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What will trump: 5 goals for the first 100 days
Material posted: Publication date: 23-11-2016
The US President-elect Donald trump outlined in the video is a brief plan of reforms, which he plans to undertake in the first 100 days of his term. The plan was very ambitious, and it can have a serious impact on the global economy.

The main provisions of this program almost completely repeat some campaign promises trump: the output of the TRANS-Pacific partnership, encourage development of American energy, strengthening national security, solution of problems of migrants.

The President stressed that all his actions are aimed at implementing the campaign slogans "let's Make America great again", that implies a revival of the middle class in the country.

The TRANS-Pacific partnership

The most important statement of trump was a promise to abandon the agreement on the TRANS-Pacific partnership (TPP) on the first day of work.

Earlier, the Republican said that the US under his presidency out of a trade agreement between 12 countries, because it is a disaster for the United States.

"I intend to publish a notice of intention to withdraw from the agreement on the TRANS-Pacific partnership as it is a potential disaster for our country. Instead, the US will negotiate bilateral trade deals that will create jobs and revive industry in America," said trump.

The TRANS-Pacific partnership (TPP) is an international trade organization whose goal is the creation of a free trade area in the Asia-Pacific region. The conditions for the establishment of such a partnership was discussed between the Obama administration and countries in the Asia-Pacific region, however, is not among them, neither Russia nor China.

Analysts say that the current situation resembles the situation in the nineteenth century, when the British and Russian empires fought for influence in the resource-rich and strategically important Central Asia.

Despite the fact that none of the parties openly speaks about the "pursuit of trade agreements", and Barack Obama even once said that China is interested in joining TTP, many analysts note that the strategy of the two countries aimed at increasing dominance in the region.


The TRANS-Pacific partnership

The TPP covers 40% of the world economy. Only for American exporters will be cancelled 18 thousand individual duties. Same to you and the company other 11 countries participating in the agreement. However, short-term benefits of TTP will be almost imperceptible. According to an independent rating through the first 10 years the agreement will increase exports of goods and services for all members and only $308 billion In 2012-2013, the global trade of goods and services grew on average by more than $1 trillion a year.

The initiative for the creation of the TTP belongs to the United States, the agreement was approved by the US Congress in 1993, and then voted for by 27 democratic senators and 102 Democrat house of representatives.

Obama was not very successful in domestic and foreign policy: the controversial health care reform, unrealized fully plan to stimulate the economy, the strengthening of military forces in Afghanistan and the sharp rise in the number of dead American military, delaying the withdrawal of troops from Iraq, the scandal with Edward Snowden and etc. Troubles and scandals have haunted Obama throughout his two terms, but especially bad was the second half of the second period, when the rating began to decline at the rate of 1-2 percentage points per month. Some even tend to call Obama the worst President of the United States.

Therefore, Obama's long-running project is a project of prestige, he needed him as a personal achievement.

Critics believe that the implementation of the free trade agreement will lead to the outflow of jobs in the manufacturing sector from the US to other countries and competition from countries with low wage levels rise sharply. And this will lead to slowing wage growth and rising income inequality in the USA. All the matter in the strongest services trade liberalization and the abolition of tariff barriers in many sectors.

The share of U.S. exports to the countries of the TPP

The use of the TTP, apparently, really questionable, as former Secretary of state Hillary Clinton, who was a rival trump in the election, also refused to endorse the agreement.

For the US economy, the decision of the trump means a sharp strengthening of the dollar in the short term, just enough to expectations.

Also there is a high probability that protectionist policies will lead to inflation and a General strengthening of the economy at the expense of momentum in the industry. On the one hand, would allow the fed to raise rates, with another – will hit the world market assets.

Energy development

President Donald trump also intends to cancel the restriction on the extraction of hydrocarbons, including offshore production.

"I intend to lift restrictions that destroy jobs in the energy sector, including in the mining sector of coal and oil on the shelf. This will create millions of jobs with high salary," said trump.

Restrictions on hydrocarbon production associated with several factors. The Obama administration has imposed restrictions on production offshore because of the disaster on the rig Deepwater Horizon in 2010, the new rules, according to experts, does not protect the environment but increase the costs of companies and consequently cut production and jobs. According to Exxon Mobil, the new rules will lead to additional costs of $25 billion over 10 years, and drilling in the sea is almost nothing to bring.

By the end of next year, production in the Gulf of Mexico will reach a record of 1.91 million barrels per day. And that is a lot, considering that the main work there started only in 2005.

With 2010 in the region were drilled and completed 175 wells. But 63% could not be drilled, as planned, to use new rules. The cancellation of the new rules will significantly reduce the risks of US oil companies, make them more profitable.


The production of shale oil in the United States

Trump intends to renegotiate the terms of the UNFCCC climate agreement, which was signed by 195 countries. While the outgoing US President has spent six years of concentrated work to reduce emissions. The result was the signing of the historic agreement with China in 2015 to work together to improve the global climate.

According to trump, the US should stop giving billions of dollars to UN to fight global warming and use the money for the needs of Americans, and that population needs development of water infrastructure and the American environment.

Roughly speaking, now the US can get out of this climate agreement, saving billions of dollars and taking off with a commitment to reduce carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere, which will give a strong impetus to the dying coal industry.

But it had several problems: existing environmental regulations to cancel not so easy, but Congress may not give to do it. In addition, most of the problems of coal miners in the United States associated with the global trends, which does not depend on the desires of trump.

To support coal miners, but it will hurt the gas companies have to reform the railway sector, making the delivery of coal more efficient. Ultimately, such proposals can provoke increase in exports of oil and gas from the US to other markets, especially in Europe, where there is already excess. Energy prices will inevitably decline, and the ultimate benefit to us of commodity companies can be quite small.

Cybersecurity

Concerns about cyberattacks, the White house has traditionally been strong in recent years, although current trends do imply the need for protection against these threats.

Trump said that he would give the order to the Ministry of defence and a steering Committee to create an ambitious plan for infrastructure protection of the United States from all types of attacks.

It is not yet clear what will be included in the plan and how much it will cost, but the determination of the President of the United States means that this will be his first priority.

The world economy loses billions of dollars due to cyber crime, and quite a large proportion of these losses in America.

The American officials routinely blame Russia and China, although the evidence is not provided.

In this case, if not to take into account hackers who can really act in the interests of other States, the problem is the usual "crackers" is also not resolved, and their actions lead to very large losses.

Losses from cyber-attacks in 2015

Visa

Donald trump is also going very hard to solve the problem of violations of the law by immigrants. In particular, it will require the investigation of all visa violations.

In his opinion, violations of the visa programs harm the position of us workers who lose jobs or are forced to accept lower wages.

He previously stated that he would toughen immigration laws, and will also deal with illegal immigrants. This is one of the key points of the electoral program, so to move away from him, he is clearly not, otherwise you will simply lose the trust of Americans.

If to take for a basis of his campaign speech, that illegal migrants are waiting for the mass expulsion of the U.S., this will be a special service.

In theory trump would be able to release several hundreds of thousands of jobs for Americans, improve the criminal and social situation in the country. On the other hand, he has to deal with mass protests and charges of discrimination.

It is remarkable that trump did not mention the construction of the wall on the border with Mexico, although earlier it was mentioned that it must be created.

The fight against lobbyists

Trump started a real war against lobbyists. Now he intends to impose restrictions for officials on lobbying activities.

Previously on trump's struck a wave of criticism, due to the fact that he included in his team a lot of lobbyists, insiders from Washington, as well as veterans of the Republican party. Critics believed that these personnel decisions are contrary against the establishment campaign of trump. But almost immediately after the elections, the elected Vice-President of the United States Michael Pence was ordered to remove all lobbyists from the transition team of the new head of the White house.

The plan for dealing with lobbyists is called "Drain the swamp". Trump promises that officials will not be able to lobby anyone's interests for five years after leaving the administration, and lobbying foreign governments for them to be banned until the end of life.

The slogan "Drain the swamp" was used during the presidential race, although he meant the total reform of public administration, as it is now, according to trump, overly regulated.

Source: http://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/77918

 

Tags: USA


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