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If USA strike on Syria - the ruble will weaken, oil prices will rise
Material posted: Publication date: 06-09-2013

On the destruction of civilization you can earn much more than its building, the character of the American novel "gone with the wind". Military intervention in Syria, someone will bring losses, and some fantastic profits. What about in Russia?


All military conflicts in the middle East has inflated the price of oil on world markets. Syria itself the "black gold" and other minerals is not particularly rich. Her wealth and trouble in her neighborhood. Alexander Ignatenko, President of the Institute of religion and politics, believes that if they start military intervention, to flash can the entire oil region.

Estimated foreign experts, the bombing of Syria will bid up the price of oil to $150 a barrel. - Oil is rising on expectations, - says Alexey Languages, Director of Department of strategic analysis of the company "ATON". - Fear has big eyes. While the invasion is only planned, no one is known for its scale and its consequences. Investors usually assume the worst. Therefore, as the history of all military conflicts in recent years, the price of oil first increases and then starts to fall (see chart. - Ed.). I think it will be now. Oil cannot rise indefinitely. Expensive energy will slow down and so barely alive the world economy. Consumption is weakening and prices are falling. Therefore, despite all the wars of the world, crude oil will cost $200 - 250 per barrel, at least in the current economic conditions. Russia honey oil is all. But the short jump of the prices for us, the weather will do.


The idea is that expensive oil has the dollar. So the ruble is strengthening. - But first, the jump in oil prices will be short-term, and secondly, in case of any unrest in the world, investors prefer to hide in dollar assets, says Languages. - So my prediction is the dollar will rise. I agree with this forecast and Maxim Osadchy, head of the analytical Department of the Bank BKF. - Conditions for the ruble negative, he comments. But the Central Bank still have enough foreign exchange reserves to support the ruble. What the regulator does. In August alone the Central Bank spent $6 billion on the ruble collapsed 10 percent%, as rupee in India during the same period. I think the Central Bank will continue to support the currency, but not at any price. Most likely, they will just cushion the fall.


How does all this affect the stock market? - Financial markets will begin a long fall, and if the US stock indices in the worst case drops to only 15 - 20%, emerging markets can survive a repeat of 2008, - says Alexey Pukhaev, analyst from Investcafe. - The volume of military expenses in the operation against Syria could be enormous. According to preliminary estimates, about $1 billion per month. Such spending does not correlate with the desire of the White house to reduce military spending. According to Yazykov, for the US, increasing military spending, on the contrary, a positive thing. Large defence contracts will only encourage the military industry. And heavily in the stock market this story is not affected.

But the explosions of American bombs in Syria, is likely to scare investors in Russia. - The capital will continue to flow away, - says Osadchy. Investors in any military conflict are fleeing from emerging economies. But they will be taken by the injured party, because we are unable to defend your position. In addition, if the Assad regime is overthrown, as is likely, we again will find ourselves with nothing, as happened in Iraq and Libya. Russian companies were either expelled from the market of these countries, or their activity was significantly constrained. Of course, it will affect Russian-American relations. Deteriorating relations with the USA increase the risks of Russia and affect the Russian securities.


But as an attack on Syria could affect the purse of the average Russian? - If to speak about the most immediate consequences, the growth of oil prices is higher revenues. This means a slowdown of inflation, the growth of consumer prices. From a purely utilitarian point of view for ordinary Russians is good. But this will last very-very long, - predicts Igor Nikolaev, Director of the Institute of strategic analysis of company FBK. - And simultaneously will operate, and other factors. The strike on Syria means new uncertainty in the world economy. As here already told, the investments will further decline. And we with them bad. And this can quickly negate the advantages of short-term rise in the price of oil. - If we are not going to participate in hostilities - that's still very unlikely, is some dramatic consequences for our citizens it is difficult to imagine, - says Mikhail Korolyuk, head of investment management of the investment financial company "solid". Well oil will be more expensive for one-two-three months, there will be currency fluctuations, exchange povolnuetsya, but for the life of Russians is a significant effect will not have.



Tags: assessment , Russia , Syria , oil

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