Recently, the American Center for strategic and international studies (CSIS) – one of the leading analytical centers of the us administration, published a report "Global forecast 2011". The subject of the current research sounds like the "international security in the conditions of global instability".
The study authors note that in recent years, they identified many new challenges to national and global security. Moreover, a number of crises have arisen so quickly and left so little time for assessment that professionals in the field of security, there were serious difficulties with the assessment of what is happening. In this rapidly changing background, appeared such large-scale transformation, the impact of which went far beyond the horizon of operational events. Trying to predict such development has also failed. How to determine in real time what is architectural change in the very foundations of society, and what is a simple tactical impact of an event? How to anticipate events and set clear policy goals at a time of such dynamism?
All this has forced to begin a serious rethinking of the current approach to the assessment and forecasting of military-political and military-strategic situation in the world. Today, fundamental changes are needed in this area, but so far not exactly clear what they should be and on what theoretical basis to build on.
This goal is to embrace the changing international security picture at the time of significant instability of the other spheres of society and devoted study.
The first part is dedicated to the most important contemporary American society the question is whether the United States can maintain its leadership in the coming years?
Experts point out that the series of failures of American foreign policy in the previous decade (the inability to fundamentally solve the issue in Iraq and Afghanistan) amid ongoing instability in the global economy led to the fact that the role of the US as global leader seriously shaken. Today, even the most loyal American allies are forced to think about tomorrow – will the United States realize its promise to ensure their safety? That is why today is so important to the success and attempt to present as such an operation of destruction of Osama bin Laden, according to the authors of the study, is justified. However, this raises the question – did the authors correctly calculate the effects of higher orders and will not do tomorrow, what to do and not worth it?
In this context, is considered and future military-political bloc of NATO. The financial crisis crippled many of its members, and the commitments for them becomes too much to bear. For its part, to the US a lot of allies today also become a burden, since I prefer to have my own opinions on a range of foreign policy issues. That is why today once again raises the question about the effectiveness of NATO in the form in which it exists.
The next question the answer to which I tried to find the authors of the study is, and how to balance the increasing number of security threats, their new quality, as well as the need for rapid response with the need for a substantial reduction in the US defense budget, which is unsustainable, hangs in the American economy which is in its best shape.
In this issue, a number of experts believe that a significant proportion of military spending needs to be reduced by large-scale reduction of the land forces of the US army. According to experts, many problems are successfully resolved military air and naval forces together with the forces of special operations, and the maintenance of significant numbers of ground forces is not justified. Today, the United States, according to experts, must provide service of high-tech air and space destruction with elements of sea-based, but to participate in ground operations needs of the coalition forces of the allies. The first such experience, by the way, today is fulfilled in Libya.
A strong argument in favor of the need for radical reform of the armed forces is the assessment of the situation the revolutionary events of the "Arab spring". They were not actively involved nor the army nor the air force or Navy. Developed in recent years, the operational-strategic concept for the use of forces be useless here. Driving forces and means were fundamentally different.
On the other hand, as the authors of the study, in the event if due to unforeseen circumstances the situation in Egypt has acquired a different turn and was threatened infrastructure of strategic importance (especially that of the Suez canal), only American troops could take control of this infrastructure and ensure its normal functioning.
The second part of the study focuses on the continued understanding of the problems of ever-deepening economic crisis. Three years that have passed since the fall of the financial markets, showed that a sustainable path out of the crisis and not found. The pressure of accumulated problems makes competition of American and Chinese goods and services. USA concede in this competition to its Asian rival. However, according to experts, the existing deep mutual integration of the economies of the US and China makes a sharp painful movement and to China itself.
Experts point out that the current crisis affecting the very foundations of the world economy, meanwhile, has enabled a number of countries not only to rise in the ranking of developed economies, but also to begin to implement the goals of a number of its own geopolitical projects. Among such countries are called in addition to China, India, Turkey, Brazil.
The third part of the study focuses on the study and analysis of geopolitical implications of transformation in the Arab world and their impact on global processes.
Important conclusions made by the authors of the report are the statements about the need to preserve American influence in Egypt as the key to the African continent and the Arab world.
Also speaking about the consequences of the Arab revolutions, the study authors noted, and the situation in Libya.
Fourth, the final section of the study deals with issues of global cooperation in eliminating the consequences of global catastrophes. The example of Japan where the earthquake and tsunami claimed more than 14 thousand lives and the total damage is estimated at from 250 to 600 billion dollars. The tragedy of Fukushima has put before the expert analytical community new range of issues of international cooperation. Element is much stronger, but its effect inevitability, since it is impossible to negotiate in relation to it are no double standards and military strength. Therefore, to deal with the consequences of natural disasters can only be together until today but it does not always work.
One of the most important questions that the authors of the study, is the question of whether there is today in the us administration has its own "Grand strategy"? Is there today, "Obama's Strategy", by analogy with the well-known "Strategy Monroe or the President just decides tactical issues figuring out that one, then another crisis?
Some authors recognize that such a strategy is still there, otherwise in such a dynamic world a new wave of instability swept the United States itself. Another question – how this current strategy adequate to the world in which we have to implement it? Here things are not so simple. And many people tend to write about the fact that in recent years has put to the fore many new requirements for "Grand strategy" and it will likely have to rewrite.
Overall, as emphasized by the authors of the study, the main issues today are issues of equity – the global financial crisis and natural disasters. And if the financial crisis is still possible to speak about the presence of control actions, with the element harder. The cumulative effect of explicit and implicit factors leads to a steady decrease of the importance of USA in world politics. In order not to lose its dominance in the coming years from the American expert community will require a very extraordinary and creative solutions. Whether it can offer something in the near future, time will tell.
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