only as a statistically similar set of countries, whose economies are somehow developed in close scenarios. Not about which economic, and especially political Union was never intended. And here 16 June 2009 Russia hosted the first summit of this "remake". It was quite unexpected. Even a cursory glance was enough to understand that this Union in the future is not viable – too different interests, cultural frameworks and level of development of countries. However, it originated with him and has to be considered.

According to some estimates, the myth called "Project BRICS" was urgently thrown into the global information space to compensate for the outbreak of the integration processes in Eurasia. Experts believe that "the BRIX Project" is not that other, as a product, which quite distinctly the ears of the strategists of Her Majesty the Queen of great Britain: two of the five BRICS Nations are the countries of the British Commonwealth (by the way, very interesting education, not deservedly overlooked by analysts). In addition the principle of forming associations in which the members saved a whole bunch of contradictions – the style of the Empire: there is always the possibility, if anything goes wrong, pull the knot and the whole structure will collapse...

We must assume that at the project "BRICS" have decided to play on the ambition of the Russian leadership, formally making Russia (with its 4% global GDP per capita and 91 in the ranking of countries by this indicator) is a leader in the process of becoming BRICS. This project successfully complements the interior of the Russian project on the establishment of an international financial center in Moscow. However, the idea of the BRICS is a closed project. Hard to imagine that this Union will continue to develop through the involvement of new members.

But integration processes in the Eurasian space, despite the emergence of BRICS has not stopped. By 2011, the project of formation in Eurasia's new geopolitical center became very real. It is based on the Customs Union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus.

In this project much more realistic than in the BRICS project. Cultural, economic, historical and other factors, countries that decide to join the Eurasian Union, much closer to each other and the role of Russia is quite clear.

However, the project of the Eurasian Union clearly does not fit into the existing plans of reconstruction of the world – its formation follows the principles that would allow the global elite to gain complete control over it, as countries wishing to enter into it, is too tied to Russia.

If you take this version as a basis, we can assume that the coming years will be to build "Eurasian Union" is very complex. Certain forces will make every effort to discredit the idea of the emergence of a new political and economic formations in Eurasia. This will be used as the internal contradictions of countries participating in the project, and external pressure on each of them.

Whether in these circumstances the project take place? With this main question, we turn to our experts.

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