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Fourteen scenarios of technology development from a reputable analysts
Material posted: Publication date: 14-10-2019
Last week, London hosted the traditional annual event where CCS Insight presented their forecasts of the development of technologies and society over the next 10 years. In this list you can find some abstract assumptions, but there are specific predictions. There were made 90, but we'll talk about 14 the most interesting and promising for us. But at the same time look at what is this company and why its analysts are all predictions about our future.

CCS Insight is a British organization which deals with predictions and analysis. It includes professionals who long worked with technology. On the website CCS Insight even flaunts a recording stating that they carefully select their staff and they are all at least 15 years working in areas related to technology.

Part of CCS Insight forecasts are publicly available, for example, in this article, and the other part is done for specific requirements for businessmen, investors and other people who need to know how to develop in one direction or another.

Each year, CCS Insight participates in the conference, where her eminent analysts to share their thoughts on the subject nearest future. This year, in addition to company representatives, the conference was attended by many famous representatives of business and technology companies, for example:

  • Cristiano Amon (President of Qualcomm)
  • Stefan Streit (Director of marketing at TCL)
  • Olaf Swantee (CEO of Sunrise)
  • Daniel Rausch (Vice-President of "Smart home" in Amazon)

Below are examples of what may change in the future, with a brief description of the pros and cons of such changes.

Apple Privacy

In 2020, Apple launches its own brand "Apple Privacy".

Pros: As usual, the pros of all the innovations Apple revealed only after some time. If the technology will really work, we can talk about improving security. Apple is a company with the best specialists in the world, and they are rarely wrong. There were cases of leaks, iCloud data, but the accounts weren't protected with two-factor authorization. Otherwise, from the point of view of security, Apple can be trusted.

Apple always did a lot for security. At the same time, every year they try more and more.

Cons: the only Cons is that Apple will get an even greater impact on the market. But these disadvantages are easily translated to the pros if you can catch up with other market players and to start up the competition.

Who benefits: this will be Advantageous to all, since security is never superfluous. Not happy that only those who want to exploit the vulnerabilities, and will not, as they will be closed.

Check your smartphone status

In 2020 at least five operators will begin to offer subscribers an annual "health check" of the smartphone.

Pros: recently, studies show that users moved to upgrade smartphone every three years. This is due to the increase in the price of flagships and a slowdown of technology development. The emergence of a large number of service centers will facilitate minor repairs. For example, replace the battery. Even Apple decided to expand its network of authorized service centers by certified everyone third-party services.

Cons: on the one hand the emergence of a large number of services leads to competition and lower prices, and on the other, changing their status to “official” lead to more expensive services. Second will definitely be a minus.

Who benefits: this will be Advantageous, first and foremost, users. Despite the price increase, they will have easier access to quality repair smartphone. In the end, they will not have to frequently change the expensive gadget.

When you begin working 5G

The emergence in 2020 on the market a large number of smartphones that support 5G will lead to a drop in their prices.

Pros: the Pros of lowering the price is obvious — the price will be lower. Is it bad? And another good thing is that the emergence of a large number of devices with support for fifth generation networks will lead to growth of infrastructure. The situation may become like an avalanche. Users buy smartphones, the operators are building networks users are buying more smartphones, operators are building more networks... And so on.

On this slide is clearly seen for what we 5G

Cons: Find the cons in this scenario is difficult. Moreover, despite the development of new technology, older devices will not stop working, so as to be compatible with the new networks they will not be able to use all their potential.

Who benefits: Again a plus for consumers, but also operators with manufacturers, too, will not be the loser. First get a traffic increase and the second increase in sales of various devices, such as portable routers and smart home gadgets.

A mass system of recognition of persons

In 2021 will have a reliable detection system in the crowd of potential intruders.

Pros: detection System in the crowd already exist and are even able to make forecasts on the basis of artificial intelligence. But they are often wrong. It turns out that any person can “pull” from the crowd to check. In the end he will be late for the train or plane or just lose a lot of time. With a system that will not be wrong, such situations are almost excluded.

Cons: the Cons of such a system will be difficult to find. Especially if it will work correctly.

Who benefits: the law enforcement Agencies will be significantly easier to investigation and preventive work. In the end, increase the level of security must win the common people. If everything will work as intended, and will not abuse that many talk about, the pros will be exactly as.

Fighting takovymi video

In 2021 there will be a system of determining a fake video.

Pros: how artificial intelligence and other video processing can be done from one person to another video, just scary. To combat such video Google wants to 2021 to create a special tool. To talk about individual pros do not have. For honest people in such a system the definition of fakes is generally some solid pros.

Cons: If you don't want to deceive anyone, the cons in this tool in the fight against fakes is not for you. Because the false records can be used not only for jokes or prank, but in order to discredit the person, and even false accusations of crimes.

Who benefits: a Means of combating fake video will be beneficial to all who might be affected. And, of course, Google itself. If she will master this task, it significantly raises your credibility.

5G network from Amazon

In 2021, Amazon will gain an exclusive right of use of 5G networks, at least in the same country.

Pros: monopoly rare to find many advantages.

Amazon has long ceased to be just a store.

Cons: Amazon is a cool company, but it is good where there is competition. If competition in the communications market will not be the quality of the connection is not the best.

Who benefits: primarily, it will be beneficial to most Amazon that will get all the cream from the market. 5G will want to use it. Even if the quality is not very good, still Amazon will be in the black.

New series Netflix

In 2022, Netflix will have to find new ways of promotion, as people will cease to grow.

Pros: Perhaps they will come up with new and interesting pieces, or just worked out something from the old, but in any case, the worse the content from it will not.

Cons: the Cons in this situation can only be for the company as it will have to invest in something new. More no cons.

Who benefits: it will Benefit consumers who will receive new content, or greater competition with other services. There Apple TV+ is a little stronger. In General, it will be interesting.

Automatic fixing of violations

In 2022, for major sporting events artificial intelligence can replace live judges.

Pros: Theoretically, the error probability will be lower, especially if real people will double-check decisions adopted by the computer.

In the future, even the smallest violation in the sport will not remain without attention.

Cons: the Cons stem from the pros. Now judicial mistakes are unpleasant, but sometimes make a very interesting element to the game. For example, accidentally scored the extra goal makes the match more interesting. If these errors will not go away the human factor, which sometimes needs to be in any case.

Who benefits: primarily, it is not strange, it is beneficial to the bookies. They will be able to take bets without the need for adjustments to random events. In the second place, will benefit from this strong athletes, as they are more difficult to be accidentally or “almost accidentally” to sue.

Samsung Galaxy Glasses

In 2022 Samsung will release Galaxy Glasses.

Pros: At the time when many developed VR (virtual reality), Tim cook said that more faith in AR (augmented reality). A couple of years Apple has started to show that it was not just words. In the end it was once again the locomotive. Developments in the AR area was before, but now it has become widespread hysteria. All you want AR. Plus the fact that the technology is convenient, if not abused, and with the advent of new gadgets she will spread even more.

Cons: the Human brain is not yet ready, that he sees something there. Go with glasses, you see an advertising post, but it is not. So you can start to confuse real objects with fictitious. Such experiments were and the results are thought-provoking.

Who benefits: If Apple won't manage to release its decision, it will be profitable for Samsung. If the market is already formed, the company will have difficult, but from the competition we will win — consumers.

Testing of workers

By 2023, psychometric testing, developers will become more common. This is especially true for software developers.

Pros: Employers get more productive workers who can produce great results. All this will lead to better products and reduce the duration of their preparation for release.

Too right employee.

Cons: Not the fact that testing will take into account all the peculiarities of the individual employee. It may happen that small feature of the psyche will push far-sighted employer, but that it makes man a genius. It's too dangerous to bring such a broad concept, as a person, to a common standard.

Who benefits: If the system will work smoothly, it will be profitable in the first place, employers and good workers. The only question is what to do not very good workers. They will lose all chances? Possible, Yes.

A new type of wearable devices

By 2023, the lack of differences in the datasets will force manufacturers of wearable devices to pay users for their data.

Pros: since the development of wearable electronics sooner or later you will rest in your ceiling, and in the laboratory it will be impossible to calculate all scenarios, development on the basis of the user data would be a significant step forward. So the gadgets will be better and will show more stable results.

Cons: Already, the producers have access to parts of user data. Just now they are too impersonal and chaotic. If to access to specific users and pay them for their information, this will likely affect the cost of production. However, it is unlikely that the price increase will be significant.

Who benefits: back in the black we — the consumers. Improving the quality of any product is profitable, first and foremost, it was us.

When will home robots

By 2025, each of the fiftieth home in developed countries will have a home robot.

Pros: Home robot is good. And even better, that technology will make them available almost everywhere.

The interaction with a robot sooner or later will certainly become a truly mass phenomenon.

Cons: the Main thing to homemade robots really helped. Personally, I doubt that in 6 years it will be possible so to improve the technology of their production, so they become really indispensable. And another question, are robots, e.g. robot vacuum cleaner? They now have, as a minimum, each of the fiftieth home.

Who benefits: the Emergence of a new type of device is not so beneficial to the consumer, as competition in the market already available and nearly indispensable gadgets, such as smartphones. It turns out that in the first place, the robots will be beneficial to producers that will start to collect the harvest from their years of investment.

Interface brain-computer

By 2027 the interface brain-computer will move from the medical sector to commercial.

Pros: Like the spread of technology will lead to the emergence of new devices and gadgets. In particular, it can help in communicating with robots from the previous paragraph. In addition, the extension technology will enable the use of such interfaces for people with disabilities that will make their lives more fulfilling.

Someday, we will control household systems that way.

Cons: the Main disadvantage again is a misunderstanding coming too fast future. How our brain is ready for such innovations. If it will work fine and won't cause any harm, but this phenomenon will not.

Who benefits: the Appearance of this method of communicating with a computer will be beneficial to manufacturers of devices that will be able to significantly expand their functionality. It will also be able to empower people with disabilities.

Virtual reality combat environment

By 2029 the development of virtual reality and care about the environment will reduce the number of business trips by 20 percent.

Pros: Time the analysts give a prognosis, after weighing all the factors, it means that we will get two plus. First, humanity will start to care more about the environment, and secondly, virtual reality technology will reach a new level in these 10 years.

Cons: the Development of instant messaging, telephony and other means of communication have led to the fact that we almost never meet each other, preferring to communicate remotely. The emergence of virtual reality will be another stone in the garden in order to completely lock up the house. In the end, with the world we communicate through virtual reality, with robot through a brain interface, a food order remotely. Not such a good term.

The environment must be protected. It could not be.

Who benefits: do Not be sad about. The development of technologies beneficial to all. As the struggle for the environment. We all live in this world and the other we do not.

Forecast for 10 years

In addition to specific predictions for the next decade, given the above, the conference focused on broader issues. For example, many talked about the great strain on the global economy. This will affect all countries, not just developed or developing.

They also talked about technological nationalism. Such a strange term, experts were called in a situation where governments as a tool of its policy used by large technology companies. As an example, cited China and Huawei.

In General, it was noted that in 2010, technology companies have accumulated $ 1 trillion in profit, and in 2019 is already 1.7 trillion. This suggests that these companies are gaining more and more weight and once again confirms the adaptability of our time.

The relevance of the struggle for the environment was separately marked just the background of the growth of such companies and the transition to greater energy consumption that needs to be obtained somehow. Even a simple transition to 5G networks will require significantly more power consumption. So we have to think how to produce energy without causing harm, and so “failing health” of our planet.

Artem Sutyagin

Source: https://hi-news.ru/technology/14-scenariev-razvitiya-texnologij-ot-avtoritetnyx-analitikov.html


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